Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[VomKriege]

Germany is absolutely on the same trend as Italy and France for rising daily death tolls, it "just" started later (not to say it's only luck, no hasty judgement here). But they might turn the curve and stabilize at much lower levels thanks to that.

If France is stabilizing, it pretty much followed Italy, just shaving a handful of days off that curve thanks to the lockdown being a bit earlier by a few days (relatively to each country progression). Not insignificant because that's maybe 100 or 200 fatalities a day less... But I still think Macron could have escalated much faster and follow immediately in Italian footsteps rather than closing schools then slowly ramping up four days later to current levels of restriction. Alas...

[VomKriege]

And for those interested, to put some perspective on the French nursing homes numbers : total population in EHPADs ("Housing institution for non autonomous elder people)" is approx 728k in France.

[VomKriege]

Singapore enables a lockdown, too many cases they can't determine the origin of... They did a good job at containment but I guess there's no winning against a virus like that.

The two big national French grades will not exams this year, they will be validated using only the average score of students for the school year.

[Fifstar]

Germany is absolutely on the same trend as Italy and France for rising daily death tolls, it "just" started later (not to say it's only luck, no hasty judgement here). But they might turn the curve and stabilize at much lower levels thanks to that.

Issuing the lockdown a week later than france might have been a very bad decision. And our age structure is even older than france and about the same as italy. Expect to hear more stories of massinfected retirement homes from germany as well. So yeah, the next two weeks will be rough for germany.

[Ghoul]

So our company is in the news for cutting wages and putting staff on furlough after taking a substantial loan out. Staff aren't happy.

[VomKriege]

So our company is in the news for cutting wages and putting staff on furlough after taking a substantial loan out. Staff aren't happy.

Privatize profits, outsource losses to the public. 

I don't know if they mandated it by law but I believe that in France large companies that receive loans/bailouts are told "strongly" they need to cap upper management wages and forego dividends for the moment.

[Nintex]

Depends on what research shows, particularly further studies on Chinese stats and follow-up bloodwork of Chinese recoveries after the 3 or whatever month mark.

I'm hoping the Oxford model turns out to be correct.



It may be wishful thinking, but man, that would be sweet right now..

Gonna be interesting when the 15 minute fingerprick tests are being used widespread to test the general public.

This is going to sound weird, but I have had a strange heaviness in my chest for a week or two, but otherwise I feel fine. Most likely just psychosomatic, but it would be pretty cool to find out that I've had it all along and had no symptoms and can go back to a more normal life.

I had a prolonged sore throat in January, which is really rare as far as my usual flu symptoms go. I recall making some posts here about feeling sick despite getting a flu shot.
Co-workers and friends also complained about the same thing. A flu that they recovered very slowly from, feeling fatigued and a sore throat.

Some honey in my tea, steam showers and regular flu and fever drugs fixed it for me back then. But ever since COVID-19 became a thing I keep wondering if I already had some mild form of it.

[VomKriege]

I'm not super hopeful we'll find out that large segments of the population already had it, that some sort of herd immunity is well underway and that it was somehow doing massive rounds in November or whatever. Even with all the casual dismissiveness, I think health professionals would have noticed if pneumonia cases started getting out of order while China was battling with the disease.

It doesn't seem that the stats from the countries who tested more per capita point to this (though it's still a limited sample and not exactly a random sample) so far, but maybe I'm wrong.

Even assuming the death rate is something like 0,1% in reality it works back to 10 millions infected in Italy and Spain at the moment which is respectively... 15% and 25% of the population ?

[Beezy]

anyway, some reading re: obesity and complications with respiratory tracts
https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueOffMyChest/comments/ftnh71/healthy_fat_is_not_a_thing_coronavirus_is_further/

I've been wondering about this and this seems to confirm my thoughts. A lot of people in the US are really fucked if they get this virus.

[VomKriege]

The Paris Police Prefect had to apologize for saying (paraphrasing) "It doesn't take a genius to know that the people that are ill today are those that didn't respect the lockdown rules early on."

 

[Ghoul]

So our company is in the news for cutting wages and putting staff on furlough after taking a substantial loan out. Staff aren't happy.

Privatize profits, outsource losses to the public. 

I don't know if they mandated it by law but I believe that in France large companies that receive loans/bailouts are told "strongly" they need to cap upper management wages and forego dividends for the moment.

They’re being very careful in what they say the loan is for. I wish I could link it but ehh I know people are watching out for stuff being posted at the moment after people commented as directors. Gotta protect my ass at this point as it looks like they’re looking for reasons to lay off staff

[VomKriege]

Maybe I'm premature but BoJo and his cabinet failed the UK.

[TakingBackSunday]

if we have to stay at home for the rest of the year 

I can't take that shit

[VomKriege]

Healthcare head of French Great East region confident they'll curb the peak "before April 25th" even if they're walking the razor's edge still.

6266 have been freed of French prisons (under a variety of parole regimes), bringing down the inmate population down to 66k+. One inmate and one guard died of COVID19 so far, positive cases are not too worrying for the moment.

And just like that, in two weeks, half of the prison overcrowding that has been going on for years has been slashed...

Some associations are pushing to loosen further conditions so that more people can be let go.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/jc_bradbury/status/1246104667182059522
https://twitter.com/jc_bradbury/status/1246109368908763141

[shosta]

Edit: NVM this is going straight to the bad vibes thread. Also there's so much more

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245822180694212609
https://twitter.com/alekswis/status/1245992604665339904
https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/1246118175218880515
This is from Thursday. Friday's update not there yet.

[Great Rumbler]

Update on Oklahoma stats:

COVID-19 Oklahoma Test Results

Positive (In-State): 879
Positive (Out-of-State): 2
Negative*: 1,265
Hospitalizations: 257
Deaths: 34

*Negative testing results are only from the State Public Health Laboratory and do not include private laboratory negative results.

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/CityCristinaH/status/1246116176922542081

[Madrun Badrun]

Not surprising, really don't get all this stink about not releasing the models. 

[Leadbelly]

Those US numbers are crazy. It's gonna hit a million before you know it. Well, no doubt it is in the millions already, but in terms of reported cases.

Edit: That said, the US had a slow start, but they are testing more than anyone right now. That may account for some of it.

[Madrun Badrun]

Coronavirus: Trump asks medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada

https://globalnews.ca/news/6772979/coronavirus-3m-n95-respirators-trump-canada/

U.S.-based company 3M said Friday that it has been asked by the Trump administration not to supply N95 respirators to Canada amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the Minnesota-based company to produce and sell as many medical-grade masks as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) says it needs. He invoked the Defence Production Act in order to speed up the distribution of masks.

“The administration also requested that 3M cease exporting respirators that we currently manufacture in the United States to the Canadian and Latin American markets,” a statement from the company read.

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/NatureMedicine/status/1246036430629081096

[Nintex]

Coronavirus: Trump asks medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada

https://globalnews.ca/news/6772979/coronavirus-3m-n95-respirators-trump-canada/

U.S.-based company 3M said Friday that it has been asked by the Trump administration not to supply N95 respirators to Canada amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the Minnesota-based company to produce and sell as many medical-grade masks as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) says it needs. He invoked the Defence Production Act in order to speed up the distribution of masks.

“The administration also requested that 3M cease exporting respirators that we currently manufacture in the United States to the Canadian and Latin American markets,” a statement from the company read.

"Hello this is 3M, how can I help you?"

"You only sell to Mr. Trump now 3M, you hear? Don't make us come over there and break a few bones Paulie. You'll be sorry if you keep selling to these goddamn Canadians wise guy"

"I'm sorry, who is this? This is the 3M company service desk, Alice speaking, there is no Paulie working here sir"

"Yeah, that's what I would say smug. Paulie is hiding there ain't he, tell that coward he better get those masks for Mr Trump beautiful or he'll be sorry you hear"

[Great Rumbler]

[james]

https://twitter.com/NatureMedicine/status/1246036430629081096

I for one am shocked that a medical device designed to prevent the spread of infectious diseases is in fact useful in preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

Let's line up all the idiots who said otherwise and lobotomize them

[TakingBackSunday]

(Image removed from quote.)

at least the deaths don't seem that bad...

who am I kidding, that shit sucks

[Flannel Boy]

(Image removed from quote.)

It's probably a lot worse.



edit: What's up with Cali?

[Flannel Boy]

Cali is a bit of a logistical nightmare I imagine;  massively spread out population wise.

Never been west of Winnipeg, but don't most Californians live in urban centers (95%)? Over half the population live in just two metro areas.

[Raist]

https://twitter.com/NatureMedicine/status/1246036430629081096

I for one am shocked that a medical device designed to prevent the spread of infectious diseases is in fact useful in preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

Let's line up all the idiots who said otherwise and lobotomize them

I don't think anyone argued that face masks worn by people who are infected and symptomatic are useless. They're obviously helpful, which is what this article shows.

[stufte]

Neat.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1245966552307888131

[Leadbelly]

I notice Ethan is back to making videos again. I guess because being stuck at home means he has nothing else to do. lol

[stufte]

I notice Ethan is back to making videos again. I guess because being stuck at home means he has nothing else to do. lol

holy shit, the religious cunts at the end of that video need to be wiped off the face of the fucking earth.

[Leadbelly]

Yeah. Proper snake oil salesmen.

[Pissy F Benny]

Can't say I'm looking forward to the corona war that will come from this 

[shosta]

(Image removed from quote.)

this will be included in the declaration of the jdpon

So, I've been reading some of the criticism of Bolsonaro lately esp. from left-leaning writers in the US and there's very little appreciation for the fact that Brazil actually can't do what the US or Europe is doing, at least not nearly to the same extent. It's a huge agricultural exporter, it feeds a significant portion of the world just like the Netherlands, and they have huge labor intensive factories. There's a solid 40% of the workforce that absolutely cannot stay home under any circumstances. Not only that, but if they did stop exporting, they definitely wouldn't be able to import the capital intensive goods or medicine that they really need right now. Catch-22. And lastly, they don't have the vast financial resources to just prop up a stay at home population.

That isn't to say that they can't do better than they're doing... Bolsonaro obviously sucks and he's going to get people killed. But it's worth understanding the immense privileges we have that they don't. And contemplating to what degree our luxuries are propped up by their sacrifices.

it's humbling typing this out

[Madrun Badrun]

Ontario finally seems to actually be closing non-essential buinesses.  Really stupid it took this long. 

[shosta]

Some countries will inevitably decide that it's better to sacrifice 1% of the population than have everyone starving (a contradiction in countries that export food, but alas). Others might actually reevaluate the relationship they have with the global center and rationalize their consumption but I doubt that's the norm. In countries like India that inevitably take deaths over depression, I think that will be extremely traumatic - imagine, to finally escape from the long abyss of periodic crippling plagues and famines, to have generations! of relative prosperity, only to be thrown back into pre-modern conditions. It should be unthinkable in the 21st century. And it will be provocative.

[Madrun Badrun]

I'm on the email list of a hospital and the university hospital network due to stuff I did during my masters.  I'm getting like an email every minute from either of these two places and they can get pretty worrisome.  The last one was a mask distribution plan with the underline 'you get two masks a day'.

[shosta]

shosta sr. finally got laid off. called the rental office and they aren't giving us ANY break. these motherfucking bastards

[Madrun Badrun]

Sorry man

Detroit — A city bus driver who complained recently in an online video that a passenger had openly coughed on his bus amid the coronavirus pandemic has died from the respiratory illness.

Jason Hargrove, 50, died Wednesday of COVID-19, according to the head of the city's bus driver union, Glenn Tolbert, on Thursday.

In his March 21 Facebook post (EDITOR'S NOTE: Contains obscene language), Hargrove spoke heatedly about a woman, whom he believed to be in her 50s or 60s, coughing openly on the bus without covering her mouth.

[Madrun Badrun]

'residents'

[shosta]

sorry not sorry to esch mandark and curly, I'm posting guillotines

[EchoRin]

Looks rusty as shit. Be ethical and at least provide a metal sheet that is properly sharpened.

[shosta]

the rustier, the better

[Nintex]

New guidelines for the ICU in case we run out of beds. So you guys get a primer of what the next proposals of Jared Voldemort will include.
It works in stages, we're at stage 2 and in our country it starts to get bad from stage 3.

Patients no longer admitted to the ICU in stage 3:
- Heart failure
- Severe trauma
- Heavy burns
- Severe brain damage
- Cancer (spread out)
- Organ failures
- Failing immune system (or immune diseases)
- People who are wholly depended in their daily care (CFS score 7 (see chart below))
- Terminally ill

If capacity gets even lower, we move to stage 4:
- Patients that match the stage 3 criteria already admitted to the ICU will no longer be treated
- Patients that require both a lung and heart device
- Patients who get a heart attack will no longer be reanimated in the ICU
- Patients who are not in need of daily care but do have less reserves compared to others no matter their age (CFS-score 5)



So in theory you could be admitted as a stage 3, it moves to stage 4 and you lose your place in the ICU.
Grim and dark stuff.

Of course these directions were published just to inform and there's no need to panic ha ha ha

[Madrun Badrun]

https://thinkpol.ca/2020/04/03/no-government-dismisses-airbnb-request-bail-hosts-canada-one-word/

[BIONIC]

But I was told death panels were a right wing conspiracy theory

[tiesto]

And over half of Washington lives in 1 metro area, and nearly all of New York is in one metro area.   

Not saying it's the only reason, but it's certainly much more spread out than the other states at the top of those lists.

They have ~75 cities with at least 100k people;  Texas, a larger state, has less than 30.

Wait, what? Once you go out past the Westchester/Rockland exurban limit, things are really spread out and rural (especially in the Adirondacks), with the occasional mid-sized postindustrial city/suburbs (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany) and some other small cities (Corning, Lake George, Batavia, Plattsburgh).

You might be thinking of Jersey - it's the most "urbanized" state, since you have both the NYC and Philly suburbs taking up the majority of the state. (Though there are still rural areas in western and southern Jersey)

[brawndolicious]

Man even your bureaucrats are direct at explaining exactly how your medical system will fail. This is why you guys have enough time to go crazy with banking and flowers.

[Madrun Badrun]

I'd hate to be a Dutch Twijfel right now, knowing that their time is coming. 

[BisMarckie]

German football league announced today that 13 teams might go into administration.

TFW your team was already broke before the Corona crisis

[Madrun Badrun]

Ontario

Number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19   462
Number of patients in ICU7 with COVID-19    194
Number of patients in ICU7 on a ventilator with COVID-19 140

yikes

[Flannel Boy]

Ontario

Number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19   462
Number of patients in ICU7 with COVID-19    194
Number of patients in ICU7 on a ventilator with COVID-19 140

yikes

I believe the mortality rate for patients on a ventilator with COVID-19 is at least 50 percent, so Ontario's death toll will soon double (it's at 57).

[bluemax]

Am I crazy, or is not having every state on lock down just prolonging this whole thing?

[bluemax]

https://twitter.com/mikebonin/status/1245843238759497729

This after last weekend's markets were apparently packed.

https://twitter.com/dont_growup/status/1245831377980805120

Del Rey is my neighborhood, it is not very big. Its gone from 9 to 12 to 16 to 20 in the last two weeks (maybe less?).

https://twitter.com/dont_growup/status/1246184953127157761

[VomKriege]

Mortality in hospitals stable in France but more nursing home tallies (not complete yet) has now climbed with 1400 deaths in long care facilities, accounting for 20% of the overall total.

New people having to enter ICU has decreased noticeably however. Hopefully as more recoveries roll in next week the load will lighten.

We're hitting 10k fatalities within the week for sure. Who knows how long the tail of this episode will be...

[Nintex]

Man even your bureaucrats are direct at explaining exactly how your medical system will fail. This is why you guys have enough time to go crazy with banking and flowers.

The elderly or people with pre-existing medical conditions are getting calls from their doctors now, healthy or not to ask if they want to be treated if they get the COVID-19.
Warned that chances of surviving such treatment is quite low.

Dat Dutch Directness 

[VomKriege]

Am I crazy, or is not having every state on lock down just prolonging this whole thing?

It's madness. I understand some of it is a flaw by design in federal states (Germany has some disparity between how strict each lander is) but in the US the response has been all over the place while domestic air travel was, AFAIK, mostly going on as normal though I'm sure passenger volume reduced of its own volition. WA only issued their stay at home first policies 11 days ago while some states haven't yet now, but even such a gap could have noticeable effects.

That's why I've been bitching about France escalating from school closures to actual lockdown in 4 days instead of just following Italian policies once they went down that path. Maybe we would have plateaued at 350-450 daily death instead of 550... And judging from Italy and Spain, you stick at that plateau for several days, so that's maybe 500 deaths you could have prevented.

Maybe lower density will help the US ultimately. California's major cities not going belly up would be a big relief too.

[benjipwns]

Had my first dystopian moment at the grocery store. Not from anything about the condition of the store or the people which are always weird so was normal except for the missing stuff. But from the announcements! Rather than the usual music/announcements there's a bunch of messages about social distancing, being limited to select numbers of certain items, regular sale statements, being responsible about touching people or things, hand washing, etc.

But now they all end with "WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!"