The back-channel was allegedly via Ehud Barak and Rahm Emmanuel, right?
I think it's been obvious that Netanyahu's seen Obama as an obstacle more than a partner, and has had a strategy of trying to pin Obama by influencing domestic US politics and of waiting him out. The US is always a big figure in Israeli-Palestinian politics, so it's not unheard of to see if you can get a better deal down the road. A lot of people think that was a factor in Arafat turning down a deal in 2000, cause he figured that Bush would be a traditional GOP realist like his dad and would push Israel for more concessions than Clinton did.
A lot of people feel that Netanyahu's been too blatant in his stealth endorsement of Romney. Conventional wisdom has been that an Israeli prime minister can not survive having a bad relationship with a US president; Yitzhak Shamir and Netanyahu himself were seen as weakened by their clashes with Bush Sr. and Clinton. So Bibi was betting that the politics had changed enough that this isn't true anymore and he might not be wrong. But Ehud Barak has taken pains to praise the current administration and to downplay their disagreements as inevitable friction in an otherwise important relationship. So if Barak's giving this message, it might be coming from him more than from Netanyahu.
Plus you've got the general context of this. AIPAC's become more influential in the last couple decades and has allied with fundamentalist Christian groups just as Israel's domestic politics have moved towards the right and hawkishness (fueled by wave of ex-Soviet immigrants after the collapse of the USSR and a higher portion of orthodox Haredim). As much as both parties pay tribute to the US-Israel alliance, Zionism's becoming less flexible in Israel and more associated with right-wing politics in America. So maybe Bibi wants to reward the GOP for their devotion, but then he runs the risk of damaging the relationship between the two countries and turning it into more of a relationship with a single party within the US (which traditionally isn't a great way to do diplomacy for obvious reasons).
Also, AIPAC's been waaaaaaaaay more quiet and neutral than Bibi, probably because they understand that opposing a winning presidential candidate 1) means having a sitting president resenting you, and 2) lets everybody know that they don't need your tacit endorsement to win.
tl;dr Netanyahu's an asshole who's probably going to push the boundaries as much as he can, but his strategy doesn't have the support of all or even most Israeli and American Jews, who think he's unnecessarily risking their status with the world's only superpower and their only real ally.
PS Ironically, the constant barking at Iran from Netanyahu and folks like him have made it so
Iran doesn't take their threats seriously anymore. Good jon, guys.
