Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[team filler]

[benjipwns]

[VomKriege]

Italian authorities are starting to mention transitioning to a new phase. It's not yet all detailed but will involve more masks, at least. And the lockdown will continue, though perhaps eased for some industries, until May 1st.

It's soon going to be the time to have a real talk about how we can resume some sort of democratic life in a world where public gatherings are not coming back for a few months.

[Nintex]

The world after corona will be under the control of the people who now have the money and the power.

[Rufus]

https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2020/234-michael-lewis-updated

Another chance to hear the prophetic interview we recorded with Michael Lewis late last year, when he warned about the risks to us all of what the Trump presidency was doing to the capacity of the American state to cope with a disaster.  David and Helen reflect on how that warning looks today and what it means for the fate of Trump's presidency and for the future of American politics.

Here's a slap on the thigh to distract you from a headache.

[Fifstar]

Judging from 7-day averages, germany's daily new infections seem to be linear since about 5 days. Seems like banning of mass events and closing of schools already had some effect. The lockdown (which went into effect on 22.3) should slow the growth even more this week like it happendend already in other european countries.

[Ghoul]

lmao, someone on daytime tv is having a full on crying mess breakdown 

[VomKriege]

French authorities are now pivoting their position on masks.

O RLY ?

Feeding citizens an half lie because they couldn't own to their failings is not the worst thing happening now but it's pretty aggravating.

[Potato]

https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2020/234-michael-lewis-updated

Another chance to hear the prophetic interview we recorded with Michael Lewis late last year, when he warned about the risks to us all of what the Trump presidency was doing to the capacity of the American state to cope with a disaster.  David and Helen reflect on how that warning looks today and what it means for the fate of Trump's presidency and for the future of American politics.

Here's a slap on the thigh to distract you from a headache.

Without being an expert in US politics, I would hazard a guess that it would take more than 3 1/2 years to destroy a country's capacity to respond to a disaster and your problems began decades ago.

From the outside, the US has been shit at responding to disasters for a long time. Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Maria are two examples where the US disaster response capacity was shown to be inadequate at best.

[Don Rumata]

French authorities are now pivoting their position on masks.

O RLY ?

Feeding citizens an half lie because they couldn't own to their failings is not the worst thing happening now but it's pretty aggravating.

Lombardy is also requiring mandatory masks (or at least face protection) for all people going outside.
The whole west kept flip flopping on the necessity of masks, to be honest.

[VomKriege]

French authorities are now pivoting their position on masks.

O RLY ?

Feeding citizens an half lie because they couldn't own to their failings is not the worst thing happening now but it's pretty aggravating.

Lombardy is also requiring mandatory masks (or at least face protection) for all people going outside.
The whole west kept flip flopping on the necessity of masks, to be honest.

Yeah, it seems it was pretty much general except in some Central Europe countries who incited the public to make their own. It was painfully transparent they were covering their asses from a public debate over the matter since shortages were so debilitating everywhere even for healthcare workers. It's only half a lie because masks are not a miracle solution that is still debated and some shortages were probably inevitable even if preparedness had been better across the board but the self serving infantilization of the crowds (while every government is bullhorning that we must be responsible) is a bit disgusting. Make your case, cowards.

[Svejk]

[Nintex]

Every country is responding exactly on brand

China: Lies about the numbers, users their authority to appear in control, all medical equipment is busted

USA: Thinks it can't reach them, bungles the first response, appeals to patriotism to rally their troops and resources to an over the top victory despite heavy losses

Germany: Follows the rules perfectly, (but will continue the same course even if their rules don't yield the expected results)

Italy: Completely collapses as soon as the enemy appears

UK: Last one pretending things are ok, sort of muddles through the whole thing while being constantly on fire

Iran: Blames the Jews and USA

The Netherlands: Arrogantly claims to be well prepared', tells everyone else what to do, turns out to be totally unprepared in practice

Greece: Having a skirmish with the Ottomans

[Fifstar]

French authorities are now pivoting their position on masks.

O RLY ?

Feeding citizens an half lie because they couldn't own to their failings is not the worst thing happening now but it's pretty aggravating.

Lombardy is also requiring mandatory masks (or at least face protection) for all people going outside.
The whole west kept flip flopping on the necessity of masks, to be honest.

Yeah, it seems it was pretty much general except in some Central Europe countries who incited the public to make their own. It was painfully transparent they were covering their asses from a public debate over the matter since shortages were so debilitating everywhere even for healthcare workers. It's only half a lie because masks are not a miracle solution that is still debated and some shortages were probably inevitable even if preparedness had been better across the board but the self serving infantilization of the crowds (while every government is bullhorning that we must be responsible) is a bit disgusting. Make your case, cowards.

I'm torn on this issue. On the one hand it's aggravating tht they covered their asses on the other hand you know preppers would have killed the market for masks completly (and and our hospitals would be even more fucked than they already are). What's weird how it seems almost every western countries got caught with their pants down regarding this issue.

On a related note, it's a bit weird how our scientists (who on the whole seem to do a great job here) seem to downplay lots of the actions asian countries apllied.

Masks at best will protect other people if you'Re infected yourself!
Nobody knows if a smartphone app would change anything.
We don't know if public temperature checks are useful.

Like, I get it, there is no way to test those actions in a controlled environment and I'm no fan of doing things for the sake of things. But it feels a bit like their ego is hurt that the asian world already has some good measures in place so everything is downplayed that is not coming from typically western pov.

[Don Rumata]

The app thing still is sort of questionable, the breaches of privacy aren't really just a made up boogieman, and whether you want to sacrifice it or not isn't that simple of a question.
Masks though, it's pretty obvious that they were only a net positive, even if the issue you mentioned (avoiding hoarding) was a reasonable worry.

[VomKriege]

If no supplies for the general public, don't sell them to the general public, requisition stocks and have a new culpa about it. You're probably going to get roasted by your constituency for it, but heh them's the breaks. France did the requisition part. Black market appeared overnight but you probably cannot prevent that anyway.

Like you said, I wouldn't discard the idea that there's a tinge of wounded pride with regards to punditry about the efficiency of some methods used by the wealthiest Asian countries.

[Pennywise]

There's an interview virologist in Germany that's doing a huge study in the big hotspot Heinsberg. That's where the big outbreak happened here.
Some interesting points :

spoiler (click to show/hide)

TIME ONLINE: Right after the outbreak in Heinsberg began in February, you already examined households of infected persons. Are you doing that again now?

Streeck: Yes, starting on Tuesday the hygienists will go into the households of the people we tested positive. There they will collect air and wipe off remote controls and door handles. We have already taken samples in 70 households, but we want a larger sample, although I can imagine what the tests will show.

TIME ONLINE: What?

Streeck: We found viruses on objects or doorknobs. Even once in the toilet water when someone had diarrhea. ...but in no case have we been able to grow intact viruses from them. That at least indicates that most people do not get infected via surfaces. But we have now refined the methodology. I'm sure we'll be able to make more sophisticated findings.

TIME ONLINE: Let's talk about the symptoms you've seen in infected people. You were one of the first to describe an almost complete loss of smell and taste. Are there any other new findings?

Streeck: Our data so far shows: About one third of patients have diarrhea, even for several days. This is more than previously assumed. In addition - we haven't noticed this ourselves yet, but we have heard it before - deafness and dizziness can probably occur. All these things were not taken into account at the beginning because they do not fit into a respiratory disease.




TIME ONLINE: An important question will be how the virus is transmitted in the first place. Shops and businesses are closed, people are being told to stay home. And you recently sat with Markus Lanz and said that so far no infections have been detected in hairdressers, when driving the bus or when shopping. Are the measures too harsh?

Streeck: If there are still individual transmissions, for example in the supermarket or at the hairdresser, that's not good, but it's not a big problem either. It has always been said that our aim is not to contain the virus completely, but to remain below the capacity limits of hospitals. We would not be able to contain the virus if we did not want to sit at home for two or three years. Besides, it is really time we referred to data.

TIME ONLINE: What do you mean?

Streeck: Our preliminary data at least indicate that the virus is not transmitted via surfaces but rather through close contact. And the case near Munich, the first in Germany, points in a similar direction. During her visit, the employee of the automotive supplier from China only infected colleagues with whom she had worked very closely. There was no transmission in the restaurant, the taxi driver was not infected and nobody on public transport. And this despite the fact that this woman seems to have been highly infectious. 

[close]

[VomKriege]

https://twitter.com/GPIngersoll/status/1247156041034412032

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/WUHANCORP/status/1247163653775937536

[Madrun Badrun]

As are most things.  Just look at India. 

spoiler (click to show/hide)

They should have never left. 

[close]

[Uncle]

https://twitter.com/WUHANCORP/status/1247163653775937536

metal gear solid music at the start 

[Leadbelly]

Pep Guardiola's mother dies after contracting coronavirus

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52173872

[bluemax]

https://twitter.com/samwangphd/status/1247101329752969217

Fun (not actually) thread of the Federal government stealing supplies from states. Such a classy administration.

[Nintex]

According to the organization responsible for patient placement the Dutch lockdown measures should remain into effect until October 31st to keep ICU requirements within the limit of 2500 beds.
They've mapped out what would happen if the lockdown would be lifted on June 1st, the blue dashed line (an immediate increase in ICU needs).
The red dashed line is the ICU capacity.



1 - Social distancing/measures have no effect

2 - Model adjusted with analysis from Lombardy

3 - Social distancing/measures have the desired effect

[team filler]

*asegura la bolsa

[Brehvolution]

https://twitter.com/samwangphd/status/1247101329752969217

Fun (not actually) thread of the Federal government stealing supplies from states. Such a classy administration.

Not sure why this isn't getting more traction. This administration is doing everything it can do to make things worse.

[Madrun Badrun]

I honestly think UBI is a poor tool for virus-aid but I'm glad it's being taken as a serious thing.  I hope we get it too and it stays. 

[shosta]

It's not about the virus. Sanchez is using the crisis to achieve his goals. They recently nationalized hospitals, too.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/samwangphd/status/1247101329752969217

Fun (not actually) thread of the Federal government stealing supplies from states. Such a classy administration.

The masks are going to places that actually need them.

My projections show that you don't need a mask.

I'm here to take possession of your masks.

The states must handle it themselves.

Your governor is a terrible manager.

My data says your family is fine.

FEMA is not prepared, I am.

The President is sleeping.

You don't have to vote.

Congress is closed.

[shosta]

https://twitter.com/HealthUntoDeath/status/1246867678905712640

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/duetocovid19/status/1247003765644898304

 

[Nintex]

Oh apparently Rudy is the one that got Trump on the hydroxychloroquine tip. Of course

Told you all Rudy is the most underestimated character in this series.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1246827899010699270

Listen to doctor Rudy not the bureaucrats in the ivory towers!!!

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1247139727368691714

Trust Trump's gut not science!

[Madrun Badrun]

Just ordered some takeaway cause I'm going crazy eating healthy.  How do people do this shit?

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1247147047490330626



Unless Fauci is planning to write a book I don't think he's going to stay on board with the death cult for much longer.

 

[Ghoul]

blue background and choose multiple blue lines for countries

WTF

[Nintex]

Cuomo just announced he's requesting more hydroxychloroquine from the federal government because there's anecdotal evidence that it is working.
We have a buyer 

Larry Kudlow floats the idea of Corona bonds (like war bonds).

[Madrun Badrun]

[team filler]

 

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/nycguidovoice/status/1247153785593647105

[Madrun Badrun]

"Boy, I sure do love living in Canada which is way better than our Southern neighbor at social welfare!"



(Image removed from quote.)

"Boy, I sure do love living in Canada which is way better than our Southern neighbor at social welfare!"



(Image removed from quote.)

The difference is, I'm pretty sure the government underestimated the number of people who would not be covered by CERB, rather than willful neglect and I'd expect this to be rectified and post-dated now that it become a known issue (people were really just figuring out the details last week, and I just heard of the 1/3 not being covered about Friday).  Also, the people making up this group seem to be long-term unemployed and students.  Not saying that they are not in critical need of income but my guess is they are in less need than people who have an unexpected loss of income because of this. 

from today https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/trudeau-says-help-coming-for-students-unable-to-find-summer-jobs-1.4883310

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-covid19-benefits-trudeau-1.5523052

[VomKriege]

Cuomo just announced he's requesting more hydroxychloroquine from the federal government because there's anecdotal evidence that it is working.
We have a buyer 

Larry Kudlow floats the idea of Corona bonds (like war bonds).

To be fair, there's evidence that Hydroxichloroquin + Antibiotics is already being prescribed by many physicians for confirmed / suspected COVID19 (I won't find the tweet but some healthcare think tank or network polled several hundreds doctors in Asia, Europe and the Americas). It's cheap, readily available, the effects are well understood (or at least compared to all the other medication seriously considered at this point), there's been studies (too small and inconclusive but pushed by a famous French specialist)... With medical supervision it's pretty low risk. Between that or nothing, I guess some physicians prefer the former.

The issue is more that Trump is throwing any caution into the wind and suggesting that people just go and take it without consulting with a doc.

[Madrun Badrun]

Alberta just used the pandemic to give it's self a ton of new powers

https://www.jccf.ca/alberta-government-gives-itself-sweeping-new-powers-to-create-new-laws-without-legislative-assembly-approval/?fbclid=IwAR0wXvb8CpQTiKNhJMdNCQGswCn605tNV4ATp5ynnWKnwcLHHoNPfjNCcGM

Watch them pass insane oil laws

[Uncle]

The issue is more that Trump is throwing any caution into the wind and suggesting that people just go and take it without consulting with a doc.

is that even widely possible, though

that's what I've been wondering, can you wander into a pharmacy and say "give me that"

I know at least one person has died from taking it but that could be a one off case of someone with easy access to it

don't drugs like these usually have to be prescribed?  is it over the counter?

[VomKriege]

The whole Hydroxichloroquin thing is a massive controversy in France, Prof. Raoult is all in on this since February but several other big names in the medical field (including a former Health Minister) are now advocating for his treatment to be generalized. Everyone concede that we don't have any large studies to be certain, and that it's probably less useful for severe cases (basically once it's a pneumonia, reducing the viral load doesn't help the patient), but they believe it could be useful if given at the onset of symptoms.

Official position has been not to burn stages in the process but between the bitter preexisting personal feuds among the high medical caste & Raoult becoming a meme for every kook and conspiracy theorists on France it's all a bit of a shitstorm.

[shosta]

odd how weirdly accurate Contagion was

[stufte]

odd how weirdly accurate Contagion was

Except for the competent US government response.

[stufte]

Right down to the having Prom at home... and graduation, etc.

[VomKriege]

The issue is more that Trump is throwing any caution into the wind and suggesting that people just go and take it without consulting with a doc.

is that even widely possible, though

that's what I've been wondering, can you wander into a pharmacy and say "give me that"

I know at least one person has died from taking it but that could be a one off case of someone with easy access to it

don't drugs like these usually have to be prescribed?  is it over the counter?

Plaquenil, which is the French name of the only variant (used for certain treatments) available here, was over the counter until January 2020. The French Medication Agency argued last October that while common, it was still potentially toxic and should be only be delivered with a prescription.

I wouldn't know elsewhere but it's possible it's still over the counter in places. I think the US poisoning case was a couple who found some aquarium cleaner that had Chloroquin as a component ? But I believe the ones in Nigeria and France were people who got hold of the medication.

[Raist]

The issue is more that Trump is throwing any caution into the wind and suggesting that people just go and take it without consulting with a doc.

is that even widely possible, though

that's what I've been wondering, can you wander into a pharmacy and say "give me that"

I know at least one person has died from taking it but that could be a one off case of someone with easy access to it

don't drugs like these usually have to be prescribed?  is it over the counter?

Depends on the country I'd assume, but it can be an over the counter thing, yes.

Some dumbasses started munching on tablets used to treat aquariums, because it often contains chloroquin. Pretty sure the case you're referring to was one of them.

[VomKriege]

French numbers :
Deaths in hospitals mostly stable. New confirmed cases too. Recoveries steady.
More backlog deaths found in long term care home.
New admissions to hospital and ICU trending down significantly.

[shosta]

Right down to the having Prom at home... and graduation, etc.

I think it just shows how predictable everything is. There's a respiratory disease going around and it'll multiply and get worse, until it gets better. That's it! The facts aren't "constantly changing". So why have daily briefings besides to convince yourself you're doing a good job?

I was watching some Kudlow interviews from the end of February. He said the virus was "fully contained" and "airtight"   Just so much wishful thinking. Starting to wonder if we need more autonomous bureaucracies that are given a sole mandate and can't interact with the political part of the administration. Like the FBI. Recallable only by will of congress. Does that violate the constitution?

[Mr Gilhaney]

We're stable enough here now, that we are opening nurseries, kindergartens, and schools for the youngest. Finale exams canceled, and instead the yearly grade you get is the finale. Festivals, sport and concerts and shit like that canceled until at least August though

[Nintex]

Right down to the having Prom at home... and graduation, etc.

I think it just shows how predictable everything is. There's a respiratory disease going around and it'll multiply and get worse, until it gets better. That's it! The facts aren't "constantly changing". So why have daily briefings besides to convince yourself you're doing a good job?

I was watching some Kudlow interviews from the end of February. He said the virus was "fully contained" and "airtight"   Just so much wishful thinking. Starting to wonder if we need more autonomous bureaucracies that are given a sole mandate and can't interact with the political part of the administration. Like the FBI. Recallable only by will of congress. Does that violate the constitution?

Drunk Larry saved the economy with hope and optimism

[shosta]

oh, another thing I noticed looking at graphs again today.



I saw some commentary esp. from NYT that S. Korea's model (aggressive contact tracing without complete shutdowns) was way better than full authoritarian response like China and Singapore but Korea has been stuck at linear growth of cases for almost a month now? Meanwhile after China's second spike, it has been trending way, way downward. Not going to extrapolate too much from it but food for thought.

[Nintex]

China's numbers are bogus even Iran is calling them out on it.
They called the Chinese numbers a 'sick joke' or something to that effect.

Talking about graphs, something looked off at the graph the US showed that I quite couldn't put my finger on but I figured out what bothered me.
Each country has these graphs with the same 3 elements: trend with measures, trend with no measures and the ICU capacity line (the reason why you need the measures to 'flatten the curve').
In the US it was just: 100k - 240k deaths and 2.2. million deaths and no mention of the ICU capacity. 

[VomKriege]

oh, another thing I noticed looking at graphs again today. I saw some commentary esp. from NYT that S. Korea's model (aggressive contact tracing without complete shutdowns) was way better than full authoritarian response like China and Singapore but Korea has been stuck at linear growth of cases for almost a month now? Meanwhile after China's second spike, it has been trending way, way downward. Just food for thought I think.

Well, not to be that guy but China's numbers, you know... And I'm far from being rabid about it.

Doesn't detract from the fact that even the best containment strategy "only" help to plateau at lower levels the infection.

[shosta]

We have some graphs with that stuff... let me see if I can find it again for you...

edit: here you go nintex. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Right now there's an expected shortfall of like 30,000 beds. Many of those have the potential to be deaths in excess of the mortality rate * total infected. 

[Mandark]

I think the logarithmic scale on that graph doesn't do South Korea any favors.

Plateauing at ~100 cases sounds pretty good right now!

[james]

oh, another thing I noticed looking at graphs again today.



I saw some commentary esp. from NYT that S. Korea's model (aggressive contact tracing without complete shutdowns) was way better than full authoritarian response like China and Singapore but Korea has been stuck at linear growth of cases for almost a month now? Meanwhile after China's second spike, it has been trending way, way downward. Not going to extrapolate too much from it but food for thought.

Who that little grey dude on the far bottom left that sort of stopped

We should do that

[Nintex]

Those are the cruise ships?

Right now there's an expected shortfall of like 30,000 beds. Many of those have the potential to be deaths in excess of the mortality rate * total infected. 

Jared will soon take control of the bed sheet and pillow supply with the MyPillow guy to make sure that shortage absolutely happens