Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[Ghoul]

Right down to the having Prom at home... and graduation, etc.

Well I mean the south is fairly normal for your dad to finger you at some point so why not make it at your E-Prom.

Also those models I believe South Korea, but sure as fuck don't believe Chinese numbers.

[Madrun Badrun]

The bore should get a boat.  I always knew we'd make a good decreasing line on a graph. 

[Mandark]

SS The Implication

[Ghoul]

The bore should get a boat.  I always knew we'd make a good decreasing line on a graph.

I suggested a boat in the bore crowdfunding thread last year, turns out I was dead on the money.

We'd totally end up pirates though that's the only issue. Especially with Filler wanting to pillage every town.

[shosta]

If you believe China is making up its numbers and covering up deaths, why would it report a spike in new cases rather than just cover those up, too

[Madrun Badrun]

Honestly, this whole thing has made me very interested in the science/art of faking statistics in authoritarian states.   

[Nintex]

If you believe China is making up its numbers and covering up deaths, why would it report a spike in new cases rather than just cover those up, too

I think they're using the same trick everyone else is using for starters.
Don't report the numbers of people who haven't been tested.

France started doing that and now look at their line.
The US also does that, I think. 

In other countries like mine it's like: "Yeah, we know condolences are trending but what's the point in testing someone who is already dead? Don't worry we'll adjust those numbers later" 

[shosta]

i don't want to suck china's dick too hard here but maybe you guys are just experiencing a lot of cognitive dissonance that a country of a billion poor ass rice farmers who allegedly eat bats was able to mobilize its resources and effectively contain/suppress the outbreak while the apex civilizations are still squabbling over distribution of masks and constitutional rights.

[Ghoul]

checks shostas avatar, damn, he was a mole the whole time. I dunno it seems sketchy to me that everywhere else is absolutely fucked, but somehow the deaths there are super low.

Even with them being poor mother fuckers, they're a very dense land? If I'm wrong fine, I'll admit, but it just doesn't add up for me.

[Madrun Badrun]

A billion poor ass rice farmers who eat bats?  What is this 1970?  They are like a billion and a half poor ass rice farmers who eat bats. 

[james]

https://twitter.com/TrafficFailNYC/status/1247018818792275968

[Ghoul]

https://twitter.com/TrafficFailNYC/status/1247018818792275968

This is why the US will be in lock down for five fucking years, you guys are fucked.

[stufte]

Illegal Funeral.

[Ghoul]

https://twitter.com/globalnews/status/1247236995216289796

The fuck?

[Madrun Badrun]

Deep fakes keep getting weirder.  I'm into it though. 

A billion poor ass rice farmers who eat bats?  What is this 1970?  They are like a billion and a half poor ass rice farmers who eat bats.

yes. they are also mind controlled by the ccp using the social credit scores. it is hypothesized that the reason this is the case is because they have skull shapes been propagandized into believing that xi jinping has the Mandate of Heaven (google it!!! source: jeff bezos newspaper) and rules over china like an emperor.

I don't know if you are continuing my sarcasm or not because you failed to like my original post. 

[team filler]

a billion people eating bats  are there factory farms in chiner 

[BIONIC]

https://twitter.com/TrafficFailNYC/status/1247018818792275968

User Banned (Permanent): Anti-Semitism

[Ghoul]

BOJO is in intensive care now...

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52178501

'Netanyahu announces Passover lockdown'

Guess they are bringing the holiday back to its roots. 

[Ghoul]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52178501

'Netanyahu announces Passover lockdown'

Guess they are bringing the holiday back to its roots.

bruh.

[OnlyRegret]

I was watching some Kudlow interviews from the end of February. He said the virus was "fully contained" and "airtight"   Just so much wishful thinking. Starting to wonder if we need more autonomous bureaucracies that are given a sole mandate and can't interact with the political part of the administration. Like the FBI. Recallable only by will of congress. Does that violate the constitution?

Deepstate huh

[VomKriege]

If you believe China is making up its numbers and covering up deaths, why would it report a spike in new cases rather than just cover those up, too

I think Italy, Spain and most other countries following the same curve is good evidence that China's numbers (which they gave with having no point of reference) are representative. I think we'll see that Western countries plateau longer before decreasing, which would be consistent with more lenient lockdowns.

Maybe they lied on the numbers but not on the trends. Let's assume this is true : Why have half a cover up ? If I had to speculate : it would be a major international scandal, blow to their credibility and possibly trigger sanctions if that thing turned into a global outbreak and it became nakedly apparent that China bullshitted the WHO and fed them useless, inaccurate scientific information. If their experts are competent (and why wouldn't they ?) they probably realized at some point that disrupting the Lunar New Year festivities and a lockdown of a visible region was a looming possibility and that the whole world would have noticed.

My (limited) understanding of China is that they probably act in good faith and play the game with multilateral organisations at least up to a point. It makes sense both from an ideological perspective and as a counterpoint to the USA. It's hard to discount wholesale that they could and would minimize a catastrophe though I think there's maybe some prejudice at play when some immediately assume that fatalities must be horrendous, as if China was not up to First World standards.

[Mr Gilhaney]

BOJO is in intensive care now...

So the Russian newspapers were right in the end. Legends

[OnlyRegret]

The media and state do a good job of developing a reflexive sinosceptic response. I mean compare and contrast when people shared Chinese nurses doing a sorta motivational dance to when perfidious albions did the same.

[Madrun Badrun]

If you believe China is making up its numbers and covering up deaths, why would it report a spike in new cases rather than just cover those up, too

I think Italy, Spain and most other countries following the same curve is good evidence that China's numbers (which they gave with no point of reference) are representative.

Maybe, but the issue is that it could just be a scaled-down version of their true data with the same curve. 

[OnlyRegret]

Boris is only 55 

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1247241845387735043

[VomKriege]

If you believe China is making up its numbers and covering up deaths, why would it report a spike in new cases rather than just cover those up, too

I think Italy, Spain and most other countries following the same curve is good evidence that China's numbers (which they gave with no point of reference) are representative.

Maybe, but the issue is that it could just be a scaled-down version of their true data with the same curve.

Maybe, maybe not. Finding out isn't exactly a priority at the moment for anyone though and it's pretty immaterial to every national efforts to keep this under control.
There's some controversies around the scientific data given and the quality of medical supplies they're shipping but overall the impression is that China gave ample warning and that the blame for lack of preparedness lies on the countries caught with their pants down late February / early March.

[shosta]

Boris is only 55 

he's also fat as shit

[Uncle]

missed the reports about the number of urns of the dead signifying a much higher death toll?

[Madrun Badrun]

No, but the urns are not really solid evidence. 

If you believe China is making up its numbers and covering up deaths, why would it report a spike in new cases rather than just cover those up, too

I think Italy, Spain and most other countries following the same curve is good evidence that China's numbers (which they gave with no point of reference) are representative.

Maybe, but the issue is that it could just be a scaled-down version of their true data with the same curve.

Maybe, maybe not. Finding out isn't exactly a priority at the moment for anyone though and it's pretty immaterial to every national efforts to keep this under control.
There's some controversies around the scientific data given and the quality of medical supplies they're shipping but overall the impression is that China gave ample warning and that the blame for lack of preparedness lies on the countries caught with their pants down late February / early March.

Ya, I agree.  I'm hesitant to believe china's numbers but I don't follow the logic that distorting the data puts blame on them.  We could have done a lot better.

[Rufus]

missed the reports about the number of urns of the dead signifying a much higher death toll?

Did anybody ever compare it against deaths around this time last year? They don't just cremate COVID19 deaths, presumably.

[VomKriege]

missed the reports about the number of urns of the dead signifying a much higher death toll?

The strict lockdown put on hold every funeral AFAIK in Hubei or at least Wuhan, including deaths from all other causes, did it not ? Could account for the extra shipment of urns perhaps.

[shosta]

I did and I found that it was well within what the deaths would have been for that year + reported coronavirus deaths. Cremation rate should go up if funerals are banned, too. Best case for underreporting of deaths would be a few extra thousand, not tens of thousands of missing deaths like the conspiracy theorists are on about

[Uncle]

No, but the urns are not really solid evidence.

how are china's reported numbers solid evidence either

[shosta]

how are china's reported numbers solid evidence either

null hypothesis

[Propagandhim]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1247245305583673350


Boris in intensive care now...


Oh, looks like I'm late.

[OnlyRegret]

Boris is only 55 

he's also fat as shit

Huh, so he is. Never got a look at a full body shot, only saw his mug in articles.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/06/hospital-admission-puts-new-focus-on-boris-johnsons-health

Sonia Purnell, author of Just Boris: A Tale of Blond Ambition, said that the prime minister’s usual wellbeing was striking. “By and large, he is remarkably fit considering he is actually a bit overweight,” she said. “He’s not really that active, his runs aren’t very long or very energetic and he is very fond of cheese. In fact, he likes eating a lot – nothing wrong with that – but he does have a very robust constitution. In the time I’ve known him since the 90s, illness has never really come up.”

 

In December 2018, when Johnson was foreign secretary, he said in the Spectator that he weighed 16 and a half stone

What's with these stupid measurements

[team filler]

BOJO is in intensive care now...

a true brexit is about to be achieved 

[Fifstar]

If you believe China is making up its numbers and covering up deaths, why would it report a spike in new cases rather than just cover those up, too

It's not really a spike, it's a logarithmic scale so there is barely anything happening.
I think one theory is that China has only been reporting new cases from people entering the country

[Ghoul]

Boris is only 55 

he's also fat as shit

also did a lot of coke...

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1247243999066406915

[shosta]

It's not really a spike, it's a logarithmic scale so there is barely anything happening.
I think one theory is that China has only been reporting new cases from people entering the country

The area under the curve of that increase is like 350 people! But I agree that compared to 80k total cases that isn't much.

Anyway if there are a bunch of cases happening in secret why have all the lockdowns been lifted for two weeks now (and Wuhan had it lifted recently)? Wouldn't they be keeping the lockdown and then lying about new cases?

[Ghoul]

The British Empire lolz

When people say white people don't like spice I point to the British Empire that invaded lands for spices...

[Joe Molotov]

The British Empire lolz

When people say white people don't like spice I point to the British Empire that invaded lands for spices...

Have you seen what they eat over there? I don't blame em.

[Madrun Badrun]

Just a personal anecdote, but I am very worried that the bore's like-economy is going into a recession and I request a mod bailout. 

[VomKriege]

It's not really a spike, it's a logarithmic scale so there is barely anything happening.
I think one theory is that China has only been reporting new cases from people entering the country

The area under the curve of that increase is like 350 people! But I agree that compared to 80k total cases that isn't much.

Anyway if there are a bunch of cases happening in secret why have all the lockdowns been lifted for two weeks now (and Wuhan had it lifted recently)? Wouldn't they be keeping the lockdown and then lying about new cases?

Didn't they reopen movie theaters before closing them in short order ? Don't take my word on that, but I think I saw that bit of news... And the lockdown in Wuhan has barely ended / is still transitioning out, right ? Maybe they're being extra cautious and doing their due diligence...

[VomKriege]

Just a personal anecdote, but I am very worried that the bore's like-economy is going into a recession and I request a mod bailout.

D3RANG3D already started with the quantitative easing in the sh!tthread. Like economy has never been better !

[Ghoul]

The British Empire lolz

When people say white people don't like spice I point to the British Empire that invaded lands for spices...

Have you seen what they eat over there? I don't blame em.

Jelly eels and mash and liqueur snot? BRITISH AS FUCK. Living in London it is good as it's a melting pot (used to be) for food now at least...

[Madrun Badrun]

I'd give you a like, Vom, but I'm not sure if I'm going to need it or not in a month, so I'm just going to save it for now. 

[Mandark]

I'd give you a like, Vom, but I'm not sure if I'm going to need it or not in a month, so I'm just going to save it for now.

Like-uidity trap.

[Madrun Badrun]

OK that was good.  Here have Vom's like. 

So first they said boris was in the hospital as a precaution.... when there is nothing to be done in a hospital for corona besides getting hooked up to the vent, and now he's in the ICU as a precaution. One does have to wonder what exactly he is doing in there, as a precaution.

Ya if he's in the icu there is something concerning.  I wonder if they had to make a third completely sperate area in the hospital just for him since he's a vip.  TBH hope he gets better, he's not one of the people I want to die. 

[VomKriege]

French Minister of Health promised a "massive test campaign" for at risk demographics. Good. I'll believe it when they'll start proper.

[Madrun Badrun]

James made the wrong bet. 

[TEEEPO]

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840

[thisismyusername]

BOJO is in intensive care now...

Bojo about to break out Star NHS and come back.
ゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴゴ

[who is ted danson?]

Fuck, Dominic Raab filling in for BoJo. Last guy you want making decisions in a situation like his. Dude is gonna euthanize poor Bozza.

https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1109110453073047553

[Madrun Badrun]

Also if it's a precaution, it seems strange that they waited until night time to do it.

[shosta]

Didn't they reopened me vie theaters before closing them in short order ? Don't take my word on that, but I think I saw that bit of news... And the lockdown in Wuhan has barely ended / is still transitioning out, right ? Maybe they're being extra cautious and doing their due diligence...

The lockdown in Hubei ended on the 24th. The lockdown in Wuhan is scheduled to be lifted on the 8th. My issue with the tinfoil stuff is twofold:

1. Either they have it under control or they don't. If they didn't, clearly they would not be back on the path to normalcy. In the province's case they lifted it in the fourth week of March which means that they believed they had almost completely controlled new cases by the first week of March - otherwise they would risk a new outbreak. That looks consistent with the data, as new cases peaks a month ago. So all the timing seems accurate.

2. If they are lying, by how much and why? You don't lie to keep your numbers down 10% or 25%. You lie to obfuscate an entire order of magnitude difference. But I already showed in this thread that the number of urns "evidence" people keep sharing is really consistent with expected deaths for that province + reported deaths in that province. Since the growth rate has been consistent this whole time, and we know that the order of magnitude is correct, are we saying that the government, from the beginning, has been systematically underreporting by some fixed constant? That in January they said "ok everybody, multiply your reported deaths by .75"? So that in the end their numbers are smaller by a statistically insignificant value? Why?

Of course we both know that that's not what people mean when they say "the numbers are not accurate". What they mean is "there's no way they have it under control, it can't be that small, there are a billion people there and it's super dense and the CCP are known liars, I don't trust them." It's just dumb and wrong.

And some people want to split the difference and say "oh, well, I don't trust the Chinese per se, so who knows? We may never find out." Like YOU, Vom. You're doing that! Stop it! It's not helpful and it's not actually the rational opinion.

[Tasty]

i don't want to suck china's dick too hard here but maybe you guys are just experiencing a lot of cognitive dissonance that a country of a billion poor ass rice farmers who allegedly eat bats was able to mobilize its resources and effectively contain/suppress the outbreak while the apex civilizations are still squabbling over distribution of masks and constitutional rights.

The benefits of totalitarianism are tempting, but must be rejected.