Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[shosta]

TRIPON, IT WORKED

[shosta]

Please note: New status matches are not being offered at this time. Check back soon to see when status match will become available again.

NOOOOOO, FUCK, NOOOO!!!!!!

[Flannel Boy]

“Pneumonia kills about 50,000 people each year in the U.S., according to the CDC.
This year, at least 89,555 deaths have been attributed nationwide to pneumonia between February and mid-May.
It tends to follow a typical flu season, coming on in December and peaking in January and February before declining in March to April.
But preliminary CDC data from this year show pneumonia deaths steadily climbed in March to peak in April, mirroring the trend line for deaths linked to the coronavirus outbreak.
Surrounding states are also seeing death counts several times greater than normal:
Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)”

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/gqypwx/kentucky_has_had_913_more_pneumonia_deaths_than/

Apples to apples comparison stolen from resetera:
2018 Feb-May Flu/Pneumonia deaths: 22,908
2020 Feb-May Flu/Pneumonia deaths: 97,676

Keep in mind the flu season was over early this year (for obvious reasons).
https://twitter.com/Magda_Skipper/status/1263742127550484480

[shosta]

so what you're saying is that excess deaths is actually an underestimate

[Flannel Boy]

so what you're saying is that excess deaths is actually an underestimate

I did say that yesterday. Because of the lockdown, there have been 15,000-20,000 fewer deaths "Not By Natural Causes" than usual. This, of course, assumes the lockdown hasn't caused additional non-COVID-19 deaths.

[Tripon]

TRIPON, IT WORKED

Now make the jump from Best Western to Wyndham, then Wyndham to Caesars. Once you have diamond status at both Wyndham and Caesars, you'll just have to make sure you keep status at one place so you can give it to the other. Wyndham resets at beginning of January. Caesars resets at beginning of February. Although both won't reset until 2022 right now.

Please note: New status matches are not being offered at this time. Check back soon to see when status match will become available again.

NOOOOOO, FUCK, NOOOO!!!!!!

RIP, sorry.

[shosta]

Read the next post!

[Positive Touch]

.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/jc_bradbury/status/1265792406609367041

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/derekjGZ/status/1265767628016103425

[bluemax]

I saw something about how Mongolia also did amazing against the Rona.

Also, I'm really surprised at how much more LA is opening up. I guess the economy won.

[ToxicAdam]

Mongolia has the lowest population density in the world.

[Akala]

Mongolia has the lowest population density in the world.

which helps.

also studies are showing it's pretty beneficial to be an island.

[team filler]

[brawndolicious]

Bumper sticker on the rear window? You know that guy doesn't wear his mask right.

[Great Rumbler]

Bumper sticker on the rear window? You know that guy doesn't wear his mask right.

Don't worry, it's just a photoshop. Nobody would actually put that bumpersticker on their car.

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1265885480144470023

I'm not sure why there US figure is so low.

[Ghoul]

It's got so bad in the UK, main adviser got caught breaking lockdown rules.. hasn't quit or been fired and now the GOVT are paying papers to create fluff pieces for them.

Absolutely crazy times. Oh and to top it off the contact tracing workers couldn't even sign in today to work due to technical problems lol so that's also ridiculous.

I think a lot of people here are fed up of the lockdown, especially when it seems any of the political elite can do whatever the fuck they want.

RE: Cummings, he used rules made for people in domestic abuse situations to break the rules, which is pretty sick tbh.

Ahh well, still working, still healthy so that's something I guess.   

[Flannel Boy]

I don't know whether he's Cummings or Going.

[Flannel Boy]

Circles of Shame
https://twitter.com/blogTO/status/1265986506721841152

[Ghoul]

Welcome to hell

[BisMarckie]

SmokyDave looking rough these days

[Mr Gilhaney]

Out of 524 deaths in Denmark, only 24 did not have one or several chronic illnesses already (at least none that were known), and of those 24, there was only 7 under the age of 70.

[kingv]

I feel like the comorbidity thing is sort of a form of misinformation.

It’s technically true, but some of the preexisting conditions are so common that it’s really misleading in terms of how it makes one evaluate the risk. Once you start including “obesity” and “high blood pressure” in your preexisting conditions you are going to skew the numbers significantly. 80 million Americans have high blood pressure, and 160 million are obese. Between those two alone it’s easily over half of American adults that have a comorbidity.

[Yeti]

Went shopping and it seemed like only half the people were bothering to wear face masks. And of those, only half were wearing them correctly. Like, what’s the point of wearing it if you don’t cover your nose?

Got home and my mom sent me a text that my niece got some sort of award at church along with a picture of her going to accept the award from the priest. I responded back “What are you doing in church? Did you forget there is a pandemic?!” And she responded back that there weren’t many people there and they were wearing masks (except in the photo my niece didn’t have any facial covering!) so I texted back that I wished they would take this more seriously and I guess we are in a fight now. 

[Flannel Boy]

Out of 524 deaths in Denmark, only 24 did not have one or several chronic illnesses already (at least none that were known), and of those 24, there was only 7 under the age of 70.

What counts as a chronic illness? Is obesity enough?

That's 1.3% under 70. In contrast, it's over 30% for a state like Illinois (their site has good stats). What can explain that difference?

[Mr Gilhaney]

I feel like the comorbidity thing is sort of a form of misinformation.

It’s technically true, but some of the preexisting conditions are so common that it’s really misleading in terms of how it makes one evaluate the risk. Once you start including “obesity” and “high blood pressure” in your preexisting conditions you are going to skew the numbers significantly. 80 million Americans have high blood pressure, and 160 million are obese. Between those two alone it’s easily over half of American adults that have a comorbidity.

What counts as a chronic illness? Is obesity enough?

People who had been admitted to the hospital due to a chronic illness. So unless you are such a fat fuck, that you have been admitted to a hospital for it, it wouldnt have counted. Not a single one under 60 who died, have not been admitted to the hospital before due to a chronic illness.

Edit: actually just googled it, and seems like obesity is not counted as an chronic illness here.

[shosta]

https://twitter.com/BrennanSpiegel/status/1265119535901732865

https://twitter.com/neoliberal_dad/status/1266031716537376769

lol

[tiesto]

Mongolia has the lowest population density in the world.

which helps.

also studies are showing it's pretty beneficial to be an island.

Unless you're Manhattan or Long Island. 

[BisMarckie]

Or Great Britain

[Tripon]

Coupong been described to me as the Amazon of South Korea.

[Raist]

https://twitter.com/derekjGZ/status/1265767628016103425

Compassion, or being a massive island in the middle of fucking nowhere with one of the lowest populations densities and fully shutting down any travel over 2 months ago.

Who knows!

[Joe Molotov]

Maybe they hit 0 because everyone died. Has anyone checked in on New Zealand lately?

[kingv]

I check on Jacinda Ardens sexy ass regularly thank you.

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/derekjGZ/status/1265767628016103425

Compassion, or being a massive island in the middle of fucking nowhere with one of the lowest populations densities and fully shutting down any travel over 2 months ago.

Who knows!

Australia has had a nearly identical trajectory. Somehow I doubt he'll call the country's leadership compassionate.

[Joe Molotov]

I check on Jacinda Ardens sexy ass regularly thank you.

Hmmm...I'm still skeptical. Gonna need some photo evidence.

[Flannel Boy]

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/23/colorado-suicides-dropped-coronavirus-pandemic-calls-to-crisis-line-spiked/

Colorado recorded a 40% decrease in suicides in March and April as social-distancing policies aimed at slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus kept residents home, according to provisional death-certificate data from the state health department.

[Fifstar]

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1265885480144470023

I'm not sure why there US figure is so low.

Well, their normal per capita is a bit more than half the number of the UK, so there is that.

From a quick glance, it looks like the UK and Italy are currently underestimating their Covid death numbers and the other countries excess death numbers are more in line with their per capita number (very quick glance ;-).

In general, a big country like the US with it's cities spread all over it will probably fare better during such a superspread event driven outbreak I guess. Helps that the outbreak came later in the US, as warm temperatures seem to help bring the numbers down.

[Flannel Boy]

I meant that the FT's excess deaths estimate for the US is low. FT says there are over 60,000 excess deaths, but official state figures have it over 100k and there are over 140,000 excess deaths looking at the CDC data (not factoring the 20,000 fewer non-natural deaths).

[Madrun Badrun]

I wish I could find stuff on excessive deaths in Canada but all I get is stuff from 2 weeks ago without Ontario.  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/excess-death-january-to-march-statistics-canada-1.5568040  though it seems to be good news so far. 

[Dickie Dee]

Doctors’ new coronavirus threat: Patients who refuse to wear masks
Health care workers don’t want to fight the mask culture war, but they’re being forced to.

...

Ryan Shannon, an ER doctor in Florida, describes a patient refusing to wear a mask, even though she was in a room next to an immunocompromised person at high risk of severe Covid-19 illness and death. “She refused, threw the mask on the floor, and proceeded to berate myself and my staff for being a part of the ‘conspiracy and hoax’ that is Covid-19,” he wrote in a May 11 Facebook post.

After the patient’s refusal to follow guidelines, her husband insisted on sitting in the part of the waiting room designated for patients with respiratory complaints like Covid-19, instead of in his car as he was instructed

...

Confusion about when and where masks should be worn is also playing out in other high-risk places that provide medical care, like nursing homes. Sue Krohn-Taylor is an administrator at a 72-apartment low-income senior living facility in the large town of Grand Island, Nebraska, where a resident has tested positive for Covid-19. She says she’s been battling some residents who refuse to wear masks, and is exhausted.

“This week, the son of one of the residents told me I was taking away their liberties by making them wear a mask in the common areas,” she says. “If they were only harming themselves, I would back off, but they are placing each and every resident here, and my staff, and our families in harm’s way.”

[Fifstar]

I meant that the FT's excess deaths estimate for the US is low. FT says there are over 60,000 excess deaths, but official state figures have it over 100k and there are over 140,000 excess deaths looking at the CDC data (not factoring the 20,000 fewer non-natural deaths).

Ah I see. Maybe they just use the most recent data they have and it's not an date range adjusted comparison? Pretty sure Germany doesn't have history weekly or daily excess death numbers, so the most recent data point would be for the end of April. This data seems compared here to more recent data in other countries.

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1266082493188341761

 

[curly]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SummerForPA/status/1265751645616582658

[curly]

https://mobile.twitter.com/politico/status/1266017655577812999

We're fucked!!!

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1266103565870747648

Wow. A bit better than the IHME's model:

[shosta]

going on tv to parade how close your predictions were is such an asshole move. fraudulent, too

[Flannel Boy]

going on tv to parade how close your predictions were is such an asshole move. fraudulent, too

He went on TV May 3rd, and those were his prediction made that day. I don't see how it's an asshole move. His model is showing that deaths will start to rise again at the end of June. Based on his track-record, people should pay attention.


I don't see how it's fraudulent.

[shosta]

His accuracy doesn't matter because there's too much uncertainty in the application of social distancing measures and pretending like it makes him an authority is absolutely fraudulent.

[Madrun Badrun]

Like you wouldn't go on TV and parade around after winning what is basically a gamble.  We know how you did James. 

[Flannel Boy]

His accuracy doesn't matter because there's too much uncertainty in the application of social distancing measures and pretending like it makes him an authority is absolutely fraudulent.

All models are based on assumptions, so all models must make assumptions as to what social distancing measures will be put in place (or relaxed) and how people will adhere to them. To date, he's been making the right assumptions. How is that a strike against him?

"Going on TV to parade how close your predictions were," which he didn't do (he went when the predictions were made) was fraudulent, now making him an authority is fraudulent (strawman).

He's had the most accurate model, so it would be wise to look at it. He could be wrong because past success is no guarantee of future success. He could've simply have been lucky.

[zomgee]

Current local logic: more people die in car crashes so MayBE YOu sHoUD BAn CaRS!

[Madrun Badrun]

We should ban cars, solves the environment and fat people.  Also, I have an idea for a start-up which is like Uber but with rickshaws. 

[Madrun Badrun]

Though to be honest, it's more of a vehicle for my in house documentary about me 'Rick Shaw' and how I grew Rick Shaw's Rickshaws out of the post virus economy to be the number 2 app-based rickshaw service in Ontario and the spectacular posting life I lead.  Now, who wants to be my Carole Baskins?

[Tripon]

Miles Martinez is a lifelong New Yorker who owns a barbershop called Tuft in the Lower East Side of Manhattan that has been decimated by COVID-19.

About 80% of the shop's staff became sick with COVID-19, but Martinez was hit particularly hard: He had to be intubated and placed in a medically induced coma for 17 days, during which he lost 40 pounds.

The barbershop has been closed since March 13 and all of his staff has been furloughed, but they're now making safety plans so they can reopen as soon as they're allowed.

The experience taught Martinez the importance of being prepared for any situation, and he wants people to know that COVID-19 can seriously affect even young, healthy people who think they're invincible.

I felt terrible, had a really high fever every day, and had a lot of trouble breathing, too. It was hard to talk to my family, and the nurses and doctors weren't really telling me what was going on. They only gave me Tylenol for my fever, which didn't really help. At the end of the week, I was finally put on a five-day dose of hydroxychloroquine. 

After days of the same pain, the doctors suggested having me intubated and put into a medically induced coma to give my lungs a rest, for what they initially said would be about five to seven days.  The idea sounded terrifying at first, but after feeling so sick for so long, I realized that it was the best thing for my condition and I accepted it. As soon as I found out that it was actually happening, I FaceTimed with my wife and told her. She was very scared and it was such a strange feeling when we said "goodbye" because neither of us were sure if it was temporary or permanent.

In the very early morning hours on March 23, I was transferred to the cardiac ICU to be intubated and put on a ventilator for 17 days. From what I've been told (although I wasn't aware when it was happening), my path during this time took many twists and turns. There were many days that the doctors and my family thought might be my last, and it became increasingly difficult to identify what was making me so sick. I did not respond to the hydroxychloroquine, and we also went through several other types of medications that did not help my condition improve.

After five days, my fevers wouldn't stop, and antibiotics weren't working.
The medical staff thought I might have a bacterial pneumonia from being on the ventilator for so long. I also had issues with my lungs, kidneys, and heart.

Ultimately, it turned out that my immune system was overreacting and a cytokine storm was taking place in my body — which is when the body starts to attack its own cells and tissues rather than just fighting off the virus. Only after several rounds of intense steroids, I finally began to turn a corner. Apparently I was giving signs that I was "ready" to be taken off the ventilator, and even in my sedated state, I was quite aggressive about making this clear. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/im-healthy-34-old-spent-142610103.html

[Flannel Boy]

Current local logic: more people die in car crashes so MayBE YOu sHoUD BAn CaRS!

The premise isn't true: 30,000-40,000 die in car crashes per year. 100,000-150,000 have died of COVID-19 in a few months, many more would've died without action.
The analogy doesn't make sense. There are thousands of restrictions dealing with cars to prevent car fatalities. Why can't there be temporary restrictions on movement or gatherings to prevent COVID-19 fatalities?

[Tripon]

Current local logic: more people die in car crashes so MayBE YOu sHoUD BAn CaRS!

The premise isn't true: 30,000-40,000 die in car crashes per year. 100,000-150,000 have died of COVID-19 in a few months, many more would've died without action.
The analogy doesn't make sense. There are thousands of restrictions dealing with cars to prevent car fatalities. Why can't there be temporary restrictions on movement or gatherings to prevent COVID-19 fatalities?

People understand the utility of owning and driving a car. What is the utility of contracting the coronavirus?

[Tripon]

https://www.rafu.com/2020/05/nijiya-temporarily-closes-torrance-store-for-cleaning/

TORRANCE — Nijiya Market, located at 2121 W. 182nd St. in Torrance, closed over the weekend due to concerns about the coronavirus and was still closed Tuesday morning.

A manager for Nijiya explained that the market is currently doing a deep cleaning after two workers tested positive for COVID-19. He said that neither employee has been in the market for more than a week, but as a precaution they are doing a thorough cleaning and restocking of items.

He said it may be a few more days before the store reopens.

A sign posted in front of the store reads, in part: “There is nothing more important for us than the safety and health of our customers and employees at Nijiya Market. We have been closely following the advice of public health authorities as well as Nijiya company policies and we are temporarily closing our TR store location due to COVID-19 concerns.

“While we conducted professional cleaning and disinfecting service throughout the store, we decided to close the store until further notice in order to assure the safe and healthful working and shopping environment. We will do our best to reopen the store as soon as possible.

“We truly apologize for any inconvenience.”

On the company website (www.nijiya.com) in March, Nijiya announced that it was taking the following precautionary measures:

“Updated Store Hours: We have updated our store hours to increase the time to restock and clean our stores. We thank you for your understanding.

“Continued Communication: We are closely monitoring the situation, and regularly providing all of our stores and employees with the most up-to-date safety guidance, as recommended by the CDC and other health officials.

“Offering Time Off to Employees: Employees have been asked to exercise increased precautions to safeguard their health and the health of their community, including staying home if they have any symptoms of illness or do not feel well.

“Prioritizing Good Hygiene Practices: We are providing continuous reminders about good hygiene practices and supporting our employees with necessary resources. For instance, ensuring every cashier at the registers has the opportunity to regularly wash their hands.

“Increasing Routine Cleaning: In line with our long-standing commitment to provide a safe and clean shopping environment, stores have increased the frequency of cleanings, paying close attention to high-touch areas such as restrooms, register areas, shopping carts and baskets.

“Suspending Sampling in Store: As this situation has evolved, we have taken increased precautions related to our food and beverage sampling in stores, including our decision to stop the practice until further notice.”

In Southern California, Nijiya also has locations in Torrance’s Rolling Hills Plaza, West Los Angele, Little Tokyo, Puente Hills and San Diego. There are also four in the Bay Area and two in Honolulu.

https://www.rafu.com/2020/05/nijiya-temporarily-closes-torrance-store-for-cleaning/

[Positive Touch]

welp my job called and wants me back on the eighth. for those that have been paying attention, about how dangerous is it to spend all day in a room with 6-10 other people who will probably not do a good job of covering their faces?

[Madrun Badrun]

Can I have your blurays?