Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[Raist]

Can't read the whole thing, it's behind a paywall / login so fuck that.

I'm obviously not saying that the massive uptick was caused by the protests, but when you have such an increase in several states that had loads of protests going on I don't think you can reasonably claim there was no effect at all. How do you even begin to disentangle that.

Having hundreds of people packed like sardines in the streets for hours isn't exactly ideal circumstances. Outdoors or not.

[Madrun Badrun]

Ya, the issue is not whether is spread the virus, it certainly did, it's a matter of net spread, and spread in comparison to reopening. 

I doubt it had a net negative too, but I also don't think it is the main culprit to the current situation - which was a minimal lockdown and reopening too soon and too fast. 

The other issue is can you find the protests as a statistically significant source of an uptick - that I also doubt.  Logically we can say sure, but I don't think there is a way to prove that.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://la.eater.com/2020/7/1/21310136/los-angeles-restaurant-dining-room-closures-three-weeks-covid-19-pandemic-july-2020

[Mandark]

One thing that's clear just by glancing at the county-level data is that whatever effect the protests had it's dwarfed by other factors.

[Raist]

I think the problem with this kind of social """sciences""" studies is that it's always based on a fuckload of assumptions and making up formulas on the fly. Let alone having a proper control of all relevant parameters. I'm gonna guess they didn't ask anyone joining the protests if they also actually lived there, and so on. And stuff like the increase in "stay at home" time is just laughable

In any case, in circumstances like these I don't think the point is "oh but that's not nearly as bad as this or that other thing", because that's just a "rules for thee not for me" argument. Anything that will contribute to community spreading is just real fucking bad.

[Tripon]

The L.A. County health officer stated that the recent protests (Some of which are on going) did contribute to the spread of Coronavirus, but she or the county couldn't give a good estimate because they have stated they don't have the ability to count outdoor events or something to that effect.


Back on June 23rd.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-23/lapd-coronavirus-cases-spike-adding-to-debate-over-role-of-protests-in-spread

Coronavirus infections among Los Angeles police officers spiked in recent weeks, reflecting a broader increase in cases regionally and raising fresh questions about the role of protests in the spread.

Police officials have said that officers were exposed on skirmish lines as they worked to disperse screaming crowds. Protesters say officers recklessly arrested people en masse without wearing masks, exposing not just themselves but others.

In the last week, positive cases within the LAPD workforce jumped from 170 to 206, Chief Michel Moore told the civilian Police Commission on Tuesday.

“This was a 21% increase and is about twice the rate of our historic rate of change over the history of the pandemic,” he said.

L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer recently said it is “highly likely” that the recent overall increase in positive cases is related in part to the mass protests.

Ferrer also suggested that an increase in social gatherings and the opening of more businesses after weeks of stay-at-home and closure orders has likely played a role. Moore also cited such factors.

Los Angeles County officials reported more than 2,000 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, bringing the total number to more than 88,200. Nearly 3,200 have died.

----

The increase in transmission likely occurred sometime around the week of Memorial Day week or shortly thereafter. At the time, L.A. County officials decided to gradually reopen the economy because the data were stable, with no increases in hospitalizations and a decline in new deaths, Ferrer said.

But unfortunately, people and businesses haven’t been adhering to health orders to wear masks in public and stay away from crowded situations. Just this past weekend, masks or face shields were not being worn by workers at about half of inspected restaurants and bars. Officials have also seen examples of overcrowding at public spaces.

“I’ve had an explosion of new outbreaks in workplaces. One that got shut down this past weekend, it had over 115 infections. Again, very little compliance with the directives on how to operate a factory with as much safety as possible,” Ferrer said.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-29/l-a-county-issues-dire-warning-amid-alarming-increases-in-coronavirus

[Tripon]

SACRAMENTO —  Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday ordered tougher restrictions for much of the state, requiring 19 counties experiencing increased spread of coronavirus to halt visits to indoor restaurants, wineries and tasting rooms, entertainment centers, movie theaters, zoos, museums and card rooms.
The governor is imposing the restrictions on indoor activities in advance of the July 4 holiday weekend, when officials fear disaster if Californians continue to ignore safety guidelines and businesses remain open in areas already experiencing significant spikes in COVID-19 infections. Newsom is also recommending the cancellation of all fireworks shows on the Fourth of July in the affected counties, and is urging all Californians to rethink having large get-togethers with friends and neighbors to celebrate the holiday.

“This doesn’t mean restaurants are shut down,” Newsom said. “It means that we’re trying to take the activities, as many activities as we can -- these mixed activities, these concentrated activities — and move them outdoors, which is a way of mitigating the spread of this virus.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-01/newsom-imposes-new-rollbacks-of-californias-coronavirus-reopening

[Mandark]

In any case, in circumstances like these I don't think the point is "oh but that's not nearly as bad as this or that other thing", because that's just a "rules for thee not for me" argument. Anything that will contribute to community spreading is just real fucking bad.

I don't agree. Degree matters, especially differences in degree that look like this, and especially when people and policymakers are trying to sort out which restrictions should be maintained and which we can ease up on.

We accidentally had a natural experiment in outdoor spreading with near universal mask wearing and for once the news wasn't awful.

[Madrun Badrun]

Degrees matter not just for policy but more broadly, political narrative.  Saying both are bad is not correct when your pandemic response is mostly political theater.   In the current state of the US who gets the blame is more important than actual response policy.     

[Himu]

Worried about my dad, he's been running a fever since Saturday. The doctor gave him antibiotics, but they haven't done anything. He's trying to get a COVID test scheduled today, but it might be next week before he knows anything and meanwhile one of their neighbors tested positive.

feeling for you and rumbler and fam

[Mandark]

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/oklahoma

It looks like in OK, they usually don't report any negative tests on Sunday and Monday (one week it's Saturday and Monday).

[Himu]

https://twitter.com/BeccaLodahl/status/1277862893212495873

Jesus Christ, trump. Fuck you.

[Raist]

In any case, in circumstances like these I don't think the point is "oh but that's not nearly as bad as this or that other thing", because that's just a "rules for thee not for me" argument. Anything that will contribute to community spreading is just real fucking bad.

I don't agree. Degree matters, especially differences in degree that look like this, and especially when people and policymakers are trying to sort out which restrictions should be maintained and which we can ease up on.

We accidentally had a natural experiment in outdoor spreading with near universal mask wearing and for once the news wasn't awful.

And my point is that this is a piss-poor study done by social "scientists" who were more interested in a political statement rather than actually doing this shit properly - if that can even be done in the first place. So taking this to make such a strong claim is just dumb.

Maybe they can start with the very basic proper thing to do, which is to check positivity rate in people who joined protests vs. those who didn't, in the exact same areas, over the same period of time. Which of course isn't something one can do by just crunching publicly released whole population numbers from "counties with big protests" vs "counties with not much protests"; that would require some proper understanding of the scientific method.

[Great Rumbler]

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/oklahoma

It looks like in OK, they usually don't report any negative tests on Sunday and Monday (one week it's Saturday and Monday).

It still pretty bad that nearly 10% of the people who attended the rally have subsequently tested positive.

[Madrun Badrun]

Wait that logic doesn't work unless they are explicitly testing people who were at the rally.

[Raist]

Wait that logic doesn't work unless they are explicitly testing people who were at the rally.

I'm guessing that's the case? Cause 350 tests in a day for an entire state seems... awfully low?

edit: looking at the full data in the link Mandark posted, looks like days with very low test numbers have been 100% positive for a while.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/505423-georgia-mayor-orders-residents-to-wear-masks-in-public

[Madrun Badrun]

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1278434066719821824

[tiesto]

https://twitter.com/10TampaBay/status/1276527556825620480

I was going to take that bet from either James or shosta (50,000 US cases per day by Tuesday). Dodged a bullet.

Note to self: Do not take bets and build a wall around Canada.

So... about that

8942 cases?

[tiesto]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-june-idUSKBN2412PN?utm_source=reddit.com

Coronavirus cases more than doubled in 14 U.S. states in the month of June, including California, Florida and Texas, a Reuters analysis on Tuesday showed.

Arizona recorded the biggest jump in cases for the month at 294%, followed by South Carolina at 200% and Arkansas at 179%. Cases also more than doubled in Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon and Utah.

Nationally cases rose by at least 46% and deaths increased by 21%.


Cases increased by less than 10% in June in just four states - New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey.

New York, once the epicenter of the U.S. epidemic, saw cases rise by about 6% in June - the lowest rate in the country - after strict lockdown and social distancing measures were put in place to help bring the disease under control.

I'm a little worried now that we're reopening - my friends actually went to a restaurant and sat inside. I've been sticking to places with outdoor seating and not too many people but wouldn't dare sit inside a restaurant or bar at this moment in time.

[Mandark]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/coronavirus-arizona-reopening-media-distort-numbers/

If anyone wants to get pointlessly mad, here's a piece by Rich Lowry (author of "Where Does Ron DeSantis Go to Get His Apology?") on Arizona from a couple weeks ago.

[Tripon]

The protests were global as well, you'd would have heard exploding cases whenever the protests were large enough to be noticeable. Not just in U.S. cities.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1278337464516718593

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-01/half-of-all-covid-tests-are-positive-in-mexico-highest-in-world

[Himu]

Mom got her test results. Negative.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1278337464516718593

So uh...

this may sound weird but...

please don't use your insurance!!

Thank you!

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1278435371983003648

Don't worry the President is confident it will disappear and they're going to break through bureaucracy

 

[Mandark]

So uh...

this may sound weird but...

please don't use your insurance!!

Thank you!

that's literally the opposite of that story

[shosta]

I think it might be impossible for someone in the Netherlands to understand that the private insurance companies and the (free) coronavirus testing sites are not coordinated at all. It's completely irrational but so is the United States healthcare system.

[Mandark]

it might be that this one guy is stupid

[Nintex]

I can't open the link because the site is blocked in Europe 

[shosta]

it might be that this one guy is stupid

there's no doubt that Nintex has barely breached caveman levels of intelligence but even a regular person from a different country might be confused as to how using your insurance can save resources for people using the free testing sites when everyone is literally using the same supply of tests (which is already technically under the purview of the defense production act).

[Nintex]

I thought McEnany had been replaced already

No, she's actually surprisingly good at this compared to her predecessors.

I would say Trump's best pick for Press Secretary so far.

[Mandark]

I thought McEnany had been replaced already

iirc there's a new press secretary for his campaign, she's the press secretary for the white house

yeah, I know

[Tripon]

Pet peeve, people and journalists really need to stop saying/writing that a person is asymptomatic when you show symptoms.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-01/orange-county-restaurants-grapple-with-coronavirus-outbreaks-as-cases-continue-to-climb

[Joe Molotov]

Mom got her test results. Negative.

Gongrats. Dad also managed to get test results back today and they were negative.

[Mandark]

Mom got her test results. Negative.

Gongrats. Dad also managed to get test results back today and they were negative.

[Nintex]

So you'd think that with spiking cases the US would focus on the pandemic. The only change I've seen is Fox News endorsing masks.

Democrats / Media: "RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA!"
Trump: "We're doing great"

I suppose Mike Pence is on the case? 

[Mandark]

So you'd think that with spiking cases the US would focus on the pandemic. The only change I've seen is Fox News endorsing masks.

Democrats / Media: "RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA!"
Trump: "We're doing great"

asked this before, but what's the point of telling lies on a tiny splinter forum where nobody trusts you to begin with?

[Dickie Dee]

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1278468720147529739

[Madrun Badrun]

It's +48,595 with ~5kish still to be updated. 

[Madrun Badrun]

Not sure we need to imagine.

[Mandark]

Imagine if the rest of the country just....followed NYC's lead with the 3 months of prep time

A couple months ago I was driving myself crazy that the US was refusing to learn lessons from other (particularly Asian) countries.

Now I'm driving myself crazy that the US is refusing to learn lessons from the US.

[Oblivion]

Imagine if the rest of the country just....followed NYC's lead with the 3 months of prep time

what does the rest of the country think they are? batman? 

[Madrun Badrun]

Arizona had a 28.3% positive test rate today.  US passed 50K.  Assuming tests keep up, next week will have a 60K day. 

[Flannel Boy]

Imagine if the rest of the country just....followed NYC's lead with the 3 months of prep time

A couple months ago I was driving myself crazy that the US was refusing to learn lessons from other (particularly Asian) countries.

Now I'm driving myself crazy that the US is refusing to learn lessons from the US.

*looks at China
This is fine.
*looks at other Asian countries
This is fine.
*looks at Italy
This is fine.
*looks at other European countries
This is fine.
*looks at Washington state, then NY, then the rest of the Northeast.
This is fine.

Who could have seen this coming?

+50,277

[Madrun Badrun]

I agree.  It's just going to be a series of hotspots and half-assed responses all the way into January.  What happens when bars get called to be shut down for a third time because they only closed them for 30 days and nothing else the second time?  And people still need to vote in November.  This whole thing is insane. 

[benjipwns]

I'm seeing far less masks on at the store, which is technically still a misdemeanor for another few weeks. Apparently up north nobody is wearing them anymore.

I think some of that is the heat/humidity but also we just really haven't had cases in the rest of the state somehow. It's all stuck in Detroit mostly. With occasional flare ups along the I-75 corridor (which is what runs through Detroit) and Grand Rapids (the second largest city) but seemingly nothing in the capital area.

Another thing is that the rules are all over the place because the governor just rolls back certain parts rather than simply establishing two clear sets of rules. I bet most people won't even bother to figure out what they are and hear that they're lifted so assume they all are. I think the government is just relying on businesses to apply and enforce it themselves. Been weeks since I heard about any outrageous sting operations like in the early weeks.

[benjipwns]

For example of those confusing rule sets, here's the "bar re-closing" rules in Twitter form from today:
https://twitter.com/GovWhitmer/status/1278429107349524481

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1278488571314405376

Sometime in early June, however — after Gov. Gavin Newsom indicated that he would loosen the social distancing restrictions — Lopez said Macias attended a party in Lake Elsinore, about 70 miles southeast of Los Angeles.

Afterward, a friend of Macias who was also at the party contacted him to say he had tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, Lopez said.

The friend told Macias he was aware of the diagnosis when he attended the gathering, but because he was not showing symptoms, he did not believe he could infect anyone else.

The friend advised everyone who attended the party to get tested.

Naturally, Lopez said, Macias was upset. Still, he said, Macias took accountability for his actions as evidenced in his Facebook post.

Lopez said he was unsure how many people went to the party, but that Macias was among more than a dozen people who contracted COVID-19.

Macias visited his sister Veronica, who is married to Lopez, on June 11 at the couple's home, before he was tested. Lopez remembers being concerned for Macias after that visit.

"He did not look right," Lopez said. "He was really sweaty."

Dude got killed by his friend.

[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/DetroitEddie313/status/1278468255208923141

Today is the day that I found out that Kane is the mayor of Knox County, Tennessee.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1278500250039324672

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/PaulTenorio/status/1278508912820596737

https://twitter.com/EW/status/1278471001546919936

[benjipwns]

On July 4, fellow Nineties hit-makers Color Me Badd – best known for their single “I Want to Sex You Up” – are scheduled to perform at Emerald Point.

[Oblivion]

Dude got killed by his friend.

lol owned

[bluemax]

The protests were global as well, you'd would have heard exploding cases whenever the protests were large enough to be noticeable. Not just in U.S. cities.

Don't tell that to all the angry libertarians in California who want the free market to decide who lives and who dies.

[Oblivion]

but seriously, as to the guy that died, why would you go out to a goddamned PARTY when you apparently were following the lockdown orders early on? it seems some people NEED to be told what to do, sadly.

[shosta]

Let's try not to judge people. This has been hard on everyone. I bought more plants yesterday.

[HardcoreRetro]

What kinda plants? My dad got some alocasia and I got a golden cane palm.

[EchoRin]

Even though I don't watch WWE, hasn't Kane not worn a mask for some time now? So that would be in line with his current character.