Author Topic: Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?  (Read 1082081 times)

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Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12120 on: September 20, 2020, 08:33:53 PM »
The fact that Sweden has an enormously high deaths per capita rate means it was not a success. Having a low infection rate right now doesn't mean anything except that people are staying indoors and masks are probably working.

Success, as in, the strategy may have succeeded in what it was set out to do. However, yeah, success is probably the wrong word. The strategy may have worked, is probably more fitting. And the stability may simply be a product of never being in full lockdown in the first place. No one is suddenly coming out of lockdown and getting infected. We don't really know yet.


Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12121 on: September 20, 2020, 08:57:10 PM »
I've been jumped on the whole time in this thread. And I knew the moment I posted it, people would jump on it like it was a chip pan fire.

if I knew we were playing martyr today I would have brought nails

Tripon

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12122 on: September 20, 2020, 09:02:58 PM »
Okay, but what do you want the UK to do now if numbers rise again? Pursue herd immunity?

shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12123 on: September 20, 2020, 09:18:11 PM »
Success, as in, the strategy may have succeeded in what it was set out to do. However, yeah, success is probably the wrong word. The strategy may have worked, is probably more fitting.
Worked at doing what?
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Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12124 on: September 21, 2020, 11:12:06 AM »
Ontario +425

Flannel Boy

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Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12126 on: September 21, 2020, 11:31:39 AM »
My mom says UofS had the highest enrollment ever and has no inperson classed (just labs)

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12127 on: September 21, 2020, 02:35:37 PM »
Success, as in, the strategy may have succeeded in what it was set out to do. However, yeah, success is probably the wrong word. The strategy may have worked, is probably more fitting.
Worked at doing what?

Having a long-term sustainable strategy that allows society to keep functioning with relative normality, while controlling the rate of spread.

In the country I am in, the UK, at the rate the virus is increasing now, we could have 50,000 new cases a day by October.


Also, an interesting article I was reading on the BBC website:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 02:48:43 PM by Leadbelly »

Nintex

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12128 on: September 21, 2020, 02:49:56 PM »
Some Dutch artists and rappers have started a campaign called #ikdoenietmeermee or #imout protesting against the Corona measures and saying they will no longer accept them.

Today our prime minister said that football fans visiting games should 'shut the fuck up' to stop the spread of the virus. (you can now attend sporting events but only if you're silent)
2000+ new cases and double the number of ICU patients compared to two weeks ago.

The second wave is here.

🤴

T-Short

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12129 on: September 21, 2020, 04:41:14 PM »
As other distinguished gentlemen in the thread has pointed out, it would be really silly to consider the Swedish strategy a success at this point. The stated overarching goals of the strategy was to protect the elderly and to not overload the healthcare system, and during the first peak in April and early May it failed quite miserably at both those goals. Also, just because we are currently lagging behind the rest of continental Europe in our infection rates, there's no reason to declare this thing to be over. The flu/cold season hasn't even gotten going yet.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 06:03:37 PM by Hyoushi »
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jorma

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12131 on: September 21, 2020, 06:15:26 PM »
As other distinguished gentlemen in the thread has pointed out, it would be really silly to consider the Swedish strategy a success at this point. The stated overarching goals of the strategy was to protect the elderly and to not overload the healthcare system, and during the first peak in April and early May it failed quite miserably at both those goals. Also, just because we are currently lagging behind the rest of continental Europe in our infection rates, there's no reason to declare this thing to be over. The flu/cold season hasn't even gotten going yet.

Eh, the fact that so many old people died wasn't the fault of the strategy, since the homes were locked down. Death rates would have been the same with a harsher strategy. Can't blame the strategy there, just the execution.
And the healthcare system was strained, but never overloaded.

Also shost, we were never told to remain indoors - quite the opposite actually - and we still don't use masks  :-*
(except that one dude i posted about the other day, obviously)

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12132 on: September 21, 2020, 06:23:56 PM »
As other distinguished gentlemen in the thread has pointed out, it would be really silly to consider the Swedish strategy a success at this point. The stated overarching goals of the strategy was to protect the elderly and to not overload the healthcare system, and during the first peak in April and early May it failed quite miserably at both those goals. Also, just because we are currently lagging behind the rest of continental Europe in our infection rates, there's no reason to declare this thing to be over. The flu/cold season hasn't even gotten going yet.

Which is why I reworded it. It's so funny though because I am just parroting what Anders Tegnell (the architect of this strategy) has said in the articles I posted. I am not actually giving an opinion, I am simply stating what he has said. And so the questions asked could have been answered by just, reading the articles.

Financial Times
Quote
At the outset, we talked very much about sustainability, and I think that’s something we managed to keep to. And also be a bit resistant to quick fixes, to realise that this is not going to be easy, it is not going to be a short-term kind of thing, it’s not going to be fixed by one kind of measure. We see a disease that we’re going to have to handle for a long time into the future and we need to build up systems for doing that,” he says, with his arms crossed tightly to his chest as they are for nearly the entire hour-long interview.

Quote
His dislike of national lockdowns is obvious. “It’s really using a hammer to kill a fly,” he insists. Instead, his approach has been about having a strategy that can work for years if needs be, rather than the constant chopping and changing seen in the rest of Europe. “We don’t see it as viable to have this kind of drastic closing down, opening and closing. You can’t open and close schools. That is going to be a disaster. And you probably can’t open and close restaurants and stuff like that either too many times. Once or twice, yes, but then people will get very tired and businesses will probably suffer more than if you close them down completely,” he says.

The Guardian
Quote
In the end, we will see how much difference it will make to have a strategy that’s more sustainable, that you can keep in place for a long time, instead of the strategy that means that you lock down, open up and lock down over and over again

What you said may be goals, but that wasn't the main reason for the strategy. The main reason for the strategy, in his words, is to have something that is sustainable. A strategy that is workable for the long-term, where you're not constantly having to go in and out of lockdown or drastically change things.


jorma

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12133 on: September 21, 2020, 06:28:55 PM »
you're not wrong lead, sustainability was the entire point of the strategy from the beginning. It was supposed to be able to stay in effect for months and even years. That was pretty much the first thing he said back in march.

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12134 on: September 21, 2020, 06:31:43 PM »
Yeah.

Nintex

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12135 on: September 21, 2020, 06:42:44 PM »
Yup, no flu season yet and already so many cases.

:existential
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Oblivion

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12136 on: September 21, 2020, 07:39:18 PM »
not sure why you're being so defensive

we just asked you to clarify

lol you're not?


...no?

Quote
I've been jumped on the whole time in this thread. And I knew the moment I posted it, people would jump on it like it was a chip pan fire. Seriously though, it was in the news, so I posted about it.


you've been pulling this shit for as long as i've known you. you post various links that support your views on a given subject, stroking your chin and going "hmm very interesting isn't it??" and when people ask you to elaborate, you immediately play the victim card. look at how you responded in the last exchange. we simply asked you to explain what you were talking about and you were like "OH SO YOU DON'T BELIEVE ME AND THINK I'M BEING POLITICAL, WELL WHAT ABOUT SOME OF YOUR PRECIOUS LIBERAL MEDIA ALLIES HMMM?"

shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12137 on: September 21, 2020, 11:30:21 PM »
Having a long-term sustainable strategy that allows society to keep functioning with relative normality, while controlling the rate of spread.

I made this graph for you. It plots percent gdp change in the second quarter* vs deaths per million population, thus quantifying the economic harm vs. public health tradeoff. Country labels are to the left of the datapoint. The one at the very bottom left is Taiwan.



The topology of this graph makes a few things obvious. First of all notice the yawning gulf between countries on the left and countries on the right. Since you shied away from this term and it's up for grabs, I will call these successful and unsuccessful countries, respectfully. Successful meaning "successful at managing a public health crisis caused by a lethal pandemic."

Second, unsuccessful countries employed a variety of different strategies and endured a variety of economic impacts, none of which were correlated. The UK completely fucked up its lockdown and had deaths comparable to Brazil, which had no lockdown. The same thing happened in the US. Sweden has its hands off policy and suffered a health and economic crisis similar to Italy, which had a lockdown and was the epicenter of the European pandemic. To your credit: 1) not trying any lockdown at all does keep the economic damage lower (as expected) and 2) it's better to not have a lockdown than to pretend to do one and fail in an epic way.

Third, let us look to the left. With the exception of Japan which is heavily dependent on western imports, countries with successful public health policies had way more manageable economic shocks. A successful coronavirus policy is far and away the best economic policy. That doesn't mean lockdowns. I'm not an expert but I know South Korean life has really been business as usual except for the occasional nightclub having to get shut down. China had a now infamous lockdown in Wuhan but it lifted restrictions in other provinces quite quickly. I think Japan never really locked down or took it to heart. There were a variety of responses but in every one of these countries trust in the government was high, masks are ubiquitous, and a smart testing policy was put in place to enable precision interventions. Every country on the left has a "sustainable" policy.

Sweden is a failure. Writing an op ed in the guardian saying "maybe it's time to learn to live with the virus" is equivalent to the author saying he wants to give up. That's it. Looking at these two types of countries, successes and failures, and listening to the discourse in the countries on the right, makes me feel like an insane person. A different future was possible.

EDIT: I think to be totally fair I should have included Q1 contractions as well but different countries had outbreaks at different times and it was always going to be apples to oranges in some sense.

*Except China, which had the greatest change in the first quarter
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 11:45:33 PM by shosta »
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BIONIC

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12138 on: September 22, 2020, 05:42:55 AM »
Having a long-term sustainable strategy that allows society to keep functioning with relative normality, while controlling the rate of spread.

I made this graph for you. It plots percent gdp change in the second quarter* vs deaths per million population, thus quantifying the economic harm vs. public health tradeoff. Country labels are to the left of the datapoint. The one at the very bottom left is Taiwan.



The topology of this graph makes a few things obvious. First of all notice the yawning gulf between countries on the left and countries on the right. Since you shied away from this term and it's up for grabs, I will call these successful and unsuccessful countries, respectfully. Successful meaning "successful at managing a public health crisis caused by a lethal pandemic."

Second, unsuccessful countries employed a variety of different strategies and endured a variety of economic impacts, none of which were correlated. The UK completely fucked up its lockdown and had deaths comparable to Brazil, which had no lockdown. The same thing happened in the US. Sweden has its hands off policy and suffered a health and economic crisis similar to Italy, which had a lockdown and was the epicenter of the European pandemic. To your credit: 1) not trying any lockdown at all does keep the economic damage lower (as expected) and 2) it's better to not have a lockdown than to pretend to do one and fail in an epic way.

Third, let us look to the left. With the exception of Japan which is heavily dependent on western imports, countries with successful public health policies had way more manageable economic shocks. A successful coronavirus policy is far and away the best economic policy. That doesn't mean lockdowns. I'm not an expert but I know South Korean life has really been business as usual except for the occasional nightclub having to get shut down. China had a now infamous lockdown in Wuhan but it lifted restrictions in other provinces quite quickly. I think Japan never really locked down or took it to heart. There were a variety of responses but in every one of these countries trust in the government was high, masks are ubiquitous, and a smart testing policy was put in place to enable precision interventions. Every country on the left has a "sustainable" policy.

Sweden is a failure. Writing an op ed in the guardian saying "maybe it's time to learn to live with the virus" is equivalent to the author saying he wants to give up. That's it. Looking at these two types of countries, successes and failures, and listening to the discourse in the countries on the right, makes me feel like an insane person. A different future was possible.

EDIT: I think to be totally fair I should have included Q1 contractions as well but different countries had outbreaks at different times and it was always going to be apples to oranges in some sense.

*Except China, which had the greatest change in the first quarter

Probably because they are two different situations. Inb4 some people report me for console warring and refusing to understand what the problem is, let me explain:

The PlayStation platform is a more privileged platform. It has the best third-party support even if the games don't sell well on it. By that, I mean the tons of niche Japanese games that are going in decline after the loss of handheld platforms. Also stuff like the Doraemon port or Yokai Watch 4 port had abysmal sales on the PS4. Yet, this will never stop companies from supporting it even if they lose money on it. PlayStation fans truly have it good.

So what's the problem? The problem is that Sony moneyhats exclusives DESPITE being this privileged. They already had such a strong platform. Many Japanese third-parties REFUSE to support Xbox (for obvious reasons) and Switch (despite being market leader in Japan) already. Even so, Sony still wants to completely shut down competition by buying more exclusives. That in itself is anti-competitive. Do you understand?

Nintendo platforms, on the other hand, don't have such luxury support. Nintendo can have the strongest platform, and third parties would skip it (see Gamecube vs PS2). Nintendo can have the best selling platform, and third parties would skip it. Hence, when Nintendo goes out of their way to moneyhat exclusives, it is of a competitive nature. They're getting games they might otherwise not get OR to make up for games skipping out on the platform. This balances the market and makes it healthier.

The problem with all the PlayStation fans being upset here is that you guys don't accept that the context are different. From your point of view, it's hypocrisy, but is it? Is it truly console warring and devoid of reasoning? The easiest way to evaluate this is to substitute the context into another similar situation. Let's compare the a rich guy who has everything to a working class citizen. The two are both hoarding goods, but they do it under different circumstances. The rich guy already has enough resources, but they simply want to buy more to keep others from having it. The working class citizen isn't as privileged and is hoarding goods to save up for bad times. Who would you support more? Is it not obvious?

You can say that both Nintendo and Sony are bad, but one's definitely worse. It's not console warring to point out that one platform is clearly more privileged and has more support. The less privileged platform will have compete using the same practice since the dominant one is being extremely aggressive. It is therefore, unreasonable to accuse both of being equally bad when one is doing it to compete and the other is doing it to prevent competition. I don't understand how that is so hard to get. You can say that this is shitty, but you must accept that it's a consequence of Sony's actions. You must, also, cannot deny that it is logically wrong to condemn Nintendo of being more ethically wrong than Sony when the latter is the main driving force and the one with the most privilege on the market. This is a reality you can't deny and calling it console warring because you guys can't dispute this is stupid. It just means you don't want to engage in a discussion where you might be wrong so you just want to shut it down using authority.

tl;dr I can already predict some will dismiss this as some copypasta and satire because they can't and don't want to address the valid points that have been brought up. It's easier to invalidate than engage after all. Be upset about the news if you want, but if someone wants to tell you that your anger is misdirected and the ethical problems you guys brought up are misplaced, then they have all the rights to do so. Just because you're upset doesn't mean anyone who denies your justification for feeling that way are wrong/bad/or console warring. Accept that. An undersupported platform getting exclusives > the most supported platform getting exclusives. I'll say it how many times you need to hear it. The latter is more unnecessary than the former. If the former is being more widely accepted, then there is a reason for that. You try to understand things by analyzing the norms and values that created such a different standard for the two platforms in the first place. Dismissing is NOT understanding.
Margs

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12139 on: September 22, 2020, 09:18:41 AM »
Having a long-term sustainable strategy that allows society to keep functioning with relative normality, while controlling the rate of spread.

I made this graph for you. It plots percent gdp change in the second quarter* vs deaths per million population, thus quantifying the economic harm vs. public health tradeoff. Country labels are to the left of the datapoint. The one at the very bottom left is Taiwan.



The topology of this graph makes a few things obvious. First of all notice the yawning gulf between countries on the left and countries on the right. Since you shied away from this term and it's up for grabs, I will call these successful and unsuccessful countries, respectfully. Successful meaning "successful at managing a public health crisis caused by a lethal pandemic."

Second, unsuccessful countries employed a variety of different strategies and endured a variety of economic impacts, none of which were correlated. The UK completely fucked up its lockdown and had deaths comparable to Brazil, which had no lockdown. The same thing happened in the US. Sweden has its hands off policy and suffered a health and economic crisis similar to Italy, which had a lockdown and was the epicenter of the European pandemic. To your credit: 1) not trying any lockdown at all does keep the economic damage lower (as expected) and 2) it's better to not have a lockdown than to pretend to do one and fail in an epic way.

Third, let us look to the left. With the exception of Japan which is heavily dependent on western imports, countries with successful public health policies had way more manageable economic shocks. A successful coronavirus policy is far and away the best economic policy. That doesn't mean lockdowns. I'm not an expert but I know South Korean life has really been business as usual except for the occasional nightclub having to get shut down. China had a now infamous lockdown in Wuhan but it lifted restrictions in other provinces quite quickly. I think Japan never really locked down or took it to heart. There were a variety of responses but in every one of these countries trust in the government was high, masks are ubiquitous, and a smart testing policy was put in place to enable precision interventions. Every country on the left has a "sustainable" policy.

Sweden is a failure. Writing an op ed in the guardian saying "maybe it's time to learn to live with the virus" is equivalent to the author saying he wants to give up. That's it. Looking at these two types of countries, successes and failures, and listening to the discourse in the countries on the right, makes me feel like an insane person. A different future was possible.

EDIT: I think to be totally fair I should have included Q1 contractions as well but different countries had outbreaks at different times and it was always going to be apples to oranges in some sense.

*Except China, which had the greatest change in the first quarter

You're getting caught up in the notion of success or failure, and I don't know why. The point is, Sweden set out to create a strategy that is actually feasible for the long-term. They did fuck up. Their biggest fuck up was care homes and not adequately shielding the vulnerable groups. However, it is not so much what they got right or wrong. The reason for using the strategy is simply because the virus isn't going to go away, and going into lockdown and placing restrictions every time there is a spike is not feasible in the long run. And so far it seems to be working. And you say, 'to my credit', it's not to my credit, I was simply stating what has been reported in the news. It was not an opinion. I was not making an argument. I didn't even say it was a success or that it had worked. I simply stated it may have worked based on the reports. I also said that you can speak too soon on things like this. And in terms of whether a country fucked up or not: it is not completely clear why exactly some countries faired better than others. There are different variables.

Also, the op-ed in the guardian was actually an article from the BBC. A very different animal. When the BBC are writing these kind of articles you know there is a shift going on. They would not have wrote something like that a few months ago.

This is from the guardian though.
Covid UK: scientists at loggerheads over approach to new restrictions
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/22/scientists-disagree-over-targeted-versus-nationwide-measures-to-tackle-covid

We have scientists in two camps now in the UK. One believing there should be no restrictions, and the other believing there should be more. Sign of the times.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 09:22:54 AM by Leadbelly »

Boogie

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12140 on: September 22, 2020, 10:39:03 AM »
Ouch, 478 cases in Ontario today.   We’ve leapfrogged past the highway comparisons already.
MMA

Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12141 on: September 22, 2020, 10:51:06 AM »
Ya we are in for a shitty few months.   I don't feel like just scolding people for having private gatherings is going to be an effective strategy for this new wave.

Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12142 on: September 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM »
And so far it seems to be working.

Are Finland and Norway's approaches not working?

Boogie

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12143 on: September 22, 2020, 11:41:53 AM »
Ya we are in for a shitty few months.   I don't feel like just scolding people for having private gatherings is going to be an effective strategy for this new wave.

I'm bracing for that 2nd round of home schooling with dread.  Health comes first, obviously, and we are privileged to work from home, but 2 adults WFH, one also doing courses to get her CPA designation, along with 2 kids (both with ADHD, one of which is on the spectrum), homeschooling, was not an experience I am eager to repeat.
MMA

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12144 on: September 22, 2020, 12:02:28 PM »
And so far it seems to be working.

Are Finland and Norway's approaches not working?

This is so funny.

Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12145 on: September 22, 2020, 12:03:27 PM »
hm?

shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12146 on: September 22, 2020, 12:05:34 PM »
:killme
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Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12147 on: September 22, 2020, 12:16:31 PM »
not sure why you're being so defensive

we just asked you to clarify

lol you're not?


...no?

Quote
I've been jumped on the whole time in this thread. And I knew the moment I posted it, people would jump on it like it was a chip pan fire. Seriously though, it was in the news, so I posted about it.


you've been pulling this shit for as long as i've known you. you post various links that support your views on a given subject, stroking your chin and going "hmm very interesting isn't it??" and when people ask you to elaborate, you immediately play the victim card. look at how you responded in the last exchange. we simply asked you to explain what you were talking about and you were like "OH SO YOU DON'T BELIEVE ME AND THINK I'M BEING POLITICAL, WELL WHAT ABOUT SOME OF YOUR PRECIOUS LIBERAL MEDIA ALLIES HMMM?"

lol

Bollocks! You perceive it as a right wing talking point. And so when I post something like that you're scrambling to prove it wrong. Not because it is actually right or wrong, but because you have taken a stance that you believe to be left-wing, and so correct. I knew exactly how it would be received the moment I posted it. Which is kind of why I posted it. I know what you people are doing. Which is why I find it funny. Because it is literally just the news. Articles from that hard-right news outlet, the guardian (lol). And the alt-right rag, the BBC. I'm not playing the victim card, I was just outlining exactly what I knew would happen.

You're playing a game in your own head. I don't give a shit really what your response is because I know it's not actually about the specifics of whatever I posted. It's all about your own stance which is purely partisan, purely political, which you are trying to maintain as correct.

Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12148 on: September 22, 2020, 12:18:04 PM »
less meta-commentary on the social dynamics of this thread, less appeals to authority

if you understand the concepts then you can explain and defend them in your own words

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12149 on: September 22, 2020, 12:33:10 PM »
less meta-commentary on the social dynamics of this thread, less appeals to authority

if you understand the concepts then you can explain and defend them in your own words

What do you want me to explain? I don't think you really care what I think, really.

I could go into the specifics of Shosta's post, but what's the point? Like for instance the whole idea that 'success' is measured by how well the pandemic was 'managed' in various countries. Something that is complicated and with many variables. How for instance do we consider what 'well managed' looks like? For example, we have two vastly different approaches with China and Japan. China was welding doors shut in apartment blocks, while Japan did fuck all (lol). One of the key measures that needs to be done to control the spread is testing. Testing and lots of it. Japan did very little testing. If Japan had a very different outcome we would be saying it was poorly managed. Maybe they were saved by the culture of wearing masks. Could be that. However, even that is not clear. At least the experts say it isn't clear yet. The point being, there are too many variables and differing approaches, to make definitive claims on what can be considered the best or worst strategy to take. Or how well the outbreak was managed.

Rufus

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12150 on: September 22, 2020, 12:34:38 PM »
You're getting caught up in the notion of success or failure, and I don't know why.
Are you joking? You go on to detail exactly why it is about success or failure (which includes the long term, obviously).

Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12151 on: September 22, 2020, 12:41:18 PM »
It seems Sweden's strategy, may have been a success. You can speak too soon on things like this though, so lets see where we are once we hit winter. That said, cases are falling in Sweden while everywhere else they are rising. I was also reading that some epidemiologists now believe it may have been the right strategy.

You're getting caught up in the notion of success or failure, and I don't know why.

truly a mystery

shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12152 on: September 22, 2020, 12:41:34 PM »
I could go into the specifics of Shosta's post, but what's the point?
:killme :killme :killme
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Rufus

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12153 on: September 22, 2020, 12:45:44 PM »
The point being, there are too many variables and differing approaches, to make definitive claims on what can be considered the best or worst strategy to take.
There are very clear stategies that the countries who have successfully curbed spread have in common: mask wearing, infection tracking and ensuing localized shutdowns, pre-emptive closing of likely infection hotspots, and finally widespread testing.

Given that not doing these things has demonstrably worse public health and economic outcomes, the question whether the measures should or can be upheld in perpetuity seems moot. You take the hit, or you take a worse hit.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 12:51:17 PM by Rufus »

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12154 on: September 22, 2020, 12:46:02 PM »
It seems Sweden's strategy, may have been a success. You can speak too soon on things like this though, so lets see where we are once we hit winter. That said, cases are falling in Sweden while everywhere else they are rising. I was also reading that some epidemiologists now believe it may have been the right strategy.

You're getting caught up in the notion of success or failure, and I don't know why.

truly a mystery

It is a mystery because I conceded to that point the moment Shosta made it. And I never said it was a success in the first place. So why go on about it? I actually know the reason why. It was said rhetorically. I was questioning the purpose of getting so caught up in it.

shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12155 on: September 22, 2020, 12:48:06 PM »
can we please talk about which countries had good and bad policies based on specific metrics that all parties can agree upon

spoiler (click to show/hide)
also what did you think about my graph did you like my graph because I liked my graph did you even read my graph :killme
[close]
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Tripon

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12156 on: September 22, 2020, 12:48:24 PM »
Having a long-term sustainable strategy that allows society to keep functioning with relative normality, while controlling the rate of spread.

I made this graph for you. It plots percent gdp change in the second quarter* vs deaths per million population, thus quantifying the economic harm vs. public health tradeoff. Country labels are to the left of the datapoint. The one at the very bottom left is Taiwan.



The topology of this graph makes a few things obvious. First of all notice the yawning gulf between countries on the left and countries on the right. Since you shied away from this term and it's up for grabs, I will call these successful and unsuccessful countries, respectfully. Successful meaning "successful at managing a public health crisis caused by a lethal pandemic."

Second, unsuccessful countries employed a variety of different strategies and endured a variety of economic impacts, none of which were correlated. The UK completely fucked up its lockdown and had deaths comparable to Brazil, which had no lockdown. The same thing happened in the US. Sweden has its hands off policy and suffered a health and economic crisis similar to Italy, which had a lockdown and was the epicenter of the European pandemic. To your credit: 1) not trying any lockdown at all does keep the economic damage lower (as expected) and 2) it's better to not have a lockdown than to pretend to do one and fail in an epic way.

Third, let us look to the left. With the exception of Japan which is heavily dependent on western imports, countries with successful public health policies had way more manageable economic shocks. A successful coronavirus policy is far and away the best economic policy. That doesn't mean lockdowns. I'm not an expert but I know South Korean life has really been business as usual except for the occasional nightclub having to get shut down. China had a now infamous lockdown in Wuhan but it lifted restrictions in other provinces quite quickly. I think Japan never really locked down or took it to heart. There were a variety of responses but in every one of these countries trust in the government was high, masks are ubiquitous, and a smart testing policy was put in place to enable precision interventions. Every country on the left has a "sustainable" policy.

Sweden is a failure. Writing an op ed in the guardian saying "maybe it's time to learn to live with the virus" is equivalent to the author saying he wants to give up. That's it. Looking at these two types of countries, successes and failures, and listening to the discourse in the countries on the right, makes me feel like an insane person. A different future was possible.

EDIT: I think to be totally fair I should have included Q1 contractions as well but different countries had outbreaks at different times and it was always going to be apples to oranges in some sense.

*Except China, which had the greatest change in the first quarter

Probably because they are two different situations. Inb4 some people report me for console warring and refusing to understand what the problem is, let me explain:

The PlayStation platform is a more privileged platform. It has the best third-party support even if the games don't sell well on it. By that, I mean the tons of niche Japanese games that are going in decline after the loss of handheld platforms. Also stuff like the Doraemon port or Yokai Watch 4 port had abysmal sales on the PS4. Yet, this will never stop companies from supporting it even if they lose money on it. PlayStation fans truly have it good.

So what's the problem? The problem is that Sony moneyhats exclusives DESPITE being this privileged. They already had such a strong platform. Many Japanese third-parties REFUSE to support Xbox (for obvious reasons) and Switch (despite being market leader in Japan) already. Even so, Sony still wants to completely shut down competition by buying more exclusives. That in itself is anti-competitive. Do you understand?

Nintendo platforms, on the other hand, don't have such luxury support. Nintendo can have the strongest platform, and third parties would skip it (see Gamecube vs PS2). Nintendo can have the best selling platform, and third parties would skip it. Hence, when Nintendo goes out of their way to moneyhat exclusives, it is of a competitive nature. They're getting games they might otherwise not get OR to make up for games skipping out on the platform. This balances the market and makes it healthier.

The problem with all the PlayStation fans being upset here is that you guys don't accept that the context are different. From your point of view, it's hypocrisy, but is it? Is it truly console warring and devoid of reasoning? The easiest way to evaluate this is to substitute the context into another similar situation. Let's compare the a rich guy who has everything to a working class citizen. The two are both hoarding goods, but they do it under different circumstances. The rich guy already has enough resources, but they simply want to buy more to keep others from having it. The working class citizen isn't as privileged and is hoarding goods to save up for bad times. Who would you support more? Is it not obvious?

You can say that both Nintendo and Sony are bad, but one's definitely worse. It's not console warring to point out that one platform is clearly more privileged and has more support. The less privileged platform will have compete using the same practice since the dominant one is being extremely aggressive. It is therefore, unreasonable to accuse both of being equally bad when one is doing it to compete and the other is doing it to prevent competition. I don't understand how that is so hard to get. You can say that this is shitty, but you must accept that it's a consequence of Sony's actions. You must, also, cannot deny that it is logically wrong to condemn Nintendo of being more ethically wrong than Sony when the latter is the main driving force and the one with the most privilege on the market. This is a reality you can't deny and calling it console warring because you guys can't dispute this is stupid. It just means you don't want to engage in a discussion where you might be wrong so you just want to shut it down using authority.

tl;dr I can already predict some will dismiss this as some copypasta and satire because they can't and don't want to address the valid points that have been brought up. It's easier to invalidate than engage after all. Be upset about the news if you want, but if someone wants to tell you that your anger is misdirected and the ethical problems you guys brought up are misplaced, then they have all the rights to do so. Just because you're upset doesn't mean anyone who denies your justification for feeling that way are wrong/bad/or console warring. Accept that. An undersupported platform getting exclusives > the most supported platform getting exclusives. I'll say it how many times you need to hear it. The latter is more unnecessary than the former. If the former is being more widely accepted, then there is a reason for that. You try to understand things by analyzing the norms and values that created such a different standard for the two platforms in the first place. Dismissing is NOT understanding.

So you're saying console wars is like the lockdowns countries are doing? Makes sense.

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12157 on: September 22, 2020, 12:54:25 PM »
can we please talk about which countries had good and bad policies based on specific metrics that all parties can agree upon

spoiler (click to show/hide)
also what did you think about my graph did you like my graph because I liked my graph did you even read my graph :killme
[close]

Yeah I looked at your graph. I also noticed where Japan was on the graph. Again Japan didn't do fuck all. Which is the point I was making. If that is the case, then how do you decide what is good or bad policy? Because do nothing seems like a good policy.

Rufus

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Rufus

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12160 on: September 22, 2020, 01:04:47 PM »
So does Japan break the pattern or not? Which is it?

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12161 on: September 22, 2020, 01:08:18 PM »
So does Japan break the pattern or doesn't it? Which is it?

What do you mean? Japan didn't literally do nothing. In the same way Sweden didn't literally do nothing. However, they did far less than most countries. Or at least they didn't have the kind of lockdown Europe or China had. And they didn't do the sort of testing that many other countries did.

Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12162 on: September 22, 2020, 01:14:25 PM »
Positivity rates were ~1% in Japan by the start of June.

You don't need huge raw numbers of tests if the number of cases is actually very low.

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12163 on: September 22, 2020, 01:17:27 PM »
Ya we are in for a shitty few months.   I don't feel like just scolding people for having private gatherings is going to be an effective strategy for this new wave.

I'm bracing for that 2nd round of home schooling with dread.  Health comes first, obviously, and we are privileged to work from home, but 2 adults WFH, one also doing courses to get her CPA designation, along with 2 kids (both with ADHD, one of which is on the spectrum), homeschooling, was not an experience I am eager to repeat.

Ya I wasn't doing very good with WFH and I only had myself to consider.  Kind of worried that they will shut down the office again if it gets bad. 

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12164 on: September 22, 2020, 01:20:38 PM »
Positivity rates were ~1% in Japan by the start of June.

You don't need huge raw numbers of tests if the number of cases is actually very low.

Well, in comparison South Korea conducted over 2 million tests. And Korea's ability to do large scale testing was said to be one of the reasons Korea was able to control the virus so well.

Rufus

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12165 on: September 22, 2020, 01:25:20 PM »
Or at least they didn't have the kind of lockdown Europe or China had.
The government didn't mandate any lockdowns, no, because asking the public to refrain from becoming disease vectors was enough. 🤷‍♂️ That, and a steady supply of masks...

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12166 on: September 22, 2020, 01:30:11 PM »
Or at least they didn't have the kind of lockdown Europe or China had.
The government didn't mandate any lockdowns, no, because asking the public to refrain from becoming disease vectors was enough. 🤷‍♂️ That, and a steady supply of masks...

Personally, I think it was the culture of wearing masks. It is ingrained in them. However, It isn't exactly clear yet. One possible theory is that there is already some level of immunity in the population from an older coronavirus.

Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12167 on: September 22, 2020, 01:32:25 PM »
Japan's conducted over 1.8 million tests. Even adjusting for population difference, doesn't seem to support "Japan did very little testing."

Rufus

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12168 on: September 22, 2020, 01:34:42 PM »
What isn't clear? Masks are so effective, they get you most of the way toward a functioning public life. Them being used to wearing them is a major boon and kept the spread down when everyone was still scrambling and the heave and ho about the effectiveness of masks was everywhere in the media.

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12169 on: September 22, 2020, 01:39:07 PM »
Japan's conducted over 1.8 million tests. Even adjusting for population difference, doesn't seem to support "Japan did very little testing."

Well, they must have increased testing. I was going by the news I had read months ago. It stood at only 300,000 back in June. And if you go back to April the rate was even worse.

Coronavirus: Japan's low testing rate raises questions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52466834


Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12170 on: September 22, 2020, 01:41:08 PM »
What isn't clear? Masks are so effective, they get you most of the way toward a functioning public life. Them being used to wearing them is a major boon and kept the spread down when everyone was still scrambling and the heave and ho about the effectiveness of masks was everywhere in the media.

I think it is the masks. Experts are far less likely to make definitive claims though. There are other possible reasons.

Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12171 on: September 22, 2020, 01:43:08 PM »
There's a lot of detailed, current data on coronavirus (incidence, deaths, testing, etc.) that's very accessible on the internet and I strongly recommend getting familiar with it.

It's more informative than gleaning stats from news stories, especially ones that are months out of date.

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12172 on: September 22, 2020, 01:45:14 PM »
There's a lot of detailed, current data on coronavirus (incidence, deaths, testing, etc.) that's very accessible on the internet and I strongly recommend getting familiar with it.

It's more informative than gleaning stats from news stories, especially ones that are months out of date.

I don't think it makes a difference, does it? The peak was months ago. The point being Japan tested far fewer people than in other countries at that time.

shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12173 on: September 22, 2020, 01:46:26 PM »
No need to be rude, Mandark. He's just explaining why he thought Japan wasn't doing as many tests.
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Mandark

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12174 on: September 22, 2020, 01:47:56 PM »
If it's rude to suggest people look at graphs, it must be horribly insulting to actually post one.

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12175 on: September 22, 2020, 01:48:04 PM »
No need to be rude, Mandark. He's just explaining why he thought Japan wasn't doing as many tests.

They weren't? Unless I am imagining the articles I just posted. lol


shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12176 on: September 22, 2020, 01:48:28 PM »
If it's rude to suggest people look at graphs, it must be horribly insulting to actually post one.
You're a coward and I don't think your post is worth dignifying with a response.
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Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12177 on: September 22, 2020, 01:53:06 PM »
If it's rude to suggest people look at graphs, it must be horribly insulting to actually post one.
You're a coward and I don't think your post is worth dignifying with a response.

edit: You weren't. Sorry I thought you was speaking to me Shosta.

shosta

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12178 on: September 22, 2020, 01:53:56 PM »
No I think Mandark is the rudest and least charitable person on the entire internet. I've had a problem with him for years. Try searching "Mandark coward" and you'll see a lot of other people share my opinion. There is a reason it's a meme.
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Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart
« Reply #12179 on: September 22, 2020, 01:54:30 PM »
No I think Mandark is the rudest and least charitable person on the entire internet. I've had a problem with him for years.

Yeah sorry.