Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[HardcoreRetro]

Two yodeling concerts in Switzerland were superspreader events.

[Nintex]

At least COVID had a V-shaped recovery 

[Nintex]

+7997 today

 

[T-Short]

Another one of these articles. This one is absolutely massive, and I still sort of fail to see the point

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

If you want to have a TL;DR, here it is:

"Sweden, who didn't lock down early, are seeing an increase of infections from a seasonal virus, just like many other countries in Europe, including those that did lock down early"

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/Cholega/status/1316554839053275137

It seems like the death rate in Peru was 3x normal for several months. The median age in Peru is ~15 years lower than the median age in Europe.

[Nintex]

After our government implored people to stay home our king took his jet to Greece for a vacation 

[Nintex]

After our government implored people to stay home our king took his jet to Greece for a vacation 

Update: our King has returned to the country and apologized 

[Flannel Boy]

Illinois +5,103

[Flannel Boy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1317226352161017857

Edit map is five days old

[Joe Molotov]

After our government implored people to stay home our king took his jet to Greece for a vacation 

Update: our King has returned to the country and apologized 

[james]

We did it boys.

Over 70k in the US.

Zero mitigation.

This time 100k in a day is within reach

[zomgee]

Awesome, one of my friends is one of them. A nurse.

[Pennywise]

Edit map is five days old

You can add alot more red now, especially for big towns in the west and near the borders.

[Nintex]

Germany +7800
Belgium +10k

 

[team filler]

We did it boys.

Over 70k in the US.

Zero mitigation.

This time 100k in a day is within reach

american exceptionalism 

[Flannel Boy]

Germany +7800
Belgium +10k

 

Belgium’s number are crazy considering both how small it is and how hard it was hit the first time (second most deaths per capita after Peru).

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1317435521128423431

Our fascist superiors.

[Flannel Boy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Crof/status/1317494081895870466

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-17/victoria-records-1-new-coronavirus-case-melbourne-average-falls/12778178

Victoria records one new coronavirus case and no deaths

[Nintex]

+8 141

 

[james]

What's going on in Belgium?

Is it the delicious food?

[Nintex]

What's going on in Belgium?

Is it the delicious food?

I hear they have lots of basements 

[Nintex]

+8184

Looks like it has stabilized 

[Lonewulfeus]

It’s Sunday, does the Netherlands not have an artificial decline on reports of weekend days?

[HardcoreRetro]

Back in the first wave there was. It would spike on tuesdays because of it.

[Tripon]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/17/sweden-considers-local-lockdowns-shift-coronavirus-strategy/

Sweden's cities looking towards lockdowns to clamp down numbers.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Sweden's public health agency will this week start working with regions battling the worst coronavirus outbreaks to bring in local restrictions, as the country toughens its approach to ward off a resurgence in infections.

The rules, which come into force on Monday, empower regional health authorities to instruct citizens to avoid shopping centres, museums, libraries, swimming pools, gyms, sports training, sports matches, and concerts.

It also empowers them, in consultation with the agency, to instruct people to avoid public transport or to avoid visiting the elderly and others in risk groups.

"It's more of a lockdown situation - but a local lockdown," said Johan Nojd, who leads the infectious diseases department in Uppsala.

The number of cases in Uppsala has soared ten-fold in recent weeks, with 185 cases per 100,000 over the past fortnight.

The number of new cases in Sweden has been climbing since the start of September, with a seven-day average of 65 per million people per day reported to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on Friday, compared to 71, 40 and 25 cases per million in Denmark, Finland and Norway respectively.

Dr Nojd will hold a meeting with Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell on Monday to discuss which of the available measures to put in place.

He said he was currently considering instructing people not to visit the elderly or others in a risk group, and also to avoid unnecessary journeys, particularly on public transport.

If contract tracing were to show links between infections and other places or activities, he said he would not hesitate to impose further measures.

"Perhaps tomorrow we will have several talking about concerts or restaurants and then perhaps one could say, 'in Uppsala now for two or three weeks it is the Public Health Agency's advice not to sit in restaurants late at night'."

Bitte Brastad, chief legal officer at the agency, described the new measures as "something in between regulations and recommendations". They are the strongest recommendation the authorities can make but - unlike in other countries - do not bring fines for non-compliance.

Dr Joacim Rocklov, professor of epidemiology at Umea University, said that the new local measures showed Sweden quietly shifting strategy.

"What's happened in the last couple of weeks is a movement towards a similar model to what has been used in Norway and many other countries," he said.

"It's very obvious that it's a new strategy, but still the newspapers report on 'the Swedish strategy' as if it were fixed in March."

Norway in March closed down restaurants, cafés, bars, and hairdressers, with those that defied the order fined for non-compliance.

That would not be the case under Sweden's new approach, although if a city issued a strong recommendation not to visit restaurants or hairdressers, many might close.

Dr Rocklov said that he believed that the resurgence in infections in Stockholm and other cities that suffered many cases in the spring, such as Milan and Madrid, had challenged the Public Health Agency's belief that immunity in the population might soon start to suppress the pandemic.

"I think they must have been shocked by that, after all these strong claims that we were closing in on immunity in April and May. They must have realised that that's not really the case."

Dr Tegnell said on Thursday that the autumn resurgence in infections had changed his agency's understanding. 

"I think the obvious conclusion is that the level of immunity in those cities is not at all as high as we have, as maybe some people, have believed," he said.

"I think what we are seeing is very much a consequence of the very heterogeneous spread that this disease has, which means that even if you feel like there have been a lot of cases in some big cities, there are still huge pockets of people who have not been affected yet."

A preprint study published last week by Stockholm University maths professor Tom Britton - one of Sweden's foremost epidemiological modellers - found that even with more than 20 percent of the city's population immune, the city still needed to impose preventive measures to prevent a resurgence in cases.

"Immunity is a little bit on our on our side, but there is still a substantial risk for future outbreaks in Sweden," Dr Britton said.

"If we did not care anything about any restrictions or preventive measures, then I think we would see a big second wave, not as big as in the spring, but still a big one.

Yesterday, global coronavirus cases rose by more than 400,000 for the first time, a record one-day increase.

[close]

[james]

Halloween is on Saturday this year.

The corona parties will be lit af.

I'll like a shosta post if the US isn't over 100k on Tuesday November 10

[Tripon]

The U.S. were likely over 100K over the summer because the 3 out of the 4 biggest states were having record positive cases (CA, TX, FL) with only New York not having elevated numbers. Plus, we also had states like Arizona going nuts. But, the states reached capacity of testing quick, so thousands positive cases likely didn't test.

Now that it's more widespread, we might get an official 100K+ number.

James, are you still in NJ?

[james]

James, are you still in NJ?

Yup. Things are ok here.

[Lonewulfeus]

James, are you still in NJ?

Yup. Things are ok here.

We’re getting there, pretty much 900+ new cases a day.

[james]

James, are you still in NJ?

Yup. Things are ok here.

We’re getting there, pretty much 900+ new cases a day.

A lot of them are the Trumpers in Monmouth and Ocean, and they dont come up here. But still. Bad news all around.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1317849521691402240

[Madrun Badrun]

[T-Short]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/17/sweden-considers-local-lockdowns-shift-coronavirus-strategy/

Sweden's cities looking towards lockdowns to clamp down numbers.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Sweden's public health agency will this week start working with regions battling the worst coronavirus outbreaks to bring in local restrictions, as the country toughens its approach to ward off a resurgence in infections.

The rules, which come into force on Monday, empower regional health authorities to instruct citizens to avoid shopping centres, museums, libraries, swimming pools, gyms, sports training, sports matches, and concerts.

It also empowers them, in consultation with the agency, to instruct people to avoid public transport or to avoid visiting the elderly and others in risk groups.

"It's more of a lockdown situation - but a local lockdown," said Johan Nojd, who leads the infectious diseases department in Uppsala.

The number of cases in Uppsala has soared ten-fold in recent weeks, with 185 cases per 100,000 over the past fortnight.

The number of new cases in Sweden has been climbing since the start of September, with a seven-day average of 65 per million people per day reported to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on Friday, compared to 71, 40 and 25 cases per million in Denmark, Finland and Norway respectively.

Dr Nojd will hold a meeting with Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell on Monday to discuss which of the available measures to put in place.

He said he was currently considering instructing people not to visit the elderly or others in a risk group, and also to avoid unnecessary journeys, particularly on public transport.

If contract tracing were to show links between infections and other places or activities, he said he would not hesitate to impose further measures.

"Perhaps tomorrow we will have several talking about concerts or restaurants and then perhaps one could say, 'in Uppsala now for two or three weeks it is the Public Health Agency's advice not to sit in restaurants late at night'."

Bitte Brastad, chief legal officer at the agency, described the new measures as "something in between regulations and recommendations". They are the strongest recommendation the authorities can make but - unlike in other countries - do not bring fines for non-compliance.

Dr Joacim Rocklov, professor of epidemiology at Umea University, said that the new local measures showed Sweden quietly shifting strategy.

"What's happened in the last couple of weeks is a movement towards a similar model to what has been used in Norway and many other countries," he said.

"It's very obvious that it's a new strategy, but still the newspapers report on 'the Swedish strategy' as if it were fixed in March."

Norway in March closed down restaurants, cafés, bars, and hairdressers, with those that defied the order fined for non-compliance.

That would not be the case under Sweden's new approach, although if a city issued a strong recommendation not to visit restaurants or hairdressers, many might close.

Dr Rocklov said that he believed that the resurgence in infections in Stockholm and other cities that suffered many cases in the spring, such as Milan and Madrid, had challenged the Public Health Agency's belief that immunity in the population might soon start to suppress the pandemic.

"I think they must have been shocked by that, after all these strong claims that we were closing in on immunity in April and May. They must have realised that that's not really the case."

Dr Tegnell said on Thursday that the autumn resurgence in infections had changed his agency's understanding. 

"I think the obvious conclusion is that the level of immunity in those cities is not at all as high as we have, as maybe some people, have believed," he said.

"I think what we are seeing is very much a consequence of the very heterogeneous spread that this disease has, which means that even if you feel like there have been a lot of cases in some big cities, there are still huge pockets of people who have not been affected yet."

A preprint study published last week by Stockholm University maths professor Tom Britton - one of Sweden's foremost epidemiological modellers - found that even with more than 20 percent of the city's population immune, the city still needed to impose preventive measures to prevent a resurgence in cases.

"Immunity is a little bit on our on our side, but there is still a substantial risk for future outbreaks in Sweden," Dr Britton said.

"If we did not care anything about any restrictions or preventive measures, then I think we would see a big second wave, not as big as in the spring, but still a big one.

Yesterday, global coronavirus cases rose by more than 400,000 for the first time, a record one-day increase.

[close]

Hehe, weird. I saw Business Insider picked this up as well. Not sure what the Torygraph is angling for here, seems like such a non-story. No lockdowns, forced closures or curfews, basically just empowering regional governments to issue the same type of recommendations as those issued nationally since March. itsnothing.gif

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1318299845287923713

205.6 man-years of continuous follow-up and 101 Coronavirus infections. One subject had 17 coronavirus infection (12 of 229E).

[Great Rumbler]

[team filler]

[bork]

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1318231720026656768

[Pissy F Benny]

i'm not having that shes 14, she looks about 30

[BIONIC]

i'm not having that shes 14, she looks about 30

[Pissy F Benny]

we could use his expertise to crack this case

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-monday-edition-1.5767947/swedish-virologist-says-her-country-s-covid-19-strategy-has-failed-but-nobody-will-admit-it-1.5767967

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/KevinWGlass/status/1317832641266307072
There are states in the US under 50%.

[Nintex]

For now we've stabilized at 8k a day here.

Contact tracing? They've given up on that months ago and the App they built doesn't work 

[tiesto]

https://twitter.com/KevinWGlass/status/1317832641266307072
There are states in the US under 50%.

If you actually make it into Berghain, your immune system is probably so built up you won't ever have to worry about Covid...

[team filler]

For now we've stabilized at 8k a day here.

Contact tracing? They've given up on that months ago and the App they built doesn't work 

does government contracting not pay well over there?

[Nintex]

For now we've stabilized at 8k a day here.

Contact tracing? They've given up on that months ago and the App they built doesn't work 

does government contracting not pay well over there?

All government IT projects fail basically

There's a shortage of people in healthcare in general because of budget cuts and lousy pay.

[james]

I have the official app m doing my part

[Nintex]

Nintendo should just bring back StreetPass. They made the perfect contact tracing app years ago.

[team filler]

[Nintex]

Fact check

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1318280534414495744

[team filler]

 

[Nintex]

Melania is cancelling campaign appearances because she has a lingering cough and COVID effects despite the reporting that she was asymptomatic, and also Trump keeps plugging Regeneron to his chud followers as the cure and better than a vaccine and he's going to make sure everyone can it it....yet his own wife, the first lady, couldn't get it and is still sick.

Say what you will about the man, he's not a hypocrite when he says migrants don't deserve free healthcare

[Lonewulfeus]

Melania is cancelling campaign appearances because she has a lingering cough and COVID effects despite the reporting that she was asymptomatic, and also Trump keeps plugging Regeneron to his chud followers as the cure and better than a vaccine and he's going to make sure everyone can it it....yet his own wife, the first lady, couldn't get it and is still sick.

Say what you will about the man, he's not a hypocrite when he says migrants don't deserve free healthcare

You think she paid for those vitamins and vegetables?

[Cauliflower Of Love]

Melania is cancelling campaign appearances because she has a lingering cough and COVID effects despite the reporting that she was asymptomatic, and also Trump keeps plugging Regeneron to his chud followers as the cure and better than a vaccine and he's going to make sure everyone can it it....yet his own wife, the first lady, couldn't get it and is still sick.

Melania has had campaign appearances?

[Pissy F Benny]

she probably needs a firmware update

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1318614425033756674

[Flannel Boy]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates

"The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance."

Or--among hospitalized patients, there has been a 70% drop in the chances of dying.

"The people who are getting hospitalized now tend to be much younger, tend to have fewer other diseases and tend to be less frail than people who were hospitalized in the early days of the epidemic," Horwitz says.

To find out, Horwitz and her colleagues looked at more than 5,000 hospitalizations in the NYU Langone Health system between March and August. They adjusted for factors including age and other diseases, such as diabetes, to rule out the possibility that the numbers had dropped only because younger, healthier people were getting diagnosed. They found that death rates dropped for all groups, even older patients by 18 percentage points on average.

If you're hospitalized because of COVID, your chance of dying is a third of what it was at the begging of the pandemic, probably because of better treatment options.

Alan Turing Institute in the United Kingdom. He has conducted his own research of 21,000 hospitalized cases in England, which also found a similarly sharp drop in the death rate. The work, which will soon appear in the journal Critical Care Medicine and was released earlier in preprint, shows an unadjusted drop in death rates among hospitalized patients of around 20 percentage points since the worst days of the pandemic.

This was another problem with the herd immunity people in the spring--surely treatments would get better.

[Nintex]

Caught a bit of the COVID discussion on our public broadcasting channel

- Too much risk using Chinese vaccines, using a not properly tested vaccine up to our standards could backfire and bolster the anti-vaccine movement
- Virologist called for a total lock down of 4 weeks to curb the virus
- Cases still going up

In my town people are generally following the guidelines as best they can or at least there's an effort.
Today I went to a bigger city for a meeting I really couldn't skip and I was shocked at how people still didn't follow the basic guidelines.
Huddled up in groups on the streets, barely any masks etc. .
I was also surprised at how busy it was. Both on the road and in the city itself. It's quite different from the spring lock down so I don't see things changing anytime soon if it's the same in other cities.

[VomKriege]

Melania is cancelling campaign appearances because she has a lingering cough and COVID effects despite the reporting that she was asymptomatic, and also Trump keeps plugging Regeneron to his chud followers as the cure and better than a vaccine and he's going to make sure everyone can it it....yet his own wife, the first lady, couldn't get it and is still sick.

Melania has had campaign appearances?

She hasn't in I think I heard 16 months but she was scheduled to do some this week and had to cancel them

She had a long speech at the RNC, didn't she ?

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1318671172595306496
Black line: suicides
Gray Zone: range of expected suicide deaths based on 2015-2019 data
Dash line: suicides plus deaths under investigation