Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/viajoshhunt/status/1247742356104695809

Sounds like Japan is about to get slammed.

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/NidaQadirMD/status/1246953772657631235

such obvious propaganda from capitalists united states 

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1247745623270363138

[shosta]

watchdogs suggest that the real death toll could be in the millions

[james]

I could go for a spicy tuna roll right now, tell you what. 

I'm sure eating raw/marinated food is fine, but I have avoided Sushi, Poke, or any raw preparation since early March. And I miss it so much.

I caved on Saturday and got an Acai bowl

It's not my fault they're so delicious

[TEEEPO]

[OnlyRegret]

France: of 2000 ICU patients, 83% overweight

[team filler]

I could go for a spicy tuna roll right now, tell you what. 

I miss the blue fin six steps at sun sushi in santa barbara 

[VomKriege]

Sounds like Japan is about to get slammed.

I don't know if I read it here or elsewhere but there's apparently Japanese idiosyncracies that also may account for how they appear to manage the crisis from the outside : I believe the state of emergency that the central government can enact is toothless within their constitutional perimeter and some guy living over there mentioned that they have  some healthcare protocols that would not incite them to test more... Something about having to enter to the hospital everyone that undergo a test ?

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/DennisBlock/status/1247528726327259138

 

[remy]

https://twitter.com/DennisBlock/status/1247528726327259138

 

those poor landlords  :'(

[TEEEPO]

smile on my face
i wanna kill the fucking landlord

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/Garou_Hidalgo/status/1247764413853003778

[Rufus]

(Image removed from quote.)

https://twitter.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1247546857112436737

I don't make the rules. I don't even understand the rules.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

https://twitter.com/bitteranagram/status/1247603093753278466

👀

[close]

[VomKriege]

http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=287546

The Wednesday announcement follows infections reported in relation to a bar in Gangnam. A female employee and her roommate tested positive for the new coronavirus after the employee met Jung Yun-hak, the leader of K-pop boy band SUPERNOVA. Jung had tested positive after a visit to Japan.

[VomKriege]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-04-07/hospitals-washington-seize-coronavirus-supplies

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/n95-mask-supply-philadelphia-china-hospital-20200407.html

More supply clusterfucks.

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/Global_Netizen1/status/1247759207647985665

 

[Don Rumata]

(Image removed from quote.)

Incel cop triggered by seeing a couple. 

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/Ali_Kourani/status/1247636853228015619

 

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/Ali_Kourani/status/1247636853228015619

 

Whatever beard man, money goes brrrrrrr

Also you may think you are tough with martyrdom and shit but you have nothing on this deathcult

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1247707885536268291

[VomKriege]

The head of Health Regional Agency for the French Great East, that stated publicly that the plan to reduce beds and layoff staff for the Nancy in accordance to previous directions was still on track for next June, was demoted out of his position.

[bork]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1247763155834425344

 

[Great Rumbler]

It's somewhat comforting to know that people are stupid no matter what country they're from.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1830480/

Will be the leading cause of death for the US this week. 

[Akala]

the risk political issues in mitigating/flattening the curve was always that there was no winning aside from, you know, saving lives.

if shutting down and distancing works, then worst-case scenarios are wrong and people that opposed it can claim it was overblown.

[Tripon]

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/08/california-inks-nearly-1b-deal-to-buy-200-million-masks-each-month-1273702

d.

The state plans to spend $990 million in state funds on protective gear, according to a letter Newsom's Department of Finance sent to lawmakers late Tuesday. California must make a down payment of half that amount — $495 million — within the next 48 hours, Finance Director Keely Martin Bosler wrote.

$4.95 per mask.

[Madrun Badrun]

9$ per mask once the Kushner take his cut. 

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-52217426

UK is losing a lot of nurses (or I just havent seen the same thing for other countries)

[Ghoul]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-52217426

UK is losing a lot of nurses (or I just havent seen the same thing for other countries)

We're highlighting doctor and nurse deaths and a lot of other places are trying to hide them in the numbers.

Mainly due to the fact NHS is gov owned and not for profit.

[brawndolicious]

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1830480/

Will be the leading cause of death for the US this week. 

It may eclipse everything else combined in April.

I don't know what strategies are still possible to implement at this point but I feel like May will be the month when there'll be some commitment to taking a path for the rest of the year.

[VomKriege]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-52217426

UK is losing a lot of nurses (or I just havent seen the same thing for other countries)

It's horrible but I think we (the public, the media) get numb after a while. I know at least 5 doctors died in France and it's been reported but I don't remember seeing any further news. Several dozens health professionals in Italy at least, much to the sadness of everyone. A handful of big honchos directing regional or national agencies too. 15 or so doctors in China elevated to official martyrdom. I'm sure it's the same everywhere but constant reporting of it would really wreck everyone's morale because it's not like they have a choice anyway, PPE or not.

They will all be counted at the end of this and governments will be taken to task for everyone of those that could have been prevented.

[VomKriege]

A 300m bridge collapsed in Northern Italy (Genoa region... Again  ) but only one person lightly injured thanks to traffic being extremely sparse because of the lockdown.

[VomKriege]

Very grim UK numbers apparently (900+ ?), and that's only counting "deaths in hospitals" if I'm correct.

[Ghoul]

Very grim UK numbers apparently (900+ ?), and that's only counting "deaths in hospitals" if I'm correct.

Yeah like I said yesterday deaths are not actually daily a lot I would guess are a lag from the super low 200-ish number on Monday.

[CatsCatsCats]

And you know, people aren’t being nice enough to die in an orderly even fashion

[Madrun Badrun]

Bet the Germans are.

[VomKriege]

It's too early to tell if the UK was bitten in the ass for its early policy in this and / or because the NHS has been rationally streamlined too well but it's hard not to think it is playing a part.

[Madrun Badrun]

"Boy, I sure do love living in Canada which is way better than our Southern neighbor at social welfare!"



(Image removed from quote.)

"Boy, I sure do love living in Canada which is way better than our Southern neighbor at social welfare!"



(Image removed from quote.)

The difference is, I'm pretty sure the government underestimated the number of people who would not be covered by CERB, rather than willful neglect and I'd expect this to be rectified and post-dated now that it become a known issue (people were really just figuring out the details last week, and I just heard of the 1/3 not being covered about Friday).  Also, the people making up this group seem to be long-term unemployed and students.  Not saying that they are not in critical need of income but my guess is they are in less need than people who have an unexpected loss of income because of this. 

from today https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/trudeau-says-help-coming-for-students-unable-to-find-summer-jobs-1.4883310

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-covid19-benefits-trudeau-1.5523052

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/pm-trudeau-updates-wage-subsidy-and-aid-for-students-will-attend-cabinet-in-person-1.4887926

The government has also announced temporary changes to the Canada Summer Jobs program. Now, employers who hire summer students can apply for a subsidy of up to 100 per cent to cover the cost, helping create up to 70,000 jobs for Canadians between the ages of 15 and 30.

The time frame for the job placements are also being extended until the winter, given some jobs will “start later than usual,” Trudeau said. The student hires can also be employed part-time, given many businesses have had to scale back their operations.

[Madrun Badrun]

[VomKriege]

Italy and Spain are doing better at least. But this will have a long tail...

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1247901301872013326

[shosta]

yes, there are trials suggesting it has no significant effect, some suggesting it only works on people with serious illness but not mild symptoms, and some suggesting it will only work on those with mild conditions but can't help the seriously ill

[Madrun Badrun]

NY just reported 780 deaths.

[shosta]

Is that over 24 hours? And is that less than the previous day?

[Madrun Badrun]

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/so-easy-i-thought-it-was-fake-cras-cerb-system-gets-stellar-reviews-in-first-days-of-operation

So easy I thought it was fake': CRA’s CERB system gets stellar reviews in first days of operation

[Madrun Badrun]

Is that over 24 hours? And is that less than the previous day?

yes, and 50 more than yesterday. 

[VomKriege]

Is that over 24 hours? And is that less than the previous day?

Yes. Though it may get updated further later today...
More than yesterday and it's the highest daily report yet AFAIK.

New York will probably peak within the week hopefully since stay at home was passed on March 22, but as seen with Italy and Spain, the number of deaths will keep steady though below the peak for at least a week.

[Mandark]

There's absolutely nothing I can do to change anything, and daily totals are misleading because they fluctuate so a smoothed average would be better, and I still find myself checking Worldometers and stressing myself out unnecessarily every couple hours.

[Madrun Badrun]

While smoothed averages will be better, I don't know how valid they are with exponential data. 

[shosta]

I think he means a smooth average over the log, to know if the growth trend is changing

[VomKriege]

The rate of new hospital check ins has been slowing down though so there's that.
The lag and inertia induced by the incubation and long sickness make it excruciating but it should be trending in the right direction at one point.

But yeah expect 2500 deaths more in NYS by Monday.

[shosta]

Am I wrong that you should still expect total deaths to double from the time of peak deaths, at minimum? And the tail is heavier so it should be even more than that. Meaning if at peak deaths we're at 20,000, the final death toll will still be like 40k or more.

[Madrun Badrun]

I think he means a smooth average over the log, to know if the growth trend is changing

Ya, see I find those more reassuring, but at the same when the underlying rate is exponential, I feel like its miss leading to feeling like we are doing better if the rate changes from 3 days to 4 days when the death toll is already really high.  It kind of hides the tragedy if that makes sense. 

[shosta]

We're all mathematically literate here and the rate of growth slowing is doing better

[VomKriege]

Am I wrong that you should still expect total deaths to double from the time of peak deaths, at minimum? And the tail is heavier so it should be even more than that. Meaning if at peak deaths we're at 20,000, the final death toll will still be like 40k or more.

I don't know about the exact proportion but yes probably. Italy, Spain and hopefully France, Belgium will give a clearer idea by April's end.

But as I said : probably a week or so with daily reported deaths steady, and then a slow decrease over one or two weeks. Probably not to 0 either but with hospitals being able to cope. Plus probably some backlog deaths that never reached the healthcare system (at home, elder's care institutions).

Double might be conservative, even.

[VomKriege]

New Jersey is also having a rough time. Last two days reports account for 1/3 of all deaths so far.

[VomKriege]

Looked at Italy and they peaked at 919 deaths reported on March 27th. It's been slowly decreasing since but we're still at 542 reported today 11 or 12 days after... So yeah, 21 to 28 days to reduce casualties by 2/3 seems the right ballpark.

Edit : Spain look a bit different, day with the highest total is maybe not the best cutoff point, but that should be fairly similar. They seem to have peaked 3 to 5 days after Italy. France peaked on the 6th or the 3rd of April, hopefully.

[CatsCatsCats]

Hey, uh, when is that money printer gonna go, anyway?

[VomKriege]

Hey, uh, when is that money printer gonna go, anyway?

Oh it's going alright.
Trickling down to plebeians has the same lag as COVID19 stats however.

[Tripon]

Hey, uh, when is that money printer gonna go, anyway?

Oh it's going alright.
Trickling down to plebeians has the same lag as COVID19 stats however.

I'm lucky enough to keep my job working from home, and I gotta say, this duality of politicians complaining about the millions of people on the unemployment rolls and then refusing to even entertain paying employers on a much larger scale so they can keep employees on the payrolls is maddening.

[VomKriege]

17 more beds in ICU had to be allocated in France today, for a total of 7100k or so occupied, which should hopefully be the peak of the strain on hospitals. Less people total are being entered in ICU too on absolute terms (under 500 today...), and the recoveries are freeing beds.

I don't think the French government did a good job but relative to how far we were on that curve, they did lockdown slightly earlier than Italy (with the benefit of their example) and we may have peaked at 600 deaths a day in hospitals instead of 750-900.
Small mercies.