International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[VomKriege]

French Presidential Election Update :

Fillon is now accusing the financial prosecutors of "violationg the separation of powers" 
The Canard Enchainé, which published a lot of the current info, is now claiming Fillon's wife had a severance package of 45k euros too. "A lie" according to Fillon. He's contesting the sum of a few figures (as he produced some of the paperwork).

The Socialist Party has announced it will exclude any Socialist deciding to support Macron.

Speaking of Macron, rumors of an affair with the president of Radio France (French public radio) Matthieu Gallet made the rounds with mentions of potential pictures proving it. Apparently it's a months old thing ? Supposedly fighting it is why Macron made so much covers of Paris Match with his wife recently. "I have nothing to hide" he said in a meeting of his supporters he invited himself into. "I spent my days and nights with her, she wonders where I would find the time [to have a secret life]" (...) "And I never paid her for that !".

Macron gay ?

Former President Sarkozy should stand trial for the so-called Bygmalion affair, where some money were funneled from his party to the Bygmalion company, a contractor founded by another highranking member of said party, supposedly to organize some of the events of Sarkozy's 2012 campaign : a lot of the bills don't match with any real work done and the money went *poof*, probably in some pockets or to generate a slush fund.

[Samson Manhug]

What is the French media reporting about this call, if anything, VomKriege?

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-foreign-leaders-phone-calls-234770

[Raist]

Not sure why they're reporting on this now considering the call was on Jan 28th.

Major papers (Le Monde, Le Figaro) ore or less all reported the same stuff based on the official PR from the Elysée (the president's office). Was mostly focused on what Hollande said though.

- France will keep its stance on a strong EU, particularly for matters of defense. NATO are the UN are critical organizations.

- Protectionnism is bad

- Climate change is no joke.

- Committed to the fight against terrorism, Syria etc.

[VomKriege]

I'm not sure of the exact reporting, I think Raist summed up things well. Radio France International for instance has a cursory, neutral, paraphrasing of Trump's points ("The US president reassured France and Germany of his commitmebt to NATO but insisted each member had to pay its fair share"). Purely diplomatic communications will probably be filtered in polite terms as they ever were.

[Samson Manhug]

That's what normal happens in the US too but now either White House staff is leaks like a sieve or the papers have good imaginations.

[Raist]

Sooo the Commons have voted on a number of Brexit bills.

These included Labour MP Harriet Harman's bid to protect the residence rights of EU citizens in the UK, which was outvoted by 332 votes to 290, with three Conservative MPs rebelling.

 

And of course...

Tory MPs have defeated a law that would have shown whether Brexit will hand £350million a week to the NHS.
The bid was voted down by 337 votes to 288 tonight despite a campaign by arch-Remainer Chuka Umunna.

A Liberal Democrat bid for a referendum on the terms of the UK leaving the EU was defeated by 340 votes to 33.

(I assume there's a typo there)


All according to keikaku etc.

[Syph]

I'm not sure of the exact reporting, I think Raist summed up things well. Radio France International for instance has a cursory, neutral, paraphrasing of Trump's points ("The US president reassured France and Germany of his commitmebt to NATO but insisted each member had to pay its fair share"). Purely diplomatic communications will probably be filtered in polite terms as they ever were.

I mean, bitching and alarmist reactions aside, certain countries DO need to pay at least the minimum.
Now, there's a better way to communicate that point, but that doesn't make it less true.

[Momo]

Top this motherfuckers

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38923415

[Cerveza mas fina]

I'm kind of disgusted what British defence sec. said about there being no need for a second Scotland referendum and the Scottish government better off focusing on their economy.

Surely the situation has changed so much since 2014 they deserve a second go.

As do the people in Northern Ireland now that the borders will be shut again.

[Raist]

There was so much uncertainty around the status of an independent Scotland in regards to the EU that it definitely tipped the scale in favour of not leaving the UK. Which of course, Westminster back then used at will. But now they're preaching "b-b-but we're a union :'("

They'll never shut the border down between NI and the RoI. No one's gonna touch that one with a 10 foot pole. But if Scotland leaves, assuming they even get a 2nd referendum, they'll just stay out of Schengen and join the CTA.

[Cerveza mas fina]

UUh they cannot not shut the border Raist. If NI is not in the EU every car will have to be stopped and every truck inspected.

There is no way not to have a close border without checks between EU and non EU members.

Anything else is based on false hope, as there is no way there will be unregulated travel from and to the EU 

Like hey we leave the trade union, but you can still smuggle shit across in Ireland to avoid tariffs 

The UK wanted out, they are out, if NI wants to leave the UK and join the EU they are free to do so.

[Raist]

Well yeah, that will causes some issues, it being a hole. Note that the RoI is not in the Schengen area, so there will be some degree of checks regardless.

Trust me, they'll never ever shut the border between the republic and NI. Too much historical baggage, it would be a disaster. Even if they do, smuggling will always be an option anyway. Unless they build a wall. They'll just deal with the minimum risks rather than opening that massive can of worms.

[Cerveza mas fina]

I don't think you understand? There is no open borders between EU and non EU members. There can't be an excemption as there will be a hole in the fence. So migrants can enter UK, goods can enter EU. It's not going to happen. Ever.

Trust me. There is none and there will be none. Ireland is once again the victim of the UK. It sucks as Ireland is nice and peaceful now, but you can trust the UK to fuck it up as usual.

As if the UK cares about the peace process 

[Kara]

Everyone born in the rump of the Ulster Plantation is entitled to Irish citizenship. Enforcing that border is impossible.

e: To people who are white, obv. #ThankHeavenForTwentySeven

[Raist]

That extends all the way back to at least one grandparent, too.

[Samson Manhug]

I don't think you understand? There is no open borders between EU and non EU members. There can't be an excemption as there will be a hole in the fence. So migrants can enter UK, goods can enter EU. It's not going to happen. Ever.

Trust me. There is none and there will be none. Ireland is once again the victim of the UK. It sucks as Ireland is nice and peaceful now, but you can trust the UK to fuck it up as usual.

As if the UK cares about the peace process 

Aren’t there already non-members of the EU that have passport-free border control? Like Switzerland, Norway, etc.?

[Cerveza mas fina]

nope, still normal borders mate

Everyone born in the rump of the Ulster Plantation is entitled to Irish citizenship. Enforcing that border is impossible.

e: To people who are white, obv. #ThankHeavenForTwentySeven

oh yeah right that entitlement is totally written into stone just like the uk being in the eu

even if everyone in NI had a EU passport there would be a hard border because the state of NI is not in the EU etc etc etc

you guys actually think it will be like no where you just get on the train from dublin and get off in belfast with no fuss  or just drive up north or down south without a border?

sure sure here is 25 trucks full of duty free cigs from trumps america entering the eu via the M1 with no border control

or sure here is 5000 refugees a day just walking into the UK

the crossings will be closed and monitored just like back kn the day, prior agreements or not

[Cerveza mas fina]

you will have to check every car and truck, even if its only to see papers

border will be no different then ukraine/poland border now

there is no way around it

[Samson Manhug]

nope, still normal borders mate

Are you familiar with the Schengen Area?

[Raist]

you will have to check every car and truck, even if its only to see papers

border will be no different then ukraine/poland border now

there is no way around it

You are aware that Ireland is an island, and the RoI is not part of the Schengen area, right?

Conversely, Norway, Iceland (part of the EEA but not the EU) and Switzerland are part of Schengen. Hence no border controls whatsoever.

[Cerveza mas fina]

yeah but you still get checked lol, also the uk is stepping out of free movement of people by choice

ive been to norway etc and lived in ireland so I know how it works

norway also has to play by all eu rules and pay contribution, dont think england is up for that...

[Cerveza mas fina]

having open borders means there is a trade agreement for free movement of people and goods, the things the uk is stepping out of, and Norway and Switserlnd pay fees for to have access to

so no there wont be an open border unless the uk accepts free movement, which is the whole reason they left

[Fifstar]

Lager, what do you mean by "no open borders between eu and non eu states"? Of course there are open borders, at least for people. There are no regular passport controls between Switzerland and EU States, only spot tests, and I think it's the same for Norway? Only goods get checked.

[Cerveza mas fina]

You can still get checked also as im saying that is with countriss that pay for it aaaaand accept free movement which is the sole reason uk is stepping out

[Cerveza mas fina]

Verhofstadt said that he was concerned about the ramifications for the peace process in Northern Ireland following the UK’s withdrawal. “Everybody is anxious and saying we don’t want to return to the past. If you take Brexit as it is then, yes, you create a hard border again.

[the freakin woz]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832694887321460736

[VomKriege]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/17/suspect-north-korea-killing-thought-she-was-taking-part-in-tv-prank-indonesia-siti-aisyah-police-kim-jong-nam

An Indonesian woman arrested for suspected involvement in the killing of the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s half-brother in Malaysia was duped into thinking she was part of a comedy show prank, Indonesia’s national police chief has said, citing information received from Malaysian authorities.

"It's just a prank bro"

[Great Rumbler]

From what I'd read in another article that girl, and maybe a few others, had actually participated in "dry runs" where they did that to other random people [with spritzer bottles of just plain water, probably], so I could see this turning out to be true.

[Madrun Badrun]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-north-korea-sanctions-coal-economics-nuclear-tests-kim-jong-nam-donald-trump-a7587931.html

reaction to the recent assassination? 

[Syph]

HAHAHAHAHA

[Raist]

Is that Milo?

[Raist]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39031546

The proposals have been made by NHS bosses as part of a national programme to transform the health service and save money across 44 different areas.

The BBC found 28 affect hospital care, from full closures to centralising services such as accident and emergency and stroke care on fewer sites.

Ministers argue patients will receive better care in the community.

But...

[Cerveza mas fina]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhahahahahhahahahahahhaa

[Rufus]

What a bleeding shame.

Next step: "Look, they're not doing a great job (now that we've fucked them). We should consider further reforms."

[Brehvolution]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/donald-trump-uk-state-visit-speaker-address-parliament-a7565651.html

[VomKriege]

Haven't done this recently because of less time, but the French presidential election update :

Fillon is soldiering through the scandal. Inquiries have been transmitted from the financial police to three inquiry judges (who will lead investigation both for prosecution and defence). Somehow, the spin doctors are saying it's good because the cops were biased or something, despite the justice probes now being directed at half a dozen different set of facts.

François Bayrou, the usual Christian Democrat fifth wheel of presidential election, has decided not to run and have met with Emmanuel Macron.

The Green Party struck a deal with the Socialists and agreed to withdraw their candidate (probably in exchange of guaranteed backing of some Green candidates for Parliament, as per usual).

[Raist]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/donald-trump-uk-state-visit-speaker-address-parliament-a7565651.html

I guess a whole bunch of MPs won't be able to open their mouth in Westminster then?

[VomKriege]

Also, far right's Marine Le Pen is actually implicated in a couple of inquiries about occult funding or spending abuse. Her cabinet head was indicted, Le Pen is suspected among other things to have misused Europarliament funds destined to hire parlamientary assistants and she even refused to present herself to the police despite having received an official convocation (and confirmed she will not do so until after the legislative election). Judges are trying to interfere in the election, she said, they should know their place is to interpret existing laws, not create new ones, etc...

Of course, considering her party's schtick is "all politicians are corrupt, we have clean hands, our heads are held high, we stand tall in our boots", her voters are obviously outr... wait, no, actually they don't care. They never cared, despite the Le Pen family dubious personal enrichment through their political activities.

Democracy !

[Syph]

Haven't followed things as closely as you (thanks for the continued updates btw) but barring (god forbid) a terrorist attack on home soil, isn't the election highly likely to play out as the following: Le Pen wins first round, then the left rallies together in the second round and she is unable to win?

Or is there room for new developments

[VomKriege]

Haven't followed things as closely as you (thanks for the continued updates btw) but barring (god forbid) a terrorist attack on home soil, isn't the election highly likely to play out as the following: Le Pen wins first round, then the left rallies together in the second round and she is unable to win?

Or is there room for new developments

It's the expected scenario.
Until it isn't and she wins.
I mean her being the already projected winner of the first round, aka the most popular candidate on her own forces, is kinda bad already.
It also doesn't bode well for the other elections, in particular members of the National Assembly which are decided upon just a few weeks later. Strict quarantining has held so far and left the FN for almost no presence in the legislative branch, but it will break at one point.

[VomKriege]

Fillon is going full distinguished mentally-challenged fellow now. Amidst his convocation by judges "to determine indictment" he's calling for a massive support gathering at the Trocadéro (nearby the Eiffel Tower) this sunday. Valeurs Actuelles, a hard right outlet, is calling it "a protest against the Coup d'Etat by red judges". Fillon is less overt but that's really the message here. There have been scores of defections as well, including his spokeperson.

[Rufus]

The demonisation of the word "no" is reaching new, seemingly absurd levels.

Anti-smoking leaflets prepared by the Ministry of Health were suddenly withdrawn because they contained the word "hayir" - "no" - in red capital letters. A government MP said "they could be misunderstood".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39064657

Couple days old now, but wha...?

[benjipwns]

Fillon is going full distinguished mentally-challenged fellow now. Amidst his convocation by judges "to determine indictment" he's calling for a massive support gathering at the Trocadéro (nearby the Eiffel Tower) this sunday. Valeurs Actuelles, a hard right outlet, is calling it "a protest against the Coup d'Etat by red judges". Fillon is less overt but that's really the message here. There have been scores of defections as well, including his spokeperson.

had to restart this post because i initially started it thinking you were talking about Nathan Fillion

[VomKriege]

Well, actually there's some similarities...

French Presidential Telenovela Update : Today, the shifty Fillon won.
Well, he "won" in the sense that he won't have to step down. Juppé went on TV to say he would not, in any case, be a candidate so there's no backup plan anyway. So the party line is now to unite behind Fillon. He still lot his spokesperson, his campaign manager, former Chirac's prime minister Dominique De Villepin stated in interview he cannot vote for Fillon and he's still under justice examination

Maybe politics will be more audible now.

Macron at last unveiled his program : He's planning on reducing the public servants workforce by 120.000 yet promises to hire 5000 more teachers and 10000 cops.
He wants to reduce taxes on corporations, the highly symbolic tax on high wealth (by only calculating it using real estate assets) and supress the inhabitation tax (paid once a year by all tenants).
He's careful not to go too far but still, he wants to have a single regime for unemployment benefits and pensions (for a more "transparent" and "efficient" system) without pushing back the age of retirement. 20 years ago, the Juppé government basically soft locked the country with strikes when they tried to end specific pensions.
Quite a bit of observers are peeved with the messianic undertones of his campaign but really that's par for the course in France.

[Kara]

Fillon is going full distinguished mentally-challenged fellow now. Amidst his convocation by judges "to determine indictment" he's calling for a massive support gathering at the Trocadéro (nearby the Eiffel Tower) this sunday. Valeurs Actuelles, a hard right outlet, is calling it "a protest against the Coup d'Etat by red judges". Fillon is less overt but that's really the message here. There have been scores of defections as well, including his spokeperson.

had to restart this post because i initially started it thinking you were talking about Nathan Fillion

I always read Macron as macaron.

[Samson Manhug]

This isn't in the news yet for some reason, but the 75th Ranger Regiment rolled into Syria a few days ago. Boots on the ground, so to speak.

https://sofrep.com/76380/75th-ranger-regiment-hits-ground-syria-raqqa-offensive/

If I had to guess, I'd say they are going to be staying here:

https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/838466514340757504

I'll try to do a proper write up on this later tonight at Insurgentsia.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://qz.com/926076/in-a-matter-of-hours-the-korean-peninsula-fell-into-a-state-of-geopolitical-tumult/

[Great Rumbler]

https://qz.com/926076/in-a-matter-of-hours-the-korean-peninsula-fell-into-a-state-of-geopolitical-tumult/

Really not looking forward to seeing how Trump is going to handle all this.

[Cerveza mas fina]

prob just tweets

[VomKriege]

The (socialist) former mayor of Paris has declared support to Macron instead of the party candidate Hamon whose program he deems "dangerous". Supposedly the Socialist Party must expel Macronists per the statement if the First Secretary Cambadélis, but he's kind of a poor's man Hollande and he probably not strong enough (nor willing) to oust "moderates" for a "radical".

Several Hollande loyalists including sitting ministers and former National Assembly president Bartolone have expressed their doubts too (without outright endorsing Macron).

On the other side, the center right faction affiliated to Fillon's party accepted to renew support to Fillon under conditions. Word is that Fillon has been told to tone down the refuge in populist audacity against the media and justice.

Several candidates have provided the mandatory 500+ endorsements by elected officials you need to enter the race, including Troskyist Nathalie Arthaud. The only two major ones not yet there are Le Pen (less than 20 signatures to find) and Mélenchon.

TLDR : French parties are about to explode.

[Raist]

A bill in favour of having Parliament vote on the final Brexit deal was rejected in the Commons when they voted to allow the government to trigger article 50, but has been passed in the House of Lords. So now as per the usual process, it will go back to the Commons. This puts May on the spot and might delay the process. Fun times.

[Samson Manhug]

The US is invading Syria and it's not on TV

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/03/08/marines-have-arrived-in-syria-to-fire-artillery-in-the-fight-for-raqqa/?utm_term=.8ada16da6c52

[VomKriege]

I mean US and European troops are stationed in Irak (French artillery platoon IIRC) and engaged in fighting and it's barely on the news too.

[VomKriege]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16E15H

That Christian core of European high minded ideals

[Raist]

Straight outta Yurop episode 53

The Lords backed down on their proposed amendments to allow for a referendum on the Brexit deal and guaranteeing residency for EU citizens who currently live in the UK, and passed the bill - meaning they also gave power to the government to trigger A50 (which should happen by the end of the month).

Sturgeon will request a second independence referendum to be held in late 2018 / early 2019. Highly doubt May is going to roll with it.


Edit:

[VomKriege]

Well, Fillon is indicted on at least four counts. Won't step down though. All of the suspect laundry is being tossed out in public from undisclosed loans to receiving close of 50.000e worth of suits as gifts from someone (identity not publicized).

[Kara]

lel, Tusk was reelected?

[benjipwns]

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who was not invited, denounced the debate as a "rape of democracy,

[benjipwns]

i think France could do better and get all five major candidates facing charges of some kind before the first debate, they have five whole days!

[Kara]

i think France could do better and get all five major candidates facing charges of some kind before the first debate, they have five whole days!

35 hour workweek doe