International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[Corporal]

Forum's screwy right now, no?

Demi should spend less time relaxing on /r/etc, and more on the bore, being stressed. It's for his own good. I think. Maybe. Anger helps motivate you to do better in video games.

On topic: I think more countries should follow the UK. Keeping an easily searchable database with morally and legally concerning acts of politicians from your own party should be a requirement.
But damn, that list is some proper shitshow.

[benjipwns]

urls that contain certain characters (i think "#" "-" "?" are some of the potential culprits) are breaking the auto-function which "saves" the forum from posts with bad code by erasing it, doesn't seem like anything demi has done recently should be doing this

[Valhelm]

damn I'll remember that when posting links in the future

[VomKriege]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-03/egyptian-tv-presenter-jailed-for-discussing-unmarried-sex/9114652?pfmredir=sm

 

[Leadbelly]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-03/egyptian-tv-presenter-jailed-for-discussing-unmarried-sex/9114652?pfmredir=sm

 

Just take him to the nearest tall building and chuck him off for goodness sake.

[Syph]

Lebanese PM Hariri resigns, saying he fears assassination plot

[Broseidon]

Wouldn't be surprised given they blew up his dad, though the fact he did it whilst in KSA was probably to send a message (and likely under pressure from the Saudis) for some reason. Perhaps they are trying a new approach to countering Iran? I wonder what MbS is up to.

Speaking of which

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/926911951426539520

[VomKriege]

What's amazing with Lebanon is that despite (or because) of the arcane political gridlock, it looks like of the less oppressive place to live in the region. Well, save for the gruesome civil war back then 

[Corporal]

Trump and the Trump-led US likes the prince that's doing the arrests, so I am guessing Saudi Arabia is on its way to a terrible future?

...

Random stuff!

Police nabbed 260 protesters of an illegal anti Putin rally in Moscow. Gotta respect those brave souls.

Also, oh-boy-oh-boy, those Paradise Papers. Barely anything happened after the Panama Papers, so I don't expect any great fallout, but it's always interesting to get a look at such behind the scenes stuff.

[toku]

https://twitter.com/johnarterbury/status/927262814250684416

how convenient

 

[Raist]

Surely an unfortunate incident

[Corporal]

What a terrible ACCIDENT.

[VomKriege]

I wouldn't necessarily look into a sinister cause for a chopper crash. Air accidents killing famous people are semi regular events.

The Panama Papers toppled Iceland government and put into jeopardy a recently departed Pakistani prime minister (don't remember if it was the cause of him stepping down). I don't think it's fair to say they had no consequences.

[Valhelm]

Lebanese PM Hariri resigns, saying he fears assassination plot

seems like bullshit

My guess is that Mohammed bin Sultan is giving up on Lebanon because the whole country is basically wedded to Hezbollah. There's not much point in trying to stay friendly with Lebanon if you'd rather be friendly with Israel. Saad Hariri was effectively a Saudi puppet and one of the only members of the government opposed to Hezbollah and Iranian influence.

MBS probably recognizes that for Saudi to remain a major Arab power, they need to stop behaving like a "normal" Arab country. Instead they have to imitate their closest non-Arab buddies, Israel and the USA. This means no more anti-Zionism, no more feigned interest in the conditions of Palestinians, and maybe even no more support for radical Sunni groups that don't work with the CIA. If this plan succeeds, Saudi Arabia will benefit more strongly from their ties with the West and might enjoy a more rapidly growing and diversified economy.

What I don't understand is why this happened the same day as the arrests in Riyadh. There doesn't seem to be an immediately obvious connection, unless MBS somehow thought doing an apparent power grab at home would take attention away from this apparent retreat in Lebanon.

[Valhelm]

are you rly suggesting that Saudi Arabia has not been pivoting toward Israel over the past 20 years

Saudi still keeps up the kayfabe of anti-Zionism (through meaningless pro-Palestinian statements and state antisemitism) but they've done almost nothing to threaten Israeli influence in the region. Because Saudi Arabia and Israeli are both so reliant on America and so threatened by Iran, warm relations are natural and necessary. Religious and ideological differences can be pretty easily put aside in a context like this.

both Israeli and Saudi officials will admit this without much hesitation

[VomKriege]

(he's saubi)

[HardcoreRetro]

Proud of the Netherlands for making the top spot as a tax haven on the Paradise Papers.

[thehunter116]

The super rich suck.

[HardcoreRetro]

Proud of the Netherlands for making the top spot as a tax haven on the Paradise Papers.

Where can I read about that? I'm not seeing anything that suggests Netherlands is a 'top spot'.

Think the guy I got it from was actually talking about an older article.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/these-five-countries-are-conduits-for-the-worlds-biggest_us_5975f0aee4b0f1feb89b4500

"The Netherlands and the United Kingdom also play a crucial – although a heretofore obscure – role in the tax-avoidance game, acting as conduits for corporate profits as they make their way to tax havens."

"We found that a handful of big countries – the Netherlands, the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and Ireland – serve as the world’s conduit OFCs. Together, these five conduits channel 47% of corporate offshore investment from tax havens, according to the data we analysed.

The Netherlands leads the pack with 23%"

[etiolate]

More bombings in Sweden

Plane with Saudi prince crashes

[thehunter116]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/927355812888088576?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FAP%2Fstatus%2F927355812888088576

So this is getting alarmingly serious.

[curly]

So in the last 48 hours or so Saudi Arabia has possibly forced Lebanon's PM to resign, purged rivals to the crown prince, had a high-ranking prince die in a helicopter crash, and threatened to go to war with Iran? Busy kingdom.

[VomKriege]

Lebanese president will wait for Hariri to return home and explain himself before accepting a resignation.
The problem is that if Saudi is actively pressuring behind the scenes, I guess it could be an issue finding a Sunni politician willing to take the office. IIRC Hariri ascended after much difficulties to form a government already. This would immobilize Lebanon more than it is in general.

Taking a look at L'Orient Le Jour (Lebanese newspaper), the sudden resignation is as mysterious for them (Hezbollah included) than it is for any outside observers. The major worry is Lebanon being engulfed as an hotter proxy battlefield than it is now.

[toku]

Did SA just declare war on Lebanon?

https://twitter.com/gert_lang_/status/927640184442818560

[Rufus]

You followed Guile's advice. :c

[VomKriege]

Charlie Hebdo received more death threats for its latest cover depicting Tariq Ramadan (a Muslim thinker, teacher at Oxford, grandson of an important future in the Muslim brotherhood, seen in France as a Muslim conservative and often with suspicion... Recently accused of rape by multiple women) with a giant boner and saying for his defense that he is the 6th pillar of Islam.

[shosta]

Does anyone know if that blockade of UAE is still ongoing?

[curly]

Qatar? Yeah it is

[shosta]

I know Saudi Arabia's military is large but it seems like quite the endeavor to have that kind of action everywhere. Lebanon, Qatar, Yemen, and potentially Iran. Could get in a fight with Syria if it's really serious about alliance-shifting in Lebanon.

[HardcoreRetro]

I was getting worried we (The Netherlands) wouldn't show up in the Paradise Papers. Trouw is on the case though.

https://www.trouw.nl/home/waar-je-je-nike-s-ook-koopt-de-kassa-rinkelt-in-holland~a0167497/

Think they got more shit on us.

Sing along with me: "We zijn er weer bij en dat is prima! Viva Hollandia!"

[VomKriege]

Lebanese PM Hariri (Possibly still acting as President Aoun will only consider his step down when he is at home*) is now flying to Abou Dhabi and may also meet the King of Bahreïn.


Guy doesn't seem too eager to mend the political crisis he triggered & fly back home to his country who is now under barely veiled threats of violent meddling by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Reading further local articles seems to wield that an assassination attempt was uncovered and not by Lebanese intelligence but thanks to tips by a "trusted" ally (attributed to the former/current Ministry of Interior).
Things are even more confusing as Hariri apparently did make a few days earlier a quick trip to KSA (and took a selfie with the KSA Minister of Gulf Affairs) and came back with guarded optimism that KSA was commited to Lebanese stability and all the cabinet statements recently implied they expected to manage domestic affairs for the months to come (elections in May).

His fateful trip to Saudi was not planned, he left in his private plane without his usual team save for his security detail, didn't contact anyone until the TV broadcast to announce his resigation and acquaintances of Hariri are adamant he didn't gave the announcement from his residence in the Saudi capital.

* However Lebanese constitutionalists are debating the issue, as the constitution doesn't mention any specific form to follow to quit the PM office. Some argue reasonably that while the text doesn't mention anything, quitting the Prime Minister office should follow the same rules than any other public servant, namely that it has to be formally accepted. The Presidency of Lebanon could also argue given the unusual circumstances that they need to make sure Hariri wasn't coerced.

[HardcoreRetro]

I still don't get why afro-american history gets transposed on the zwarte piet thing though. As far as I can tell the minstrel show wasn't really a thing over here in the Netherlands. I'd find this entire discussion millions of times more interresting if it was actually looked at through a dutch-historic lens. I don't care if it stays or goes, but I'd enjoy these discussions a lot more if the entire thing wasn't just based on knee-jerk reactions.

[VomKriege]

Court of Justice in Nanterre, France, rejected a defamation claim by the state of Azerbaïdjan against the public network France Télévisions which produced and aired a report calling it a brutal dictatorship.

[VomKriege]

Air pollution so bad in New Delhi schools are closed for a week.

[VomKriege]

French President Macron is in Abou Dhabi for the opening of the Abou Dabhi Louvre museum. Following a concurrent policy of cultural projection to Qatar, the emirate sealed a deal to use the name of the most famous French museum some years ago. A very lucrative, and reportedly unorthodox in some respects as far as the world of museum go, deal that's supposed to trickle down 1 billion euros o France over 30 years (400m for lending the name, 180m of planned expenses to "borrow" art pieces from a consortium of 13 French museums and I guess other costs like the bills for french architect Jean Nouvel).
Ultimately two other museums, includicing a Abou Dhabi Guggenheim, are supposed to stand there on the same small island but those suffered large delays and construction work hasn't begun yet.
On the cultural front, Paris university La Sorbonne also has a subsidiary over there.
There's some grumbling in France on the matter of associating French culture to a petro-monarchy. It's obvious money was a major impetus in the project because otherwise more "respectable" (rightly or wrongly) partners usully get those sort of nods.

Of course it's not all for the love of art : the UAE, and chiefly Abou Dhabi, is a major partner to France. It ranks high in import / export for the region (second for France), biggest French expatriate population in the Gulf, it has a defensive alliance accord with France and it now houses the only French permanent foreign military base outside of Africa. Both parties are probably eager to celebrate those ties, especially the Emiratis since rival Qatar has invested massively in France (famously buying the Paris Saint-Germain football club) in an effort to curry favors.

[Valhelm]

Hey how important is Francafrique to the French economy? Are investments and resource-extraction schemes in Africa still a huge part of the GDP?

[VomKriege]

Hey how important is Francafrique to the French economy? Are investments and resource-extraction schemes in Africa still a huge part of the GDP?

It's not a huge (in the literal sense) part and there's a lot of pushback by historians on the myth of colonial profitability. I don't have any numbers to offer you however. Nonetheless Africa is still an important plank to France. To cite a few famous examples : the control share of Bolloré in several major ports, oil fields in Gabon, gas in Algeria IIRC and the uranium in Niger. The latest is the one closer to being strategic as France has a backbone of nuclear plants, the other examples has transitioned completely to the profit of French private businesses. I'm also sure that a myriad of smaller contracts benefit handsomely to big and medium French companies.
I'm fairly certain it's not a major market for weapons systems however, despite the entanglement of defence accords. French defence industry bowed out of the small arms industry mostly (there's still ammo supplying and such). Biggest markets are the Gulf and the subcontinent who buys pricey fighter jets or submarines.

It's still an healthy source of shadow financing for French politics and the dubious network of brokers is doing ok. Families of African dictators get routinely sued for the money they divested to buy fancy property in France.

It's also still the main outside theater of operations for the French army, as mentioned above. Things get reshuffled on the regular but there's always thousands of French troops roaming the continent out of a few permanent bases. Most notably in and around the Sahel, Libreville and Djibouti still. Obviously to fulfill our obligations and to defend interests and the large expatriate communities (though French expatriates in Africa accounts for 7,3% of the total and is slightly behind the Middle East / Gulf and Asia / Oceania who both sits at 8%).

So still major, especially in a geopolitical sense, but arguably the Gulf is more lucrative relatively as far as exports go. France has long standing relations there and it only rose in prominence with Qatar aggressive investing.

The US and especially China have made forays in Africa, Francafrique is not nearly as hegemonic as it was nor as important, but the fact is we're bound by blood for better and worse with former French Africa and the informal network is solid.

Not to wax poetic on imperialism but when shit hits the fan not a lot of Western powers seem especially eager to commit potential blood to do anything. Especially in Sahel even though it's arguably of strategic importance to Europe to not let terrorists fester so close to Med shores and to alleviate instability that only create more refugees.

[VomKriege]

To add quickly to the previous posts : The biggest share of trade is done with European partners (chiefly Germany), first world economies, Russia and China. Those accounts for two thirds of the trade. To note however is that it seems that import/export balance is beneficial to France in most of the African continent (while hugely in the tank in China due to the humongous volume of imports from there).

[Valhelm]

How do different political groups (nationalists, centrists, socialists, France Insoumise) feel about this special relationship? Is it unacceptable to suggest France should abandon these ties, or to be involved in Africa more directly?

[VomKriege]

How do different political groups (nationalists, centrists, socialists, France Insoumise) feel about this special relationship? Is it unacceptable to suggest France should abandon these ties, or to be involved in Africa more directly?

I couldn't give you much details about each party's position. I mean really, the official platforms follows the rifts you'd expect. Traditional conservatives inherited solid networks from their Gaullist forefathers. Socialists have long build the same through international fraternity. The far right I'm sure are opposed in theory because denouncing corruption is their schtick but they got their Gabenese suitcases in the past like all the others. Insoumis (and I guess Communists) are all about alternatives and strongly against exploitation but really let's be realist for a moment here international camaradery is often the same type of networks with a friendler face. The French Communists don't have the best records whith dealing with local branches promoting autonomy of their overseas location either (be it Algeria then or La Réunion today). Maybe the Insoumis would cut back on military presence though, would they ever reach power, though call me cynical but I'd wait to see it to believe it.

Are you american ? French presence in parts of Africa is not unlike US military presence around the worlds or its claim to international jurisdiction (fining foreign companies for things they do elsewhere, for instance) : it's, dare I say it, normalized and accepted as a base assumption. The debate and disputes exist in the public sphere, in the press and in the courts. The merits of the intervention of Lybia, the lack of effectiveness of the latest one in Centrafrique or the outright potential help brought to Rwandan mass muderers, to name matters of war, are all debated and covered in the press. Same for the association to unsavory autocrats, corruption or shady business deals. But the tolerance threshold, so to speak, is higher than other topics of foreign policy which itself by and large doesn't interest the masses a whole lot anyway. The Assembly will rubberstamp most expeditionary forces (which France has always been careful to frame in accordance to UN principles, operations and approval), the President get huge leeway in launching those on his own -not unlike the USA, again- and the permanent presence is not contested.

Again, without making excuses for post-colonialism, it's not like the leaders in Africa are too eager to kick us out anyway. A prime example was the crisis in Ivory Coast a few years ago. Gbagbo was spitting much fire at "foreigners" in general and French meddling but the man has been bred within the International Socialist network and still had to the very end a French ad agency as his main outside councel at PR. By all accounts he was mostly trying to prop himself up and excite crowds while he was losing internatiol favors, not really bent to changing anything too radically. I also mentioned a few months ago an interview of Jean Ping, who lost the Gabon election and has contested the result ever since, who lamented that French players (notably around the President) weren't as proactive as he'd like ! Gbagbo or Ouattara, Bongo the younger or Ping are all two sides of the same coin and none of them are really willing to rock the boat as far as this go and are more than perfectly fine with keeping France around even if they of course open to other foreign investments.

The lack of enthusiasm Ping felt really goes back to the point that while the system endures, France informal views do align at least notionally to the public statements about the death of Françafrique. In some ways, the idea that too direct an entanglement was as much as a burden than an asset has started to infuse long ago. On the military front especially, France is getting a bit blasé about intervening left and right as a band aid to obvious basket cases (Centrafrique is the current poster boy). Maybe a case of you reap what you sow and certainly hypocritical to an extent, but it is not just words in that France has actively sought up more willing European and international partners to at least foot the bill and I think there's some merit to the argument that France (and the UK) are actually defending not only their interests but those of the EU at large and are the only one willing to pay some amount of blood to it. As far as I can tell, the only major reliable partner who can be depended upon as far as military goes is the USA.

France doesn't mind the diplomatic influence or business avenues but is getting weary of having to babysit African potentates and it's fully understood that the old ways of post-decolonization are dead and outdated. Nevertheless I think French presence will continue for many decades and at up to the time I'll return to ashes. It is what it is. It's fucked up but if you claim it, you have to continue owning it.

[Sman]

Assuming you're not like Sarah Palin (and I am certainly not Katie Couric), may I ask what do you read, Vomkriege?

[VomKriege]

In general or related to the topic at hand ? Shamefully and sadly not been able to read a lot lately. My non fiction preferences goes towards history, geopolitics and war theory (which I feel lean conservative and deterministic). Podcasts act as an ersatz on my commute lately.

Please note that while I may be wordy my opinions are only worth the bytes they're printed on. I am also not a political activist by any mean.

[Sman]

General mostly. You keep bringing updates on French politics so obviously there must be something specific there. Monde diplomatique? Canard enchainé? That sort of thing.

[VomKriege]

Oh then I'll probably disappoint. As we say here, culture is like marmelade, the less you have, the more you spread. I think my messages here are mostly insightful insofar I offer first hand details on local politics that will be foreign to most of the board. A lot of the stuff is really only surface level with a few "hot takes" or opinions in the mix.

I used to read more newspapers back in the day, notably Charlie Hebdo, the Canard Enchainé and Libération (family choice). Today I'm mostly staying aware through radio and podcasts, which I have the leisure to listen while at work.

- France Info is a decent radio to keep in touch with current events and they're good with injecting longer interviews and debates within the news recap.
- Le Nouvel Esprit Public (link) is a good weekly podcast for getting a liberal & centrist perspective. It's an hour long, generally has two topics, one on domestic politics, the other on international affairs. Debate is respectful and insightful and mostly elevated by the quality of guests (including editors from Le Monde, the Paris correspondant of the FAZ, one Ambassadeur de France, the former Prime Minister of Bénin etc...). It used to be a radio show on France Culture until this year, but the founder and host was fired and decided to create a splinter indie podcast. The original radio show L'esprit Public still exists on France Culture radio and so far it's decent (though a notch of quality below), you can listen to all past shows in podcast form.
- Radio France International has a good podcast on geopolitics called Géopolitique (duh). Same deal than above, available in podcast form. Two shows a week, slighty below an hour. Mostly academics and experts on a given subject.
- I like to check the live feed of Libération for domestic and the wire from Reuters for everything else. Reuters is slanted to the UK or the US (depending on the feed you choose) and towards business but their wire is fully accessible for free and they have a phone app, otherwise I'd have AFP in the rotation if it was possible. As was mentioned by Samson Manhug, Reuters / AFP / AP wire services are good because they're short, to the point and try to be mostly factual.
- Reuters also have podcasts : War College is a good one for international affairs through the military lens. Weekly and an hour long. One guest interview. It had a lot of good stuff recently on Russia and North Korea.

Otherwise with the Internet, it's more of a matter of knowing where to look when needed IMO than to read a paper back to back. I'm not reading the following on the regular but I can vouch for those :
- Jean-Dominique Merchet for French defense affairs. He's currently at l'Opinion (he changed employers quite a few times over the years) and he has a blog online. Le Canard Enchainé always had good source on military and intelligence affairs (page 3, half a page every week).
- Ultima Ratio is a decent blog for military strategy. They have several papers in English too.
- Out of the big French daily newspapers, Le Monde is probably the better one. I'll go check their site if I'm looking for a slighty more in depth article about some political topic of the day. Had my period of checking Le Figaro too but apart from the better gossip on conservative infighting it didn't bring much to the table.
- RFI always had good networks in Africa, worth checking when needed.
- I barely watch TV now but when I do and as far as news are concerned it's either France 24 (international focus and some good medium form reporting) or Euronews (cheap but with a real European wide focus free of the hysterics of political theater). La Chaine Parlementaire / Public Sénat (French C-Span, for anyone wondering), on top of broadcasting real parliamentary work, also have decent in depth reports on public matters. Haven't watched Arte in years but the news bulletin is way above average, from the echos I get. Everything else on TV is distilled madness and noise.

Having a peek at local newspapers online for a particular country -if language permits- when it's in the news, even just for a couple of editorials, is always good too. Generally more granular with the reporting and helps get a feel for the local perspective (or the approved line).

And for the rest, I'm just coasting by on the little knowledge I can thank my parents and my education for.

Let me know if it was what you were looking for.

EDIT : Le Monde Diplomatique Joking aside, it always was too rich for my taste and the thing would always end up falling out of my hands in boredom. I guess it's good that it exists.

[curly]

So Saad Hariri, the Lebanese PM who resigned, still hasn't returned to Lebanon. His party demanded his return from Saudi Arabia immediately, which seems to imply he's being held there against his will. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia has told its citizens to leave Lebanon.

[VomKriege]

So Saad Hariri, the Lebanese PM who resigned, still hasn't returned to Lebanon. His party demanded his return from Saudi Arabia immediately, which seems to imply he's being held there against his will. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia has told its citizens to leave Lebanon.

French Foreign Minister said the assessment was that he circulated freely, though the fact you need to "assess" that leaves in itself room for doubt. Yesterday L'Orient le Jour reported that apparently the Lebanese presidency had no open, consistent line of communication to him and that his own party is in the dark. You'd understand possibly fleeing in fear for your life but the appearances are weird and worrying.

Rumors that he contacted France informally have been denied. The Hariri family are in good standing here, like many Lebanese millionaires, the father was a familiar of former French President Chirac (IIRC they were housed in a sumptuous Paris flat owned by the Hariri after he left the Presidential office...).

Edit : oh Macron made a surprise visit in KSA on his way back from the UAE... Whatever is happening in KSA it feels like the dawn of a new reign.

[VomKriege]

In the Lebanese crisis, it should maybe be said that while the circumstances are terrible optics, most everyone (apart from Shia) will agree with the bulk of the argument that Hezbollah has grown too strong in Lebanon. If you believe what you read, Hariri was an empty figurehead that was forced to head a government he didn't control and give his blessing to the election of Aoun as president (Lebanon has gone two years without anyone in office), whom alliance with Hezbollah has teeth grinding even among his Christian clientele.

The Druze leader Walid Joumblatt basically spelled it out on his Twitter. Hariri must come home "willingly or not" because "there's no alternative (to him acting as PM) anyway".

I guess maybe a lot here are aware of it, but it cannot hurt to remind that Lebanon has a complex and rigid agreement between its multiple communities in order to keep the peace. The key political offices are divided according to it as are the seats in Parliament. The Prime Minister has to be a Sunni.

[Valhelm]

I think Hezbollah can only be considered too strong if their prominence is threatening the security and stability of Lebanese people. Given that Hezbollah took power because nobody else was able to protect their country, I don't think that's the case yet.

[benjipwns]

In the Lebanese crisis, it should maybe be said that while the circumstances are terrible optics

not like this Vom, not like this

[VomKriege]

I think Hezbollah can only be considered too strong if their prominence is threatening the security and stability of Lebanese people. Given that Hezbollah took power because nobody else was able to protect their country, I don't think that's the case yet.

Well aren't they doing just that with regards to Israël and KSA ? Now I'm not an expert and obviously Hezbollah isn't gonna go just "ok then" but as far as I can tell many in Lebanon certainly agree with the fact they're a state within the state,  that ideally they should disarm and they're doing the opposite...

[curly]

Wouldn't it depend on who you're asking in Lebanon--are they Sunni or Shiite, are they pro- or anti-Hezbollah, is it Iran or Saudi Arabia that funds them? Does a middle ground exist? I should probably do more research on Lebanon before making claims, but my impression is that the country is so split on sectarian lines that a unified state is impossible and if Hezbollah were to disarm they'd have no deterrence at all against Israel. 

[benjipwns]

40% of Lebanon is Christian too, they have positions of government that are reserved for specific religions. It used to be the strongest and oldest democracy in the region, it's the last few decades have really taken its toll on the place, especially as everyone has fucked with the place.

[VomKriege]

Wouldn't it depend on who you're asking in Lebanon--are they Sunni or Shiite, are they pro- or anti-Hezbollah, is it Iran or Saudi Arabia that funds them? Does a middle ground exist? I should probably do more research on Lebanon before making claims, but my impression is that the country is so split on sectarian lines that a unified state is impossible and if Hezbollah were to disarm they'd have no deterrence at all against Israel.

Obviously. But the UN has called for the disarmament through resolutions and keep in mind the country has been embroiled in a vicious civil war along community lines in living memory. It's hard to believe having a paramilitary outfit beholden to a specific community and unanimously considered as the hand of foreign interests is healthy. The argument, used by President Aoun, that Hezbollah cannot be disarmed as long as the official security forces are too weak, seems a bit self defeating and circular.

Edit : not that there's a magic wand solution to the whole thing.

[Valhelm]

40% of Lebanon is Christian too, they have positions of government that are reserved for specific religions. It used to be the strongest and oldest democracy in the region, it's the last few decades have really taken its toll on the place, especially as everyone has fucked with the place.

From what I understand, the most common attitude among Lebanese is that while Hezbollah is problematic, their existence defends Lebanon from imperialism and allows this democracy to persist. Similar attitudes were held about the Syrians during the 15 year occupation after the civil war. This is why Lebanon has amassed so much support among Christians and even Sunnis, and why their parliamentary March 8th Alliance is mostly non-Shia.

Hezbollah's really impressive maneuvers during the 2006 Israeli invasion have gained them enormous credibility and harmed the reputation of the Lebanese army, a generally ineffective institution that has a history of collapsing whenever shit hits the fan.

[curly]

Obviously. But the UN has called for the disarmament through resolutions and keep in mind the country has been embroiled in a vicious civil war along community lines in living memory. It's hard to believe having a paramilitary outfit beholden to a specific community and unanimously considered as the hand of foreign interests is healthy. The argument, used by President Aoun, that Hezbollah cannot be disarmed as long as the official security forces are too weak, seems a bit self defeating and circular.

Edit : not that there's a magic wand solution to the whole thing.

I agree that in a perfect world Hezbollah acting as a state within a state is probably a bad idea, but is there presence actually what's destabilizing Lebanon at the moment? The articles I've read discussing the possibility of war in Lebanon say it's unlikely in large part because Hezbollah is so entrenched and there really isn't any force within Lebanon that can possibly confront them on equal terms.

Basically, it would be good if Lebanon wasn't dominated by foreign interests using the country as a staging ground for a regional cold war, but as long as it is it's better to have one side in control militarily rather than a free-for-all.

[deepest throat]

australia voted yes for same sex marriage

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/15/australia-says-yes-to-same-sex-marriage-in-historic-postal-survey

it was non binding and the conservatives are already trying to kick the can down the road by winding back anti-discrimination laws (including giving doctors the right to deny healthcare to gay couples) but there should be more than enough support in the parliament to hopefully get things done by christmas

[Corporal]

Fuck yea, Straya! Nice one.

...

So, now that the EU has started the long and arduous task of standardising army procurement, R&D and training of specialists, it's time for a certain part of our populace to freak the flip out because it's clear that we will have an EU army under Brussels control within the next year, a major war against insurgents in Great Britain under the guise of peacekeeping, and general tyrannical rule of EU under direct control of Germany, with the aid of France.

Yikes. We Krauts better get around to cloning Hitler and giving him some body armour, otherwise allied forces won't have anything to shoot at when they come back for another world liberation tour. Seems like we've fallen behind schedule.

As much as I'm going blind from excessive eye rolling, can someone hook me up with a reasoned and plausible argument why this recent cooperation is a bad thing? I'm always up for broadening my horizons. So far I've only come across nebulous "bureaucracy" horror scenarios and such that only work because their proponent firmly believes that everything that can go wrong will go wrong as long as it is even vaguely connected to EU.

[Raist]

Fuck yea, Straya! Nice one.

...

So, now that the EU has started the long and arduous task of standardising army procurement, R&D and training of specialists, it's time for a certain part of our populace to freak the flip out because it's clear that we will have an EU army under Brussels control within the next year, a major war against insurgents in Great Britain under the guise of peacekeeping, and general tyrannical rule of EU under direct control of Germany, with the aid of France.

Yikes. We Krauts better get around to cloning Hitler and giving him some body armour, otherwise allied forces won't have anything to shoot at when they come back for another world liberation tour. Seems like we've fallen behind schedule.

As much as I'm going blind from excessive eye rolling, can someone hook me up with a reasoned and plausible argument why this recent cooperation is a bad thing? I'm always up for broadening my horizons. So far I've only come across nebulous "bureaucracy" horror scenarios and such that only work because their proponent firmly believes that everything that can go wrong will go wrong as long as it is even vaguely connected to EU.

Muh national identity.

[shosta]

MUGABE WILL STILL BE PRESIDENT AFTER ALL OF THIS. EVEN IF HE IS DEAD, HIS CORPSE WILL BE PRESIDENT. THAT IS HOW MUCH ZIMBABWE LOVES MUGABE.

[VomKriege]

I was gonna post there was a military Coup in Zimbabwe. They very ostensibly say they've gone after all of the bad ministers and that Mugabe is safe.