I don’t understand the politics of Brexit at all. It’s clearly a bad idea that seems to have gotten less popular over time, and there’s a ton of questions about the original vote and campaign becauand yet the UK government seems hellbent on going through with it for some inexplicable reason.
It basically comes down to this:
- A majority of the people voted to leave the EU
- After dragging her feet May has finally negotiated a deal that is worse than staying in the EU, this means
> Brexiteers are against (they don't want to pay the 39 billion in financial settlements for starters)
> Remainers are against (they want a new referendum)
> Labour is against (because they're not going to help her wiggle out of this one)
May does not seem to have the votes to get this deal through the House of Commons so now there's a plot set in motion to oust her as PM with a vote of no confidence which she is likely to lose.
If May's out the tories will have a new leadership challenge, which equals them selecting a new PM.
Which could be someone like David Davies (to again try to get more favorable terms from the Europeans and/or postpone or revoke Brexit), Rees Mogg himself (as he called for the vote) and/or Boris Johnson (who would crash out of the EU, give them the finger and try to deal with the US or other countries).
However, the EU on their part has already said that the UK can't revoke article 50 and thus Brexit has to go ahead no matter what.
The smart money was actually betting on May dragging her feet so a deal wouldn't happen and she and former Brexit Secretary Davies would revoke article 50.
However, the UK will have to start the entire process of becoming a new EU member all over again.
May's snap election was also designed for prevent something like this from happening. She would increase her support and vote tally so she'd be able to get 'any' deal passed through the house of commons easier.
That all backfired because she actually lost support and also relies on a coalition partner which is also against the deal.
So a new referendum wouldn't work because the EU won't take the UK back. And this Brexit deal won't work because the EU has demanded political suicide of May.
Elections you ask?
Well, no sane opposition party would call for elections without assurances from Brussels. So this hot potato remains in Tory hands unless their new leader calls for elections to shore up support but that is unlikely given how that backfired on May.
However, the UK will leave the EU by the end of March. And as it stands now, likely without any sort of deal or transition.