International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48912063

[hungrynoob]

There will be no bombing war w/Iran.
Same people who are fucking with NK are doing the same to Iran. Trump made history without war with NK it will be the same for Iran.

[Great Rumbler]

Oh, is NK giving up their nukes now? I hadn't heard that yet.

[shosta]

I realized last night a little too late that Iran's best strategy right now is to provoke and march to war. If they continue to limp under the crippling sanctions regime, they'd be critically vulnerable, they risk social unrest, and they wouldn't be able to defend themselves or their interests in the region. They have to play hardball now and either make Trump or Europe blink in the face of the unacceptable costs of a major war in the middle east or do serious harm against their enemies in a bid to survive.

If they do nothing at all, that's a 100% chance of getting fucked into oblivion. If they escalate, there's a small (20%? 33%?) chance they can get some kind of deal back. Something that also contributes to this calculus is Trump revealing in Venezuela that he has no stomach for enforcing a red line or a concrete goal if it means real conflict. That weakens his hand significantly - maybe the Iranians wouldn't have been so emboldened otherwise.

Anyway, if those are your options, you might as well YOLO it. This is what happens when your leadership doesn't understand the incentives they're setting up. Then again, I also read some analysis that Pompeo and Bolton do expect a war to happen and are misleading Trump into thinking his brinkmanship will work. It's just fucked all around.

[shosta]

I realized last night a little too late that Iran's best strategy right now is to provoke and march to war. If they continue to limp under the crippling sanctions regime, they'd be critically vulnerable, they risk social unrest, and they wouldn't be able to defend themselves or their interests in the region. They have to play hardball now and either make Trump or Europe blink in the face of the unacceptable costs of a major war in the middle east or do serious harm against their enemies in a bid to survive.

If they do nothing at all, that's a 100% chance of getting fucked into oblivion. If they escalate, there's a small (20%? 33%?) chance they can get some kind of deal back. Something that also contributes to this calculus is Trump revealing in Venezuela that he has no stomach for enforcing a red line or a concrete goal if it means real conflict. That weakens his hand significantly - maybe the Iranians wouldn't have been so emboldened otherwise.

Anyway, if those are your options, you might as well YOLO it. This is what happens when your leadership doesn't understand the incentives they're setting up. Then again, I also read some analysis that Pompeo and Bolton do expect a war to happen and are misleading Trump into thinking his brinkmanship will work. It's just fucked all around.

[hungrynoob]

Oh, is NK giving up their nukes now? I hadn't heard that yet.

KJU is at odds with bad actors in state. The purpose of the USA NK interaction is to flush them out, it is not an overnight operation.

[Great Rumbler]

lmao okay

[Madrun Badrun]

https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1148536683035602945

[BisMarckie]

Don't 👏 try 👏 to 👏 solve 👏 a 👏 complex 👏 issue 👏 with 👏 a 👏 yes/no 👏 referendum 👏 again.

Corbyn suddenly being a staunch defender of the European Union is pretty funny though. 

[Kara]

Sounds like he's listening to the mass line.

[Nintex]

I realized last night a little too late that Iran's best strategy right now is to provoke and march to war. If they continue to limp under the crippling sanctions regime, they'd be critically vulnerable, they risk social unrest, and they wouldn't be able to defend themselves or their interests in the region. They have to play hardball now and either make Trump or Europe blink in the face of the unacceptable costs of a major war in the middle east or do serious harm against their enemies in a bid to survive.

If they do nothing at all, that's a 100% chance of getting fucked into oblivion. If they escalate, there's a small (20%? 33%?) chance they can get some kind of deal back. Something that also contributes to this calculus is Trump revealing in Venezuela that he has no stomach for enforcing a red line or a concrete goal if it means real conflict. That weakens his hand significantly - maybe the Iranians wouldn't have been so emboldened otherwise.

Anyway, if those are your options, you might as well YOLO it. This is what happens when your leadership doesn't understand the incentives they're setting up. Then again, I also read some analysis that Pompeo and Bolton do expect a war to happen and are misleading Trump into thinking his brinkmanship will work. It's just fucked all around.

Iran is on its last legs anyway. The youngsters want Iran to join in with the rest of the world. Won't be long before student protests etc. break out again.
The regime isn't very popular anymore. The best bet for Iran is to meet up with Trump and give him his TV ad for the 2020 election.

Kim Jun Un is playing along with the show. The mullah's should as well. They just don't get it. All Trump wanted to do was make a new deal.

[Nintex]

Anyone watching the Boris / Hunt debate?

Q "On the backstop (can you be specific?)":
- Hunt: "We will use 'technology' "
- Boris: "Everyone knows you can solve this away from the border [inaudible]"

Q: "Help my business is in danger":
- Hunt: "Here I have a 10 point printed plan"
- Boris: "I think that in public discourse the consequences of a no deal are exaggerated"



"Before we go to the break, please raise your hand if you're willing to tell the people we will leave the EU by October 31st"
*both raise hands*'

BORIS: "That's the SPIRIT JEREMY!! Could've fooled me!!!"

 

[Mandark]

Iran is on its last legs anyway.

care to put a date on that?

[Cerveza mas fina]

Would you ask your 5 year old if you should quit your job?

Thats what Brexit feels like.

[shosta]

Duterte Harry

"I have a proposal," Duterte said, according to Business Insider. "If America wants China to leave, and I can't make them...I want the whole 7th Fleet of the armed forces of the United States of America there."

"When they enter the South China Sea, I will enter," he said. "I will ride with the American who goes there first. Then I will tell the Americans, 'Okay, let's bomb everything.'"

Duterte's inflammatory speech was his second in three days, having also been beating the drum for war on Friday. During a speech marking the opening of a rice processing plant in Alangalang on the central island of Leyte, the president said the U.S. is always "pushing us, egging us" towards war with Beijing, "making me the bait," according to the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

"What do you think Filipinos are, earthworms?" he asked. "Now, I say, you bring your planes, your boats to South China Sea. Fire the first shot, and we are just here behind you. Go ahead, let's fight."

[Raist]

Aaaand again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48938691

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been seen shaking for a third time in a month.

Video footage shows Mrs Merkel trembling, shaking back and forth alongside Finland's prime minister during a ceremony in Berlin. The trembling lasted over a minute.

After the incident, Mrs Merkel said she was "very well" and there was "no need to worry".

[Nintex]

"We're going to negotiate a new Brexit deal!"

Deutsche Bank:

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

Merkel: 

[BisMarckie]

You do know that there is a difference between Deutsche Bank and Deutsche Bundesbank, right?

If there was a party running on a platform of invading the Netherlands to cut their internet access, I would vote vor them.

[Rufus]

FUDtex hears ya, but FUDtex don't care.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48934781

Major: I will seek a judicial review to stop Parliament shutdown

[Nintex]

You do know that there is a difference between Deutsche Bank and Deutsche Bundesbank, right?

If there was a party running on a platform of invading the Netherlands to cut their internet access, I would vote vor them.

Yes, I'm just summing up the international politics of the day.

Deutsche Bank is the polar opposite of the Bundesbank Sparpolitik.

[VomKriege]

Aaaand again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48938691

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been seen shaking for a third time in a month.

Video footage shows Mrs Merkel trembling, shaking back and forth alongside Finland's prime minister during a ceremony in Berlin. The trembling lasted over a minute.

After the incident, Mrs Merkel said she was "very well" and there was "no need to worry".

If it turns out to be something like an illness, can't wait for the conga line of journalists telling us they all knew for years but couldn't say because of raison d'État.

[Kara]

Iran is on its last legs anyway.

care to put a date on that?

He predicted the world economy would plunge on Monday. Excited for how he answers this one!

[Nintex]

I would say a significant political upheaval will materialize around 2024 or so if no outside actors take action.

[Raist]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48935351


I think we should follow this example 

[Nintex]

Dutch children consistently rank among the happiest in the world, according to surveys by the UN children's fund Unicef.

Reasons behind this include less academic pressure in tests at an early age and an emphasis on play-based learning.

But of course the Green Marxists want Children BANNED from the streets and unhappy

However, Noël Vergunst, a local Green councillor, has defended the decision.

"It's a difficult issue," he told councillors last week. "The noise standard was considerably exceeded, so we had to do something," he added.

Green communist marxism, not even once. 

[VomKriege]

[VomKriege]

Four Javelin anti-tank missiles from the French inventory have been seized in one base of Marshall Haftar forces. French Ministry of Defense confirms they are genuine but claims they're non functional and were stocked pending destruction after being issued to a detachment of French soldiers doing intelligence. It is denied they were ever transferred to local forces.

It's not a secret that Haftar had a lot of contacts in France back before being in open defiance of his rivals.

[Kara]

I would say a significant political upheaval will materialize around 2024 or so if no outside actors take action.

Sometime in 5 years unless something dramatic happens.

[curly]

Dutch cowards 

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1149060726083866624

oops 

[Kara]

Green communist marxism, not even once. 

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/02/23/de-ongemakkelijke-feitentwist-van-thierry-baudet-a3655130

 

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/OLayzell/status/1146382379378008065

[Tripon]

When Andrés Manuel López Obrador triumphed one year ago, it was unclear whether Mexico had elected the revolutionary populist from the campaign trail, or the more pragmatic figure from his tenure as mayor of Mexico City. We may now have the answer.

The latest: Finance Minister Carlos Urzúa excoriated the leftist president on Tuesday, penning a resignation letter that accused him of failing to base policy on evidence and empowering ideologues over experts.

Between the lines: “Hope for pragmatism is fading,” says Shannon O’Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations. “These resignations show there's little hope for those who want change within the boundaries of checks and balances and democratic institutions.”

“After he lost two elections [in 2006 and 2012] he thought were stolen, I think that pragmatism went away,” she says.
"He did advertise this,” says Roberta Jacobson, who served as U.S. ambassador to Mexico from 2016-2018. “He's doing what he said he was going to do. He is the decider, he's not an institutionalist."

“Everything that blocks his decision-making has to be chucked over the side,” she adds, contending that the president’s efforts to undermine regulators and the civil service are leading to a "death of expertise."
“The tragic thing about López Obrador — and I’m still hoping he’ll succeed — is his diagnosis of the problems in Mexico was absolutely accurate. But his programs for fixing the problems are absolutely wrong."
Yes, but: While investors and experts are increasingly wary, López Obrador boasts approval ratings above 60% nationwide.

Everything is driven by the force of his personality, which is on display daily in early morning press conferences. Aides rarely speak, and he often contradicts them when they do.

But there’s one person López Obrador has scrupulously avoided confrontation with. On May 30, President Trump said he’d hit Mexico with tariffs that would escalate “until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied.”
López Obrador immediately sought to defuse tensions, and eventually agreed to send 6,000 national guard members to the border with Guatemala, among other steps, to gain a reprieve.
The big picture: Jacobson says López Obrador told her he’d do everything possible to maintain a positive relationship with the U.S., “and he has continued to abide by that, almost beyond reason.”

Where things stand: Trump tweeted today that Mexico “is doing great at the Border.” But appeasing a president who regularly attacks your country, and could still reverse course with an election looming, is politically risky.

It’s also expensive. López Obrador didn’t get any financial assistance from the U.S. for the immigration offensive, O’Neil notes.
It’s just one case of his ambitious and costly plans running up against fiscal reality. And while his base of 25-30% will stand by him indefinitely, the rest of the country won’t be so patient, O’Neil says.
"He's going to face an economic and fiscal crisis and that's when I think that other 25-30% might go away."
What to watch: Jacobson agrees that “a train-wreck may be coming." She says we might find out then whether López Obrador has retained his pragmatic streak.

“He’s a very good politician. If he has to become more flexible, he’ll probably be able to convince people, ‘this is what I wanted all along.’”

https://www.axios.com/andres-maneuel-lopez-obrador-populist-mexico-a95a7336-655b-4adf-af3b-b6be6a5d3c1f.html

Neo Liberals are so mad that their shit isn't working anymore. 

[benjipwns]

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Several weeks after publishing explosive reports about a key member of Brazil’s far-right government, U.S. journalist Glenn Greenwald was called before a congressional committee to face hostile questions.

“Who should be judged, convicted and in prison is the journalist!” shouted congresswoman Katia Sastre, an ally of President Jair Bolsonaro.

And by some accounts that wasn’t an empty threat: A conservative website reported that federal police had requested that financial regulators investigate Greenwald’s finances. The Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and his Brazilian husband also say they have been receiving detailed death threats, calls for his deportation and homophobic comments in an increasingly hostile political environment.

...

During the June 25 hearing at the chamber’s Human Rights and Minorities Commission, lawmaker Carla Zambelli told Greenwald: “If you don’t prove this information, it is fake and you’re a liar. If it’s true, then you’re a criminal because you hacked someone’s phone.”

Greenwald responded: “The government’s party evidently has a lot of confusion about the journalism we did.”

...

Greenwald, who lives in Rio de Janeiro, is now accompanied by private security guards and says he and other staff at The Intercept have received sophisticated, detailed death threats that sometimes include private personal information.

..

At recent nationwide demonstrations, backers of Bolsonaro and Moro repeatedly denounced Greenwald — often by focusing on his sexuality and his husband, leftist Brazilian congressman David Miranda. Bolsonaro himself has famously said that he would rather have a dead son than a gay son.

“GlennGreenwald, get out of Brazil! You are disgusting,” read one sign. An online campaign with the hashtag #DeportGlennGreenwald was popular on Brazilian Twitter.

Pro-Bolsonaro members of Brazil’s congress have called for Greenwald’s imprisonment and deportation.

THANKS LIBERAL TRUCKERS

[jorma]

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Several weeks after publishing explosive reports about a key member of Brazil’s far-right government, U.S. journalist Glenn Greenwald was called before a congressional committee to face hostile questions.

“Who should be judged, convicted and in prison is the journalist!” shouted congresswoman Katia Sastre, an ally of President Jair Bolsonaro.

And by some accounts that wasn’t an empty threat: A conservative website reported that federal police had requested that financial regulators investigate Greenwald’s finances. The Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and his Brazilian husband also say they have been receiving detailed death threats, calls for his deportation and homophobic comments in an increasingly hostile political environment.

...

During the June 25 hearing at the chamber’s Human Rights and Minorities Commission, lawmaker Carla Zambelli told Greenwald: “If you don’t prove this information, it is fake and you’re a liar. If it’s true, then you’re a criminal because you hacked someone’s phone.”

Greenwald responded: “The government’s party evidently has a lot of confusion about the journalism we did.”

...

Greenwald, who lives in Rio de Janeiro, is now accompanied by private security guards and says he and other staff at The Intercept have received sophisticated, detailed death threats that sometimes include private personal information.

..

At recent nationwide demonstrations, backers of Bolsonaro and Moro repeatedly denounced Greenwald — often by focusing on his sexuality and his husband, leftist Brazilian congressman David Miranda. Bolsonaro himself has famously said that he would rather have a dead son than a gay son.

“GlennGreenwald, get out of Brazil! You are disgusting,” read one sign. An online campaign with the hashtag #DeportGlennGreenwald was popular on Brazilian Twitter.

Pro-Bolsonaro members of Brazil’s congress have called for Greenwald’s imprisonment and deportation.

THANKS LIBERAL TRUCKERS

meanwhile on resetera: Wow, i guess we were wrong about him all this time! Bolsonaro redeemed!

[Nintex]

Nobody:

Macron:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1150093166617473024

 


LMAO pretending this is democratic in any way

https://twitter.com/Europarl_EN/status/1149645766266241026

The process to vote for the single candidate that wasn't even in the running is very transparent. 

[Madrun Badrun]

Wonder who they will surrender the moon too?  Also, I now want an alt-history book with Vichy Moon France.

[Raist]

Nobody:

Macron:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1150093166617473024

 


LMAO pretending this is democratic in any way

https://twitter.com/Europarl_EN/status/1149645766266241026

The process to vote for the single candidate that wasn't even in the running is very transparent. 

Look at those democratically elected (dick)heads of states present a candidate to the democratically elected parliament, for her to be scrutinized on her program, which may or may not get her to be elected, in which case those democratically elected heads of state motherfuckers have to go back to the drawing board.

It's so undemocratic, it makes me fucking sick.


Meanwhile, in the land of true democracy and taking back control, two clowns are running for the highest office, which will be decided by party members only.

[Tripon]

Nobody:

Macron:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1150093166617473024

 


LMAO pretending this is democratic in any way

https://twitter.com/Europarl_EN/status/1149645766266241026

The process to vote for the single candidate that wasn't even in the running is very transparent. 

Look at those democratically elected (dick)heads of states present a candidate to the democratically elected parliament, for her to be scrutinized on her program, which may or may not get her to be elected, in which case those democratically elected heads of state motherfuckers have to go back to the drawing board.

It's so undemocratic, it makes me fucking sick.


Meanwhile, in the land of true democracy and taking back control, two clowns are running for the highest office, which will be decided by party members only.

What's the plan if and when the UK has to negotiate all the trade deals that were under the EU's control? Just the U.S. and UK alone is going to take years, and the UK is supposed to do that with every individual country?

[Raist]

What's the plan if and when the UK has to negotiate all the trade deals that were under the EU's control? Just the U.S. and UK alone is going to take years, and the UK is supposed to do that with every individual country?

I'm sure Boris will sort something out.

[Nintex]

What's the plan if and when the UK has to negotiate all the trade deals that were under the EU's control? Just the U.S. and UK alone is going to take years, and the UK is supposed to do that with every individual country?

I'm sure Boris will sort something out.

Why the defeatism? Why the negativity?

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1149748802196320258

[Raist]

A new challenger for the title of "Most distinguished mentally-challenged statement made on TV about Brexit" appears.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1149671033646927872

[VomKriege]

I guess that "let's fuck the Irish over" habit dies hard.

[Nintex]

Yasssss send Boris Johnson to Dublin to make a deal. 

Remember when the EU said to the UK not to dick around with the delay.
Guess what, since March the two major parties have been busy with:
- Coming up with reasons to make Boris Johnson PM (Tories)
- Deciding their position on Brexit (Labour)

 

[Tripon]

Yasssss send Boris Johnson to Dublin to make a deal. 

Remember when the EU said to the UK not to dick around with the delay.
Guess what, since March the two major parties have been busy with:
- Coming up with reasons to make Boris Johnson PM (Tories)
- Deciding their position on Brexit (Labour)

 

Also, working hard to portray Corbyn and Labour as anti-semitic.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1150132173166534656

Bonus points with Jake Tapper retweeting this without any context of internal British politics. The Brits must love Americans carrying their water unironically.

[Nintex]

Someone printed 4chan, wrote: "JEREMY CORBYN" on it and send it to Timothy. 

[Kara]

Look at those democratically elected (dick)heads of states present a candidate to the democratically elected parliament, for her to be scrutinized on her program, which may or may not get her to be elected, in which case those democratically elected heads of state motherfuckers have to go back to the drawing board.

It's so undemocratic, it makes me fucking sick.


Meanwhile, in the land of true democracy and taking back control, two clowns are running for the highest office, which will be decided by party members only.

All good points, but it's also worth mentioning that the members of the Dutch Senate aren't directly elected.

And unlike other countries with a similarly undemocratic system, the Dutch Senate can actually reject legislation.

Nintex going to Nintex.

[VomKriege]

French government is making noise they might make age verification more stringent for porn websites though it's pretty vague how they'll do that. In recent years having something similar to the recently established UK system or somehow requesting people to enter a credit card number was mentioned but it never went anywhere.

[BisMarckie]

Sure, let's have a huge database with credit card numbers and other sensitive information.
What could go wrong?

[Raist]

A new challenger for the title of "Most distinguished mentally-challenged fellowed statement made on TV about Brexit" appears.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1149671033646927872

Shit, competition getting fierce.


https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1150475669677268992


https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1150735501625876480

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1150835579925540864

What's the percentage of the IRA coming back if the backstop goes away?

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/TheProgressives/status/1151157564584923137

I don't know why Democratic Socialists and Labour parties keep losing elections?

It boggles the mind 

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1151070180405063680
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1151057364826624000

I know Trump spooked them but could the reptilian shape shifters at least have put some effort in?

[Rufus]

Swedish Antifa are more hands-on, so to speak.

No assassinations though, as far as I know, so that's nice.

[Kara]

I critically support the Antifa Bavarian police officers. ACAB means All Cops Are Bayerische. ✊

[Rufus]

I critically support the Antifa Bavarian police officers. ACAB means All Cops Are Bayerische. ✊

[shosta]

[jorma]

I remember forums poster jorma informing me that European antifa was indistinguishable from their fascist counterparts. I wonder if they have a giant missile

nothing i've i said about them is wrong, although i admit my personal experiences might be outdated now since i don't move about in those circles these days
i doubt they've mellowed out since then though

and i'm pretty sure you'd agree with me if you were a leftie trying to exclude them from your rallies because you don't want the violence they crave. you might even be able to see just how "antifascist" their intimidation tactics are when deployed towards their own side.

[BisMarckie]

We got rid of Von der Leyen
AKK now minister of defence which is a good job to end her career.


Next candidate of the CDU Friedrich Merz.

[Raist]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49015116

Tourists could face a "shock" this summer when they travel abroad according to foreign currency experts.

Those that buy euros at the airport can expect to receive around 98 euro cents for their pound. Better rates can be found by buying in advance, with the Post Office offering €1.0819.

The comments section is a goldmine

A weaker pound means cheaper exports, which boosts the economy. So what if a drink costs €0.06 extra at the bar on your 2 week holiday. It’s good for jobs in manufacturing, encourages more tourists to visit and increases GDP.

If the remainers hadn’t talked the UK down so much, the markets would have more confidence in the country. They disrespect democracy and their country.

If you look at the euro~pound you will see it was the same in 2011 and many other years before and after.
Load of drama over nothing as per usual !!

If you have enough money to go on holiday then you have enough money period. Stop being so tight and complaining about an extra .50p for a beer.

Great for tourist to Britain who then spend money in UK which is good for job creation and the wider economy