Since nothing in the new CBA really changes anything I was interested in, I'm most excited to see Durant keep developing as a player. He has the potential to end up being really, really special/good imo.
Yeah, I'm really interested to see what Durant's year is like. The two big subplots are whether he and Russell Westbrook can coexist productively and how he adjusts to being played more physically, like in the Grizzlies series where they seemed to figure him out. He needs to either bulk up a bit, or if he feels that would hurt the rest of his game, hire Reggie Miller to teach him the art of off-the-ball movement. Perkins could definitely be setting some nice screens for him.
Speaking of the Grizzlies and Thunder...
Chicago Bulls:
spoiler (click to show/hide)
DERRICK ROSE, PG
Projection: 27.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 7.8 ast per 40 min; 23.4 PER | Player card
• Dynamic scoring point guard with good size and superb athleticism.
• Outstanding finisher, especially in transition. Average shooter. Excels at runners.
• Rebounds well for size. Improved defender. Killer left-to-right crossover.
The league's reigning MVP -- let's not go there again -- enjoyed a breakout campaign that showcased his shot-creating abilities and several subtle efficiency improvements. The one that drew all the attention was Rose's becoming a somewhat viable 3-point shooter, as he made 33.8 percent of his triples. That's not exactly fearsome, but it's an upgrade. He shot in the 20s his first two seasons. However, he gave that gain back on his long 2s. Rose had made 44.5 percent the previous season; last season he slumped to 39.8 percent. The biggest difference for him, efficiency-wise, was that more of his shots were 3s and fewer were long 2s, which helped due to the extra point.
Of more lasting value, perhaps, was that Rose began drawing a lot more fouls as the season went on. Despite his penetration skills he was a fairly low free throw player his first two seasons, and in the first two months of 2010-11 he showed a similar pattern with just five free throw attempts a game. Over the rest of the season he upped that average to eight, and for the season he was 12th among point guards in free throw rate.
All this was more impressive because of the sheer volume of shots Rose created. He took the highest percentage of his team's shots of anyone in the league and was second in the NBA in usage rate behind Kobe Bryant. He also helped on the boards (18th among point guards) and, while he'll never be mistaken for John Stockton, he had a decent pure point rating even with all the shots he took (28th).
Defensively, Rose showed considerable improvement in his effort level, although he still gets hung up on ball screens way too easily and doesn't get his hands on many balls (56th out of 68 point guards in steals per minute). His recovery ability helps, as he finished fifth among point guards in blocks per minute -- several of them coming after he was beat on an initial drive and then stormed back to deny the shot at the rim.
For the season Rose had the worst defensive plus-minus of any Chicago regular, but partly that's because the Bulls' subs were better defenders than the starters. His opponent PER and Synergy numbers were better; on balance, he was a middling defender last season, which is a huge improvement over where he was before.
KEITH BOGANS, SG
Projection: 8.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 7.91 PER | Player card
• Role-playing wing who defends, shoots open 3s, and does little else.
• Tough, focused defender. Short arms but strong and competes. Bad rebounder.
• Very limited offensively. Good handle for size but no burst. Poor finisher.
Despite his modest individual stats, Bogans rather surprisingly ended up as a full-time starter on a 62-win team, not to mention the go-to closing line for Derrick Rose's MVP supporters ("They start Keith Bogans!"). He was 63rd among shooting guards in PER and averaged just 9.8 points per 40 minutes, but he did the two things Chicago needed: He was fairly efficient and played good defense.
Bogans shot 3s almost exclusively -- 77 percent of his shots were triples, the most among shooting guards -- and made a respectable 38 percent. Among shooting guards he was 19th in TS% and ninth in pure point rating, so at least the rare possessions he used were effective.
Still, offensively he was a burden. Bogans can't create shots at all, can't finish and doesn't rebound, and that's why he was never on the floor at the end of games. Defensively, he was solid but hardly spectacular. The Bulls played better when he was off the court, although in general Chicago's subs at the other four spots were better defenders than the starters. But also, his Synergy and opponent PER numbers were ordinary. Subjectively he was better than those numbers, but his biggest asset as a player was that he knew exactly what his strengths and limitations were and never, ever, EVER went beyond those boundaries.
LUOL DENG, SF
Projection: 17.8 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.8 ast per 40 min; 15.70 PER | Player card
• Big, long wing who can shoot over the top of defenders. Good athlete.
• Likes to go right off one dribble for jumper. Not a creative offensive player.
• Excellent defender due to size, mobility and effort. Average shooter.
A not-quite-All-Star who has quietly become one of the game's best two-way wings, Deng earned new appreciation during the Bulls' renaissance last season. While his basic stock in trade offensively is providing a lot of middling efficiency shot attempts, he's above average in a few subtle areas. First, he draws a lot of fouls for a jump shooter; second, he cut his turnovers last season and took more 3s. The 3-pointer didn't offer dramatic help -- he made only 34.5 percent -- but with the extra point that's still better than the 40.4 percent he shot on 2s beyond 16 feet. Finally, Deng is a good short-range shooter on runners and pull-ups; he made 44.4 percent between 3 and 15 feet.
His limitation is a lack of offensive creativity. Deng doesn't offer a lot of deception or variety; most of the time, he's taking a hard dribble right and shooting over the top of his defender. It's an effective way to create shots, but those shots aren't of the highest quality.
Deng's rebound rate dropped dramatically last season for reasons that aren't entirely clear, but defensively he may have had his best season as a pro. His on-court versus off-court and Synergy ratings were some of the best in the league, while opposing small forwards mustered just an 11.3 PER against him according to 82games.com. The Bulls' team concept and quality bigs helped, but Deng's size, mobility and effort all were major advantages.
CARLOS BOOZER, PF
Projection: 20.3 pts, 11.9 reb, 3.4 ast per 40 min; 17.15 PER | Player card
• Bruising, high-scoring forward who is best weak-hand finisher in game.
• Shoots high-arcing midrange jumper to 18 feet. Can score in post. Injury-prone.
• Excellent rebounder but a subpar defender. Lacks both length and intensity.
The most interesting statistical morsel from Boozer's season is that defensively, he had much better results as a center than a power forward. Boozer played a lot of minutes alongside Taj Gibson in the frontcourt, especially when Joakim Noah was out, and surrendered a 14.2 opponent PER, according to 82games.com; as a power forward, that figure was a more problematic 17.6.
In fact, the defensive dominance of Chicago's other big men served to underscore all of Boozer's deficiencies at that end. He was 64th out of 70 power forwards in blocks per minute, had by far the worst Synergy stats of any Chicago frontcourt player, and according to basketballvalue.com the team gave up 6.36 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. Subjectively, it was just as bad -- Boozer doesn't rotate well, doesn't bring a lot of energy, and is fairly short-armed. The one thing he does extremely well is rebound, where he was fifth among power forwards in defensive rebound rate.
Offensively, however, he more than offsets the defensive shortcomings -- even during a down season in 2010-11. Boozer's midrange J didn't find the net as often as in previous seasons (39.4 percent from beyond 10 feet) -- he'd made 45.5 percent of his long 2s over the previous two seasons -- but he was eighth among power forwards in points per minute with a solid TS%. He took more shots for the offense-deprived Bulls than he had in Utah and made fewer, but his percentages should bounce back next season on the jumpers. And at the rim he's still very solid, with an amazing left hand for a right-handed player.
Boozer's other issue is all the injuries. Last season he missed 23 games due to a broken hand, the fourth time in seven seasons he's played fewer than 60 games. His lack of durability and toothless defense have made him a scapegoat in both Utah and Chicago, but even with those shortcomings he's one of the most productive 4s in basketball.
JOAKIM NOAH, C
Projection: 13.5 pts, 12.8 reb, 2.9 ast per 40 min; 17.87 PER | Player card
• Energetic, hustling center who crashes boards, runs floor and defends.
• Strong help defender and great teammate. Emphatic finisher around basket.
• Poor shooter with side-spinning delivery. Good passer and ball handler.
Although Noah missed 34 games due to injury, he continued his steady development into one of the game's best centers. Noah couldn't maintain the prodigious rebound rate of a season earlier, but still ranked 10th among centers in that category. Meanwhile, he doubled his rate of steals and improved his shooting percentage; moreover, despite his awkward shooting stroke he's a solid free throw shooter and gets to the line regularly.
Defensively, Noah strives so much to help teammates that it sometimes leaves his own man free. He had the second-best Synergy rating of any center -- only Dwight Howard outrated him -- which is indicative of how active he was in pick-and-roll defense and switches. However, 82games.com tells us opposing centers posted an 18.2 PER against him.
The most underrated part of Noah's game, however, is his lack of weaknesses -- he ranked in the top 36 centers in every statistical category. While he's not much of a shooter, few centers are, and as I mentioned he makes his freebies. In terms of intangibles he's strong as well -- a hustling, high-energy player who is well-regarded in the locker room.
RESERVES
TAJ GIBSON, F
Projection: 12.9 pts, 10.4 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 14.13 PER | Player card
• Athletic, lean forward who can finish around basket and run floor.
• Excellent defensive player who can block shots, help guards and rebound.
• Limited offensive player. Lacks great feel and a mediocre shooter.
One of the most underrated factors in Chicago's renaissance last season was the monstrous combination of Gibson and Omer Asik off the Chicago bench. When those two played, the opposing team didn't score; according to basketballvalue.com, the three most frequent lineup pairings with those two held opponents to a paltry 88.0 points per 100 possessions. One can easily argue Gibson was the more impressive of the two; Gibson had the best Synergy rating of any power forward and ranked third among power forwards in blocks per minute. He's also very solid on the boards, ranking 16th at his position in rebound rate.
Offensively, he remains raw. Gibson was well below par in all the main offensive metrics, with a 50.2 TS% being particularly poor. While he can finish at the rim he doesn't have great offensive instincts, and he shot only 35.2 percent from beyond 10 feet -- and he had more shots from there than at the rim. Gibson's poor free throw shooting is another vexing factor; he's shot 67.6 percent and 64.6 percent in his two pro seasons.
Gibson is entering only his third season, but he's already 26 years old so he's not likely to progress much further from this point. Barring the periodic spectacular dunk, he'll probably be something of an offensive liability his whole career. But defensively he's way ahead of the curve, and his rare combination of shot-blocking, mobility, strength and rebounding will keep him in the league for a decade.
KYLE KORVER, SG
Projection: 15 pts, 4 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 12.00 PER | Player card
• Long-range shooting wing with good size. Good shooter off curls.
• Struggles in one-on-one defense but solid overall. Strong and has fast hands.
• Won't create own shot but can post up small wings. Good court vision.
Korver got a lot more scoring opportunities in Chicago than in Utah, as the Bulls were so desperate for offense from their second unit that they'd often run him off multiple screens as the first option. Additionally, his spot-up shooting threat provided a floor-spacing component none of his teammates offered, which is why he usually finished games for Chicago even though he didn't start them.
That intro explains a lot about Korver's statistical changes last season -- scoring and usage up, percentages down. He's still a devastating shooter, but was "only" 14th at his position in TS% last season because so many of his shots were high-difficulty releases. Nonetheless, he shot 45.7 percent from 16 to 23 feet and 41.5 percent on 3s; what really hurt Korver was how rare his layups were. Korver had only 27 shots inside 10 feet the entire season; in a related story, he virtually never went to the line either. He had 87 free throw attempts in 82 games, and many were of the "unearned" variety on illegal defenses or technical fouls.
Korver rarely penetrates, but he's a deft passer and often came off screens firing to an open man when the defense overreacted. For the season he was sixth among small forwards in pure point rating, an impressive accomplishment for a player who rarely probed off the dribble.
Less impressive were his rebounding numbers. Korver is 6-7 and strong, so ranking second to last among small forwards in rebound rate was pretty pathetic; he shattered his career low in the category. As for his defense, Korver's stats were padded by the great defenders around him on the Bulls' second unit, but he's not bad himself. Putting him one-on-one on LeBron James isn't advisable, and his lateral movement is a weakness, but he's strong, smart and a good team defender with surprisingly fast hands.
OMER ASIK, C
Projection: 10.0 pts, 11.8 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 12 PER | Player card
• Mobile big man with great defensive awareness and shot-blocking skill.
• Mistake-prone offensive player. Brings ball down around basket. Can finish.
• Outstanding pick-and-roll defender. Limited post game and ball skills.
The Chef Linguini lookalike quickly became one of my favorite players to watch last season because of his vastly underrated defensive prowess. Asik fouled too much (once every 6.5 minutes) and seemingly committed a defensive three-second violation every game, but he blocked shots, crashed the boards (15th among centers in rebound rate) and, more than anything, stymied countless opponent forays with his length and unusually sharp defensive awareness for a rookie.
The combination of Asik and Taj Gibson, in particular, proved stifling; the Bulls gave up 9.7 fewer points per 100 possessions with Asik on the court, according to basketballvalue.com, while 82games.com tells us opposing centers had just a 12.3 PER against him.
Offensively, Asik can best be described as "mistake-prone." Only two centers had a worse turnover ratio thanks to his jittery hands and hazy understanding of what constitutes a legal screen. While he led the NBA in free throw attempts per field goal attempt at 1.03 (see Chris Andersen comment), that was mostly a conscious choice by opponents since he made only 50.4 percent from the line. Additionally, many times he was slow to gather and go up after receiving a pass at the rim, giving opponents time to hack him and prevent a dunk.
Another stat shows more clearly that he kept getting his shot blocked because he wasn't going up quickly enough. Asik is a good leaper and threw down some impressive dunks, but it took him an eternity to wind up. As a result, only Toronto's Reggie Evans had more of his shots sent back (see chart).
Highest percentage of own shots blocked, 2010-11
Player Team Pct. Blocked
Reggie Evans Tor 20.4
Omer Asik Chi 19.1
Zaza Pachulia Atl 19.0
Chuck Hayes Hou 15.6
Ryan Hollins Cle 14.2
Source: Hoopdata.com. Min. 20 shots blocked
RONNIE BREWER, SG
Projection: 15 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 11.4 PER | Player card
• Long-armed wing who gets hands on lots of balls. Disruptive defender.
• Good cutter off ball, especially along baselines. Good finisher at basket.
• Poor shooter with terrible form. Quality ball handler for size. Rebounds well.
One of the many surprises in Chicago's breakout 2010-11 season was Brewer morphing into a defensive ace after he'd struggled mightily in the same role in Utah. Coming off the Chicago bench, he didn't have to check as many A-list scorers as he'd done with the Jazz, but his impact was palpable. Quick and long-armed, Brewer was a constant pest who ranked third among shooting guards in steals per minute, and amazingly did it with the third-lowest foul rate. Synergy rated him second among 2s and opponents had a 12.7 PER against him according to 82games.com; like most of the Bulls' subs he also had an outstanding defensive plus-minus.
As a side benefit, Brewer crashed the boards. He ranked ninth among shooting guards in rebound rate, far exceeding his output in the previous four seasons. In retrospect, it's surprising he'd never rebounded well before, as he's tall for a 2 and athletic.
Offensively, Brewer's inability to shoot continues to hamper him. He made only six 3-pointers all season and shot just 36.3 percent on 2-pointers beyond 10 feet; his form makes the reason for his struggles obvious, with his elbow flying out to the side while he pushes the ball out from under his chin. Although Brewer handles the ball well for his size and ranked ninth among shooting guards in pure point rating, he averaged only 11.2 points per 40 minutes because of his anemic jumper. Brewer is an exceptionally good cutter off the ball and can finish chances around the basket, although one wishes he wouldn't shy away from contact so much. However, that was of far greater value in Utah's motion offense than in Chicago's more iso-heavy attack.
That inability to space the floor is why he usually didn't finish games, instead using his defense and energy to overwhelm opposing second units. As good as he was defensively, that's probably his upper limit unless he gets more jumpers to fall.
C.J. WATSON, PG
Projection: 14.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 6.1 ast per 40 min; 12.89 PER | Player card
• Adequate backup point guard with scorer's mindset. Can create shots.
• Can pressure ball and has fast hands, but struggles in half-court defense.
• Improving distributor but not an instinctive one. Subpar finisher.
Watson had to play a greater offensive role with Chicago's defensive-minded second unit than he'd done in Golden State, and it crushed his percentages. While his usage rate shot up, he made only 37.1 percent from the floor and had by far his worst TS%; overall the decline was so sharp that his scoring rate didn't improve at all despite the uptick in shots. Watson's main salvation was that he improved as a distributor, averaging a solid 6.8 assists per 40 minutes.
Watson was also unusually bad on short-range shots. He shot 34 percent inside 15 feet, and because he had to force the action at the end of the shot clock fairly often he shot only 33.7 percent on long 2s. He actually had a decent season with the long ball (39.3 percent on 3-pointers), but making just a third of his 2-point shots isn't acceptable.
Defensively, Watson had very strong on-court versus off-court numbers, as did the entire Bulls second unit. He wasn't the major engine behind that performance, however; he was just along for the ride. His individual defensive stats support that conclusion, with average Synergy numbers and a good but not great opponent PER according to 82games.com; again, one that came with Omer Asik and Taj Gibson having his back.
Subjective observation supports that conclusion; Watson was better than he'd been in Golden State, but mostly succeeded by trying to pressure the ball and cause havoc (he was sixth among point guards in steals per minute) and otherwise letting the Bulls' strong team concept work for him when he was beaten.
KURT THOMAS, C (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 6 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.7 ast per 40 min; 9.09 PER | Player card
• Cagey, tough veteran who competes as undersized center. Low-mistake player.
• Can make open 18-footer but has no offensive game otherwise. Slow.
• Looked heavy and not a leaper, but strong and an excellent team defender.
In a stranger-than-fiction tale, the 38-year-old Thomas started 37 games for a 62-win team. In doing so he became this season's Juwan Howard -- a faded vet whose play as an emergency starter became a big deal because the expectations were so low. Thomas finished with a single-digit PER and averaged just 7.2 points per 40 minutes, but his solid defense made him a serviceable stopgap while Joakim Noah was injured. While opposing centers posted decent numbers against him, Thomas was a very effective team defender and the Bulls defended just as well with him on the court as with their other centers -- not too shabby when the other centers are Joakim Noah and Omer Asik.
Thomas helped space the floor by shooting 46 percent on long 2s; he also rarely turned the ball over and never took bad shots. That said, offensively, he was basically a nonfactor, scoring double figures twice all season. His main function was to stay out of the paint so Derrick Rose would have driving lanes. For a center his paint points were shockingly scarce; he scored 23 times at the basket the entire season, and only two centers drew fouls less frequently.
JANNERO PARGO, PG
No projection | Player card
• Small, quick, shoot-first guard with no court vision. Can't play point.
• Has hard time matching up defensively; needs point guard to defend the 2.
• Creates shots, but shoots nearly all jumpers. Middling 3-point shooter.
Pargo missed most of last season after having knee surgery; he was on the Bulls' roster for the final three weeks of the season and the playoffs, but didn't play in any games. He can be useful if a team is desperate enough for shot creating that it doesn't really care so much about the accuracy of said shots, especially if there's a big point guard on the court with him to cover the opposing 2. In most cases, however, he's a pretty marginal player.
JIMMY BUTLER, G
No projection | Player card
• Big, overachieving wing who can play tough defense. Smart, great attitude.
• Middling outside shooter and not a great athlete. May struggle to score.
• Solid rebounder. Drew fouls in college. Amazing backstory.
Butler's life story is fascinating -- think "The Blind Side," but for basketball -- as our Chad Ford detailed this spring. His career may be less so. A good defender who will probably be confined to a spot-up shooting role as a pro, Butler shapes up as a modern-day version of his namesake Rasual Butler. He can rebound and appears to have a decent feel for scoring around the bucket, so perhaps he'll surpass that projection; either way, he may have a long career simply because coaches love having guys like this around.
RASUAL BUTLER, SG (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
No projection | Player card
• Tall spot-up shooter who does virtually nothing else offensively.
• Only average accuracy but a low-mistake player. Bad rebounder.
• Length an asset on defense, but a subpar athlete. A 12th man.
Butler suffered through a miserable half season with the Clippers before they cut him, and at 32 his career is in jeopardy. He hardly played for the Bulls after they picked him up, and finished the season with a 32.3 percent shooting mark -- one that was just as bad on 2s as 3s. It was a broad-based awfulness, too, as Butler ranked in the bottom 10 small forwards in 11 different categories -- shooting percentage, free throw percentage, points per minute, TS%, PER, assist ratio, defensive rebound rate, offensive rebound rate, total rebound rate, free throw rate, and steals.
Surprisingly for a strict catch-and-shoot player, his turnover ratio wasn't even that good. Overall, his PER was the second worst among small forwards. Defensively, Butler can still function because he's long and knows what he's doing, but between the anemic offense and the lack of rebounding it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify keeping him on a roster.
BRIAN SCALABRINE, PF (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
No projection | Player card
• Slow-footed combo forward with extremely limited offensive game.
• Can't create own shot or rebound. Average perimeter shooter at best.
• Good team defender. Has strength to defend 4s. Won't take a bad shot.
Scalabrine played only 88 minutes all season, only 11 of which came after Christmas. An end-of-the-end-of-the-bench player kept around for his character and familiarity with Tom Thibodeau's system, Scalabrine did nothing in his limited chances last season that was any different from the previous six, once again finishing with a PER below 8, a low scoring rate and an embarrassing rebound rate for a 6-9 forward.
JOHN LUCAS, PG
No projection | Player card
• Small, quick point guard with good outside shot. Lacks great court vision.
• Size a major impediment on defense. Decent athlete but not a great one.
Lucas played just 10 minutes for the Bulls after signing late in the season. He hasn't seen significant action in a North American league since the 2008-09 D-League campaign, in which he posted decent enough numbers; he's shot 43.7 percent on 3s in his D-League career.
Unfortunately he's a 5-11, 165-pound point guard, which means he has to be a ridiculous athlete to compete at the NBA level. Lucas is merely a very good one. Additionally, his assist rates throughout his career have been disappointingly low, as his instincts are more as a scorer. As a result, he's a 10-day fringe player.
NIKOLA MIROTIC, F
No projection | Player card
• Tall, highly skilled wing who can handle, shoot and pass. Good feel for game.
• B athlete who may struggle to finish and defend. Could play 4 as body fills out.
Mirotic was an excellent "stash" pick by the Bulls, as he's one of the most talented young players in Europe. He's 6-10 and he has the ball skills of a much small player. He has a good feel for the game, too. His translated European stats show he'd be a decent rotation player right now, and he's young enough to still improve significantly. However, he may not be coming over for a while. He has a long contract with a big buyout in Spain, so it could be as long as five years before he's in uniform.
Oklahoma City Thunder:
spoiler (click to show/hide)
RUSSELL WESTBROOK, PG
Projection: 26.1 pts, 5.2 reb, 9.5 ast per 40 min; 24.60 PER | Player card
• Freakishly athletic shoot-first guard with great burst to basket. Penetrates at will.
• Shaky outside shooter. Rarely goes left. Decisions, in-between game need work.
• Could be excellent defender, but effort has slackened. Great offensive rebounder.
The regular season highlighted all the progress that Westbrook has made in turning from a wild, turnover-prone rookie into an All-Star point guard at just 22. The postseason showcased all the work that remains: Westbrook shot 39.4 percent in the playoffs while taking a staggering 20.2 field goal attempts per game; in playoff usage rate he was second only to Chicago's Derrick Rose, and Rose didn't play with a two-time scoring champ.
While Westbrook is a magnet for criticism and Rose appears immune, their games are actually quite similar. Westbrook makes more turnovers but earns them back with more rebounds. In terms of shooting and passing they're extremely similar. In fact, Westbrook's PER (23.63) and Rose's (23.62) couldn't be closer.
The difference is that, aesthetically, Westbrook leaves a lot more to be desired. The end result may be the same, but Westbrook's mistakes are more visibly frustrating -- his shot selection is questionable, he has no in-between game (he was the third-worst shooter in the league from 3 to 9 feet, at just 26.6 percent), and his game comes across as more selfish. If he fixes these shortcomings he's first-team all-world, but last May was pretty rough on the eyes.
Defensively, Westbrook also needs to recommit. Based on his physical skills, he should be awesome. He's plainly not. While Westbrook won't be overpowered by anyone and ranked fourth at his position in steals per minute, his effort needs to be more consistent. Additionally, he's so focused on crashing the boards (first among point guards in offensive rebound rate, second in overall rebound rate) that at times he leaves the backcourt exposed for easy run-outs.
THABO SEFOLOSHA, SG
Projection: 8.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 10.00 PER | Player card
• Strong wing defender with good size and lateral movement. Very good rebounder.
• Handles ball well for size but has poor offensive instincts. Turnover-prone.
• Effective in open court but a mediocre outside shooter. Struggles in spot-up game.
Sefolosha's defensive chops are well-earned; he's not quite in the elite category, but he's very good. Statistically, the Thunder played better when he was on the court, and all the sources one can use -- Synergy, 82games.com, adjusted plus-minus, and good ol' subjective evaluation -- point to him as a positive force. He ranked seventh at his position in both blocks and steals per minute and had the fourth-best rebound rate among shooting guards. His lone negative was a fairly high foul rate.
The most interesting nugget lies in his 82games.com numbers, however. Sefolosha did well defending shooting guards, holding them to a 13.2 PER, but was amazing against small forwards -- just a 10.7 mark. He's had similar differentials his entire Thunder career, leading one to wonder if he'd be more effective playing small forward full-time. Obviously that won't happen in Oklahoma City, but it's food for thought if he ever changes teams.
The other reason to chew on that idea is because offensively, well, he's not good. The Thunder were a shocking 20.2 points per 100 possessions worse with Sefolosha on the floor, even though nearly all his minutes were played with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the court. The issue here is that Sefolosha magnifies weaknesses already present up and down the starting five -- he's not a good shooter, he's a sloppy ball handler and he doesn't move well without the ball.
With a different team or a different role it wouldn't be such a problem; in a backcourt with Russell Westbrook, it's fairly glaring. Sefolosha was dead last among shooting guards in both scoring (7.8 points per 40 minutes) and usage rate; he shot 27.5 percent on 3s; and he didn't make up for lack of quantity with quality, as even his career-high TS% barely beat the league average for the position.
KEVIN DURANT, SF
Projection: 29.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 2.9 ast per 40 min; 24.74 PER | Player card
• Tall, long-armed scoring prodigy with unblockable release. Deadly in transition.
• Great foul shooter. Lacks strength. Struggles to get open against physical D.
• Good handle but must improve passing. Length an asset on defense and boards.
It's really amazing that a player could lead the league in scoring while being so terrible at getting open, and one shudders to think what Durant might accomplish if he ever gets good at it. While Durant won another scoring title last season, his usage rate declined -- partly because teams realized that physical defense off the ball makes it a real challenge for the wiry Durant to receive the ball.
Once he catches it, though, you're pretty much cooked. Durant isn't just a volume scorer, he's efficient too, with a scintillating 58.9 TS%. In particular, Durant scores virtually every time when he can push the ball up in transition -- there's just no way to stop a fast 6-10 guy who can shoot, handle and finish once he has a head of steam. Partly as a result, Durant shot a ridiculous 77.2 percent at the rim, the second-best mark in the league among players with at least 100 attempts (see Tayshaun Prince comment).
He also hit over 40 percent from all three ranges between the rim and the 3-point line, and had one of the best free throw rates at his position at 0.44 per field goal attempt. His TS% may rise, as he had an off season on 3s last season, hitting 35 percent.
The one weakness for Durant is his court vision. He was only 55th among the league's 67 small forwards in assist rate; improving in that area might deflect some of the attention he's now given and make him even more effective.
Defensively, Durant is pretty solid. He can play a low-risk style and rely on his length to contest shots, meaning he virtually never fouls, and he was eighth among small forwards in defensive rebound rate. While he's rarely asked to guard elite wings, his Synergy and adjusted plus-minus the past two seasons are very solid.
SERGE IBAKA, PF
Projection: 16.3 pts, 12.0 reb, 0.5 ast per 40 min; 18.28 PER | Player card
• Athletic, long-armed, shot-blocking ace still learning fundamentals.
• Good outside shooter and excellent finisher at rim. Very good rebounder.
• Very poor instincts for passing and dribbling. Still a work in progress.
Ibaka's rapid evolution into a star continued last season, as he filled out physically, hit 40.5 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, and led the NBA in blocks per minute (see chart) ... and yet somehow spent two-thirds of the season backing up the thoroughly mediocre Jeff Green.
Most blocks per 40 minutes, 2010-11
Player Team Bk/40 min
Serge Ibaka OKC 3.57
JaVale McGee Was 3.52
Ekpe Udoh GS 3.34
Darko Milicic Min 3.32
Larry Sanders Mil 3.30
Min. 500 minutes
Green's trade allowed for Ibaka's long-overdue promotion to the starting five, where he seems likely to be a fixture for the next decade despite his raw offensive game. While Ibaka is very good at midrange catch-and-shoot situations and will finish dunks at the rim (he shot 73.6 percent in the basket area), anything that involves creating on his own or reading a defense casts a harsh light on his inexperience. He has 32 total assists in his two-year NBA career, and his pathetic 2.8 assist rate in 2010-11 was the worst among power forwards and the second-worst in the entire league (see Robin Lopez comment). His rawness also explains why he's not an offensive threat from the post, and why he averaged a modest 14.6 points per 40 minutes last season.
Additionally, some of the more subtle aspects of defense remain lost on Ibaka -- he's a great athlete and plays hard, but will get caught out of position or overpursue plays. Dirk Nowitzki's immolation of Ibaka in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals was the most prominent example, but as with all aspects of his game the fundamentals are still coming around. So despite his shot-blocking and rebounding, opposing big men could score on him -- according to 82games.com, he allowed a 17.1 PER to opposing power forwards, and 21.6 to opposing centers.
Ibaka is a very good rebounder, however, and getting better as the skinny frame he brought to the league three years ago evolves into something sturdier. Given that he's only 22, had virtually no high-level game experience when he arrived, and is already among the top third of players at his position, an All-Star Game seems possible in his future.
KENDRICK PERKINS, C
Projection: 9.6 pts, 12.1 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 10.04 PER | Player card
• Tough-as-nails post defender who likes physical play. Very strong.
• Plodding low-post game. Lacks elevation and takes forever to gather and go up.
• Sets bone-jarring screens but prone to offensive fouls. Loses cool with refs.
Perkins played on a still-mending knee for the second half of the season, and his numbers bore the brunt of his willingness to play through pain. His scoring rate dropped to a measly 9.4 per 40 minutes, and his always-high turnover rate went up even higher to an indefensible 23.0, the second-worst mark in basketball last season (see chart).
Worst Turnover Rate, 2010-11
Player Team TO Rate
Joel Przybilla Por-Cha 29.6
Kendrick Perkins Bos-OKC 23.0
Omer Asik Chi 21.3
Nikola Pekovic Min 21.1
Joey Dorsey Tor 20.1
Min. 500 minutes
Perkins' post-up efforts in the playoffs were near comic given his missing explosiveness. Never the most graceful of interior players, he was so floor-bound that his normally high-percentage short-range shooting became a much shakier proposition.
Fundamentally, one way Perkins could improve is by learning to go up off one foot. Any time he gets a rebound or close-in catch he brings the ball down, stops to gather himself, and then goes up off two feet in a power jump. This gives defenders plenty of time to react and catch up, and the ball often gets either knocked away before he can elevate or blocked by a recovering big man.
Otherwise, the Thunder are mainly depending on his knee continuing to recuperate. Even on one leg, his defensive numbers after the trade were very solid, so there's little doubt he can provide the bulldog post defender they needed. The only question is whether he can recover enough of his preinjury offensive game to remain a viable starter.
KEY RESERVES
JAMES HARDEN, G
Projection: 19.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.4 ast per 40 min; 16.75 PER | Player card
• Skilled left-hander who excels at pick-and-roll game. Draws lots of fouls.
• Left-dominant. Sees court well but turnover-prone. Good set shooter from 3.
• Improving defender who rebounds well. Good hands, but fouls too much.
Despite all the other talent on the OKC roster, at times you feel like Harden is the only guy on the team who actually knows how to play offense. Westbrook and Ibaka dominate solely on sheer athleticism, and while Durant is a scoring savant it's painful watching him try to get open or create for others. Harden, while less overwhelming talentwise, is much easier to appreciate -- a poor man's Manu Ginobili who generates offense for both himself and others off of actual basketball plays.
Harden's biggest skill is his ability to draw fouls on his drives, nearly all of which are on pick-and-rolls on the left side of the court. He ranked second among shooting guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, shot 84.3 percent at the line and had one of the highest 3-point rates at his position. So pay no mind to that low shooting percentage; Harden was sixth among shooting guards in TS% thanks to the third-best secondary percentage at his position. He likely will get better, too -- despite a good-looking stroke he made only 34.5 percent of his 3s in 2010-11.
Harden's post-trade numbers last season are particularly promising. After Jeff Green was shipped out and Harden became the third option, the Thunder guard averaged better than 22 points per 40 minutes and nearly five free throw attempts per game.
At just 22, he appears to be a rising star. One bugaboo left is his foul rate; while Harden's activity results in a high rate of steals, only five shooting guards fouled more frequently -- making it harder for him to play big minutes. Most notably, his wholly unnecessary sixth foul in Game 4 of the conference finals was the catalyst in the Thunder's shocking fourth-quarter collapse.
NICK COLLISON, PF
Projection: 9.4 pts, 8.7 reb, 1.6 ast per 40 min; 11.60 PER | Player card
• Plus-minus superstar who is among game's most underrated frontcourt defenders.
• Excels at taking charges, helping guards. B-level athlete. Undersized for the 5.
• Decent midrange shooter but rarely shoots. Will crash offensive boards.
Collison's plus-minus numbers defy explanation -- the list of the top players in adjusted plus-minus over the past few years is essentially a bunch of superstars and Nick Collison. According to this site, using the more advanced "regularized" adjusted plus-minus, Collison was fourth in the NBA last season at plus-5.0 points per 100 possession; of the top dozen players, he was the only one who hasn't been to at least one All-Star Game. He was 13th in 2010, so it's no fluke. In fact, according to basketballvalue.com over the two-year period, his plus-8.11 raw adjusted plus-minus ranks fifth in the league.
That doesn't make his game wartless. For one, his high foul rate makes it difficult to play him extended minutes. Moreover, Collison's offensive productivity took a worrying turn south last season. He scored only 8.6 points per 40 minutes, and while he at least contributed a high shooting percentage, his rates of rebounds and blocks also declined.
But he's still an ace defender, especially in help situations. In particular, Collison has become a master at taking charges over the past two seasons. While he's a bit of a tweener between 4 and 5, he makes up for it with preparation and good quickness for his size, and as a result is one of the most effective defenders in the game.
ERIC MAYNOR, PG
Projection: 11.9 pts, 4.0 reb, 7.9 ast per 40 min; 12.48 PER | Player card
• Steady PG with pass-first mindset. Good handle and size but B-grade athlete.
• Average outside shot, and struggles to get to rim. Must improve floater.
• Decent position defender. Has thin frame but moves well and competes.
Maynor certainly has the résumé to play the point: He was 10th in pure point rating and eighth in assist rate last season, with a special knack for throwing lobs. Unfortunately, he's going to be a career backup unless he starts scoring more effectively. Maynor averaged a meek 11.6 points per 40 minutes, and did it with one of the worst true shooting percentages at his position.
Maynor wasn't awful in any one category, but he struggled to generate shots at the rim because of his lack of explosiveness. He has tried to compensate by shooting floaters but didn't shoot them particularly well, and he doesn't draw fouls. He needs to either improve his 3-point shot or juice up his in-the-paint game to be a real offensive force. He'll stay in the league for a dozen years because of his steadiness at the point, but he might not ever be a starter.
NAZR MOHAMMED, C
Projection: 14.9 pts, 11.2 reb, 0.8 ast per 40 min; 14.72 PER | Player card
• Clever big man with knack for below-rim rebounding and short-range scoring.
• Mediocre mobility, limited leaping ability. Struggles in one-on-one defense.
• Ugly behind-head jumper with 12-foot range. Never passes. Bad hands.
Probably the best player in history with a first name ending in "zr," Mohammed is a sneakily effective scorer thanks to his offensive rebounding acumen. He ranked eighth among centers in offensive rebound rate, helping him score 16.7 points per 40 minutes -- big numbers for a center. He'd average even more if he could catch everything that came his way, but once a game a pass will fall harmlessly off his mitts and out of bounds. Off the catch, his mindset is strictly about scoring; Mohammed virtually never passes, as his assist ratio was the second worst among centers and the third worst in all of basketball.
Mohammed is a solid team defender and will rebound, but he can't be asked to guard good scorers. Even average players turn into stars against him -- opposing centers had a 23.1 PER against Mohammed in Oklahoma City and a 20.7 in Charlotte, according to 82games.com.
Between that and a high foul rate (one every 6.9 minutes), it's tough to give Mohammed extended burn. But few backup centers provide such an offensive boost, helping him retain value into his 30s despite limited athleticism.
DAEQUAN COOK, SG (FREE AGENT -- RESTRICTED)
Projection: 15.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.7 ast per 40 min; 11.92 PER | Player card
• Jump-shooting wing with strong catch-and-shoot game. Elevates well on jumper.
• Quality athlete, but a weak ball handler. Never ever ever goes to the basket.
• Solid, unspectacular defender but a bit undersized for the 3. Not a rebounder.
Cook shot horribly on 2s in his three seasons in Miami, so the Thunder had a novel solution: removing the 2s from his arsenal entirely. This is exactly what Jason Kapono should have done about half a decade ago, and you could see the benefits for Cook -- for the first time in his career, he was a useful rotation player.
Cook did what was asked of him, hitting 42.2 percent of his 3s and providing a much-needed floor-spacing component, but his shot chart was fairly amazing to behold. He took five shots at the rim the entire season. Five. All but nine of his 172 shots were outside 15 feet, and nearly all of those were 3-pointers -- only two players had a higher proportion of their shots from beyond the arc (see James Posey comment), and they were 30-somethings with careers on their last legs, not a 24-year-old.
Cook's catch-and-shoot focus yielded the highest TS% among small forwards and a low turnover rate, and he made enough shots that he averaged a solid 16.0 points per 40 minutes. None of this makes him a star, but it does make him a lot more useful than when he was taking half his shots inside the arc -- and shooting under 40 percent on them -- in Miami.
NATE ROBINSON, PG
Projection: 16.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.7 ast per 40 min; 11.52 PER | Player card
• Flaky, emotional, pint-sized guard with explosive hops. Aggressive scorer.
• Good outside shooter but shot selection an issue. Gets out of control.
• Strength, athleticism partly offset size on D. Loses focus, gambles and fouls.
Robinson really struggled in the Boston half of his season, which explains why the Oklahoma City portion was largely spent at the end of the bench. He only played 30 minutes in four garbage-time appearances for the Thunder and doesn't appear to be in the team's plans.
In 55 games with Boston, Robinson's shot betrayed him. He made only 32.8 percent of his 3s and 36.0 percent of his long 2s, and since he wasn't about to stop shooting -- Robinson had the fourth-worst pure point rating among point guards -- this became a problem. Quietly, he also has stopped drawing fouls. Robinson had the third-worst free throw rate among point guards, partly because more than half his shots were 3s and partly, one fears, because he's lost a step.
Defensively, Robinson is a mess. Only one point guard fouled more frequently, and he didn't offset it with steals; in fact his steal rate was painfully low. Again, one wonders if a loss of quickness is partly to blame; at 5-9, he can't afford to drop off much in that department, which explains why a lot of small guards fade quickly in their late 20s. Robinson is 27 and his chunky build probably isn't helping him any, so the clock is ticking.
COLE ALDRICH, C
No projection | Player card
• Long big man who was a step slow on virtually everything as a rookie.
• Offensive skills and finishing instincts a major question mark.
• Needs to improve defensive reactions and reduce fouls. Must add strength.
Aldrich played only 142 minutes, but he was bad enough in that time for the "b" word to form on people's lips. It's still too early to proclaim him a bust, but for a three-year college player who was drafted in the lottery, that was one ugly rookie season. Aldrich committed 30 fouls in his limited run, an amazing rate of one per 4.7 minutes, and had as many turnovers as baskets. Subjectively, he seemed overwhelmed by nearly everything, especially on defense.
In 21 D-League games he showed more promise. Aldrich blocked a shot every 11 minutes, cut the fouls to a more reasonable level and did solid work on the boards. Offensively, however, he still has a long way to go. Even against D-League competition he had a high turnover rate and barely averaged double figures.
If he can turn into a young Joel Przybilla clone -- which is certainly possible -- the Thunder won't sweat the lack of offense. But for a 23-year-old lottery pick, he's more of a project than advertised.
BYRON MULLENS, C
No projection | Player card
• 7-foot project with decent athleticism and a decent midrange jumper.
• Few other basketball skills. Needs to improve strength and get more reps.
Mullens played 85 NBA minutes all season, 29 of which came in a meaningless season-ender against Milwaukee, and his results were no better than his limited run a season earlier.
In 14 D-League games, however, he showed considerable improvement from the season before. Mullens showed some of the scoring ability that made him a first-round draft pick, averaging better than a point every two minutes while shooting 53.1 percent. His rebounding and shot-blocking were average at best, but the 22-year-old has shown he may yet become an effective pick-and-pop big man.
ROYAL IVEY, PG
No projection | Player card
• Defensive-minded combo guard with good lateral movement and intensity.
• Decent midrange shooter but struggles from distance.
• Below-average ball handler and decision-maker. A stopgap-only point guard.
Ivey played only 25 games for the Thunder and didn't dramatically alter his career prospects with his performance. Essentially, he was about what they expected -- a useful fifth guard because of his defense and the fact that he can make a 17-footer, but one who is utterly unsuited for any duty beyond that because of his grave offensive limitations.
Memphis Grizzlies:
spoiler (click to show/hide)
MIKE CONLEY, PG
Projection: 16.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 7.9 ast per 40 min; 17.17 PER | Player card
• Low-key lefty point guard with great straight-line speed. Good spot-up shooter.
• Undersized. Mediocre one-on-one defender but gets hands on the ball a lot.
• Improved right hand. Straight-line driver to rim; needs more moves, variety.
It wasn't quite a breakout year, but Conley finally established himself as a solid starter. He ran the team more confidently, improved his right hand, got his hands on the ball more and generally was more involved at both ends, leading to career bests in PER and in his assist and scoring rates.
Conley still struggles with his in-between game. He took nearly three shots a game between 3 and 15 feet but made only 33.8 percent of them; that was a huge drag on his field goal percentage. Despite his size, he shot 60.3 percent at the rim, and his marks from the perimeter (41.0 percent on long 2s, career 38.0 percent on 3s) are very solid.
However, he needs to either shoot more 3s or draw more fouls. Conley shot 3s unusually rarely for such a good shooter, and he tends to avoid contact on his drives. As a result, he was only 56th among point guards in secondary percentage.
Defensively, Conley struggles in one-on-one coverage, especially against bigger guards, but, off the ball, he's very good at getting deflections and creating havoc. He was seventh among point guards in steals per minute, and he did it without overt gambling -- one of several reasons the Griz led the NBA in forcing turnovers.
TONY ALLEN, SG
Projection: 16.1 pts, 5.3 reb, 2.8 ast per 40 min; 15.94 PER | Player card
• League's best perimeter defender. Smothering, handsy approach can yield fouls.
• Athletic; can get to rim and make plays. Poor ball handler prone to turnovers.
• Awful shooter with penchant for blowing layups. Disastrous decision-maker.
Zach Randolph is the Grizzlies' best player, but it was Allen who defined their season. His relentless defensive energy turned around what had been one of the league's most listless defensive squads a year earlier, and he proved surprisingly effective offensively despite often appearing on the brink of disaster.
Allen is simply the best perimeter defender in the game. He led all shooting guards in steals per minute and was second in blocks per minute, combining an in-your-face approach to one-on-one defense with a sixth sense for helping teammates. At times, he seemed to defend all five players by himself, most notably on one play in a regular-season game against the Thunder when he got two deflections outside the 3-point line, then raced back to reject a stunned Russell Westbrook at the rim.
The numbers back this up. According to Synergy, Allen was the most effective wing defender in the league and the third best overall; according to 82games.com, the Grizzlies gave up 5.7 fewer points per 100 possessions with Allen on the court. The cost of his aggression, however, is a sky-high foul rate. Allen had the third-highest rate among shooting guards at one every 9.3 minutes, so fouls took him off the court at times.
Offensively, Allen is a train wreck waiting to happen, but he's so athletic and relentless that he's still effective. Allen has a high dribble and makes terrible decisions, plus he misses a phenomenal number of layups. He's also a terrible outside shooter with a hitch in his delivery, which is why he had the second-worst secondary percentage at his position. However, he gets to the basket so much that he shot 51 percent.
Alas, he might not shoot as well this coming year. Allen is one of the Fluke Rule players for 2011-12 (see Lamar Odom comment), so we can expect his numbers to decline this coming season.
RUDY GAY, SF
Projection: 20.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 17.43 PER | Player card
• Athletic, long wing with unblockable rainbow jump shot.
• Tools to be great defender. Effort improved considerably in 2010-11.
• Needs to improve passing and draw more fouls. Too reliant on midrange J.
Statistically, Gay's season wasn't all that different from the previous three, but move in for a closer look. Before a shoulder injury prematurely ended his season, he was finally starting to get it. Gay's assists jumped to 2.8 per 40 minutes from his formerly pathetic numbers in the 1s, and although he still relies too much on simply outjumping defenders to get away a midrange jumper, he shot a career-best 47.1 percent from the floor.
The big change, however, was at the defensive end. Gay has always had the ability to excel but often sleepwalked at this end; last season, his focus was much better and allowed his talent to shine. Gay finished among the top 10 small forwards in blocks and steals per minute, and he did it with the 13th-lowest foul rate at his position. Gay also ranked in the top quarter of small forwards in Synergy's stats and permitted just a 12.6 opponent PER; Tony Allen aided that latter number very little, if you're curious, as the two were in the same starting lineup for only a handful of games.
To become an All-Star, the next step for Gay is to work more 3s and free throws into his scoring. His secondary percentage of 7.8 was only 48th best among small forwards; he's a good shooter, too, so taking more 3s (of which he made 39.6 percent last season) and earning more freebies would pad his numbers considerably.
ZACH RANDOLPH, PF
Projection: 20.4 pts, 12.1 reb, 2.0 ast per 40 min; 20.75 PER | Player card
• Ace low-post scorer with wide base, great hands and lefty rainbow J to 20 feet.
• Improved passer but still looks shot-first. Excels at rebounding own misses.
• Excellent rebounder but subpar help defender. Character still a question mark.
Randolph passed another phase in his increasing maturity by showing strong improvement as a passer. Formerly a black hole in the post, he constantly hit cutters in Memphis and ranked just above the average for power forwards in assist rate.
Randolph's other stats jump off the page. He shot 50 percent as the go-to guy on an otherwise very average offensive team, floating in lefty rainbows when he wasn't overpowering opponents closer to the rim.
The most amazing part was his rebound rate, a career-high 20.1. Despite spending so much time with his back to the basket, Randolph's phenomenal 14.2 offensive rebound rate was second among all power forwards; his overall rate was third. He is the best in the league at rebounding his own miss, with an almost supernatural instinct for where the carom will come.
I don't think people understand how unusual this was. The last player to have a usage rate as high as Randolph's and an offensive rebound rate as high was Moses Malone in 1987-88. Shawn Kemp had three seasons in the early '90s that very nearly matched those levels, and nobody since has come close. The only four players in post-merger history to match what Randolph did last season, or even come reasonably close to it, were Kemp, Malone, Charles Barkley and Hakeem Olajuwon.
Defensively, Randolph's effort is subpar. He owns the glass but rarely helps teammates at the rim; he also appears to avoid fouling at all costs, having the third-lowest foul rate among power forwards. He doesn't move particularly well defending the pick-and-roll, either, although his size is useful for guarding the block.
Randolph signed a four-year, $71 million extension toward the end of the season that amounts to a giant dice roll on his staying out of trouble. Randolph is 30, but his floor-bound post game shouldn't suffer much from the ravages of age; Memphis just has to hope that age continues to leave him wiser off the court.
MARC GASOL, C (FREE AGENT -- RESTRICTED)
Projection: 14.4 pts, 9.1 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 16.54 PER | Player card
• Skilled, unselfish center who can score from left block with hook or baseline J.
• Average defender and rebounder. Gained weight; conditioning an issue.
• Good foul shooter but average midrange J on floor. C athlete; plays below rim.
You can't take your eyes off Gasol because of the unintentional comedy -- the pre-tip stretching routine where he looks like a weekend hack at the Y, the awkward fist bumping and assorted winking and nodding, the free throw routine where he stares down and slaps the ball into the floor a few times before shooting ... it's endless.
What was less amusing was his notable weight gain from the previous season; that and an early-season ankle sprain conspired to taper his production a bit from a breakout 2009-10 campaign. Although he still had a solid campaign, Gasol's rebounding and shooting numbers suffered.
Gasol has a tendency to pass up shots, and although his pass-first instincts make him a good high-post distributor, one wishes he would call his own number more. On the block, he has a running skyhook and a turnaround to the left baseline, but he will pass at the first hint of a double.
Despite his girth, Gasol is a pretty solid defensive player. He knows where to be, takes care of the boards and is more nimble than he looks. If he keeps gaining weight, however, this is going to change rather quickly. Gasol was flabby as a younger player but got into great shape in 2009-10; the worry is that he'll sign a big contract before the season, then start packing on the pounds.
KEY RESERVES
O.J. MAYO, SG
Projection: 18.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 14.22 PER | Player card
• Scoring wing with accurate jumper. Good off curls. More scorer than shooter.
• Good ball handler but lacks burst. Average passer. Has strength to finish at rim.
• Average at best defensively. Struggles against size, doesn't always play hard.
Mayo had a rough year that included a drug suspension, a benching and an in-flight butt-kicking from teammate Tony Allen. Mayo's shooting numbers also continued their puzzling downward trajectory, as he set career lows in shooting from the field, on 3s and at the line. He landed a mere 58th out of 66 shooting guards in TS%, a disastrous standing for a player whose shooting ability is his main differentiating talent.
Mayo, surprisingly, didn't shoot 3s particularly often, ranking 32nd in 3-point attempts per minute despite playing for a team that desperately needed a steady perimeter threat. He didn't shoot well on long 2s either (37.8 percent), although he is very good coming off left-side curls going to his right. One suspects his shooting numbers will right themselves this season.
Mayo fans sometimes talk him up as a point guard, but frankly, I don't see it. He's a good ball handler but has trouble beating 2s off the dribble, let alone 1s, and he doesn't have much in the way of court vision. He could succeed at playing the point only as a caretaker and spot-up shooter, the way the Lakers use their point guards.
Defensively, Mayo doesn't always play hard and lacks size, but he picked up his energy toward the end of the season and proved useful against Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook in the playoffs. On the other hand, his regular-season production was pretty awful -- opposing shooting guards posted a 19.6 PER against him, and Synergy ranked Mayo near the bottom of the shooting guard heap.
SHANE BATTIER, SF (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 9.5 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 11.47 PER | Player card
• Heady defender who takes advantage of length, rarely makes mistakes.
• Good corner 3-point shooter but slow, low release. Good at post entry.<
