The NBA thread

[Phoenix Dark]

I said wow. Amazing how far the stat heads have come in basketball.

Grizzlies hire John Hollinger
Updated: December 13, 2012, 7:30 PM ET


John Hollinger, a fixture of ESPN.com's coverage of the NBA for the past eight seasons and one of the leaders in basketball's rising statistical analysis movement in the past decade, is leaving his role as a columnist to become the vice president of basketball operations for the Memphis Grizzlies.

Best known for hatching the formula behind every player's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) -- which attempts to quantify player performance through the use of an all-in-one rating -- Hollinger will begin work as a senior executive in the Grizzlies' basketball department next week.

"It's incredibly difficult to leave ESPN, but the chance to work for an NBA team and the Grizzlies' new ownership was an irresistible opportunity," Hollinger said Thursday.

Hollinger was recruited to the Grizzlies by new controlling owner Robert Pera and CEO/managing partner Jason Levien, who have made upgrading Memphis' analytics department one of their front-office priorities. The Grizzlies also hired Stu Lash on Thursday as their director of player personnel and basketball development.

"We are thrilled to have John and Stu join the Grizzlies," Levien said in a release. "Both of these individuals will provide innovative and unique perspectives that bolster the organization's future."

Sources close to the situation told ESPN.com that the move won't change the status of Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace but added that Hollinger will be a "prominent voice in the team's front office beyond providing statistical analysis."

Hollinger, 41, founded the website "Alleyoop" in 1996 to launch his online career as a basketball sabermetrician and authored a series of books originally known as the "Pro Basketball Prospectus" and later titled "Pro Basketball Forecast."

He went on to work for The Oregonian newspaper's online site (OregonLive.com) and served as the NBA editor of Sports Illustrated's online site (SI.com) before joining ESPN.com in February 2005.

whoa. Will be interesting to see how this goes

[TakingBackSunday]

must have cormac's opinion on hollinger's hire

also lol lakers

[Cormacaroni]

ugh, missed all the games so far. Is the Knicks one what I should be watching? Without spoiling if possible?

Without saying the score I think you can tell how its going so far by the posts.

Yeah.

Really enjoying watching the Knicks now. Crazy how this team has come together. I mean, they're basically playing D'Antoni ball with much the same level of personnel

I really like Woodson's demeanour though. When you hear him talking to guys on the bench or coming in or out, he always projects calm confidence and encouragement at them. In particular, those who need it like JR Smith. He'll just pat them on the butt and say something like 'Good minutes boy' and the player looks like a dog that just got a sugarlump. What he said about JR was really interesting to me - he said he would make sure that JR was successful because he saw something he really liked there. I normally don't think the mental game is all that important, but for players like JR, it sure seems to be. Obviously he doesn't need to say much to the likes of Chandler or Kidd.

[Cormacaroni]

OMG

HOLLINGER RUNNING A TEAM

AT LAST

Will miss the columns though. But plenty of other great stat-influenced writers have sprung up. Glad the Prof is gettin' paid and getting to test some theories.

[Smooth Groove]

at least Lakers fans can rejoice in Kobe adding 10 extra meaningless pts in the last few minutes

[Phoenix Dark]

Rob Parker, ladies and gentlemen. NFL focus but he's just as bad in basketball related shit

[Smooth Groove]

Knicks D is really terrible.  I was anticipating a comeback early in the 3rd quarter because of how many layups and putbacks NY was giving up.  It's almost like NY wants the other team to score so they can get the ball back faster. 

It's amazing that they're on pace to win at least 55 playing like this. 

[Cormacaroni]

hey, that's how that high school kid (or whoever) scored 138...i'm sure Novacaine would love a shot at that

[Flannel Boy]

Rob Parker, ladies and gentlemen. NFL focus but he's just as bad in basketball related shit

He's a quarterback, with a roman numeral after his last name, who studied political science and has an endorsement deal with Castrol Motor Oil. He's just stating the obvious.


 :himu

[pilonv1]

OMG

HOLLINGER RUNNING A TEAM

AT LAST

Will miss the columns though. But plenty of other great stat-influenced writers have sprung up. Glad the Prof is gettin' paid and getting to test some theories.

No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis.

[Cormacaroni]

Where did he place in your pre-draft analysis?

[pilonv1]

Where did he place in your pre-draft analysis?

I was right on Draymond Green though!

[Cormacaroni]

The MVP voting has always been momentum-based rather than reality-based. Even MJ got jobbed multiple times. It's not something I lose any sleep about. Derrick Rose was not MY MVP but he's a great, exciting player who was certainly one of the best in the league.

The biggest issue with Melo for MVP though, is that Durant is basically better at the same stuff Melo does, got to the Finals, will likely win the scoring title and finish just as high as Melo in the standings (with a better win total). So the 'Not LeBron' vote could well be split closely between those two, ensuring LeBron gets his due again.

[benjipwns]

Saw this on RealGM:

[Cormacaroni]

hush your mouth, i don't care if it means a whitewash, i want Ricky Rubio

[Stoney Mason]

Two interesting games tonight although neither are on normal tv.

Houston at New York and San Antonio at Oklahoma City.

[TakingBackSunday]

Lin

[Smooth Groove]

Linsanity probably read this before playing

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/8754302/stephen-smith-new-york-knicks-better-jeremy-lin

[Stoney Mason]

Stephen A is an idiot so there is always that.

But Lin has been playing pretty poorly this season. You can attribute some of that to the new team, the injury, the addition of Harden, etc but his numbers were awful. Lately he's been getting better though and raising his FG% which was in the toilet early on mainly due to awful jump shooting.

You can't really judge the knicks tonight because Carmelo didn't play but in general I'm not sure what to make of the Knicks. They are clearly better than they were last year and the addition of Kidd seems to have elevated the locker-room professionalism and made passing contagious on the team which are always good things.

Their defense is still meh outside of Chandler. Their rebounding sucks. And any team that has to depend on JR Smith is asking for heartbreak. But then again its not like the Heat look perfect right now or anything and they have their own defensive issues. 

[Cormacaroni]

Lin was never an outside threat but I think he'd heat up if he was able to employ his drive and kick game more rather than being a spot-up shooter all the time. He seems much better physically than at the start of the season.

No matter what his ceiling though, there is no way he is challenging Harden's role as primary ballhandler and scorer, so they may as well either give him the bench microwave role now or look at trading him. He's too good to play alongside Harden all the time - his numbers soar when playing without him.

From True Hoop -

Lin’s role in the offense also shifts based on the personnel on the court. His usage percentage is 17.0 with James Harden on the court and 27.5 when Harden’s on the bench. Lin is averaging 14.3 points per 48 minutes with Harden on the floor and 26.3 points per 48 minutes with Harden on the bench.

[Stoney Mason]

Lakers are down 12, at home, to the 7-16 Bobcats.

This is just who they are. They aren't turning shit around, and it's doubtful they make the playoffs.

Looks like they've pulled ahead but yeah they have issues. I think they will make the playoffs though. Eventually they should be better than or at least in contention with Minnesota, Utah, or Denver.

[Robo]

The Wiz can't close fer nothin'.  I have a hard time believing this team is as bad as their record indicates—someone give me the statistical lowdown.

[Stoney Mason]

The Wiz can't close fer nothin'.  I have a hard time believing this team is as bad as their record indicates—someone give me the statistical lowdown.

Their offense is dreadful. 30th (last) in points per game and 30th in offensive fg %.

Pretty much every team statistic relating to offense they are wreteched.

[benjipwns]

NBA files trademarks for NOLA on Pelicans, Rougarou, Mosquitos, Swamp Dogs, Bullsharks.

[pilonv1]

LOLkers

[etiolate]

Lakers barely beat bobcats to remain a lottery team. Hawks and Warriors continue to win. Why are the Lakers the top story? because the NBA is sheeeeeeeeeeeeet.

[Cormacaroni]

so unjust the way people keep being interested in what they're interested in, despite some teams being in smaller markets and therefore nobler

[TakingBackSunday]

Lin should be a starter for another team.  Rockets do well with AND without him depending on Harden's status...maybe he has a role on the Bobcats.

[Mandark]

so unjust the way people keep being interested in what they're interested in, despite some teams being in smaller markets and therefore nobler

A problem unique to the NBA!

[pilonv1]

Lakers barely beat bobcats to remain a lottery team. Hawks and Warriors continue to win. Why are the Lakers the top story? because the NBA is sheeeeeeeeeeeeet.

Hawks don't win when they play the Warriors

[etiolate]

so unjust the way people keep being interested in what they're interested in, despite some teams being in smaller markets and therefore nobler

warriors and hawks aren't smaller markets

Last year when the Pacers got to the playoffs and got far enough to get on ABC, the announcers actually had to address the audience with "well I guess a lot of you and us may be unfamiliar with the Pacers".

That's sad. This is a playoff team in pro sports. You don't have playoff teams in the NFL that the national audience is clueless about. You have that in the NBA because it's not just that they follow pre-scripted narratives, but that they do it to the exception of all else. What is actually going on in the league doesn't matter. You may have Tebow-mania in the NFL, but you will still have talk of the Seahawks even though they don't fit pre-season expectations.

Also, I am always willing to back up what I say.  I do get tired of shitting on people's poor replies.

[Cormacaroni]

You know that the Bucks and Hawks are doing well (despite having quit watching the league many times!); so do I. You know that the Lakers are not doing well; so do I. The only problem is this misplaced concern about what OTHER people should be interested in.

The Lakers are headline news because they have a lot of interesting players, should be title contenders, but are not. This is unquestionably interesting, even if the actual games are horrible, disinterested blowouts for the most part. They have also won approx. half of all the available NBA championships to date, which has gained them a hell of a lot of fans and haters nationwide (in fact, globally).

The Bucks and Hawks, however unexpected their relative success, are still far from being contenders. Neither were the Pacers last year. Lots of League Passers have been pushing the Bucks as the most fun League Pass team this year - heard this on the Basketball Jones just yesterday, and pilonv1 has been pimping them for a while. And let's face it, it's still December. Only the hardcore are going to care at this point. You don't need to watch basketball all year to get the picture prior to the playoffs unless you actually enjoy it - you can just tune in after the All-Star break and still be totally set. With football, every game is an event. In basketball, there are no events until May really. If the Bucks are still going by then, the country will know about them. If not, why should they care, really?

If your point is that this is the fault of the League somehow, I put it to you that anyone in the world can now watch every Bucks or Hawks game, live or recorded, on damn near any device. They're holding up their end of the bargain. There are a gazillion bloggers and podcasters pointing out these teams too. If you are only going to watch the game of the night on Sportscenter, well, that's your prerogative. Basketball isn't THAT interesting that it is a national obligation to watch...

[Stoney Mason]

I'm waiting for etiolate to start his basketball boycotts during the regular season...

[Cormacaroni]

mmm hmm

If one were to get upset on behalf of any team in recent years for this reason, it would be the Spurs you'd think. I mean, teams with multiple All Stars, the best coach in basketball, who had actually won something, and had the best record in the league was being basically written off and ignored for most of the past 3-4 seasons as being too old and too slow and too defensive-minded when they were playing the fastest most exciting offensive basketball in the league and winning like crazy. That's a cause I would maybe stand up for - in fact, I'm pretty sure I did so ITT. But there is more to making a team interesting than having them win a little bit more than expected, right?

[Human Snorenado]

mmm hmm

If one were to get upset on behalf of any team in recent years for this reason, it would be the Spurs you'd think. I mean, teams with multiple All Stars, the best coach in basketball, who had actually won something, and had the best record in the league was being basically written off and ignored for most of the past 3-4 seasons as being too old and too slow and too defensive-minded when they were playing the fastest most exciting offensive basketball in the league and winning like crazy. That's a cause I would maybe stand up for - in fact, I'm pretty sure I did so ITT. But there is more to making a team interesting than having them win a little bit more than expected, right?

Not if they're etoilet's team!

[Stoney Mason]

Basketball for regular folks is a game about Superstars. It's why people focus on the big teams, especially when those teams have the big stars. Of course when small market teams get big players, like the Thunder or they become so good that ignoring them is impossible, that is when the media switches their focus. Its the way it is. I'm not even sure who Etiolate is complaining about per se outside of his blanket statement. The league. League promotion. Espn, etc.

The Lakers are the Yankees of basketball. They will always draw disproportionate interest. It's like complaining about everybody on Television shows being too pretty. Yeah its true. But we know this is the way the world operates. Outside of the local area in every sport except football most people only follow their local teams and the big "national" teams that crossover because of their history.

I don't follow baseball at all anymore. I never know who is doing well or not outside of my local team. But guess what. I can pretty much always tell you how the Yankees or Red Sox are doing simply by cultural osmosis.

[pilonv1]

so unjust the way people keep being interested in what they're interested in, despite some teams being in smaller markets and therefore nobler

warriors and hawks aren't smaller markets

I usually don't make that argument for the Warriors because they're not a big market for basketball. They're always behind the 49ers and Giants even in their own area, mostly because they've sucked.

[Mandark]

It ain't scientific, but the number of people "talking about this" according to Facebook:

Dallas Cowboys: 767,432
New England Patriots: 559,615
Pittsburgh Steelers: 432,584
Tom Brady: 198,310
Oakland Raiders: 151,528
Drew Brees: 110,060
Seattle Seahawks: 98,331
Cincinnati Bengals: 13,228
Jacksonville Jaguars: 12,529


All sports have glamour teams that get extra attention and have bigger fanbases because of history or market or semi-recent success or whatever.  All pro team sports have star players, including players with media coverage disproportionate to their talent, whose celebrity somewhat transcends their team.

This isn't a new or NBA-only phenomenon.  It's just sports.

[Cormacaroni]

Let's just close our eyes for a moment and imagine a world in which a cruel axis of David Stern, ESPN and etoliate FORCES us to pay equal attention to the likes of the Hawks and the Bucks, and denies us the massive schadenfreude of watching 5 minutes of Hack-a-Dwight/Kobe Badgerface/'MWP for THREE, rebounded by xxx' playcalls and so forth

Is this really a world we want to live in

[Flannel Boy]

so unjust the way people keep being interested in what they're interested in, despite some teams being in smaller markets and therefore nobler

warriors and hawks aren't smaller markets

Last year when the Pacers got to the playoffs and got far enough to get on ABC, the announcers actually had to address the audience with "well I guess a lot of you and us may be unfamiliar with the Pacers".

That's sad. This is a playoff team in pro sports. You don't have playoff teams in the NFL that the national audience is clueless about.

The NFL is insanely popular, every game is on national TV, fantasy football is kind of big, and there are only eight teams in the first round.

Obviously, there's a feedback loop in the NBA, as with all sports, in which popular players and teams get a ton of coverage and then that coverage makes those players and teams more popular. It's known as the Wrath-effect--and there's nothing you can do about it.

[ToxicAdam]

Not only does it make them more popular, but it also makes them more polarizing. So not only do they have more fans, but they have more haters that want to see them fail. The 'Notre Dame effect'.

Nobody is tuning into a Sacramento game to watch them fail.

[pilonv1]

My enjoyment of sports is inversely proportional to the amount of ESPN I watch.

[etiolate]

so unjust the way people keep being interested in what they're interested in, despite some teams being in smaller markets and therefore nobler

warriors and hawks aren't smaller markets

I usually don't make that argument for the Warriors because they're not a big market for basketball. They're always behind the 49ers and Giants even in their own area, mostly because they've sucked.

True. I don't see a lot of Warriors gear around here, but I do see Raiders/Niners. Plus, the Oakland taint kind of hurts marketability. It will be interesting to see what happens if they get a SF city arena.

[Steve Contra]

They need to drop the "Golden State Warriors" name straight off.  People in Oakland don't give a fuck about them, and people in San Francisco don't either.  People in San Jose do for whatever reason.  Even moving to SF isn't going to help much though, because it's not really a Basketball area historically and will continue to not be so.  Giants, 49ers and Raiders more than do it for most people around here.

[Stoney Mason]

The Warriors don't have much of a presence because they've either been bad or irrevelant for most of their history outside of the relatively old now TMC era. For most of the US the Warriors play in a timezone where we never get to see their games. I think if you were to ask the average person they would even know a team called the golden state warriors existed.

That being said I was actually impressed when I lived in Nocal about how passionate (and delusional) the hardcore fans were about that team. 

[Steve Contra]

There's fans of every shitty team out there.  The funniest thing about the Warriors is how often I get asked why Oakland or San Francisco doesn't have an NBA team and when I tell people there is the Warriors the most common response? "I thought they were in San Diego"

[Cormacaroni]

My impression is that Warriors fans (who actually go the games) are awesome, some of the most devoted in the league. They certainly make Hawks fans look awful.

Globally, well...they shoulda kept J-Lin

[Steve Contra]

I don't know a single devoted Warrior's fan from SF or the East Bay.  South Bay?  Like 40 Phillipino dudes who go to a game a week.  I think the team would have been best off just to go to San Jose and rename their team.

[Stoney Mason]

There's fans of every shitty team out there. 

True but my anecdotal experience was that Warriors fans were a lot more knowledgeable about their team and passionate about basketball. This is of course meaningless as any sort of real insight but every time I ran into warriors fan they had very strong ideas about their team. Which wasn't the case in some of the other cities I've been to.   But perhaps I was just running into a hotbeat of fans. I lived in Marin county at the time.

[benjipwns]

Nobody is tuning into a Sacramento game to watch them fail.

This is why I watch Pistons games, sans-Drummond.

[Cormacaroni]

The 2006 Warriors - Mavs series had some of the most electric crowds I've ever seen - damn shame they're never in the playoffs.

[Beezy]

Knicks

Nets

[pilonv1]

The 2006 Warriors - Mavs series had some of the most electric crowds I've ever seen - damn shame they're never in the playoffs.

They've been around 10th in attendance since then as well, despite winning 20-30 games.

[Smooth Groove]

real talk

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/kobe-bryant-ego-hampers-dwight-hoard-los-angeles-lakers-downfall-121812

[Mandark]

The problem is deeper than touches. It’s a mentality that a big man must have in order to lead his team. Dwight Howard must enter every NBA arena with this mindset: “If I don’t hunt and kill, no one eats tonight.”

Ah, the sports journalist as PUA.

[Cormacaroni]

odd thing to object to Kobe doing, then

[Mandark]

Whitlock's argument is that Dwight's the most talented at this point, so he should be the alpha.  And Kobe being the alpha keeps Dwight from being the alpha, which makes them bad.  Just like the Heat were bad the first year with LeBron when he wasn't being the alpha.  Even though he admits that Dwight needs to dominate on defense and the Lakers shouldn't necessarily change what they're doing on offense.  So Kobe can keep dominating the ball, so long as he yelling "this is your team, Dwight!" as he takes his 25th shot.  Or something.

Also that the Lakers historically succeed when led by a big man, in the Mikan/Wilt/Kareem/Shaq line.  Cause Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Magic Johnson and Kobe don't really matter.

[benjipwns]

Makes sense to me, let's make Dwight the alpha: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=8wl2lod

[Mandark]

There's probably something very pithy to be said about Kobe playing for MJ.  So please pretend I said it.

[Smooth Groove]

I get what he's saying.  Big men tend to get lazy on D when they feel that they don't get enough touches. 

What's PUA?