Kevin Pelton giving Hollinger some love. Quite exciting that they have a bunch of trade exemption cash to spend this season without worrying about the tax, as well the option of dealing Z-Bo without really getting worse this season.
spoiler (click to show/hide)
With Thursday's three-way trade sending Rudy Gay to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for a package headlined by Raptors forward Ed Davis and Tayshaun Prince of the Detroit Pistons, the Memphis Grizzlies are attempting to pull off the most difficult of NBA balancing acts -- building for the future while continuing to win now. Can they achieve both goals? Let's take a look.
Contending in the West
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The obvious question for the Grizzlies is how they replace the point production Gay provided. At 17.2 points per game, he was the leading scorer on a team that is often starved for points. From the perspective of the Memphis front office, including Per Diem predecessor John Hollinger, that scoring came at a price. Gay was one of the league's most inefficient high scorers, with a true shooting percentage -- incorporating 3s and free throws -- of .478, far below the league average of .530. Prince, Gay's likely replacement in the starting lineup, has a superior .503 TS%.
At the same time, Gay's ability to create shots did have value. He was responsible for using a team-high 25.6 percent of the Grizzlies' plays while on the floor, far higher than Prince's usage rate in Detroit (18.3 percent). Memphis probably will fill in those extra plays by committee. My SCHOENE projection system sees each of the team's starters boosting their scoring average by at least 0.5 points per game (see table).
Scoring Averages To Go Up?
Player Current PPG Proj. PPG
Randolph 15.8 16.5
Gasol 13.7 14.2
Conley 13.0 13.7
Prince 11.7 (Det.) 12.9
Bayless 5.8 10.3
Allen 8.2 9.5
The player who figures to add the most scoring responsibility is sixth man Jerryd Bayless, who averaged 11.4 points per game last year in Toronto. Bayless has been less prolific this year, in part because he has focused on playmaking as the backup to point guard Mike Conley. The emergence of rookie Tony Wroten has freed up Bayless to play off the ball, and he has scored double figures in each of his past four games. Look for Bayless to continue to see more playing time and occasionally finish games at shooting guard next to Conley.
For the rest of the Grizzlies, more shot attempts will mean lower shooting percentages. Research has shown a consistent tradeoff between additional usage and TS%. When we account for the value of Gay's usage, his adjusted TS% is better than Prince's mark and nearly identical to Memphis' average as a team. So the Grizzlies probably will decline on offense, though not by much. SCHOENE projects the new Memphis lineup will rank 22nd in the NBA in offensive rating -- a slight decline from the Grizzlies' current ranking of 20th.
No matter who's at small forward, Memphis wins with grit, grind and defense. Only the Indiana Pacers allow fewer points per possession than the Grizzlies, and that doesn't figure to change by swapping out Gay for the long-limbed Prince. Though Prince is no longer regarded as an elite stopper, Detroit has defended small forwards better than any other position this season. Opposing 3s are posting a 10.9 PER against Prince, per 82games.com, an improvement on the 13.4 PER Gay has allowed.
There's no question that Gay is the more talented player, and has been more productive as recently as last season. However, Prince is perfectly capable of replacing the production Gay has offered during a down year for him. Consider this move mostly a wash in the short term, one tilting Memphis slightly more toward defense instead of offense. The Grizzlies remain in a fight for the fourth seed in the Western Conference and home-court advantage in the first round, but far behind the top three contenders in the West.
Future flexibility
By shedding some $4.5 million in salary this season, $7.5 million next year, and more than $10 million in 2014-15, Memphis has finally removed the financial noose that hung around the franchise's neck since extending or re-signing Conley, Gay, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in a 17-month span. The Grizzlies gathered a number of trade exceptions by creatively structuring both this deal and last week's trade with Cleveland. The team now has enough room to spend the largest of these exceptions -- $7.5 million for Gay himself -- to add salary before the trade deadline and still remain under the luxury tax line.
One interesting name to watch is J.J. Redick, who might be available in the final season of his contract with the Orlando Magic and would fit neatly within Memphis' new trade exception. Redick would give Memphis more scoring, shooting and creativity at the two-guard spot, their biggest long-term need. Since plenty of teams covet Redick, trading for him would probably require giving up the newly acquired Davis.
Then again, the Grizzlies may see Davis and not Randolph as their power forward of the future. After moving into the Toronto starting lineup in place of Andrea Bargnani, Davis thrived, averaging 12.9 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on 55.7 percent shooting. The 23-year-old Davis is a better fit with the rest of the team's core (Conley is 25 and Gasol 28) in terms of age than Randolph, 31.
The trick is finding the right landing spot for Randolph. Though he's an All-Star, the combination of his age and salary ($34.3 million over the two seasons after this one) makes him a tough fit for most of the teams that have a need at power forward. One notable exception is the Brooklyn Nets, who could build an offer around Kris Humphries' shorter contract and have hardly shied away from adding salary. A package of Humphries and MarShon Brooks might give the Grizzlies both scoring prowess on the perimeter and a chance at cap space in the summer of 2014.
Because the luxury tax is no longer looming, Memphis doesn't have any pressure to move Randolph. However, if trading Gay even after getting under the tax this season has taught us anything, it's that the new Grizzlies front office won't shy away from making aggressive moves.
The danger for Memphis was becoming a Western Conference version of the Atlanta Hawks of recent vintage -- never seriously a contender, with little hope of ever getting to that point and a window in danger of snapping closed. Instead, the Grizzlies have extended their timetable by getting younger and adding financial flexibility. And it looks as though they've done it without dealing their chances this season much of a blow, if any.
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