This reminds me of the ACA repeal, where everything was so blatantly, egregiously fucked up (in terms of process, policy, public opinion, everything) yet there were only ever 3 or 4 Republican Senators in play, and we all just accepted that 90% of their caucus was a lock regardless.
The only chance Kavanaugh isn't confirmed depends on two women holding out against pressure from the rest of the caucus.