"A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics

[Joe Molotov]

Oh God, scroll down and read Chambers' reply to the beating he's taking in FB comments.

Dean Chambers successfully predicted he'd eat 83% of the Halloween candy in that giant bowl on his hall stand before the first trick-or-treater knocked on the door.

[Boogie]

*not available in your country*

Fuck you, youtube.

[Trurl]

One really encouraging thing from the past couple of weeks has been Elizabeth Warren pretty much (hopefully) locking up her election.  It's just really weird and borderline offensive to have a Republican himbo in Teddy's seat.

Maybe it'll be a good thing that Brown beat Martha Coakley if the end result is Warren being in the Senate.

[Human Snorenado]

*not available in your country*

Fuck you, youtube.

First poutine, now this.

[Dickie Dee]

[Phoenix Dark]

(Image removed from quote.)

[Great Rumbler]

I really hope that Obama doesn't win the electoral college but not the popular vote, because that would basically be the worst possible outcome. 

[Stoney Mason]

I made Freedom Count. I Voted early.

says my sticker


Decent turnout out where I went to vote. In fact I almost drove off when I saw the line but said fuck it since I was already there and just waited and voted.

[Phoenix Dark]

I really hope that Obama doesn't win the electoral college but not the popular vote, because that would basically be the worst possible outcome. 

Bill Maher was cheering for this last night, and GAF is full of posters who want the same thing. People are going to get mad no matter what if Obama wins, but it'll be worse if if loves the PV but wins because of the EV. I don't want to see that, period.

It could happen if the south votes at the rate Gallup suggests, but if not then Obama should win the PV by at least 1%. And if the polls are accurate, he'll win the EV by a good margin.

The thing that really annoys/concerns me is the right's focus on national polling, and how the media is playing along. Given Gallup's sample methodology (whiter, older voters and a heavy weighing of southern voters) it's very likely that Obama will be losing in the final Gallup poll next month. If he wins the election due to taking states that actually matter (Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin) there are going to be a lot of republicans who will claim the election was stolen, and I feel like the media has already set the ground work for them. Even in 08 you didn't see many people outright argue Obama stole the election due to fraud/ACORN; Fox, elected officials, etc were outraged over ACORN, but I don't remember many people definitively stating Obama didn't actually win. It'll be very interesting to see what mainstream elected republicans say if Obama wins despite national polls showing him down. I'm sure there will always be tea party types to claim fraud, but I'm talking about the Cantors, Boehners, McCains, etc

Erick Erickson is 100% convinced Romney will win, and all he talks about is national polls. I really get the impression a lot of these people know Romney is probably fucked, and are really just setting the stage for the next big (lucrative) outrage story.

[Barry Egan]

On the one hand, I think the poll aggregate sites (538, Votomatic, etc.) are making it clear just how terrible the media has been at giving people a realistic expectation of what will happen on election day.  They've likely always been this bad about it, but it's only becoming clear right now because of the emergence of these aggregate sites.  It's a great example of why there is such a pronounced distrust of the media in the first place.  The larger picture goes completely unconveyed because LATEST POLL SHOWS BIG ROMNEY LEAD might grab more attention in a daily cycle.  And when the disconnect between reality and these reports become apparent the distrust will be projected on to the winning administration more than the reporters and pundits.  My hope is that when the aggregate sites are proven right over a long period of time they start to actually take the mantal of standard-bearer for election reporting.     

[Phoenix Dark]

I doubt it though. The media was predicting a close election well into October 2008 too. A close "dead heat" election is perceived to keep voters interested more than a blowout, so we'll probably never see the news reflect reality. Back in 2008 the only person I remember who was constantly discussing "the math" was Chuck Todd, and of course now he has morphed into the ultimate Beltway clown. To make matters worse, there seems to be an impression that being too confident on one side winning, even if evidence backs you up=not being fair and  balanced.

The problem with aggregates from a news perspective is that they never produce breaking news. A Gallup poll showing a 6 point Romney lead provides the news media folks prefer, and it's much easier to turn into a sexy healine than "Aggregate of Poll Date Suggests Persistent Obama Lead."

And of course, whenever Nate Silver goes on tv he's quite nerdy and mouth breathy, which isn't nearly as exciting to viewers as just getting a couple loud people to feign confidence. I gotta say, this whole "Romney momentum" thing has been an embarrassment.

[Barry Egan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/health/us-to-sponsor-health-insurance-plans-nationwide.html

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration will soon take on a new role as the sponsor of at least two nationwide health insurance plans to be operated under contract with the federal government and offered to consumers in every state.

....

The national plans will compete directly with other private insurers and may have some significant advantages, including a federal seal of approval. Premiums and benefits for the multistate insurance plans will be negotiated by the United States Office of Personnel Management, the agency that arranges health benefits for federal employees.

...

Robert E. Moffit, a senior fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said he worried that “the nationwide health plans, operating under terms and conditions set by the federal government, will become the robust public option that liberals always wanted.”

waaaahhh?!  This seems kind of too good to be true.  Can someone smarter than me explain why this actually is not as awesome as it sounds? (this question excludes all Libertarian explanations)

[Phoenix Dark]

Hold on, what the fuck? That's basically a public option, and positioned to go in effect right as the private insurance exchanges open up; in short, it's a pretty blatant cost control/competition threat for insurances. I could be misreading all this but...seriously, how did everyone miss this for two years?

I can certainly understand why the administration didn't talk about this - can anyone imagine Ben Nelson and company voting for something like that?

[Trurl]

I really hope that Obama doesn't win the electoral college but not the popular vote, because that would basically be the worst possible outcome. 

Bill Maher was cheering for this last night, and GAF is full of posters who want the same thing. People are going to get mad no matter what if Obama wins, but it'll be worse if if loves the PV but wins because of the EV. I don't want to see that, period.

While I've been annoyed by Romney's dash to the center late in the election season, I do sincerely hope that the GOP moves away from the extreme right in the coming years.  Any positive change in the GOP will be delayed or prevented by a pv/ec that re-elects Obama.  Nobody should be hoping for this. 

If it does happen, liberals should be assertive about Obama's right to be president but avoid the desire to rub the outcome into Republican noses.  Save the snide comments for the confines of secretive liberal cabals where middle America can't hear you. 

[Mupepe]

I agree. Any desire to make politics more gridlocked is just as bad the far right IMO. I assume most people who are passionate about politics, no matter what ideology just want to make the world better. I hope they do at least.

[Phoenix Dark]

http://www.examiner.com/article/reality-vs-liberal-fantasy-world-the-presidential-polling?cid=db_articles

[Himu]

From XBL:

Which candidate is more truthful about his policies?

Male:

Barack Obama - 42.4%
Mitt Romney - 52.3%
Not sure - 5.3%

Female:

Barack Obama - 61.6%
Mitt Romney - 35.5%
Not sure - 2.9%

 

[Joe Molotov]

DAT WHITE MALE VOTE

[Positive Touch]

oh shit, one of my normally-quiet religious cousins just made a facebook post talking about how powerful obama's america 2016 is and how it seemed impossible to refute all the evidence in the film

god grant me the strength to resist temptation to troll

[Trent Dole]

One really encouraging thing from the past couple of weeks has been Elizabeth Warren pretty much (hopefully) locking up her election.  It's just really weird and borderline offensive to have a Republican himbo in Teddy's seat.

Oh my fucking god dude I live where she's running. There's an ad for the incumbent literally every break on TV here and I can't browse the web for five minutes without seeing his face. Cannot wait to vote that guy out. NOT MY SENATOR

[Barry Egan]

From XBL:

Which candidate is more truthful about his policies?

Male:

Barack Obama - 42.4%
Mitt Romney - 52.3%
Not sure - 5.3%

Female:

Barack Obama - 61.6%
Mitt Romney - 35.5%
Not sure - 2.9%

 

Good thing halo comes out on election day I guess.

[Oblivion]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/health/us-to-sponsor-health-insurance-plans-nationwide.html

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration will soon take on a new role as the sponsor of at least two nationwide health insurance plans to be operated under contract with the federal government and offered to consumers in every state.

....

The national plans will compete directly with other private insurers and may have some significant advantages, including a federal seal of approval. Premiums and benefits for the multistate insurance plans will be negotiated by the United States Office of Personnel Management, the agency that arranges health benefits for federal employees.

...

Robert E. Moffit, a senior fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said he worried that “the nationwide health plans, operating under terms and conditions set by the federal government, will become the robust public option that liberals always wanted.”

waaaahhh?!  This seems kind of too good to be true.  Can someone smarter than me explain why this actually is not as awesome as it sounds? (this question excludes all Libertarian explanations)

Just wait til the genocide provision kicks in in 2015 and all the Tea Partiers'll go "told you soooooooooooooooooooooooooo!"

[TakingBackSunday]

yeah can someone explain this health care thing for me?  is this being viewed as a good thing or bad thing?

[Himu]

um

the healthcare thing

holy shit

[Phoenix Dark]

yeah can someone explain this health care thing for me?  is this being viewed as a good thing or bad thing?

Looks like it's actually apart of the deal that killed the actual public option

The Congressional Budget Office (analysis; blog summary) estimates that Reid's "manager's amendment" (text, brief summary) would add $2 billion in budget savings to the $130 billion it earlier projected over a 10-year period. (This estimate does not take into account the cost of other amendments added to the bill.) CBO says the manager's amendment's effect on average premiums should be "quite similar" to what it calculated earlier—i.e., virtually no impact on employer-provided health insurance and an increase in the cost of nongroup policies that's more than offset by new government subsidies for the majority of purchasers. The White House is pleased.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/prescriptions/2009/12/sixty.html

Pretty ironic that we're going crazy over something that ultimately killed the public option. I think the shocker is that this seems a lot more robust than what was reported on at the time in 2010. It seems like a smaller version of the public option, aimed at multiple states. No wonder the administration has seemingly kept quiet about it.

I can't wait for this to go into effect, alongside the exchanges. This may not be The public option, but it will certainly offer a noteworthy level of competition to private insurances and has the potential to lower premiums.

[ToxicAdam]

Why do people want to make voting easier again?

In a recent YouGov poll, I asked participants about their views on abortion policy and what position they thought Obama, Romney, the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party took on abortion. Only about 60% of respondents knew that Obama and the Democrats supported more pro-choice policies than Romney and Republicans. Given that the parties have had clear and long-standing positions on this issue, it's astonishing that 40% of Americans don't know this basic fact (other surveys find even higher levels of ignorance).

http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/10/24/informed-voters-should-see-psychiatrists/

[Stoney Mason]

Not related to Toxic Adam's post but the scare tactics and the cut down on the voting days in Florida are some of the truly disgusting political acts in my lifetime. Also I took my nephew to register to vote about a week or two before the deadline and he still hasn't gotten his voter stuff yet so there is a chance he may not be able to vote. Very annoying. That's more a bureaucratic foul up but still I find the whole thing pretty disgusting.

[Phoenix Dark]

Now the Beltway media has joined the anti Nate Silver game
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/10/nate-silver-romney-clearly-could-still-win-147618.html
 

I think Ezra Klein hit the nail on the head:

Ezra Klein ‏@ezraklein
A subtext of journalistic resentment of Silver is that if punditry is based in numbers, journalists who don't know numbers are less valuable

[TakingBackSunday]

oh just fuck the media, good christ.  the ONE VOICE OF HONESTY in this election (silver) is getting tarnished in the media because of an awful "bububu DEAD HEAT" narrative.

I can't wait until he is inevitably correct by being only one state off again.  dude's gonna get such a great reach-around that night

[Great Rumbler]

"Some in the media are suggesting that Nate Silver is overrated."

[recursivelyenumerable]

Now the Beltway media has joined the anti Nate Silver game
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/10/nate-silver-romney-clearly-could-still-win-147618.html
 

"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way.

uhhhhh 73% does in fact mean it could go either way. if it couldn't that would be 100%

[Phoenix Dark]

It's worth noting that Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium has Obama's chances around 92-97%, and he was more accurate than Silver in 2008 and 2010; he also called 2004 correctly.

We're just seeing a lot of journalists who don't understand how stats work. And I think it backs up my point that we'll never see the media focus on aggregates because their stability kills the "breaking news" hook most television news channels rely on.

[Mandark]

"Romney, clearly could still win."

"Boy, if Romney wins your credibility will be shot!"

[TakingBackSunday]

conserva-friend on facebook:

So no one thinks Nate Silver is likely being bashed because his formula is the only one that shows Barack winning the popular vote as of right now? I mean Real Clear Politics, Gallup, and Rassmussen all have Mitt ahead, doesn't that seem a bit unusual?

HERP.  HE'S NOT A POLLSTER

[Phoenix Dark]

If Obama wins there are gonna be a lot of people saying "bubububu national polls! horse race!" Chalk this up as another case of the media not actually doing any reporting

of course, there will plenty of voter fraud charges too. Just watch

[TakingBackSunday]

when obama wins and husted is labeled anything other than a complete fuckass, I'll be enraged.  if the right somewhere tries to look at him and say "see!  that's what we need to do herr durr..." ugh.

[Joe Molotov]

They'll just decide they need to get an earlier start on voter discrimination laws next time.

[Human Snorenado]

If Obama wins there are gonna be a lot of people saying "bubububu national polls! horse race!" Chalk this up as another case of the media not actually doing any reporting

of course, there will plenty of voter fraud charges too. Just watch

Wonder what will be this cycle's ACORN and New Black Panther party.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

If Obama wins there are gonna be a lot of people saying "bubububu national polls! horse race!" Chalk this up as another case of the media not actually doing any reporting

of course, there will plenty of voter fraud charges too. Just watch

Wonder what will be this cycle's ACORN and New Black Panther party.

I'm guessing "black churches." What's wrong with just a plain-old "church"?

[Human Snorenado]

If Obama wins there are gonna be a lot of people saying "bubububu national polls! horse race!" Chalk this up as another case of the media not actually doing any reporting

of course, there will plenty of voter fraud charges too. Just watch

Wonder what will be this cycle's ACORN and New Black Panther party.

I'm guessing "black churches." What's wrong with just a plain-old "church"?

I mean, why'd we bother to end segregation if those people aren't going to integrate churches? 

[Howard Alan Treesong]

It's illegal for churches to stump for a candidate and keep their tax-free status... but I think we both know who "black" churches support.

[Joe Molotov]

Black people are the real racists.

[Mr. Gundam]

It's worth noting that Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium has Obama's chances around 92-97%, and he was more accurate than Silver in 2008 and 2010; he also called 2004 correctly.

We're just seeing a lot of journalists who don't understand how stats work. And I think it backs up my point that we'll never see the media focus on aggregates because their stability kills the "breaking news" hook most television news channels rely on.

"Herp derp stats are hard" is the new slogan of media outlets.

[Phoenix Dark]

If Obama wins there are gonna be a lot of people saying "bubububu national polls! horse race!" Chalk this up as another case of the media not actually doing any reporting

of course, there will plenty of voter fraud charges too. Just watch

Wonder what will be this cycle's ACORN and New Black Panther party.

I'm guessing "black churches." What's wrong with just a plain-old "church"?

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-10-28/news/fl-church-vote-20121028_1_hundreds-march-vote-polls

yup

[Stoney Mason]

I live in Florida and despite early voting its likely the state will tip over to the Republican side this year anyway unfortunately.

So I doubt this will arise although it doesn't really matter. Republicans in the state will do whatever it takes to limit early in person voting or make the hassle to do it more in the future.

Here are the early voting totals in my county which is a pretty important Bellwether county for the state and the nation to a degree. Since 1960 its voted for the eventual winner in every election except for the 92 Clinton win.

http://www.voterfocus.com/hosting/hillsborough/ew_pages/Whats%20New/English/Early%20Voting%20Totals/2012%20General%20Election/Monday-%20October%2029,%202012.pdf

[Himu]

Stoney I thought you said you moved to a civilized state? Why Florida? WHY

[Stoney Mason]

I lived in Cali for a number of years but yeah I live in Florida now to be closer to family. It is what it is. Florida kinda sucks but its about the only Southern state I could remotely tolerate living in, in a relative sense.

[Himu]

What about Tejas?

[Stoney Mason]

What about Tejas?

I know there are pockets of liberal areas in Texas like Austin and this is probably completely unfair since I know people also have certain views on how backwards Florida is but I just have an awful image of Texas. All I think of is lots of guns and the state doing crazy batshit stuff at the state level. I've never been to Texas outside of driving through it so that's a characterization based on ignorance but I honestly don't have a really favorable opinion of the state. If I wasn't living in Florida because of family the only real places I would want to live in the us are Cali or the state of Washington or something. The north is fairly liberal also but I wouldn't want to live in the New England area although its a fun place to visit.

[Himu]

Texas is pretty liberal in the cities. Though, still kind of backwards in some areas (like city development) compared to the best of America's cities. Still, Austin, Dallas, and  Houston are pretty good. As is San Anton. Houston has an elected gay mayor. The image of Texas mostly comes from seedy pocket areas in west and south Texas.

[Great Rumbler]

Texas cities are all pretty nice, particularly downtown. Dallas has several art museums and an aquarium, San Antonio has the Alamo and the river walk, Austin has tons of nightclubs and live music venues, Ft. Worth has the zoo and botanic gardens, and Houston has...well...an industrial wasteland.

Actually, I'm sure Houston is a perfectly nice city, I've just never been there before.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Waco has the Dr. Pepper Museum

[close]

[Phoenix Dark]

Some Florida numbers

The Department of State said as of Monday morning, nearly 1.4 million people had cast absentee ballots and more than 500,000 people cast ballots in person during the early voting period that began Saturday.

The vote is nearly evenly split by party, with 784,444 ballots cast by Democrats and 774,304 ballots cast by Republicans. More than 307,000 ballots have been cast by voters who don't belong to either major party.

The total represents nearly 16 percent of Florida's 11.9 million voters.

Party     Early Vote     %
DEM   251,110   49%
REP   177,958   35%
IND   84,121   16%
TOTAL   513,189

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/29/1152251/-Today-in-early-voting-FL-IA-NV-NC-and-PA?showAll=yes

Romney will probably win Florida imo, but if Hispanics come out in force Obama will have a shot. Dems have erased the huge absentee vote lead republicans had in 2008

[ToxicAdam]

Pissing away tax dollars:

 

2. Of the 12.4 million total arrests last year, drug arrests (1,531,251) represented about one out of every eight arrests, or 12.34% of the total.

3. Of the 1.53 million drug arrests last year, 87.5% (1.34 million) were for possession and only 12.5% (191,000) were for the sale or manufacturing of drugs.

4. Nearly half of all drug arrests (49.5% or 758,000 arrests) were for possessing or selling weed, which grows naturally in almost all U.S. states.  That means that police arrested somebody last year every 42 seconds for weed charges, and most of those arrests (87.5%) were for possessing weed.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/persons-arrested/persons-arrested

[Mandark]

You edit that?  Cause the original blog post keeps referring to marijuana as "weeds," plural, which I find inexplicably funny.

[Great Rumbler]

You edit that?  Cause the original blog post keeps referring to marijuana as "weeds," plural, which I find inexplicably funny.

Dandelion and foxtail are hardcore, man.

[ToxicAdam]

You edit that?  Cause the original blog post keeps referring to marijuana as "weeds," plural, which I find inexplicably funny.

Yea, I didn't want to distract from the information. It's a peculiar way to phrase it. Maybe he is including mushrooms/etc along with it?

[Mandark]

Another possible explanation:

[Joe Molotov]

[Brehvolution]

Did ethereal douchebag Pat Robertson really say that the hurricane is god's judgement for Obama leading in the polls?

[Joe Molotov]

Nah, I'm pretty sure it's still the gays that are causing it.