Author Topic: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics  (Read 1856193 times)

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TakingBackSunday

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20820 on: November 05, 2012, 12:37:49 AM »
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bachikarn

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20822 on: November 05, 2012, 01:32:40 AM »
It amuses me that Nate Silver gets so much hate for his 85% prediction, but Sam Wang is predicting a 99% chance of Barry winning.

Oblivion

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20823 on: November 05, 2012, 02:55:01 AM »
It amuses me that Nate Silver gets so much hate for his 85% prediction, but Sam Wang is predicting a 99% chance of Barry winning.

Probably cause no one knows who Sam Wang is.

Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20824 on: November 05, 2012, 09:09:30 AM »
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ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20825 on: November 05, 2012, 10:04:22 AM »
Quote
If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn't conservative enough I'm going to go nuts. We're not losing 95% of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we're not being hard-ass enough."

-- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC),


Quote
if final polls from The Economist/YouGov are correct, President Obama will win 303 electoral votes.

The final Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest Obama will win 294 electoral votes.

The final Public Policy Polling surveys point to an Obama landslide of 332 electoral votes

PPP could be made to look pretty foolish in a few days.

drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20826 on: November 05, 2012, 10:28:05 AM »
came to the conclusion to vote for good ole Mitt last night at like 3 AM :spin

MrAngryFace

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20827 on: November 05, 2012, 10:50:32 AM »
I may align with Jill Stein on issues, but running around getting arrested doesn't strike me as behavior id want from someone who wants to lead an entire country down paths you potentially don't get to come back from. Honestly I just hate polarized individuals thinking its totally an ok way to be. It's a horrible, lazy way to be.
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Mupepe

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20828 on: November 05, 2012, 11:00:58 AM »
I may align with Jill Stein on issues, but running around getting arrested doesn't strike me as behavior id want from someone who wants to lead an entire country down paths you potentially don't get to come back from. Honestly I just hate polarized individuals thinking its totally an ok way to be. It's a horrible, lazy way to be.
Agreed.  The whole arrest debacle with her turned me off.  It reminded me of the dramatic antics of tea partiers and libertarians.  I'd like my Presidential candidate to stay composed and display rational actions.

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20829 on: November 05, 2012, 11:02:45 AM »
I could never vote for a party where Cynthia McKinney was your nominee just 4 years ago. At least Jill Stein is a step in a more coherent selection.


Mupepe

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20830 on: November 05, 2012, 11:08:23 AM »
I wouldn't consider it so much a vote for the Green Party as a vote for the candidate.  Stein, McKinney or anyone else should they ever be elected (lol) would still be beholden to the mainstream.  McKinney never had a chance anyways.  Truthers would get slaughtered in general elections lulz. 

Edit: Not that Jilly Stein or any third party has any legitimate chance. So this is a moot discussion anyways. 

drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20831 on: November 05, 2012, 11:08:36 AM »
gary johnson's twitter is full of references to him being a wasted vote, at one point he says he doesn't care what happens - maximum trollface for this niqa

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20832 on: November 05, 2012, 11:27:39 AM »
It amuses me that Nate Silver gets so much hate for his 85% prediction, but Sam Wang is predicting a 99% chance of Barry winning.

Probably cause no one knows who Sam Wang is.

He missed the social media bus whereas Silver jumped on pretty quickly. Both Silver and Wang were on NPR a couple weeks ago discussing the election and nearly every listener question was for Silver ha. Never mind that Wang was more accurate in 2008, only missing one electoral vote, and he also called 2004 correctly.
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Stoney Mason

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20833 on: November 05, 2012, 11:29:05 AM »
Quote
if final polls from The Economist/YouGov are correct, President Obama will win 303 electoral votes.

The final Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest Obama will win 294 electoral votes.

The final Public Policy Polling surveys point to an Obama landslide of 332 electoral votes

PPP could be made to look pretty foolish in a few days.

I haven't really had any predictions for this election. This is seemingly one of the closer elections of my lifetime relatively speaking on the face of it. I'd rather be Obama going into the final day than Romney but it wouldn't utterly shock me if Romney won.

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20834 on: November 05, 2012, 11:34:44 AM »
Your vote should never be based on whether they 'have a chance'. It should be based on whether you agree/respect them and agree/respect the party they represent. People that peddle that 'wasting your vote' nonsense are just party zombies.

The real problem with third parties is even if there were a 'golden child' that could have a legitimate chance, the two parties would do all they could to undermine/usurp their position/power once they reached office. There would be little reward for them to actually legitimize this third option.  Maybe I'm just being too cynical ...

So, as other have observed, it would have to come from the bottom up .. rather than the top down. Good luck with that.


I'd rather be Obama going into the final day than Romney but it wouldn't utterly shock me if Romney won.

It would shock me if Romney won. It would legitimize 'the silent majority' in a HUGE way. I just don't think Obama is going to win in the landslide that PPP seems to be indicating.


« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 11:38:07 AM by ToxicAdam »

MrAngryFace

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20835 on: November 05, 2012, 11:42:44 AM »
I dunno if I entirely agree with that- voting by principle in a system that doesn't allow that vote to count for a multitude of reasons...and ultimately at the end of the day there is a better choice than Romney- and if I have a choice i'll cast the vote that has the greater chance of producing an outcome I can live with.

Where we are socially, gays being allowed to get married in certain states etc is the result of years and years of the needle being nudged via candidates that don't represent the ideal in its ENTIRETY, but do at least represent it to a degree while still remaining viable within a system that will probably not change unless the voters get off their butt and do more than throw votes at a third party that is largely ignored. Plus as much as I agree that drastic sweeping changes will not occur as a result of Romney getting elected- the same could be said of someone like Jill Stein- so what's the gain by giving her my vote if it means I toss aside the chance of someone winning who will at the very LEAST continue pushing that needle towards the ideal I align with.
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Steve Contra

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20836 on: November 05, 2012, 11:50:52 AM »
What odds are we giving that if Obama wins the Republicans will try and impeach him for Benghazi before January?  I'm saying 5-4.
vin

Stoney Mason

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20837 on: November 05, 2012, 11:51:29 AM »
In primaries I vote for the person. In general election I always vote for party. If the party candidate happens to be so objectionable to me that I can't vote for him then I don't vote at all for that particular office. I'm not saying that's how others should do it but that's how I do it. That being said I have voted for Dems I knew had no chance simply because I liked them.

I see almost no circumstance of where I would vote for a third party candidate with the way our political system is structured. It is indeed a wasted voted imo but people are free to waste their votes.


Steve Contra

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20838 on: November 05, 2012, 11:53:04 AM »
The thing about voting for third parties is that most people I know who do vote for a third party don't do shit politically the rest of the time.  They just get mad every few years and vote Green, complain, and that's it.  Simply voting isn't really doing anything.
vin

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20839 on: November 05, 2012, 11:55:01 AM »
What odds are we giving that if Obama wins the Republicans will try and impeach him for Benghazi before January?  I'm saying 5-4.

Before January? 10-to-1
But by Summer 2013? 1-to-1

I said that to T yesterday - 9/11 gets Bush re-elected, but Benghazi will get Obama impeached. Because it's not a 2nd Democratic term without impeachment proceedings!

It's too bad the Republicans are gonna be butthurt about Sandy for the next 50 years, when the polls, momentum, and reality never gave Romney much of a chance even BEFORE Obama did the same thing he's been doing for the past four years (responding to things competently and presidentially)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/nov-4-did-hurricane-sandy-blow-romney-off-course/

« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 11:57:17 AM by Howard Alan Treesong »
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ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20840 on: November 05, 2012, 11:55:17 AM »
Changes in social issues have almost all come from the state and local level. The national parties pay them lip service but do very little to actually enact change. If you think about the amount of lip service they have paid (gay rights, anti-abortion, etc) to these groups over the decades versus the actual legislation they have passed, it is very small.

The big changes usually have come at the state level through legislation or ballot initiatives.

Stoney Mason

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20841 on: November 05, 2012, 11:58:19 AM »
The thing about voting for third parties is that most people I know who do vote for a third party don't do shit politically the rest of the time.  They just get mad every few years and vote Green, complain, and that's it.  Simply voting isn't really doing anything.


To be fair I think most people who vote for the two major parties are the same way but I hear you. For a third party to be truly viable you would have to go way above and beyond the call to actually have people consider them relevant. It's a stereotype but a lot of people who vote third party come off in that hipster manner of being so above it all which annoys a lot of people.

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20842 on: November 05, 2012, 12:03:44 PM »
Quote
It's a stereotype but a lot of people who vote third party come off in that hipster manner

I think you're being a little too quick to catergorize third party voters in such a simple way. I completely understand those that voted for Nadar in 2000 as opposed to Al Gore. Nadar is actually a genuine reformer with a remarkable career and Gore was just another rich kid, bore, corporate shill.

I understand people that would vote third party this year also. Obama is probably the furthest right the Democrats have ever elected and Mitt Romney has no real libertarian cred to speak of.


Great Rumbler

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20843 on: November 05, 2012, 12:06:52 PM »
What odds are we giving that if Obama wins the Republicans will try and impeach him for Benghazi before January?  I'm saying 5-4.

5-4, huh? Sounds like the conservative split in the Supreme Court. :smug
dog

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20844 on: November 05, 2012, 12:07:31 PM »
Quote
It's a stereotype but a lot of people who vote third party come off in that hipster manner

I think you're being a little too quick to catergorize third party voters in such a simple way. I completely understand those that voted for Nadar in 2000 as opposed to Al Gore. Nadar is actually a genuine reformer with a remarkable career and Gore was just another rich kid, bore, corporate shill.

I understand people that would vote third party this year also. Obama is probably the furthest right the Democrats have ever elected and Mitt Romney has no real libertarian cred to speak of.

I agree - I voted Nader in 2000 out of hipster spite and being in a non-swing state. HOWEVER, if there's one thing 2000 should have taught us, it's put paid to the argument that "Republicrats" are all the same, in the pocket of corporate interests, etc. There's no denying they overlap more than the political theater would have you believe - but it's also impossible to take seriously the argument that a 2000-2008 Gore presidency would have responded to 9/11 the same way, gotten us mired in multiple wars in the Middle East, turned to torture so quickly and unrepentantly, etc.

Feel free to vote your conscience, but also understand the actual consequences of your vote in the Electoral Vote-based American political system. That's all I ask.
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Great Rumbler

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20845 on: November 05, 2012, 12:09:37 PM »
It's too bad the Republicans are gonna be butthurt about Sandy for the next 50 years, when the polls, momentum, and reality never gave Romney much of a chance even BEFORE Obama did the same thing he's been doing for the past four years (responding to things competently and presidentially)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/nov-4-did-hurricane-sandy-blow-romney-off-course/

Krugman had a great article about that:

Like Mr. Clinton, President Obama restored FEMA’s professionalism, effectiveness, and reputation. But would Mitt Romney destroy the agency again? Yes, he would. As everyone now knows — despite the Romney campaign’s efforts to Etch A Sketch the issue away — during the primary Mr. Romney used language almost identical to Mr. Allbaugh’s, declaring that disaster relief should be turned back to the states and to the private sector.
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Stoney Mason

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20846 on: November 05, 2012, 12:17:27 PM »
Quote
It's a stereotype but a lot of people who vote third party come off in that hipster manner

I think you're being a little too quick to catergorize third party voters in such a simple way. I completely understand those that voted for Nadar in 2000 as opposed to Al Gore. Nadar is actually a genuine reformer with a remarkable career and Gore was just another rich kid, bore, corporate shill.

I understand people that would vote third party this year also. Obama is probably the furthest right the Democrats have ever elected and Mitt Romney has no real libertarian cred to speak of.

I'm more just talking shit. In the sense that you run into your wacky friend who votes third party or people in the internet. Of course there are dedicated members who belong to third parties who want to change America. Hell politically I'm more in line with Noam Chomsky than regular democrats. That being said I'm also not crazy. I fully understand that normal regular people don't vote for Noam Chomsky's or Rush Limbaugh's. And the problem third parties have is both a structural one because of the nature of our political system and often a basic failing simply on rhetoric where the argument is sometimes over simplified to voting for somebody utterly inexperienced just because that's better than the establishment alternatives.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 12:21:36 PM by Stoney Mason »

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20847 on: November 05, 2012, 12:19:50 PM »
Romney has also never, EVER, not once, not even during his best day of polling after the first debate, been ahead in EVs. And Obama's positive momentum - slow, but steady - returned about a week later. This is not a tossup, or too close to call - this is a remarkably stable election where Obama never dipped below the critical threshold once.
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Mupepe

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20848 on: November 05, 2012, 12:20:50 PM »
Your vote should never be based on whether they 'have a chance'. It should be based on whether you agree/respect them and agree/respect the party they represent. People that peddle that 'wasting your vote' nonsense are just party zombies.

The real problem with third parties is even if there were a 'golden child' that could have a legitimate chance, the two parties would do all they could to undermine/usurp their position/power once they reached office. There would be little reward for them to actually legitimize this third option.  Maybe I'm just being too cynical ...

So, as other have observed, it would have to come from the bottom up .. rather than the top down. Good luck with that.

Not necessarily.  If it's a close election and you know it's not going to matter AND (especially this one too) you live in a swing state, not voting for you ideal candidate is just fine.  There is very real risk sometimes.  For example, I live in Texas so I might throw my vote to Jill Stein or whoever.  But if I lived in Ohio I would suck it up and play the logical game of voting for the person that fits closest to my ideals.  It's the game of essentially voting against the other guy.  For some that's a very real priority that doesn't necessarily make them a party zombie.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 12:23:45 PM by Mupepe »

Great Rumbler

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20849 on: November 05, 2012, 12:23:56 PM »
Romney has also never, EVER, not once, not even during his best day of polling after the first debate, been ahead in EVs. And Obama's positive momentum - slow, but steady - returned about a week later. This is not a tossup, or too close to call - this is a remarkably stable election where Obama never dipped below the critical threshold once.

Yeah, this wasn't a sharp jump up for Obama, rather it's been a slow and steady climb back to where he was right before the first debate. There's a ton of factors involved there, one of them being that even the slightest amount of digging will reveal that Romney is not a likable person in the slightest. I think the first debate surprised a lot of people initially, because it gave them the impression that Romney was actually a respectable candidate.
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Don Flamenco

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20850 on: November 05, 2012, 12:29:58 PM »
I feel like the "it's soooo close" narrative is purely the media wanting to keep its viewer ratings up.  :lol


Quote
It's a stereotype but a lot of people who vote third party come off in that hipster manner

I think you're being a little too quick to catergorize third party voters in such a simple way. I completely understand those that voted for Nadar in 2000 as opposed to Al Gore. Nadar is actually a genuine reformer with a remarkable career and Gore was just another rich kid, bore, corporate shill.

I understand people that would vote third party this year also. Obama is probably the furthest right the Democrats have ever elected and Mitt Romney has no real libertarian cred to speak of.

I'm more just talking shit. In the sense that you run into your wacky friend who votes third party or people in the internet. Of course there are dedicated members who belong to third parties who want to change America. Hell politically I'm more in line with Noam Chomsky than regular democrats. That being said I'm also not crazy. I fully understand that normal regular people don't vote for Noam Chomsky's or Rush Limbaugh's. And the problem third parties have is both a structural one because of the nature of our political system and often a basic failing simply on rhetoric where the argument is sometimes over simplified to voting for somebody utterly inexperienced just because that's better than the establishment alternatives.


It was understandable to vote for Nader in 2000, but still, in light of what happened for 8 years after that, I feel burned and will never vote Green again.  I can also admit a bit of idealism/social insecurity behind my vote, since I was 18 and influenced by the cool people with dreads at my college (hippy, not hipster.)  I really had no idea what I was doing.  Nowadays, I vote Democrat in hopes that they can push back towards the left, closing the gap between them and the green party.  Because right now, the green party still sounds like some radical thing to people.  They need a name-change badly and need to fire their current PR people.   They seem to underestimate appearances in hopes of intelligence winning out...a fatal mistake in U.S. elections. 

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20851 on: November 05, 2012, 12:30:31 PM »
But if I lived in Ohio I would suck it up and play the logical game of voting for the person that fits closest to my ideals.  It's the game of essentially voting against the other guy.  For some that's a very real priority that doesn't necessarily make them a party zombie.

This isn't a school levy issue where 7000 votes are cast. This is a statewide result where 6 million votes are cast (in the case of Ohio).  Even in it's closest year (2004) there was still a spread of 110,000 votes between the two candidates. There is almost no scenario where your vote is crucial in the grand scheme of things.


Mupepe

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20852 on: November 05, 2012, 12:42:23 PM »
But if I lived in Ohio I would suck it up and play the logical game of voting for the person that fits closest to my ideals.  It's the game of essentially voting against the other guy.  For some that's a very real priority that doesn't necessarily make them a party zombie.

This isn't a school levy issue where 7000 votes are cast. This is a statewide result where 6 million votes are cast (in the case of Ohio).  Even in it's closest year (2004) there was still a spread of 110,000 votes between the two candidates. There is almost no scenario where your vote is crucial in the grand scheme of things.
I get what you're saying.  But there are also thousands of people that are having the same conflict.  It does add up.  This is akin to saying "everyone throws their trash out.  My gum wrapper out the car window isn't going to make a difference."  It probably won't but it's part of a collectively larger problem where if enough people say "ah fuck it, it doesn't matter" it actually starts to.  It's the same concept as voting for your candidate to maintain your principles.  Different side of the same coin.

Great Rumbler

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20853 on: November 05, 2012, 12:42:57 PM »
I feel like the "it's soooo close" narrative is purely the media wanting to keep its viewer ratings up.  :lol

Of course it is. Gotta keep viewers watching and both campaigns pumping out those ad dollars.
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Brehvolution

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20854 on: November 05, 2012, 12:45:40 PM »
IMO, that is the driving force behind the hate toward 538.

"Hey! This dude is ruining our credibility ability to sell commercials!"
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MrAngryFace

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20855 on: November 05, 2012, 12:47:53 PM »
The thing about voting for third parties is that most people I know who do vote for a third party don't do shit politically the rest of the time.  They just get mad every few years and vote Green, complain, and that's it.  Simply voting isn't really doing anything.

And really that's fair criticism- I also don't give a shit about politics outside of donations/voting.
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Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20856 on: November 05, 2012, 12:48:55 PM »
I feel like the "it's soooo close" narrative is purely the media wanting to keep its viewer ratings up.  :lol

Of course it is. Gotta keep viewers watching and both campaigns pumping out those ad dollars.

Browsing the conservative blogs today, they all seem to think Romney's got this thing locked down. Every article is about him getting some huge endorsement from a newspaper (lol print media) or leading in some poll. No matter how this election goes, there's gonna be some bitter tears in our near future.
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MrAngryFace

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20857 on: November 05, 2012, 12:49:32 PM »
Romney has also never, EVER, not once, not even during his best day of polling after the first debate, been ahead in EVs. And Obama's positive momentum - slow, but steady - returned about a week later. This is not a tossup, or too close to call - this is a remarkably stable election where Obama never dipped below the critical threshold once.

bobobo that's not the narrative that pushes ratings!!!!!!!!!
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ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20858 on: November 05, 2012, 12:52:41 PM »
Our political elections are so gross, yet so captivating at the same time. It's embarrassing what a spectacle we have made out of them. I'm surprised more people in the world don't scold us for having such a ridiculous, expensive circus every four years. Maybe they are just as captivated by it as we are.




Browsing the conservative blogs today, they all seem to think Romney's got this thing locked down. .

Our HVAC guy is a diehard and he is the same way. A month ago he predicted a landslide and Obama would only win 12-14 states. I didn't want to take the guy's money, so I bet him that if Obama wins, I would buy him a pint of ice cream.

Ice cream makes everyone feel better.

« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 12:56:03 PM by ToxicAdam »

MrAngryFace

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20859 on: November 05, 2012, 12:54:19 PM »
People are absurd- the older I get the more removed I feel from the majority of folks. I'm not saying im too cool to fall for the same mental crap they do- im just saying I do what I can to mitigate its effects.
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ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20860 on: November 05, 2012, 01:07:41 PM »


There's a sad metaphor to be made here ...

« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 01:11:55 PM by ToxicAdam »

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20861 on: November 05, 2012, 01:13:20 PM »
Quote
Actor and outspoken liberal John Cusack is developing a movie about conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, Cusack's production company said Friday.

The working title is "Rush," Cusack's New Crime Productions confirmed, offering no other details.

Hollywood director Betty Thomas, who's set to work on the film, said the production company is putting finishing touches on a script that will star the actor. Production is set for next year, Thomas said.

I don't think people would pay money to see this ...

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20862 on: November 05, 2012, 01:17:46 PM »
The "Silent Majority" is largely a media creation imo. Polling was pretty sparse and bad in 1980, and Carter lost largely due to a bad economy and the Iran situation. The south didn't flip to Reagan because Christians decided to vote - it flipped because they switched from Carter to Reagan, among other reasons.

The bigger story will likely be Hispanic voters. If they come out in force, Obama will win handily. If they come out as expected by polls, Obama will still probably win, just with a smaller margin.

IMO
Obama 290
Romney 248

if Hispanic turnout is as large as Latino Decisions suggests
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/research-firm-says-historic-showing-among-latino-voters

Obama 303
Romney 235

(I don't think Obama will win Florida regardless)
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Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20863 on: November 05, 2012, 01:22:09 PM »
(Image removed from quote.)

There's a sad metaphor to be made here ...

Joe Biden no!
©@©™

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20864 on: November 05, 2012, 01:34:11 PM »
TA talking much rot.

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20865 on: November 05, 2012, 01:36:25 PM »
People that peddle that 'wasting your vote' nonsense are just party zombies.

I think you're being a little too quick to catergorize third party voters in such a simple way.

:teehee

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20866 on: November 05, 2012, 01:54:43 PM »
Pretty weak effort, Mandark. Usually you go and pull a quote from three years prior to 'make your point'.


Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20867 on: November 05, 2012, 03:01:46 PM »
Yes yes yes, the "I'm disappointed" gambit, to remind us all we're arguing on the internet.

But you pivot straight from "only mouthbreathing sheeple say that!" to "hey now, let's respect the nuance of their opinion and not generalize."  You seriously don't see this?  Like, really?



Also, movement on social issues involves a bunch of interaction between the different levels and branches of government.  Jim Crow was local and state, and eventually overridden by federal authority, but only when the other two branches were willing to enforce a years-old SCOTUS ruling.  Lots of women's rights came through the courts, integrating the military was an executive order, abortion is currently constrained by Roe v Wade, accommodations for the disabled are made locally in order to comply with federal standards, etc.  There are issues where you don't see major movement, but that's what you'd expect in a democracy on an issue where opposing sides have roughly equal support in both sheer numbers and motivation, regardless of institutional or party structure.

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20868 on: November 05, 2012, 03:20:58 PM »
Yes yes yes, the "I'm disappointed" gambit, to remind us all we're arguing on the internet.

But you pivot straight from "only mouthbreathing sheeple say that!" to "hey now, let's respect the nuance of their opinion and not generalize."  You seriously don't see this?  Like, really?

You should see the gulf in disparity of the size and scope between the groups. One group is "everyone that votes for a third party" versus random people on the internet that say "you are throwing away your vote".

Why else would someone care how someone votes unless they are party loyalists and are concerned that it could effect their desired outcome? There just doesn't seem to be any other plausible explanation.

That being said, I only gave a few examples of when voting third party made sense. In 2008, it was pretty clear that Obama was the candidate that represented something different ... something better. Unless you were some hardcore libertarian-type.


Quote
Also, movement on social issues involves a bunch of interaction between the different levels and branches of government.  Jim Crow was local and state, and eventually overridden by federal authority, but only when the other two branches were willing to enforce a years-old SCOTUS ruling.  Lots of women's rights came through the courts, integrating the military was an executive order, abortion is currently constrained by Roe v Wade, accommodations for the disabled are made locally in order to comply with federal standards, etc.  There are issues where you don't see major movement, but that's what you'd expect in a democracy on an issue where opposing sides have roughly equal support in both sheer numbers and motivation, regardless of institutional or party structure

It seems like you are just expanding on what I said. Change with social issues bubbles up from the bottom in a numerous amount of ways, but rarely (if ever) comes from the top down. By the time a national party fully embraces changes something it is already politically expedient to do so.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 03:23:13 PM by ToxicAdam »

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20869 on: November 05, 2012, 03:34:15 PM »
Considering how few people vote third parties in the US, the second group is probably larger and more diverse.  And the only reason someone would care how someone else votes is cause they're zombies?  What?  This doesn't apply to people urging support for Stein and Johnson?  It's possible to care about the results of an election for reasons other than slavish tribalism, y'know, and starting a discussion from a presumption of bad faith on the other side isn't going to be terribly productive in most cases.

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20870 on: November 05, 2012, 03:59:11 PM »
It seems like you are just expanding on what I said. Change with social issues bubbles up from the bottom in a numerous amount of ways, but rarely (if ever) comes from the top down. By the time a national party fully embraces changes something it is already politically expedient to do so.

I think we're still a ways apart.

Look, if "change comes from the bottom up" means "national parties react to political pressures, and will only push for a policy when constantly harangued by interest groups within their coalition, and even then only when they're reassured that they won't inadvertently suffer a net loss by pissing off other constituencies," then yeah.  That's how it goes.

But if "change comes from the bottom up" means that most advances on social issues come at the state and local levels, and that this is a result of national-level politicians paying "lip service" to issues they don't care about, I gotta disagree.  The big wins on racial and gender equality came mostly from the federal level, through courts and legislation.  Even on gay rights, the big hope for marriage is a state ballot initiative being struck down by a federal court.

Also, national parties aren't completely separate from state-level activism; it'd be closer to the truth to say they're an aggregate of state-level groups.  Congressfolk are drawn largely from governors, mayors, state legislators, county executives, attorney generals, etc.  They come up through the same networks, answer to the same constituencies, and in many cases are literally the same people.  So it's not like politicians are being genuine when they try to restrict access to abortions on the state level, only to stop caring and start faking once they get to their House seat.  They're just dealing with a larger representative body, where neither their party nor the legislature as a whole is going to be nearly as ideologically or culturally homogeneous, so finding majorities is harder.

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20871 on: November 05, 2012, 05:25:11 PM »
It's like you guys are an old couple now. One Jewish, one Irish
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Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20872 on: November 05, 2012, 05:42:38 PM »
I thought we beat that habit of false equivalencies out of you a few pages ago.

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20873 on: November 05, 2012, 05:49:35 PM »
Two men can't be compared to a couple? Didn't know you were so homophobic, Mandark :smug

Anyway I took the opportunity to get my afro cut today and naturally the barber shop was dominated by election talk (plus some bitter Lions fans as usual). There also was a popular urban radio station on and every commercial break was dominated by Obama ads and legal information about what to do if you're not allowed to vote.

I can now broadly confirm that the general feel in the black community is that "I ain't fucking with that gay marriage, but I'm definitely voting for Barack tomorrow." Note: nobody in the shop called him Obama, it was all first name basis
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TakingBackSunday

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20874 on: November 05, 2012, 05:51:24 PM »
thats cause he's dere nicca
püp

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20875 on: November 05, 2012, 05:55:44 PM »
There was also a bit of a debate about Michelle v Anne, but only one guy sided with Anne. I'm not gonna lie, I like older women and Anne is fine to me...but I gotta go with Michelle.
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Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20876 on: November 05, 2012, 05:57:14 PM »
My white version: was bsing with some friends/ex-coworkers and ballot initiatives came up.  Everyone agreed that there's no reason to vote against gay marriage (still think it won't pass; this was a pretty young group) and nobody had super-strong feelings about the casino bill, which is getting most of the ad time.

One acquaintance said we should vote against Prop 4, the Maryland Dream Act, because it's "something to do with day laborers, giving them all the rights and stuff; all of them over in Langley Park really want it."

It's actually a bill that grants in-state tuition status for undocumented immigrants attending colleges in the UM system.  As long as they attended at least three years of high school here.  And can prove that they or their parents have filed state taxes.  And attend a community college for the first two years.

The guy saying this was a high school dropout.  Not sure if he has his GED.  I changed the subject to how soon the Skins' line is gonna get RG3 seriously injured.

Oblivion

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20877 on: November 05, 2012, 06:06:46 PM »
Quote
Final Reuters/Ipsos state polls: Virginia (O 48, R 46); Ohio (O 50, R 46); Florida (0 47, R 48); Colorado (O 48, R 47)


Stoney Mason

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #20878 on: November 05, 2012, 06:23:59 PM »
Even though the dynamics of this election aren't much different from the last few, it really dawned on me this time how the cultural dynamics are the defining factor now. It's blacks, latinos, and liberal whites versus conservative whites and that's going to be the defining dynamic for quite awhile. Which is kinda depressing especially if you live in the south where it often strictly comes down solely on racial terms.

On a completely unrelated note, my mother is a very proud Obama backer and went into a bakery recently. She often wears an obama hat and tshirt she got after the 08 election. The person behind the counter saw her hat and complimented her on it and asked her where she got it. Before she could answer a different white women behind my mother piped-in and said not to worry about it because he wasn't gonna be president in two weeks anyway. Knowing my mother that situation could have gotten nasty...
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 06:25:49 PM by Stoney Mason »

Oblivion

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