Author Topic: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics  (Read 1855747 times)

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Fifstar

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21480 on: November 08, 2012, 06:06:42 AM »
He means Iran gets the bomb because of the appeasement policy and procceds to bomb Israel, no?
Gulp

Oblivion

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21481 on: November 08, 2012, 06:20:20 AM »
Yeah that's what I was assuming the writer was intending, but as it's written, an explosion in Tel Aviv would be an explosion within Iran, so that seems off.


Fifstar

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21483 on: November 08, 2012, 07:38:38 AM »
You're thinking about Teheran? Because Tel-Aviv sure is in Israel...
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Eric P

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21484 on: November 08, 2012, 07:54:51 AM »
Election 2012: Basically the GOP's Norma Desmond moment.

http://www.examiner.com/article/do-you-still-think-the-polls-were-skewed?cid=db_articles

I AM big.  It's the ELECTIONS that got small.

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Broseidon

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21485 on: November 08, 2012, 08:38:11 AM »
Yeah that's what I was assuming the writer was intending, but as it's written, an explosion in Tel Aviv would be an explosion within Iran, so that seems off.

:derp
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Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21486 on: November 08, 2012, 09:07:21 AM »
I'm pretty sure Tel Aviv is in Afghanistan, and he was talking about Al Qaeda getting a nuke and accidentally blowing themselves up with it.
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Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21487 on: November 08, 2012, 10:12:34 AM »
Dean Chambers finally shows his face:

http://www.examiner.com/article/do-you-still-think-the-polls-were-skewed?cid=db_articles

Quote
On predicting the election results I believed that turnout would be more even and it would result in Mitt Romney getting 275 electoral votes to Obama getting 263. I was off by four states (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) that are worth 69 electoral votes, which is the difference between the 263 I projected and the 332 electoral votes that President Obama won.

I was only off by four states, guys! Conveniently forgetting that he had Romney winning by 350 EVs until the day before the election, when he suddenly and for no apparently reason changed his prediction to a less wrong one, based on, you know, "it just feels right".
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Brehvolution

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21488 on: November 08, 2012, 10:32:27 AM »
So Unskewed polls were the actual skewed polls? Sounds about right. It's really a shame no one will lose any credibility over this.
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Great Rumbler

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« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 10:40:22 AM by Great Rumbler »
dog

Brehvolution

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21490 on: November 08, 2012, 10:42:20 AM »
:bow
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ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21491 on: November 08, 2012, 10:48:14 AM »
So Unskewed polls were the actual skewed polls? Sounds about right. It's really a shame no one will lose any credibility over this.

All the polls are skewed. They just make educated guesses on what the turnout will look like and go from there. Those that predicted a 2010-like turnout were off and those that used the 2008 model were right.

Conventional wisdom going into this election was that Obama wasn't going to see the same kind of turnout he saw in 2008 (especially from minorities and the youth). Even among partisan supporters.

Brehvolution

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21492 on: November 08, 2012, 10:57:52 AM »
Sure, but "Unskewed" polls only became a thing because 538 didn't show a Romney victory. "Unskewed" showed the truth "without the liberal bias" and for the umpteenth time they got it so very wrong.
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ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21493 on: November 08, 2012, 11:11:17 AM »
You're just saying what I am saying. Using a 2008 model would in fact be a 'liberal bias', whereas using a 2010 model would be the opposite. If you were a partisan Republican, it's not too much of a stretch to understand why they would think 2010 was the beginning of a trend and not just an aberration.

Barry Egan

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21494 on: November 08, 2012, 11:29:04 AM »
So Unskewed polls were the actual skewed polls? Sounds about right. It's really a shame no one will lose any credibility over this.

All the polls are skewed. They just make educated guesses on what the turnout will look like and go from there. Those that predicted a 2010-like turnout were off and those that used the 2008 model were right.

Actually, this is completely wrong.  Polling outfits do not calibrate their party ID and go from there, they ask the people they're surveying what their party ID is and then report the answer.  they were consistently getting between D +6 and D +8 and whatdoyaknow!...

Unskewers saw those numbers and refused to believe them, so they rejiggered the party ID to match their own wishful thinking.  Any statiscian who operates that way is a total sham.  The point is to make predictions after you get results, not beforehand.

Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21495 on: November 08, 2012, 11:32:14 AM »
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Brehvolution

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Steve Contra

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21497 on: November 08, 2012, 11:42:35 AM »
vin

Brehvolution

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21498 on: November 08, 2012, 11:45:46 AM »
What am I missing?
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Steve Contra

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21499 on: November 08, 2012, 11:49:17 AM »
Damn, dunno what happened to it.  It was a mad white woman.

The thing I keep hearing from my conservative friends is how Romney is this magic turnaround artist, who can make anything work, but then when I ask why he couldn't make a campaign work after 8 years, it's all "that's different".
vin

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21500 on: November 08, 2012, 11:54:27 AM »
Damn, dunno what happened to it.  It was a mad white woman.

The thing I keep hearing from my conservative friends is how Romney is this magic turnaround artist, who can make anything work, but then when I ask why he couldn't make a campaign work after 8 years, it's all "that's different".

So ... you're saying politics are not the same as running a business? And here I thought we all lived in America, Inc.
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Steve Contra

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21501 on: November 08, 2012, 11:57:06 AM »
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266283107014025216

I also think most of my conservative friends have no idea what private equity even is.
vin

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21502 on: November 08, 2012, 11:57:14 AM »
Quote from: Barry Egan link=topic=28125.msg1580427#msg1580427
  Polling outfits do not calibrate their party ID and go from there, they ask the people they're surveying what their party ID is and then report the answer.  they were consistently getting between D +6 and D +8 and whatdoyaknow!

I suppose you are right, but if a polling outfit got a result of +5 R in Michigan, would they just run the results? No, they would likely throw that out and try again. There is a baseline (of expectation) they are running on based on past history.

Dickie Dee

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21503 on: November 08, 2012, 12:06:29 PM »
Depends. They might scrutinize the methodology behind those numbers more closely, but being more skeptical of one of their own polls that appears to be an outlier is different than putting a thumb on the scales
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Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21504 on: November 08, 2012, 01:02:01 PM »
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266283107014025216

I also think most of my conservative friends have no idea what private equity even is.

He seems a bit upset at Brian Williams.
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Yeti

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21505 on: November 08, 2012, 01:06:43 PM »


spoiler (click to show/hide)
changed from this:
[close]
WDW

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21506 on: November 08, 2012, 01:57:09 PM »
Quote from: Barry Egan link=topic=28125.msg1580427#msg1580427
  Polling outfits do not calibrate their party ID and go from there, they ask the people they're surveying what their party ID is and then report the answer.  they were consistently getting between D +6 and D +8 and whatdoyaknow!

I suppose you are right, but if a polling outfit got a result of +5 R in Michigan, would they just run the results? No, they would likely throw that out and try again. There is a baseline (of expectation) they are running on based on past history.

I'm not an expert on survey science, but I'm pretty sure that "throwing out" a poll because it gives you an unexpected result is bad science and bad ethics.  You'd publish and include the caveat that you think there's a good chance you botched it somehow.

And in any case, the baseline expectation was being set by other polls.  When the vast majority of your polls are showing something and it largely conforms to the results of different pollsters, unless there's something in the data that shows a statistical bias (certain gender/ethnicity/locality being significantly over- or undersampled compared to its actual representation), the unbiased thing is to conclude that the polls are probably approaching the truth.  Chambers et al were using their own intuition, then going back and bending the data towards that, rather than vice versa.


edit: I get what you're saying and it woulda been reasonable for Republicans to expect a 2010 turnout and Democrats to expect a 2008 turnout if there were a small amount of data available leading up to the election.  But there was a ton of data and I think it's pretty clear now that aggregated poll results leading up to an election is a lot more predictive than wishful thinking and gut feelings on enthusiasm.

See also:
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 02:00:02 PM by Mandark »

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21507 on: November 08, 2012, 01:59:19 PM »
Quote from: Barry Egan link=topic=28125.msg1580427#msg1580427
  Polling outfits do not calibrate their party ID and go from there, they ask the people they're surveying what their party ID is and then report the answer.  they were consistently getting between D +6 and D +8 and whatdoyaknow!

I suppose you are right, but if a polling outfit got a result of +5 R in Michigan, would they just run the results? No, they would likely throw that out and try again. There is a baseline (of expectation) they are running on based on past history.

I'm not an expert on survey science, but I'm pretty sure that "throwing out" a poll because it gives you an unexpected result is bad science and bad ethics.  You'd publish and include the caveat that you think there's a good chance you botched it somehow.

And in any case, the baseline expectation was being set by other polls.  When the vast majority of your polls are showing something and it largely conforms to the results of different pollsters, unless there's something in the data that shows a statistical bias (certain gender/ethnicity/locality being significantly over- or undersampled compared to its actual representation), the unbiased thing is to conclude that the polls are probably approaching the truth.  Chambers et al were using their own intuition, then going back and bending the data towards that, rather than vice versa.

Creationist Polling?
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Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21508 on: November 08, 2012, 02:01:08 PM »
Intelligent design is just unskewed biology.

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21509 on: November 08, 2012, 02:04:12 PM »
Unskewing just seems like another method of denying science/reality with the "not every expert believes x." See: evolution, global warming, supply siders
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Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21510 on: November 08, 2012, 02:16:33 PM »
Intelligent design: unskewed biology!
Global warming denial: unskewed climatology!
Expansionary austerity: unskewed macroeconomics!
Fox News: unskewed journalism!
Anti-vaccination: unskewed epidemiology!
Civil War revisionism: unskewed historiography!
Paul Ryan's budget: unskewed arithmetic!

Finally, America will be straightened out!

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21511 on: November 08, 2012, 02:17:46 PM »
Intelligent design: unskewed biology!
Global warming denial: unskewed climatology!
Expansionary austerity: unskewed macroeconomics!
Fox News: unskewed journalism!
Anti-vaccination: unskewed epidemiology!
Civil War revisionism: unskewed historiography!
Paul Ryan's budget: unskewed arithmetic!

Finally, America will be straightened out!

Paul Ryan's budget should be "unskewed economics" but otherwise A++ meme
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drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21512 on: November 08, 2012, 02:19:06 PM »
http://news.yahoo.com/u-n-celebrates-obama-election-pushing-global-gun-210900435.html

well, looks like they're trying for this shit again :sigh

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21513 on: November 08, 2012, 02:21:18 PM »
Obama let you guys carry guns in national parks and you still act like he's taking your guns away?  ::)

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Van Cruncheon

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21514 on: November 08, 2012, 02:22:53 PM »
heterosexuality: unskewed gay!
duc

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21515 on: November 08, 2012, 02:23:48 PM »
white supremacy: unskewed demographic shift
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drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21516 on: November 08, 2012, 02:24:35 PM »
Obama let you guys carry guns in national parks and you still act like he's taking your guns away?  ::)

my post had nothing to do with Obama, and yet you're acting like I'm claiming that he's trying to take MAH GUNZ away?

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21517 on: November 08, 2012, 02:26:15 PM »
Obama let you guys carry guns in national parks and you still act like he's taking your guns away?  ::)

my post had nothing to do with Obama, and yet you're acting like I'm claiming that he's trying to take MAH GUNZ away?

Yeah, it's not like Obama's name was in the headline, lead sentence, or url of the link.

Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21518 on: November 08, 2012, 02:27:17 PM »
Obama let you guys carry guns in national parks and you still act like he's taking your guns away?  ::)

my post had nothing to do with Obama, and yet you're acting like I'm claiming that he's trying to take MAH GUNZ away?

Well I apologize for unskewing your post
010

Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21519 on: November 08, 2012, 02:28:18 PM »
Republicanism: Unskewed logic
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Great Rumbler

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21520 on: November 08, 2012, 02:28:43 PM »
That UN treaty doesn't have anything to do with domestic firearm possession in the first place, assuming it's even agreed to.
dog

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21521 on: November 08, 2012, 02:30:08 PM »
"My weight is average for an American" = unskewed 25 lbs overweight

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drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21522 on: November 08, 2012, 02:32:26 PM »
Yeah, it's not like Obama's name was in the headline, lead sentence, or url of the link.

yeah, it's not like it also said UN celebrates (NAME REDACTED) election by pushing global gun (control)

niga please

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21523 on: November 08, 2012, 02:34:05 PM »
HEY GUYZ LOOK AT THIS LINK!!!!!1!1!


Also please ignore ~60% of it's content.

Great Rumbler

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21524 on: November 08, 2012, 02:34:10 PM »
And it's not like the article didn't also have this:

Quote
"Just days ago as he campaigned for re-election," he concluded, "Barack Obama told his supporters that voting is the 'best revenge.' I guess now we know what he was talking about. The revenge he seeks is against American gun owners and their Second Amendment rights."

So, yeah.
dog

Mandark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21525 on: November 08, 2012, 02:36:10 PM »
We just haven't mastered unskewed reading comprehension.

ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21526 on: November 08, 2012, 02:37:23 PM »
Quote
I get what you're saying and it woulda been reasonable for Republicans to expect a 2010 turnout and Democrats to expect a 2008 turnout if there were a small amount of data available leading up to the election.  But there was a ton of data and I think it's pretty clear now that aggregated poll results leading up to an election is a lot more predictive

Yea, reading up more on the methodology, I was incorrect on how these polls are conducted/carried out.


drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21527 on: November 08, 2012, 02:38:18 PM »
That UN treaty doesn't have anything to do with domestic firearm possession in the first place, assuming it's even agreed to.

and I quote

Quote
Anti-gun treaty proponents continue to mislead the public, claiming the treaty would have no impact on American gun owners. That's a bald-faced lie. For example, the most recent draft treaty includes export/import controls that would require officials in an importing country to collect information on the 'end user' of a firearm, keep the information for 20 years, and provide the information to the country from which the gun was exported. In other words, if you bought a Beretta shotgun, you would be an 'end user' and the U.S. government would have to keep a record of you and notify the Italian government about your purchase. That is gun registration. If the U.S. refuses to implement this data collection on law-abiding American gun owners, other nations might be required to ban the export of firearms to the U.S.

that's from the institute of legislative action

And it's not like the article didn't also have this:

So, yeah.

i thought that comment was eye roll worthy too

Great Rumbler

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21528 on: November 08, 2012, 02:41:47 PM »
that's from the institute of legislative action

Which is a division of the National Rifle Association, just so we're clear.
dog

drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21529 on: November 08, 2012, 02:46:00 PM »
why yes it is, good sir

Human Snorenado

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21530 on: November 08, 2012, 02:46:23 PM »
Guys, I hope you're not implying that Drew is stupid or anything for his lunacidal, laser like focus on gun issues.

Really, we should just all come out and bluntly say it instead.
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ToxicAdam

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21531 on: November 08, 2012, 02:47:06 PM »
Quote
Bobby McDonald "learned the hard way that every vote counts," the Kentucky Enquirer reports.

McDonald "finished in a dead heat Tuesday with Olivia Ballou for the sixth and final seat on the Walton City Council
. Each candidate captured 669 votes, but one ballot McDonald is sure would have gone his way was never cast. His wife, Katie, who works nights... didn't make it to the polls yesterday.
Said McDonald: "If she had just been able to get in to vote, we wouldn't be going through any of this. You never think it will come down to one vote, but I'm here to tell you that it does."

 hahah

drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21532 on: November 08, 2012, 02:48:42 PM »
lunacidal

isn't that a new killstreak in Halo 4?

Barry Egan

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21533 on: November 08, 2012, 02:51:42 PM »
Pro-Life and Anti-Gay Rights Issues: Unskewed Theology!
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 02:54:43 PM by Barry Egan »

drew

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21534 on: November 08, 2012, 02:55:50 PM »
hey creepy old guy, to put this obsession you have with my brain v yours to rest once and for all why don't we both "come out bluntly" and post our ACT/SAT scores? the only rule is no lying.

Howard Alan Treesong

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21535 on: November 08, 2012, 02:59:22 PM »
I got a 1590 on my SAT...twice. Once was 800 Math, 790 Verbal; once was 790 Math, 800 Verbal.

Worst part is, my cousin got a 1600, so I'm "the dumb one." :maf
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Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21536 on: November 08, 2012, 03:07:22 PM »
Oklahoma just passed open carry laws. Come down here and we'll sling on our six-shooters and go to the Waffle House. There could be injuns about.
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Phoenix Dark

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21537 on: November 08, 2012, 03:10:03 PM »
Quote
Rene G. ‏@rcg99

Wow. Romney's staffers' credit cards were cancelled after his concession speech and couldn't be used to pay cab fare for ride home.
:lol

what a dick
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Joe Molotov

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21538 on: November 08, 2012, 03:11:52 PM »
:lol
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Barry Egan

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Re: "A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics
« Reply #21539 on: November 08, 2012, 03:12:36 PM »
:lol  he really does belong to the business world...