Next week might see the end of Merkel's reign
https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkels-battle-with-bavaria-refugees-migration-masterplan/All EU crises are coming to their conclusion.
1. Migration
The big issue. Seehofer (interior minster) wants to curb migration and fix it on Germany's terms as the EU has so far failed to reach (and or act) on an agreement. In 3 years time about 1.6 million migrants have entered Germany in less legal ways.
Seehofers' plan includes securing Germany's borders within the EU. Effectively putting Shengen on ice. Polls show most of the German public agrees with him. Merkel refused to let him show his plans but he's not backing down.
Branded a 'rebel' within the government. However, Seehofer is not from Merkel's party but the CSU. A more conservative party than hers which rules Bavaria an important border region. They're facing a big electoral challenge from Afd (Alternative for Germany) which is Germany's version of the 'far right'. Merkels' party wants Merkel to fire Seehofer, which would mean the end of the government and the coalition between the two parties CSU/CDU.
2. Greece and Italy
Italy and Greece are the key for Merkel's plan. She wants them to commit to the original EU migration policy. Which states that asylum seekers should request asylum in the country they first arrive in when they enter Europe.
Which are always the border states (Spain/Greece/Italy etc.) . She intends to offer them the same deal that Erdogan got. Take in the refugees and control the flows in exchange for cash. Now this might've worked 10 years ago but the situation is different.
Greece is fucked financially anyway. Any money they get would be used to pay off loans. They also have no love for Merkel. Italy is an interesting case as well. With populists in power, they're already denying NGO ships entry to ports.
Their interior minister has told illegal migrants to 'start packing their bags'. Chances that Merkel will find allies there for a 'deal' to save her ass domestically are slim. But without Greece and Italy a deal on migration is worthless.
3. Austria/Poland etc.
In the EU a 'coalition of the willing' it forming to reinstate border controls and limit migration. They recently gained a strong ally with Austria and if Seehofer gets his way Germany could join in as well.
Knowing this, these countries aren't expected to make a deal on Merkels terms anytime soon.
4. Merkels allies
An important ally for Germany in Europe is the Netherlands. But our government will be ridden in scandals after the weekend as well. They gave Shell a 7 billion euro tax cut on 45 billion in profit for no good reason outside the books.
Not only does this reek of corruption but it is forbidden within EU regulations as well. Macron of France is an ally of Merkel but he also sees that if Merkel falls on her own sword he would be the leading figure of the EU.
Otherwise Merkel is becoming increasingly isolated politically within the EU. Although she can count on the head figures of the EU itself.
Today Trump made a call to Orban of Hungary. They both discussed the importance of secure borders and Orban wants to create stronger ties between Hungary and the US. Going against Merkel and others who wish to counter Trump on the trade war.
And finally there is NATO who wants Germany to spend more (much more) on restoring and renewing it's military capability. Merkel so far has been cautious on this issue so no love lost there should Merkel lose her power.