THE BORE
General => Video Game Bored => Topic started by: maxy on December 28, 2012, 06:36:36 AM
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2012 is closing fast,time for some prediction fun.
Industry analysts predictions
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-28-crystal-gazing-what-to-expect-in-2013
Jesse Divnich, EEDAR
1. Smart Televisions - They Will be Kind of a Big Deal
We've recently seen major players such as Sony, Google, Samsung, Valve, OnLive, and Zynga throw their hats into the Smart Television ring.
We'll likely not see any material news or products launch until late 2013, but eventually the big trend in late 2013 will be Smart Televisions and their ability to revolutionize the way we consume interactive entertainment
2. Digital Gaming Revenue to Surpass Physical
We are nearly there already, but by the end of 2013, more revenue will be generated through the consumption of digitally purchased software and micro-transactions than physically purchased software.
3. GTA V Will Be Number One
If GTA V is released in the spring of 2013, it will become the number one grossing title of 2013 for all of interactive entertainment. Consumers have been starved for a great AAA single player experience for some time and we believe there is enough pent up demand for GTA to once again set some records.
4. Real-Time Multiplayer To Become A Driving Mobile/Tablet Feature
In 2013, however, we expect that real-time multiplayer or "synchronous multiplayer" will become an emerging popular feature. It will likely take a few big mobile/tablet titles to bring this prediction to light, but by the end of 2013, we expect that at least one, if not two, of the top ten selling mobile/tablet games will have a real-time multiplayer focus.
5. Mobile - The Biggest Year for Acquisitions and Layoffs
In 2013, we expect to see more independent developer acquisitions in conjunction with layoffs of those that couldn't make the cut.
It's a sad prediction to make, one we hope doesn't actualize, but with the data in front of us it is clear that the mobile/tablet landscape is likely to go through a significant transformation in 2013.
Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities
1. Wii U Feeling Price Cut Pressure
Wii U will get a price cut-I think that the Wii U will sell out for the first several months, but think that once the PS4 is announced at a competitive price, the Wii U will look overpriced. At the same time, we will probably see Xbox 360 and PS3 discounted to under $200 at some time in 2013, so the Wii U will have to price closer to those consoles to remain competitive.
2. New Bungie Game to Charge for Multiplayer
but it's not too late to introduce a new IP that is single player only, and that requires a subscription to play multiplayer. I think the Bungie game is perfect for this, as Bungie has a huge following, and the game is likely to sell 5 - 10 million units for the single player experience. I believe that Activision and Bungie will be happy if 2 - 3 million people subscribe to the multiplayer service, as that figure is likely to grow over the years if Bungie can keep the game interesting and fresh.
3. PS4 Announced Sooner Than You Think
The PS4 will be announced during the first quarter, and will launch before year-end-expect Sony to try to get a head start on Microsoft with an announcement before E3, likely in the first quarter of 2013. I think that PS4 will be built from commodity components, allowing Sony to charge a competitive price (likely $399 or less), and will be packed full of multimedia functionality.
4. No Next-Gen Xbox in 2013
Expect the Xbox 720 announcement at E3-I don't think the Xbox 720 will come out in 2013, but think that Microsoft will announce the device at E3, with a launch date in early 2014. The problem with a 2013 launch is that the feature set is not yet decided, and I think that the box will be able to receive television programming live, meaning that Microsoft has to negotiate with cable TV providers to deliver the box and integrate its functionality into the existing cable infrastructure.
5. GTA V May See Slower Than Usual Sales
Grand Theft Auto may struggle and sell “only” 20 million units-I think that conventional wisdom is that GTA V will attach to 25 percent of all Xbox 360s and PS3s out there (around 25 million units at launch mid-year), but it might have some trouble doing so for a couple of reasons: first, the game is primarily single-player, and the industry has morphed into a primarily multiplayer world; second, the game is launching the same year as next generation consoles, meaning that people who are willing to “wait” for the next generation are less likely to buy the game. If there is any franchise that defies logic, it's this one, so I could be completely wrong, but I think that people who love multiplayer will not be as likely to buy a primarily single-player game, limiting sales to “only” 20 million units or so. That's the price Rockstar pays for releasing games so far apart-the industry has moved away from them, and they haven't necessarily adapted.
David Cole, DFC Intelligence
1. The Bubble Bursts on Freemium Mobile
This is a market ready to collapse as the amount of investment dollars going into the space far exceeds consumer willingness to purchase. Long-term, DFC Intelligence believes that consumers, especially in the tablet space, will become more willing to buy the products they like upfront. In 2013 we are anticipating some big success stories in game apps priced in the $5-10 range.
2. Continued Investor Disconnect with the Game Revenue Model
The downward trend in retail sales is expected to continue in 2013.
Overall the industry shows strong consumer demand and the growth in digital sales has been impressive. Unfortunately, investors trade largely off of retail sales. The current generation of game systems is in decline and the industry will need new hardware systems to jump start sales at retail. Unfortunately for 2013 there is not a lot on the horizon.
3. A Year for Acquisitions
Many of the companies with the strongest brands have struggled to take full advantage of those brands and seen their value decline. Going into 2013 we see potential for investors to try and grab some bargains.
It is impossible to say who will buy what, but we can say that from an investment perspective the category is a lot less expensive than it was several years ago.
Take-Two Interactive is worth less than half of what it was when Electronic Arts tried to buy them four years ago. For its part, Electronic Arts' performance has been even worse. EA is worth about a quarter of what it was in 2008. Nintendo has had one of the biggest collapses, seeing its market value go from almost $80 billion to the $15 billion range.
4. Tepid Mass Market Reaction to Wii U Causes Sony and Microsoft to Hold Off on Launching New Systems
The launch of both the Wii U and the 3DS XL were very subdued affairs that indicate a lack of confidence in the product. The long term issue for the industry is a weak performance by Nintendo means that there is less pressure on Microsoft and Sony to release new game systems. The industry needs a stronger Nintendo to keep it on edge.
5. More Breakout Successes on XBLA and PSN Cause Developers to Flock Towards Online Console Products
We think 2013 will see even more success stories in digital only console titles. Of course, as usual, we expect that developers will overflood the market with product resulting in more losers than winners. However, that is just the nature of the beast in the game industry.
Billy Pidgeon, Inside Network
1. The Audience for Games is Still Growing But Could Peak in 2013
Many gamers who started out playing relatively simple casual games are more sophisticated, expect better gameplay and are willing to pay for it. And they don't have to turn to consoles to get better games.
2. The Next Generation of Consoles is Here But Will Have Low Impact
We're likely to see a next-generation console release in 2013. I believe it will be the successor to Xbox 360. Sony could (and should) reboot with a new console, but will probably continue to push PS3. Xbox 360 will still be the dominant platform for sales of packaged games.
3. Console Games Aren't Going Away, But They're Not Coming Back to Reclaim Past Numbers
games will be a disappointing category for traditional retailers in 2013. The unit and revenue numbers on boxed games were not good in 2012, and they'll likely be worse in 2013. GameStop will be hit particularly hard, as the market for packaged pre-owned games is deflating.
Revenue from console hardware and packaged software for consoles will increase somewhat with new consoles being launched. Uptake for eighth generation consoles will be much slower than in previous cycles, and attach rates of packaged games will be weaker.
4. Double-Digit Growth for Digital Revenue, Again
Revenue from digital game distribution has never been accurately reported. Rather, it's been consistently under-reported. Digital revenue from paid downloads, item transactions and services generated on all platforms -- consoles, PC, tablets and smartphones -- actually more than made up for the 2012 decreases noted in aggregate hardware and packaged software revenue. Based on my research and observations, I believe digital revenue will continue to grow at double-digit rates. I am less certain that vendors and publishers will provide corraborating numbers to back this up.
5. Games On Smartphones and Facebook Will Close The Quality Gap
More games for smartphones and Facebook will be higher quality, and players are developing more sophisticated tastes. Expectations are higher, and budgets are rising in accordance. It will be very difficult for small developers without heavy funding to break into mobile or Facebook. We'll also see more games delivered to television from PC, cloud and downloadable.
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Well, here are my predictions and they're better than those punkasses:
1) Nintendo announces a new Mario Kart game. Not shocking I know but the game will be rushed to act as a panic button for the Wii U's poor performance. It will be out later next year (October-November 2013). It will be coupled with a price drop of at least $50 ($249 for the tard pack, $299 for the deluxe set).
2) Nintendo's other panic button will be a new Mario game from the Galaxy team but because of its size and scope, it will be out sometime in 2014. A new Zelda will be out in 2014 as well but nobody gives a fuck outside of hardcore Nintards. Those new IPs that Nintendo needs aren't going to show up. Nintendo would rather bank on the idea of using their existing IPs to carry the system.
3) Once Soul Sacrifice fails to light up the charts in Japan, Sony will slowly start backing away from the Vita. By the fall of 2013, there will hardly be anything out for it, other than hentai crapola and digital novel games. Falcom shocks Vita nerds everywhere by moving to the 3DS and/or iOS, providing the death knell for the Vita. Another death knell will be that the Vita will be cracked wide open, allowing a significant wave of piracy to destroy even the tiny amount of software sales the system receives already.
4) The Durango and PS4 will both be out in the fall. SKUs will likely range from $350-500.
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I predict that if MS doesnt launch before Sony ill buy a PS4.
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Atari and Taito will be bought out by larger players (again) and their brand names will be shamelessly exploited.
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You cant exploit names that mean nothing anymore.
One thing is for sure Im super happy I opted out of working in localisation finally, with the company I work for being so dependent on Sony stuff it could have been a bad bad year...
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Well only Atari then.
Fantasy time:
Millions/Old Technos to come back stronger in 2013
The Last Story 2 announced : With good funds and a good work horse studio for mistwalker to work with
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I predict that last of us could be successful based on its subject matter if sony weren't so inept at marketing games. Same with bioshock infinite, because old american imagery is incredibly appealing to americans.
Nintendo will create a blockade to further its stance on region locking. During spaceworld 2013 it'll announce plans to erect a giant glass dome around Japan "just in case."
Microsoft will release Halo 2 HD, or some kind of interim Halo product.
Despite the walking dead's numerous game of the year awards, no one will consider Beyond a game.
People will confuse Army of Two 3 with Fuse and vice versa . Lucky for EA, no one cares about either game.
Vita won't
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1. Sony will begin doing something with their Gakkai purchase. Streaming games will be exclusive to Sony devices and consoles at first, with apps for other devices and PC to come later. Titles will be few in the beginning, mainly PS1/2/PSN games. They'll fold it in as part of PS+ subscriptions, with some cloud games added into the "instant game collection."
2. Sony will start making a last push for Vita, positioning it as a PS3 accessory/Wii U style controller and hinting at the function carrying over to PS4. Expect a few PSN games to have the functionality at first, with the possibility of a larger game like Last of Us patching in the functionality after release. Vita will get the Gakkai game streaming app. Price drop to $199-179, including 4GB card and game/voucher.
3. Next Xbox launches with two skus, base model with smaller storage and premium model with larger storage and pack-in games. Both models will have Kinect 2 packed-in. Kinect 2 will be able to pull off most of the crazy shit they showed back at that Kinect 1 announcement E3. They will continue their 2-year XBL subscription commitment program, bringing down the launch price of the consoles as an option for those not willing to lay down the initial $399. XBL may start aping PS+ a bit by offering a "Game of the month" for free to Gold subscribers. Expect a hype reel for the Xbox Surface tab at E3, with it to launch sometime in early 2014, emphasis on crossplay with the new Xbox and entertainment connectivity.
4. One of the console manufacturers will sign a multi-year deal with a large publisher, for a set amount of games to made permanently exclusive for their systems and devices. These will likely be only 1 or 2 AAA retail games and the rest DD/tablet games, but a big media deal will be made of it.
5. Nintendo will start bundling a pro controller or Wiimote in with the Wii U. Price drop around E3. Expect a couple of third parties to do something along the lines of "The ___ Collection," collected ports of older franchise games with nominal Gamepad functionality added, at "discount" bundle prices. Nintendo may repackage some older games in the same way.
6. PS4 will have only one sku. They will go with proprietary hard drives. They may or may not start requiring subscriptions for PSN MP access, but it will be a nominal fee in comparison to XBL ($20 a year, maybe?) and will include a "lite" version of PS+ (2-3 "free" games a year).
7. Steambox will be formally announced and shown at E3. No mention of a launch date. Don't expect to actually see it on shelves in 2013. They'll also announce Half-Life 3 and show a little footage, just to get everyone off their backs, but don't expect to see that in 2013, either.
8. At least one major AAA console game will be announced as DD only. You'll be able to buy vouchers for it in stores, but no retail disc release - unless the disc simply installs the game files and requires online activation, like PC games.
9. Amazon will begin making a bigger push into game development for tablets and PC.
10. For PS4 and Next Xbox, games with MP will mostly achieve parity with PC. BF4 having full 64-player maps, heavily filtered mod/map support, that kind of thing.
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Tepid Mass Market Reaction to Wii U Causes Sony and Microsoft to Hold Off on Launching New Systems
The launch of both the Wii U and the 3DS XL were very subdued affairs that indicate a lack of confidence in the product. The long term issue for the industry is a weak performance by Nintendo means that there is less pressure on Microsoft and Sony to release new game systems. The industry needs a stronger Nintendo to keep it on edge.
This made me laugh.
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I predict that.. I will have fun playing video games.
Bit of a cop out, but at least I can be sure of this one.
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Tepid Mass Market Reaction to Wii U Causes Sony and Microsoft to Hold Off on Launching New Systems
The launch of both the Wii U and the 3DS XL were very subdued affairs that indicate a lack of confidence in the product. The long term issue for the industry is a weak performance by Nintendo means that there is less pressure on Microsoft and Sony to release new game systems. The industry needs a stronger Nintendo to keep it on edge.
This made me laugh.
yeah, haha
"Fellas, fellas. You know those billions we've invested in R&D for the new console? All the launch games our publishing partners are sinking money into? Weeeeellllll, how about we play it close to the vest for a while and just put all that stuff on the back burner. Nintendo isn't moving enough Wii U units."
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I predict that I'll be too busy playing Ni No Kuni, Soul Hackers, and Tales of Xillia to care. And I'd like to make a prediction that the US will get Bravely Default over here.
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I predict that I'll be too busy playing Ni No Kuni, Soul Hackers, and Tales of Xillia to care.
nicca you are just now playing persona 4
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Harmonix will finally bite the bullet. Dance Central 3 was a flop, rock band dlc has resorted to tracks off of Green Day ROck Banned and Blitz, they dont even support the pro guitar anymore. They deserve death.
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...says the guy who got perma'd from SA for hating Harmonix so much :P
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WiiU will revolutionize multiple genres (point/click adventures, mini games, fighting games, fps) and make normal controllers irrelavent
Small and indie devs will flock to the low costs of the WiiU, leading to massive amounts of content and software
Miyamoto will release a new IP that changes gaming forever
Retro's new, mature fps will be a Halo 4 killer
Pilotwings holiday 2013
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I will buy a bunch of shitty anime mecha based games and have a blast with them.
Persona 5 will finally be unveiled for PS3/360. Nintendo fans will whine.
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yeah, haha
"Fellas, fellas. You know those billions we've invested in R&D for the new console? All the launch games our publishing partners are sinking money into? Weeeeellllll, how about we play it close to the vest for a while and just put all that stuff on the back burner. Nintendo isn't moving enough Wii U units."
Actually, if you think about it, the longer the PS3 and 360 remain around it gives the WiiU more chances at third party ports. Making it seem more desirable.
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Sho Nuff predicts he will be looking for work six out of the twelve months of the year and will be REAL thankful he's been saving money by cooking for himself and only buying heavily discounted PC games on Steam
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Nintendo will do something dumb and we'll laugh about it.
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Nintendo will do something dumb and we'll laugh about it.
Woah, bold predictions.
Care to tell me if the sun will rise tomorrow?
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I will buy a bunch of shitty anime mecha based games and have a blast with them.
Persona 5 will finally be unveiled for PS3/360. Nintendo fans will whine.
I have faith that both of these things will happen.
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I will buy a bunch of shitty anime mecha based games and have a blast with them.
Persona 5 will finally be unveiled for PS3/360. Nintendo fans will whine.
I have faith that both of these things will happen.
Atlus has admitted that Persona 5 exists so many damn times, they need to actually show it off. Especially before Prole's kiddo beats 4, or she'll show up on their doorstep in the Honz and demand it.
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A pack of wild boars will rip Miyamoto limb from limb and consume his flesh and entrails. I will laugh.
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A pack of wild boars will rip Miyamoto limb from limb and consume his flesh and entrails. I will laugh.
:bow boars :bow2
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Persona 5 will finally be unveiled for PS3/360. Nintendo fans will whine.
It's most likely PS360, but you can expect orders of magnitude more whining on the off chance it turns out to be a 3DS or Vita game. ;)
Speaking of Megaten, I think we'll see Devil Survivor 2 3DS and Persona 4 Arena Vita in 2013.
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Harmonix ARE dieing. Looks like I mightve won within 3 months losers. :-[
http://www.rockband.com/forums/showthread.php?t=233202&p=4957316&viewfull=1#post4957316
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Vita dead by 9/11/13
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It will certainly be interesting to see what Sony does with Vita.
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just wait for e3
lulz