THE BORE
General => The Superdeep Borehole => Topic started by: shosta on August 02, 2019, 08:55:19 PM
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(Business Insider) IT DIDN'T WORK: Despite the Fed, the yield curve is stuck in 'recession' mode, stocks are a mess, and manufacturing is in retreat (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-red-flag-yield-curve-narrows-fed-cuts-interest-rates-2019-8-1028407378)
The gap in yield between three-month and 10-year government bonds slid further below zero to hover at about -5.5 basis points. The measure — which shows how uncertain bond investors are about the short-term fate of the economy — has inverted before every US recession for the past 50 years, according to the Financial Times.
US stocks declined on the news, the European and Asian markets were mixed, and real-world survey data from manufacturers in Europe showed the economy was slowing. Put all those factors together — a rate cut not shifting the yield curve, stocks going nowhere, and lousy macro data — and you have all the warnings signs for a contraction, all flashing at once.
Out in the real world, the global economy gave every sign is was entering a contraction. The purchasing managers' index for manufacturers in Europe hit its lowest measure since December 2012 in July, according to IHS Markit.
Europe: It was the "sharpest recorded reduction in employment for over six years" across the eurozone, the research firm said.
The UK: Manufacturing PMI stayed stuck at a 6-1/2-year low.
Germany: The index hit at seven-year low. The downturn in that country was gathering pace, IHS Markit said.
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:nope 2 Great 2 Depressing
:ohyeah Great and the Depressing: Yield Curve Drift
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Just in time for the election!
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the yield curve doesn't mean what it used to with the abundance of bonds that the fed has been holding since the great recession which in turn has put pressure on the long-term rates so things are a bit skewed due to your typical fed fuckery.
still, people should be alarmed, very very alarmed.
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Just die before you retire
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EU leaders must give their chief negotiator the mandate to revise the UK's withdrawal agreement, otherwise a no-deal Brexit is "coming down the tracks", the Brexit secretary has said.
(https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-businessman-pointing-gun-his-260nw-122908324.jpg)
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China, which has typically held its currency steady, on Monday let its yuan sink to the lowest level against the US dollar in 11 years. The yuan has exceeded seven to each US dollar, a key psychological threshold.
That move was considered a strong message by Beijing to Washington that China was prepared to use its currency as a weapon in the trade war. A weaker currency can help China remain competitive in exports.
Shortly after midday in New York, Beijing also announced that it was suspending the purchase of American agricultural products and “has not ruled out import tariffs on US agricultural products purchased after August 3,” state news agency Xinhua said.
In a note to investors, Chris Krueger of the investment banking firm Cowen called the currency move “a massive Chinese retaliation”.
“On a scale of 1-10, it's an 11,” he said.
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https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/1158765836141826048
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(https://preview.redd.it/itqdze1bk9f31.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=34fc4f8db46ba17e8051d1443a37cb31facd8440)
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The recent escalation in the U.S.-China trade war has brought forward the next U.S. recession, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters who now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in September and once more next year.
Despite expectations for further easing, the Aug 6-8 poll gave a median 45per cent probability of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession in the next two years, up from 35per cent in the previous poll and the highest since that question was first asked in May 2018.
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:heh
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(http://i.imgur.com/p5cETuw.png)
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(https://i.imgur.com/bombLVR.jpg)
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President Donald Trump on Friday said he was ordering U.S. companies to “immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.” markets didn't like that one. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/trump-says-hes-ordering-american-companies-to-immediately-start-looking-for-an-alternative-to-china.html)
Trump also said he was ordering all U.S. postal carriers, including FedEx, Amazon, UPS and United States Post Office, “to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!).” :confused
Fed doesn't commit to any specific policy because they don't know how long trade war will last and monetary policy has long term effects (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/powell-jackson-hole-speech.html)
(https://fm-static.cnbc.com/awsmedia/chart/2019/8/23/Trump%20Powel%20tweets.1566572369131.png)
there are no adults in the room :rejoice
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Why is our government set up in such a way that a single person is able to fuck everything up
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Why is our government set up in such a way that a single person is able to fuck everything up
It isn't and most of what Trump does is beyond the scope of his appointment but republicans aren't going to tell him "no, you can't do that" and be seen to be going against their king.
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:fbm
https://twitter.com/iceyefi/status/1168618527751888898
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And they're still getting dumped on, too. :fbm
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I feel so bad for them. On I guess the brighter side, looking at maps Freeport was on the western side of the island which wasn't hit as bad? I mean not 180mph stationary buzz saw bad.
I will be looking at charities later but some info will be outdated in a bad way.
Good vibes is Florida lucked out.
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Freeport is slightly higher that most of the rest of the island, based on some of the maps I've seen. Hopefully, most of the town made it through without too much damage, but with all that wind for so long there's definitely going to be some even without catastrophic flooding.
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Footage coming in. Hopefully most people were able to go south. :-\
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https://twitter.com/APWestRegion/status/1169777810359144448
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The defendants argued that city workers were to blame for not raising concerns about fire hazards and said the fire was arson. Investigators have never found its cause, meaning arson cannot be ruled out.
Serra, Almena's attorney, repeatedly brought up instances in which fire, police and other officials toured the two-story building and never said anything about it posing a danger.
Almena cried on his first day on the witness stand, saying that he felt remorse and sorrow for having fostered a space for artists. He said he would never have let his wife and three children live somewhere considered unsafe.
"I built something. I dreamed something, I invited, I attracted beautiful people into my space, and I'm responsible for having this idea," Almena said.
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https://twitter.com/verge/status/1173933992908705792
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https://twitter.com/verge/status/1173933992908705792
:goty
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Does that mean I'll never have to bump into the show again if Im flipping through someone's cable TV?
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Does that mean I'll never have to bump into the show again if Im flipping through someone's cable TV?
Part of the reason it's so high is to extend the current tbs deal for syndication.
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/pittsburgh-pirates-all-star-closer-felipe-vazquez-arrested-charged-with-soliciting-a-child?ref=home
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Does that mean I'll never have to bump into the show again if Im flipping through someone's cable TV?
Part of the reason it's so high is to extend the current tbs deal for syndication.
I see. Oh well
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I never understood the vitriol BBT got.
It's just a shitty sitcom like many others, not even the worst of 'em.
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Probably has to do with the popularity of the show.
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I never understood the vitriol BBT got.
It's just a shitty sitcom like many others, not even the worst of 'em.
It hit too close to home with some people.
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Mods deleted the chipmunk thread :(
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It must have been bork the tyrant.
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But for real, come on bruh
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I never understood the vitriol BBT got.
It's just a shitty sitcom like many others, not even the worst of 'em.
Actually, this is super wrong in my experience.
BBT was the first show to start having laugh tracks for no reason, even in shows like King of Queens (where it’s heavy) BBT theory will literally play laugh tracks at random moments in conversations.
On the extremely rare occasion I’ve watched TV with my brother, we’ll switch by BBT while it’s on and point out shit like how sometimes a character will just mundanely be doing something and there’s this rolling laugh track that just has to play every 3-4 seconds from low to high throughout.
Also the humor is shit where they’ll extend obvious gags with catchphrases, it’s a nerd comedy show that gets as deep into Science as the Comicbook Brand section of an Old Navy etc.
I’ll admit to liking sitcoms as low as King of Queens, but BBT is actively repulsive
I watched several TV shows that went on during lunch time here back in the day, because of circumstance more than interest, but BBT was one of them, along with other subpar sit-coms such as According to Jim, My Wife and Kids (this one was decent), Two and a Half Men, Two Broke Girls, and such fluff.
There was nothing peculiar at all in the laugh tracks BBT used, from all the episodes i saw (at least 2 or 3 seasons worth).
It was either after a punchline, or after a character did something obviously meant to be inappropriate or funny.
The fact that the laugh track feels unearned, because the jokes are cheap, is another matter altogether, and something all the ones i mentioned share.
They were (more or less) all the same level of formulaic humor and plotlines, on top of a stereotypical premise.
The only thing setting BBT apart was the nerd culture setting, instead of the blue collar moron or the sassy waitress themes, but it still had your regular jokes and punchlines, with relatively defined character arcs.
It was mediocre, but not worse than any of the other shows.
Even the infamous "geek references" some nerds got bent out of shape about, were generally used within the context of jokes set ups, or to highlight a character being a fish out of water (which was the equivalent of showing how out of place Jim Belushi was at the opera with his "sophisticated" wife).
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I never understood the vitriol BBT got.
It's just a shitty sitcom like many others, not even the worst of 'em.
Actually, this is super wrong in my experience.
BBT was the first show to start having laugh tracks for no reason, even in shows like King of Queens (where it’s heavy) BBT theory will literally play laugh tracks at random moments in conversations.
On the extremely rare occasion I’ve watched TV with my brother, we’ll switch by BBT while it’s on and point out shit like how sometimes a character will just mundanely be doing something and there’s this rolling laugh track that just has to play every 3-4 seconds from low to high throughout.
Also the humor is shit where they’ll extend obvious gags with catchphrases, it’s a nerd comedy show that gets as deep into Science as the Comicbook Brand section of an Old Navy etc.
I’ll admit to liking sitcoms as low as King of Queens, but BBT is actively repulsive
:thinking
I never understood the vitriol BBT got.
It's just a shitty sitcom like many others, not even the worst of 'em.
It hit too close to home with some people.
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Watch The IT Crowd if you want BBT except not made for complete idiot whores.
I guess there's a potential laugh every five episodes or so in BBT, so it's at least better than generic family sitcoms - I guess? Still though. :nope
What are you doing Sheldon???
Making a new wifi password
(https://media.tenor.com/images/f7354b8c66dcf774a0cd75d1806e0d56/tenor.gif)
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(https://i.imgur.com/189SdNm.png)
It's happening :phil
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Looks like there will always be a a recession when it looks like a Democrat has a good chance of winning the presidency.
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https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/26/us/georgia-woman-shot-in-head-man-sentenced/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F
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https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1180930991315193860
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/teachers-suspended-unsupervised-toddlers-escape-154638185.html
U.S.
Teachers suspended after unsupervised toddlers escape preschool, wander into traffic
USA TODAY BrieAnna J. Frank, Arizona Republic,USA TODAY 5 hours ago
Reactions Reblog on Tumblr Share Tweet Email
PHOENIX – Seven toddlers, some possibly as young as 18 months, wandered away from a Gilbert preschool and into traffic Friday morning, prompting motorists to hit their brakes and round them up.
Samantha Crouch told The Arizona Republic she was driving northbound on Val Vista Drive when she noticed cars stopping and honking their horns.
When she looked out her window, she noticed two toddlers on the street. One of them was using a yellow push toy, she said.
The children had escaped out a gate at the Little Sunshine's Playhouse & Preschool in Gilbert.
Crouch posted on a Gilbert-based Facebook group that she came "very, very close" to hitting the two toddlers, whom she estimated were about 18 months old.
"We're talking screeching tires and honking horns," Crouch wrote.
There was also a group of children on the sidewalk but "absolutely no adult outside at the time," she said.
She and two other drivers got out of their vehicles and ushered the children to safety.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7544167/US-diplomats-wife-42-ran-killed-British-teen-named.html
Maddening
https://twitter.com/TamikaiTTV/status/1180963133143298048
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1180982158103592960
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https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1181789654233866241
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https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-30/uci-fraternity-brothers-charged-alcohol-poisoning-death
https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1189720649016713216
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1189779340629860352
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https://twitter.com/LexiNahlTV/status/1189722372116484097
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Stop trying to make people depressed!