:nope 2 Great 2 Depressing
:ohyeah Great and the Depressing: Yield Curve Drift
Shost, was Shaikh worth reading in the end? I downloaded a sample on Kindle and it looked like a lot of neo ricardian formula dork shit. I'm not opposed to that but it's not a priority :trumpsIt really depends. This is 800 pages of dense and often tedious material. I would say it took 30 hours of my life away, and that's even with skimming a couple of chapters. Some of the earlier chapters especially get into that "formula dork shit" you're talking about; my eyes glazed over during the chapter on reducing prices to dated quantities of labor. That said, I was very impressed with the thoroughness of the presentation and especially the format: every chapter presents a topic or problem, provides a brief overview of what various schools propose (usually the dominant neoclassical and post-keynesian treatments), presents what he calls the "classical" version, and then very often offers convincing and systematic empirical evidence. As a post-keynesian fanboy it was kind of sad seeing authors I like being shit all over but the targets are usually justified... profits are not stable markups, there is no such thing as "degree of monopoly power", there's no correlation between concentration and profits, capacity utilization is not a free variable, and so on. There is also a huge amount of historical content in here that was very interesting to read. As for original content, this is by no means thorough, but off the top of my head, I enjoyed the consistent and empirical microfoundations, the detailed analysis of Ricardo's comparative advantage (and why Krugman sucks), the return of the Philips Curve :leon, and a modification of Harrodian growth theory that doesn't have the knife edge problem.
I've been reading about the formation and development of both Koreas as well as industrialization efforts across capitalist and socialist history and i thought this was alright. I love Palladium because it's one of those confused publications that tries *really* hard not to take a stance on the dollar vs. hammer-and-sickle divide and occasionally you get some good stuff and other times you get some half assed bullshit.
https://palladiummag.com/2020/02/12/how-state-capacity-drives-industrialization/
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 3.5% drop at the open on Monday.holy shit, this week is going to be awesome :lawd
QuoteFutures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 3.5% drop at the open on Monday.holy shit, this week is going to be awesome :lawd
oil price shock gonna tear people a new one
Please never bet with Shotty again you little shit.???
:nope 2 Great 2 Depressing
:ohyeah Great and the Depressing: Yield Curve Drift
Flannel Boy is going to lose the bet :heyman
Him and his Marxian voodooIf the bet were for a substantial amount, he would have caused a giant asteroid to strike the Earth.
Reopen the Bad News Thread! :steinerThat was clearly a thread about this coming recession and you turned it into a repository for news articles about grown men raping babies
Reopen the Bad News Thread! :steinerThat was clearly a thread about this coming recession and you turned it into a repository for news articles about grown men raping babies
Crisafulli noted that oil is "critical" to the U.S. economy. Many people are employed by the industry, and highly leveraged oil and gas companies are key to the fixed income market.
"The sector is like the 'FANG' of credit, esp. high yield, given the enormous amount of debt it has outstanding," he said.
Dow −1,884.88 (7.29%)
How much to buy out of the bet?I'll let you get out of it now for $75 :trumps
I'm just waiting for that credit crunch as speculative finance practices go bad and over-leveraging multiplies the pain. Maybe by the end of next month.
The beer virus and oil shock has combined together to double fuck small companies. Last Monday, high yield (junk bond) oil companies were essentially given a death sentence within the next 6 months.crunchatize me captain :noah
Why? Non integrated (not XOM or CVX) can't roll their debt over because no one in their right mind is going to lend to them. Worse yet, since 2014 a good amount of money in oil is private equity money, which naturally leveraged up to get a greater return.
Because these PEs are so leveraged, contagion is spreading into other lower grade companies who can't easily access the credit markets. This includes a large portion of Russell 2000 small caps.
For example, small manufacturers can't get the raw materials in from China, and can't create value if there is a quarantine because employees can't work from home. No cash flow = can't service debt, plus the new problem of not being able to roll over debt.
You can give a bank money and persuade them to lend, but as we have seen from TARP, you can't make them because no bank is willing to take on more credit risk with a recession on the horizon.
Credit spreads all the way to BBB have exploded these last two days, much more than during the coronavirus declines the weeks prior. Everyone waiting for the corporate debt bubble to pop, this is the start.
The Federal Reserve, saying “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States,” cut interest rates to near-zero on Sunday and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program to shelter the economy from the effects of the virus. ... The Fed also cut reserve requirement ratios for thousands of banks to zero.
We need a double bazooka policy response
The Fed blasted its monetary bazooka for sure
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, fell by more than 10 percent Wednesday to near $24 a barrel, a level last seen in April 2002.
“Oil prices can go negative,” wrote Paul Sankey, managing director at Mizuho Securities.
CORONAVIRUS CHOKEHOLD ON US WORSENS OIL INDUSTRY'S PAIN
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the U.S. and global economy to a standstill by prompting “shelter in place” orders, social distancing between people and the cancellation of non-essential travel. The sharp slowdown in economic activity has curtailed the need for oil.
If that weren't enough, Saudi Arabia recently slashed oil prices and raised output after Russia refused to join OPEC in deepening production cuts.
Oil is a 100 million barrel-per-day market, but Sankey says it’s possible that the economic fallout from the pandemic could zap demand, creating a 20 million barrel-per-day surplus.
https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1241389189490454528
This thread is stupid there is no economy anymore
:whewWait, we're just straight up buying corporate debt now? We should have done this a long time ago. Do household debt next pls
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1242061768752533516Fed's ready to BRRR indefinitely and the Democrats are dragging their feet over carbon emissions for AIRLINES which won't exist in 7 months.
:whew
Fed's ready to BRRR indefinitely and the Democrats are dragging their feet over carbon emissions for AIRLINES which won't exist in 7 months.You don't know what you're quoting means do you.
LMAO fucking idiots.
If Germany, NL et al turn them down it will be huge!
Americans displaced by the coronavirus crisis filed unemployment claims in record numbers last week, with the Labor Department reporting Thursday a surge to 3.28 million.They were expecting 2 million :larry
After a 6 hour video call last night the Dutch and Germans blocked the EurobondsQuoteIf Germany, NL et al turn them down it will be huge!
In the midst of the corona crisis the Dutch are not taking on the French debt and the French will never accept the price the Germans want them to pay which is sound fiscal policy :snob
The U.S. mortgage finance system could collapse if the Federal Reserve doesn’t step in with emergency loans to offset a coming wave of missed payments from borrowers crippled by the coronavirus pandemic.
Congress did not include relief for the mortgage industry in its $2 trillion rescue package — even as lawmakers required mortgage companies to allow homeowners up to a year's delay in making payments on federally backed loans.
When individuals stop making payments on their home mortgages, the companies that handle the loans and process those payments, so-called mortgage servicers, are still on the hook: They're legally obligated to keep sending money to insurers and investors in mortgage-backed securities, the giant bundles of home loans that are packaged and sold on the securities markets.
Now industry executives and regulators are worried that Congress's generosity toward homeowners could wipe out those companies, causing investors not to get paid and potentially bankrupting the entire mortgage finance system — a domino effect that would make it much harder for borrowers to access credit to buy homes.
The Mortgage Bankers Association in a dire letter to regulators Sunday warned that the U.S. housing market is “in danger of large-scale disruption,” due to efforts by the Federal Reserve that were intended to help rescue the mortgage market.the fed accidentally destroyed the housing market while it was trying to stabilize it :dead :dead :dead
At issue are the Fed’s unprecedented $183 billion of purchases last week of mortgage-backed securities. The purchases were meant to drive down rates, and they did.
But together with the storm that gripped financial markets from the coronavirus, they also effectively blew up a widespread hedge that mortgage bankers use to protect themselves against rate increases. The hedge pays them if the prevailing rate in the market is higher than the rate than the mortgage rate they locked with the customer.
The system works well unless mortgage rates are highly volatile. It is generally considered to be a safe trade: the hedge simply protects the lender against higher rates until the mortgage closes. But compounding the problem, many customers couldn’t close on their loans because of quarantines, leaving the mortgage lenders with only the cost of the hedge and no off-setting loan.
The huge volatility in mortgage bonds created massive margin calls from the broker-dealers, who wrote the hedges, to their mortgage bankers.
WASHINGTON — As lawmakers prepare for another round of fiscal stimulus to address economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested the next package include a retroactive rollback of a tax change that hurt high earners in states like New York and California.
The move to lift a limit on the state and local tax deduction, or SALT, would provide a quick cash infusion in the form of increased tax rebates to an estimated 13 million American households — nearly all of which earn at least $100,000 a year. More than half the benefits of such an effort would go to millionaires.
In a more modest plan, the Dutch government wants the EU to set up a smaller €10-€20bn fund to be “donated” to southern economies fighting the pandemic.:pacspit
Klaus Regling, ESM managing director, said this week that it would take up to three years to set up a new European institution to issue coronabonds.:picard
This will end with Mark Rutte as the President of the European Federation.QuoteIn a more modest plan, the Dutch government wants the EU to set up a smaller €10-€20bn fund to be “donated” to southern economies fighting the pandemic.:pacspitQuoteKlaus Regling, ESM managing director, said this week that it would take up to three years to set up a new European institution to issue coronabonds.:picard
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F15d8efe0-74db-11ea-bdb4-63a4a5b78613-mobile.png?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490)
:doge :doge :doge
An increase, from 2.5% to 10%, in the maximum share of unsecured debt instruments issued by any single other banking group in a credit institution’s collateral pool. This will enable counterparties to benefit from a larger share of such assets.what could possibly go wrong
I think France is already officially in recession according to our local statistical offices and the talking point of "biggest economic slowdown since 1945" has been thrown out here.Some parties here want some sort of economic 'kickstart' but it's not exactly clear what it would look like.
(https://i.imgur.com/RcJb9OS.jpg)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVEUGKHU8Akko_t?format=jpg&name=medium)
The Bank of England will directly finance the extra spending needs of the UK government on a temporary basis, the government announced on Thursday, allowing the Treasury to bypass the bond market.the magic money tree is finally here :hyper
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1248284882834534402
Not if you just plan to just forgive that debt so oil CEOs can afford their bonuses.the government won't bankrupt lenders by decree, they'll just keep purchasing liabilities.
The real issue with low prices is what that does to the income of specific regions. It'll be extremely badVenezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, who will go down first? :doge
The real issue with low prices is what that does to the income of specific regions. It'll be extremely badI mean if it doesn't recover pumping oil won't be economically viable, plus now you will have countries sitting on huge stocks they need to burn through before they get back to buying oil at regular prices. I don't see demand recovering for a while as I don't see lockdowns going away soon
Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, who will go down first? :dogeTexas
Saudi Arabia and Russia will be fine, they are actually the people driving this and I can't see their endgame being 'well now we're fucked'The real issue with low prices is what that does to the income of specific regions. It'll be extremely badVenezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, who will go down first? :doge
I mean if it doesn't recover pumping oil won't be economically viable, plus now you will have countries sitting on huge stocks they need to burn through before they get back to buying oil at regular prices. I don't see demand recovering for a while as I don't see lockdowns going away soonWhat governments should be doing is what they are doing: purchasing oil for strategic reserves so that the glut can be distributed more orderly over a larger period of time and production doesn't have to shut on and off. It doesn't matter that it's not "economically viable" because we don't need the oil - there is already oil, that's the problem. The particulars in keeping the companies' balance books healthy is just a policy thing. But again, the biggest issue is: less exports = less imports. We will see how many dollars the world economy can actually handle.
@1:50 US oil people talking about the impact on US energy
https://youtu.be/4rNL_LVDSyg
I just mentally blocked every time they praised Trump lmao@1:50 US oil people talking about the impact on US energy
https://youtu.be/4rNL_LVDSyg
So much ball washing. It's unwatchable. :yuck
Saudi Arabia and Russia will be fine, they are actually the people driving this and I can't see their endgame being 'well now we're fucked'It's a Mexican standoff thing. If you can wait out your other guy long enough that he lowers his production you can end up with a larger share of the market than you did before. Everyone has to quit pumping at the same time in a "fair way". Which they did, OPEC cut production.
weird fact about South Africa, we actually have the biggest crude storage facility in the entire southern hemisphere and looking to build an even bigger terminal. Also I'm saying it won't be economically viable for energy producers, they will go bankrupt and or nationalised/expensive bailouts. The economics of governments buying oil and storing it is as you say a policy thing.I mean if it doesn't recover pumping oil won't be economically viable, plus now you will have countries sitting on huge stocks they need to burn through before they get back to buying oil at regular prices. I don't see demand recovering for a while as I don't see lockdowns going away soonWhat governments should be doing is what they are doing: purchasing oil for strategic reserves so that the glut can be distributed more orderly over a larger period of time and production doesn't have to shut on and off. It doesn't matter that it's not "economically viable" because we don't need the oil - there is already oil, that's the problem. The particulars in keeping the companies' balance books healthy is just a policy thing. But again, the biggest issue is: less exports = less imports. We will see how many dollars the world economy can actually handle.
Wasn't it about 13 years ago, oil was selling at $140 a barrel? The whole system is bullshit.price fixing isn't illegal when your goverment does it :idont
edit: meh, don't want to add to speculationCoward :hmph
Lenders are warning their customers they might not be able to secure loans even if Congress provides an additional $300 billion as soon as this week. Banking industry representatives say the program has a burn rate of $50 billion per day and needs closer to $1 trillion to meet demand, with hundreds of thousands of applications pending.
Pierre Andurand, one of the world’s best-known oil traders, has suffered a big loss in his hedge fund during a turbulent start to 2020 for energy markets.
Mr Andurand, founder of London-based Andurand Capital Management, one of the last few hedge funds specialising in oil, experienced a loss of about 8 per cent in his main fund in January, according to three people familiar with its performance.
The fund, which last year was managing about $1bn in assets, also lost money in 2018 and 2019, with January extending the streak of declines for a trader who used to pride himself on beating often-volatile oil markets.
Pierre Andurand, one of the world’s best-known hedge fund managers specialising in oil, cashed in on US crude’s historic crash this week, adding to strong gains in both of his main funds this year.
[...]
His two funds started betting against the oil price, reasoning energy would be one of the hardest-hit sectors. The core fund, which holds roughly half of the firm’s assets under management, gained more than 63 per cent for the year, net of fees, in the first quarter, according to people familiar with the fund’s performance.
His second, riskier fund, which is now roughly the same size, was up 153 per cent over the same period. Crude was trading close to $70 a barrel in early January.
Mr Andurand, a kick-boxing devotee and former champion swimmer, has in the past recruited a number of Olympic gold medallists to his roster of analysts and traders, working out of offices overlooking the luxury department store Harrods in Knightsbridge, London.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday insisted that flailing state and local governments should be able to “use the bankruptcy route” rather than receive aid from the federal government — signaling renewed opposition to a top Democratic demand for the next coronavirus relief package.
In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, the Kentucky Republican also expressed concern about adding billions more to the national debt in addition to the nearly $3 trillion Congress has already sent out the door to combat the economic and public health challenges of the pandemic.
So I have some bonds that my grandpa left me when he died a while back. I sold most of them to pay for grad school, but still have some. I don't really know anything about them other than I get like $1,000 a year check which is cool and they seem to go up and down slightly over the quarters.
Anyhow, my parents are telling me that during major recessions it's likely a lot of these small municipals will file bankruptcy and then all your bonds become $0 and you lose everything, so they're telling me to sell my whole portfolio now before that happens. It's down a little (like $3,000 or something from when they were purchased) and they're paying out at like 3-5% and won't be able to put it into anything right now beyond like 1% online bank. So will lose some money if I dump it all now.
Just looking for second opinions since I know nothing about bonds. I'm super financially conservative and don't invest at all so don't know much about this stuff.
So I have some bonds that my grandpa left me when he died a while back. I sold most of them to pay for grad school, but still have some. I don't really know anything about them other than I get like $1,000 a year check which is cool and they seem to go up and down slightly over the quarters.
Anyhow, my parents are telling me that during major recessions it's likely a lot of these small municipals will file bankruptcy and then all your bonds become $0 and you lose everything, so they're telling me to sell my whole portfolio now before that happens. It's down a little (like $3,000 or something from when they were purchased) and they're paying out at like 3-5% and won't be able to put it into anything right now beyond like 1% online bank. So will lose some money if I dump it all now.
Just looking for second opinions since I know nothing about bonds. I'm super financially conservative and don't invest at all so don't know much about this stuff.
So I have some bonds that my grandpa left me when he died a while back. I sold most of them to pay for grad school, but still have some. I don't really know anything about them other than I get like $1,000 a year check which is cool and they seem to go up and down slightly over the quarters.Unless you're really short on money now I would keep it around. Those type of investments are usually for a longer term.
Anyhow, my parents are telling me that during major recessions it's likely a lot of these small municipals will file bankruptcy and then all your bonds become $0 and you lose everything, so they're telling me to sell my whole portfolio now before that happens. It's down a little (like $3,000 or something from when they were purchased) and they're paying out at like 3-5% and won't be able to put it into anything right now beyond like 1% online bank. So will lose some money if I dump it all now.
Just looking for second opinions since I know nothing about bonds. I'm super financially conservative and don't invest at all so don't know much about this stuff.
Ok never mindI think that sooner or later Trump, the producer of LEGO The Movie and Mitch will clash over the spending.QuoteSenate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday insisted that flailing state and local governments should be able to “use the bankruptcy route” rather than receive aid from the federal government — signaling renewed opposition to a top Democratic demand for the next coronavirus relief package.
In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, the Kentucky Republican also expressed concern about adding billions more to the national debt in addition to the nearly $3 trillion Congress has already sent out the door to combat the economic and public health challenges of the pandemic.
Mitch and the House Republicans are in this for the long haul. Once they realize that keeping the brrrrr going is like masturbating into a forest fire (rip james) they will opt for more targeted bailouts.
The issue has always been that Germany wants budgetary control and the French want their debt shared.
Neither country wants to bend on those issues so instead the Brussels bureaucrats believe more Europe or rather a Federal Europe is the answer to all their problems which has only distanced them further from the citizens.
The block keeps kicking the can down the road on pretty much all issues until countries decide to have a go at it themselves.
The only way Eurobonds will ever make it is when the EU has a common budget or Germany and others can impose austerity on Italy and France if necessary to balance the books.
Everyone knows that the southern states will never accept such harsh measures such as a higher retirement age (France is 62, Netherlands 68) and dealing with the 'grey' markets.
Greece has shown them what budget control from Germany and the Netherlands will look like and they didn't like it.
Especially Italy would lose a living standard that is far above what their economy could actually support if they would meet the current EU spending regulations (let alone if they wanted to balance the books).
That was true before and even more so during the Covid 19 crisis.
[...]https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that
In the April 23-28 Reuters poll of 25 economists Canada’s economy was predicted to have contracted at an annualized rate of 9.8% last quarter and to shrink 37.5% this quarter.
Oil tanking again.
What explains the stock market optimism?
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1257752566479249408
Long ass thread on development and industrialization for Shostait wasn't that long :P although I did read every linked article. I was aware that there's always been a land issue in India but it's nice to see a lot of the relevant pieces in the same thread. on the other hand...
https://twitter.com/dakekang/status/1257709936437592065
That could help Shah. The day trader in Mississauga, Canada, bought his first five contracts for $3.30 each at 1:19 p.m. that historic Monday. Over the next 40 minutes or so he bought 21 more, the last for 50 cents. He tried to put an order in for a negative price, but the Interactive Brokers system rejected it, so he became more convinced that it wasn’t possible for oil to go below zero. At 2:11 p.m., he placed that dream-turned-nightmare trade at a penny.
It was only later that night that he saw on the news that oil had plunged to the never-before-seen price of negative $37.63 per barrel. What did that mean for the hundreds of contracts he’d bought? He frantically tried to contact support at the firm, but no one could help him. Then that late-night statement arrived with a loss so big it was expressed with an exponent.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/oil-crash-busted-a-broker-s-computers-and-inflicted-huge-lossesPoor jamesQuoteThat could help Shah. The day trader in Mississauga, Canada, bought his first five contracts for $3.30 each at 1:19 p.m. that historic Monday. Over the next 40 minutes or so he bought 21 more, the last for 50 cents. He tried to put an order in for a negative price, but the Interactive Brokers system rejected it, so he became more convinced that it wasn’t possible for oil to go below zero. At 2:11 p.m., he placed that dream-turned-nightmare trade at a penny.
It was only later that night that he saw on the news that oil had plunged to the never-before-seen price of negative $37.63 per barrel. What did that mean for the hundreds of contracts he’d bought? He frantically tried to contact support at the firm, but no one could help him. Then that late-night statement arrived with a loss so big it was expressed with an exponent.
:lol :lol :lol
So I was talking to a couple of friends - one is a chemical engineer and the other does traffic analysis - and the most amazing thing to me is that the work that's really most likely to die soon isn't unskilled work, it's white collar stuff. They both agreed without any hedging that their entire department could be completely automated. These are people with challenging jobs and a few years of experience. Can you guys imagine 75% of engineering jobs just disappearing? And being replaced by ML technicians with domain training. It's just crazy.
Yeah, my gut feeling is that anything which is an "art" is safe, but things which are fundamentally algorithmic but take a lot of years of training to do competently are vulnerable in the near future.
So I was talking to a couple of friends - one is a chemical engineer and the other does traffic analysis - and the most amazing thing to me is that the work that's really most likely to die soon isn't unskilled work, it's white collar stuff. They both agreed without any hedging that their entire department could be completely automated. These are people with challenging jobs and a few years of experience. Can you guys imagine 75% of engineering jobs just disappearing? And being replaced by ML technicians with domain training. It's just crazy.
You guys are seriously overestimating the usefulness of current ML tech.
you guys are bullying me because it sounds like I don't understand the primary function of the state in capitalism :ragehttps://twitter.com/Stephaniejing2/status/1262183452255719425
The thing that's just fucking killing me every day is the total absurdity of the present situation, an absurdity that goes even farther than that demanded by its principal actors. Local acts of rationality summing up to the pursuit of irrational ends. There couldn't be anything more kafkaesque.
it's one thing to read a description of the world and another to sit past the event horizon and have your ego torn apart in a million different directions as psychic annihilation destroys society in a chorus of screams
Georgia’s early move to start easing stay-at-home restrictions nearly a month ago has done little to stem the state’s flood of unemployment claims — illustrating how hard it is to bring jobs back while consumers are still afraid to go outside.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits have remained so elevated that Georgia now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance. A staggering 40.3 percent of the state's workers — two out of every five — has filed for unemployment insurance payments since the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread shutdowns in mid-March, a POLITICO review of Labor Department data shows.
Georgia's new jobless claims have been going up and down since the state reopened, rising to 243,000 two weeks ago before dipping to 177,000 last week. The state cited new layoffs in the retail, social assistance and health care industries for the continued high rate of jobless claims that have put it ahead of other states in the proportion of its workforce that has been sidelined.
Georgia, which began pushing to resume economic activity on April 24, presents an early reality check as the White House amps up pressure on governors to lift shutdown orders and President Donald Trump’s economic advisers predict jobless claims will nosedive after the reopening. The state’s persistent unemployment numbers suggest that government restrictions aren’t the only cause of skyrocketing layoffs and furloughs — and that the economy might not fully recover until consumers feel safe.
Georgia, one of the last states to impose widespread shutdowns, has loosened restrictions on a broad array of businesses and dine-in restaurants since its stay-at-home order officially expired on April 30. Only bars, nightclubs, theaters, live music venues and amusement parks remain fully shuttered through the end of May.
.
https://twitter.com/dickophrenic/status/1263458506948182016I bet mall mortgages are amazing, I've never thought about them before now.
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1264968234417238017These people are very uncreative.
Fireworks sparked Wednesday morning on the Squawk Box set as CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin blasted his own colleague Joe Kernen for dismissing the severity of the coronavirus pandemic that has now killed 100,000 Americans. At one point, Sorkin accused Kernen of trying to help his “friend” President Donald Trump “every single morning.”https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnbc-anchor-andrew-ross-sorkin-explodes-at-pro-trump-colleague-joe-kernen-you-abused-your-position
As the two discussed the recent stock-market gains, the segment grew increasingly heated as Kernen openly bashed Sorkin and “other smart people” for not being able to see why the market is rising despite the current poor state of the economy.
“Joe, you missed it a hundred percent on the way down and you missed 100,000 deaths,” Sorkin snapped back. “So we can have this debate back and forth and you can try to question the questions I’m asking.”
Kernen attempted to talk over Sorkin, prompting the usually mild-mannered business host to angrily interject.
“Hold on, hold on,” Sorkin shouted. “I’m not going to do this with you Joe! Every morning, you try to question the questions I’m asking—these are questions investors are asking every single morning. I’m just trying to get through some of this clutter. I may be right or wrong. Investors may be right or wrong. That’s what makes the market. It doesn’t make people good or bad or right to act the way you are. I’m sorry.”
After a dramatic sigh, Kernen began chiding Sorkin for scolding him as well as lecturing others over the pandemic, causing Sorkin to wave him off and tell him to read the news.
“I’m sorry?” Kernen asked, prompting an incensed Sorkin to exclaim: “No you’re not. No you’re not!”
At this point, Kernen began running down all the things his colleague “panicked” over, such as the virus itself, ventilators, and personal protection equipment, causing Sorkin to lose it.
“Joseph, you didn’t panic about anything,” he shouted as Kernen objected. “One-hundred thousand people died. One-hundred thousand people died, Joe, and all you did was try to help your friend, the president—every single morning on this show. You abused your position!”
Kernen, one of the few non-Fox hosts Trump grants interviews to, claimed Sorin was being “unfair” and that all he’s been trying to do is help “investors keep their cool and keep their heads, and as it turned out that’s what they should have done.”
“Do the news,” Sorkin growled back. “I was not arguing to go sell your stocks, Joseph! I was arguing about people’s lives. Do the news, I’m begging you to do the news, Joseph!”
Kernen, before getting to the news, got in the last word, saying the number of American deaths was terrible “but it was never going to be that we weren’t going to come back and return to normal,” insisting he wasn’t “trying to help Donald Trump.”
I don’t see the case for a multiyear depression.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -51.2 percent on May 29
https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1268900842381475840:dead
if only we had a UCLA grad/econ titan to explain all this for us.
https://twitter.com/ftworldnews/status/1269917825633865728Strange, in the Netherlands car sales are up :thinkingQuoteWorse may still be to come after German factory orders plunged 25.8 per cent in April, the largest-ever monthly decline and almost double the previous record set only the month before.
Figures released on Thursday showed car sales in Germany halved in May, in comparison with the same month last year, despite car dealerships having been open since the end of April. Total car production in the first five months of the year fell to lows not seen since 1975.
https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.htmlMoney sent.
Alright Flannel Boy, you lost.
You should have just killed yourself to get out of paying like James did :tocryWhat happened to him? Did he lose all his money or did he make a boatload and is self-quarantined on a mega yacht now?
https://twitter.com/jsmauro13/status/1270415543657529350 (https://twitter.com/jsmauro13/status/1270415543657529350)
Weekly jobless claims stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hammer the U.S. economy.
First-time claims totaled 1.5 million last week, higher than the 1.3 million that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting. The government report’s total was 58,000 lower than the previous week’s 1.566 million, which was revised up by 24,000.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/06/17/20-year-old-robinhood-customer-commits-suicide-after-seeing-a-730000-negative-balance/#50a3440f5928
(https://imgur.com/NErB7Ex.jpg)
20 year old kid kills himself over an interface miscommunication. He thought RH leveraged him a million dollars, when he put on a trade with 2 legs that expired at different times. When the losing end expired, it only showed the uncompensated loss. He was going to be credited the other end if he simply waited a few more days, and only be indebted to the initial cost of the trade that he agreed to before he jumped in. He had no idea. What a tragic waste.
RobinHood should really not post one leg of the debt until the complete trade is over to avoid this. They're well aware they have a lot of new traders on their platform.
WASHINGTON — An unprecedented expansion of federal aid has prevented the rise in poverty that experts predicted this year when the coronavirus sent unemployment to the highest level since the Great Depression, two new studies suggest. The assistance could even cause official measures of poverty to fall.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/us/politics/coronavirus-poverty.htmlThank you Mr. Trump :saluteQuote from: New York TimesWASHINGTON — An unprecedented expansion of federal aid has prevented the rise in poverty that experts predicted this year when the coronavirus sent unemployment to the highest level since the Great Depression, two new studies suggest. The assistance could even cause official measures of poverty to fall.
Too bad it's ending in July :smughttps://twitter.com/JoeStGeorge/status/1275101144210182145 (https://twitter.com/JoeStGeorge/status/1275101144210182145)
Grants
Gift from Charles Koch Foundation to support Program in Corporate Welfare Studies, March 2017, $251,000
Gift from Troesh Family Foundation to support Program in Corporate Welfare Studies, December 2017, $150,000
Gift from Charles Koch Foundation to support Program in Corporate Welfare Studies, February 2018, $445,000
Gift from Troesh Family Foundation to support Program in Corporate Welfare Studies, October 2018, $240,000
Gift from Troesh Family Foundation to support Program in Corporate Welfare Studies, January 2019, $130,000
In Travis County, which includes Austin, eviction courts reopened June 2, and soon Williams was hearing the case of the renter who owed more than $4,000. During the hearing, the judge was asked whether the renter might be covered by the moratorium, which doesn’t expire until late July. But Williams shrugged off the question. (The Washington Post viewed the hearing online.)absolutely kafkaesque cruelty
“I am not familiar with that, but if someone will show me the law on that, I will certainly entertain that,” she responded. “Right now, I am going to give them the eviction … as unfortunate as it is.”
you are one of the most cringe posters on this entire forum
So my gf moved to LA and is living with two other girls.Once they learn of the james fund all three will move back in with you :biden
They are both unemployed due to corona. If the $600 weekly thing isnt renewed, they wont be able to make rent.spoiler (click to show/hide)do you think shell move back in with me[close]
James, why didn’t you tell us the failing New York Times was writing a story about you?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/technology/robinhood-risky-trading.html
“I don’t know if we will reach an agreement,” said Merkel. “It is still not sure and the path remains long.”
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte - the key hawkish figure in the talks - has insisted on enshrining economic reforms as conditions for accessing the funds, something the south wants to avoid.:mynicca
“It’s not in anybody’s interests to introduce conditionality that would compromise the support of the programme or give it scarce practical impact,” Conte said.:holeup
ADP Canada National Employment Report: Employment in Canada Increased by 1,042,900 Jobs in June 2020
The May total of jobs added was revised from 208,400 to -2,951,400.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Almost 100 days ago, California Gov. Gavin Newsom tapped Apple’s Tim Cook, Disney’s Bob Iger, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and scores of other business and labor luminaries to chart the state’s economic recovery.
The public is still waiting for a road map.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/07/24/newsom-economic-task-force-has-star-studded-cast-why-cant-it-solve-the-reopening-1303132spoiler (click to show/hide)SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Almost 100 days ago, California Gov. Gavin Newsom tapped Apple’s Tim Cook, Disney’s Bob Iger, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and scores of other business and labor luminaries to chart the state’s economic recovery.
The public is still waiting for a road map.
Top California leaders from across the fifth-largest economy in the world were supposed to "craft ideas for short, medium and long-term solutions" for a fast — but also safe — recovery. Critics say the public has largely been kept in the dark, while California fumbled its reopening this spring to the point that the state had to shut down major industries again and can't open schools this fall.
Other countries are taking nationwide approaches to confronting coronavirus and reopening, but the U.S. has left those decisions primarily to states and left them with little guidance. Events are overtaking state task forces as the accelerating disease tables their ideas until their governments can get a better handle on the problem. Elsewhere, political disputes have stymied reopening recommendations; New York City scrapped its first task force for being too white and pro-business, and its current panel has not yet issued recommendations.
And if California's top minds are struggling to save the fifth-largest economy in the world from despair, it underscores how impossible a problem America at large is facing.
“The big question is, 'What’s our plan?’” said Rachel Michelin, president of the California Retailers Association. "It just feels like we should have a plan, and we’re just throwing things against a brick wall."
The governor’s group includes “a lot of great names and a lot of very talented people,’’ Michelin said, but the group feels rudderless. Other critics decry that the public has largely been kept in the dark about what the panel is discussing or how its members have influenced key decisions by the administration, such as how quickly to reopen.
“I don’t think it’s appropriate that three months later we still don’t know what they’re working on,” said state Sen. Melissa Melendez (R-Lake Elsinore), who asked on Twitter last week if the group was “just a campaign donor list” or if it had accomplished anything. “It leads the average person to believe this is a do-nothing task force, which I hope is not the case.”
Newsom has made some pivotal decisions to reopen — and reclose — dating back to May, but it's unclear how much of them have stemmed from the task force versus his own inner circle of advisers and health experts. The governor allowed a broad range of sectors to reopen starting in May, from malls to bars to gyms, all with guidance released by the California Department of Public Health. He did not impose a mask mandate until mid-June as problems grew more severe.
Health experts increasingly blame California's scale of reopening for the state's surge of infections that has again turned the state into a Covid-19 hotspot, with 423,000 known cases and more than 8,000 deaths. Newsom this month shut down businesses such as bars, gyms and restaurant indoor dining across the state.
Critics say that the fumbled reopening is leading to another round of job losses and forcing small businesses to shutter because they cannot survive an unpredictable pattern of opening and closing. The unexpected surge also has a consequence that could loom larger this fall: Nearly all of California's schools will start the year in full distance learning, putting another restraint on working parents, some of whom are considering reducing hours or leaving their jobs to care for their children.
In interviews this week, task force co-chairs Steyer and Ann O'Leary, Newsom's chief of staff, said the group advised the governor on a wide range of issues, including the reopening plan, as well as longstanding economic and social inequities laid bare by the pandemic.
O’Leary acknowledged an unprecedented challenge in navigating the concerns of both the California’s diverse business community and health officials.
“We feel very good about the metrics we were using to reopen,’’ said O’Leary, but added that if the administration could have done one thing differently, it would have been to implore Californians not to go back to the way they were living before the pandemic. "They needed to wear masks, they needed to keep social distancing, they needed to do as much as they could,’’ she said. “We didn't do enough of that messaging — and as a result, collectively, in California we didn't do as well as we could have.’’
O'Leary provided POLITICO a list of five subcommittees and their rosters. The smaller groups are focusing on such topics as climate change and innovation; banking and housing; workforce equity and food insecurity; the economic recovery; and small businesses. She and Steyer meet regularly with them, she said, as does the governor on a biweekly basis.
“Let me just be really clear," O'Leary said. "This task force really is about getting some of the smartest minds, who are experts, helping us problem solve on a really big economic issue of the day."
Iger and other powerful CEOs are on task force calls every week, according to the governor's office. Newsom has discussed the closure and reopening of Disneyland with Iger, and those talks have been credited with slowing down the amusement park's activities.
Steyer said the group provided Newsom with valuable “real-world” information as the administration developed reopening protocols.
“We have been advising him on the decisions that have anything to do with the economy from day one,’’ Steyer said, including “what can happen and what different things mean’’ in different economic sectors.
The task force also has pressed Congress for more state and local emergency aid; supported a public-service-announcement campaign to promote the use of face coverings; and, with tech-connected industry leaders, brainstormed ways to help Newsom with “closing the digital divide” as distance learning extends into the fall, he said.
“We’re talking to them directly about the urgency to support the kids of California," Steyer said.
Armando Elenes, secretary-treasurer of the United Farm Workers, said the labor union hopes the panel will lead to improvements in health care for agricultural workers, many of whom lack access to affordable care because of their legal status, yet continue to work in the essential industry. The organization's president, Teresa Romero, is on the task force.
"They’re diving into the big issues and they’re talking about tackling the big problems," Elenes said of the group.
But Rob Lapsley, head of the California Business Roundtable, said the task force has been too insular and has not provided the transparency that the public and state business leaders deserve.
Newsom also drew criticism for naming Steyer as chair of his task force, not long after the billionaire Democrat ended his presidential campaign built on assailing President Donald Trump and promoting environmental endeavors.
Lapsley said it's essential that the state disclose any potential conflicts between the task force and Steyer’s nonprofit organization, NextGen, a group dedicated to slowing climate change and addressing income inequality.
“NextGen is staffing a lot of the task force,’’ he said. “They are a political advocacy organization. So that's another question: How does that work? Because they are advocating for policies that you know are impacting a huge sector of our economy — particularly good paying jobs like the energy sector.’’
Steyer said — and O'Leary confirmed — that he’s not getting paid for his work on the task force. He said the involvement of his nonprofit staffers was intended only to help fast-track the task force’s work, “so we can get things done and get information organized as quickly as possible.” He insisted he’s tried to be transparent about the task force's work — saying that he has made himself widely available to media and has “done over 50 interviews” to answer questions and offer details about the committee’s work.
O’Leary and Steyer worked together years earlier. In 2011, the governor’s chief of staff was named senior vice president with NextGen.
Rob Stutzman, a strategist and former adviser to Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who launched his own task forces on reinventing state government and overhauling the tax structure, said the group is too large and unwieldy to reach consensus on many bold ideas. Stutzman said he is not surprised that the public has not received concrete timelines or details about its work.
“To me it was in a pattern of a lot of things the governor did early on in the pandemic — making these vast sweeping announcements about large substantial efforts,” he said. “There was a real kind of obsession with `We lead by announcing big, bold efforts,’ and then in executing those efforts, the execution hasn’t met the magnitude of the announcements.”
Stutzman also called Steyer’s appointment “a huge mistake,” arguing that Californians see him as a national politician, rather than a businessperson. But, he said, Newsom's political career could benefit from the relationship.
O'Leary said Steyer was chosen because he is "an incredible doer. He gets things done, and he’s dogged in his approach to doing it.’’
Given the magnitude of the crisis, she said, the administration simply needed advice. “I mean, no one has ever in the history of California, the United States government, closed down the entire economy and tried to reopen it again."[close]
Oops
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever
Restaurant owner Cameron Mitchell likens the pandemic to a hurricane.
Canada’s economy recorded a third straight month of strong employment gains that have recouped more than half of losses from Covid-19.
Employment rose by 418,500 in July, bringing to 1.7 million the number of jobs reclaimed over the past three months. Canada lost 3 million jobs in March and April at the height of the pandemic. The employment rebound in Canada has outpaced the U.S., which has recovered 42% of its payroll losses.
"The market is pricing in a [coronavirus] vaccine by Labor Day as well as endless fiscal and monetary stimulus. We have so many positive data points priced in that if we don't get them, markets could go down," said David Rosenberg, a longtime analyst now running his own firm, Rosenberg Research.
A new report confirms what many have been talking about for weeks: There is a mass exodus out of San Francisco, and the numbers are staggering.
Online real estate company Zillow released new statistics shining a stark light on the issue this week. Their "2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report" reveals that inventory has risen a whopping 96% year-on-year, as empty homes in the city flood the market like nowhere else in America.
https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1294733182366031876
https://twitter.com/BadEconTakes/status/1295463695422648320
New York
Residents of the Empire State will not be eligible to receive the extended unemployment benefits as Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) confirmed he will not apply for the aid.
“You cannot get water out of a stone, that is a fact and we have a $14 billion deficit, and we can’t pay for it,” Cuomo said in an interview with WHEC-TV on Wednesday.
He also expressed his disdain for FEMA, stating that “I'd rather do business with the old time bookie on the street corner than do business with FEMA”.
https://twitter.com/accidental_left/status/1296873390930788355
(https://grrrgraphics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/trump_stock_market-1-1024x781.jpg)This is it, this is the entire Republican platform perfectly captured in one image.
But even if more recruits start entering teacher preparation programs, they could end up with nowhere to go by next spring.
The country’s deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression has yet to hit most school districts, according to data compiled by the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University. Fewer than a third of the 302 districts Edunomics researchers tracked had issued pink slips as of mid-August, and the ones that had gone out were often for nonteaching positions.
But Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab, said teacher layoffs may dominate headlines over the next several months as districts spend down their cash reserves and states start axing their budgets.
“I actually think it could be as early as late fall – depending on when we get some clarity on federal money,” Roza said.
During the last recession, between 2008 and 2010, public schools shed more than 120,000 teaching positions, according to school finance expert Michael Griffith of the Learning Policy Institute. It would have been worse if the federal government had not extended nearly $100 billion in aid to schools: An additional 275,000 education jobs could have been lost.
A new report by the Pew Research Center found that a majority of young adults -- 52% -- lived with one or both of their parents in July. Pew's analysis of monthly Census Bureau data notes that this is higher than any previous measurement.
"Before 2020, the highest measured value was in the 1940 census at the end of the Great Depression, when 48% of young adults lived with their parents," says the report, published Friday. "The peak may have been higher during the worst of the Great Depression in the 1930s, but there is no data for that period."
Pew defines young adults as 18- to 29-year-olds. The number of young adults living with parents grew to 26.6 million in July, an increase of 2.6 million from February, Pew said.