WiiU Sales Prediction Thread

[Cerveza mas fina]

Let it be set in stone.

Year 1: 9 miilion
Year 2: 7 million
Year 3: 6 million
Year 4: 4 million
Year 5: 4 million

Total sales after 5 years: 30 million

[archnemesis]

Year 1: 8 miilion
Year 2: 15 million (price drop combined with new peripheral gimmick)
Year 3: 12 million
Year 4: 10 million
Year 5: 8 million

Total sales after 5 years: 53 million

[ToxicAdam]

As a general rule, a console will sell at least 50 percent of what the previous console did.

Even an absolute disaster like the PS3 is still going to limp in at about 50 percent of what the PS2 did. So, I think it will be able to hit about 48 million after the 5 year mark, since the wii sold about 90 million after 5 years.

8/12/10/9/9

[archnemesis]

Are you expecting Vita to reach 37 million?

[Eel O'Brian]

3.7 million

[archnemesis]

Even that seems a bit too high.

[Great Rumbler]

Year 1: 90 miilion
Year 2: 70 million
Year 3: 60 million
Year 4: 40 million
Year 5: 40 million

Total sales after 5 years: 300 million

[Joe Molotov]

I predict that it will sell a billion copies and I still won't care.

[Human Snorenado]

Year 1: 8.5 million
Year 2: 11 million
Year 3: 8 million
Year 4: 7 million
Year 5: 6 million

5 year total: about 40 million

[cool breeze]

$10.6 Million total.

I mean, $64 Billion total. 

[D3RANG3D]

20-40 million tops

spoiler (click to show/hide)

There are about that many children/manchildren aka ninthings in this world.

[close]

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Since Gamecube sold about 25 million units, I'd say Wii U will sell somewhere between 30-35 million units.

Tablet technology is moving fast - people in 2015 aren't going to fuck with Nintendo's half assed tablet with its numerous limitations that don't even cut it in 2012.  Even the most basic shitty tablet will be light years beyond what Nintendo is proposing to charge for one of these things.  The only people who are going to get this piece of crap are hardcore Nintards, people with more money than sense, and people who will just buy all of the consoles anyway.  Maybe Nintendo will actually start putting some effort into game development.  Maybe they will start to develop strong new IPs that aren't just exercises in lowering the bar for their next unambitious title.  Doubtful but you never know.  You'd probably have to get rid of Reggie first.

[Eel O'Brian]

slight boost in sales when Gamepad + comes out in 2014 (multi-point touch, analog triggers, etc)

[Cerveza mas fina]

Kindle Fire HD , Nexus 7.

I think parents would sooner get their kids these then the Nintendo WiiU.

slight boost in sales when Gamepad + comes out in 2014 (multi-point touch, analog triggers, etc)

That would be hilarious if they did that, which means they probably will 

[maxy]

Not predicting anything until I see how the launch/post launch goes simply because I have no clue/info is too confusing.

Never underestimate Nintendo.

[ToxicAdam]

Are you expecting Vita to reach 37 million?

I don't consider vita a console.

[Sho Nuff]

Not predicting anything until I see how the launch/post launch goes simply because I have no clue/info is too confusing.

Never underestimate Nintendo.

This. After a few hours of hands-on I'm like "Absolutely no way" but Nintendo defies logic every time

[ManaByte]

[Tasty]

Since Gamecube sold about 25 million units, I'd say Wii U will sell somewhere between 30-35 million units.

Tablet technology is moving fast - people in 2015 aren't going to fuck with Nintendo's half assed tablet with its numerous limitations that don't even cut it in 2012.  Even the most basic shitty tablet will be light years beyond what Nintendo is proposing to charge for one of these things.  The only people who are going to get this piece of crap are hardcore Nintards, people with more money than sense, and people who will just buy all of the consoles anyway.  Maybe Nintendo will actually start putting some effort into game development.  Maybe they will start to develop strong new IPs that aren't just exercises in lowering the bar for their next unambitious title.  Doubtful but you never know.  You'd probably have to get rid of Reggie first.

Lol what does Reggie have to do with new IPs?

Miyamoto is hands-off now and has set up a couple "small" teams in the company to make games like Pushmo. I think we'll see a lot more new IP's from Nintendo this gen than in the past two (which already did have new IP's, just not ones gamers really pay attention to.)

[archnemesis]

da fuq?

A lot of people consider handhelds to be in some special non-console category.

[Beezy]

Year 1: 90 miilion
Year 2: 70 million
Year 3: 60 million
Year 4: 40 million
Year 5: 40 million

Total sales after 5 years: 300 million

[Oblivion]

Even the Gamepube got ~20 million units, so I expect Wii-U will do that, minimum. But I don't expect the final number to be "that" much higher, probably ~30-35 million at the end of the day.

Even if you absolutely despised the Wii, it was pretty clear that it had a metric fuckton of hype surrounding it, and one could see the possible appeal it may have to casual players. Wii-U has neither of those things, however. I mean, it's almost impressive at how mediocre this thing is.

[Don Flamenco]

Are you expecting Vita to reach 37 million?

Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale comes out next week.  People are gonna go insane over all those memorable mascots in one fighting game.

[archnemesis]

 

[ManaByte]

Even the Gamepube got ~20 million units, so I expect Wii-U will do that, minimum. But I don't expect the final number to be "that" much higher, probably ~30-35 million at the end of the day.

Even if you absolutely despised the Wii, it was pretty clear that it had a metric fuckton of hype surrounding it, and one could see the possible appeal it may have to casual players. Wii-U has neither of those things, however. I mean, it's almost impressive at how mediocre this thing is.

It's $350 for the same games you probably already have on the 360 or PS3 and with a new Xbox and PS coming really soon; the thing is going to crater.

[Trurl]

Even the Gamepube got ~20 million units, so I expect Wii-U will do that, minimum. But I don't expect the final number to be "that" much higher, probably ~30-35 million at the end of the day.

Even if you absolutely despised the Wii, it was pretty clear that it had a metric fuckton of hype surrounding it, and one could see the possible appeal it may have to casual players. Wii-U has neither of those things, however. I mean, it's almost impressive at how mediocre this thing is.

Weren't you a fan of the Gamecube? 

I was.  Why have you forsaken your brethren, Oblivion?

[Tasty]

Even the Gamepube got ~20 million units, so I expect Wii-U will do that, minimum. But I don't expect the final number to be "that" much higher, probably ~30-35 million at the end of the day.

Even if you absolutely despised the Wii, it was pretty clear that it had a metric fuckton of hype surrounding it, and one could see the possible appeal it may have to casual players. Wii-U has neither of those things, however. I mean, it's almost impressive at how mediocre this thing is.

This must be the 100th time I've read a post exactly like this.

If Nintendo could turn 3DS around and kick Sony's ass even harder than last gen, they can turn anything around.

Posted  from my Wii U.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Even the Gamepube got ~20 million units, so I expect Wii-U will do that, minimum. But I don't expect the final number to be "that" much higher, probably ~30-35 million at the end of the day.

Even if you absolutely despised the Wii, it was pretty clear that it had a metric fuckton of hype surrounding it, and one could see the possible appeal it may have to casual players. Wii-U has neither of those things, however. I mean, it's almost impressive at how mediocre this thing is.

This must be the 100th time I've read a post exactly like this.

If Nintendo could turn 3DS around and kick Sony's ass even harder than last gen, they can turn anything around.

Posted from my Wii U.

Nice try adding the extra space in

[Tasty]

SMF is easy to break, don't blame me.

Posted  from my Wii U.

[MrAngryFace]

What generally happens with me and Nintendo systems is that at the end of each machines life there will be like 10 ish games that I actually wanted out of all the 1st party milking and third party shovelware. WiiU will be different, as it will be 1st party milking and third party AAA games that totally came out 2-3 years ago anyway. I've owned every Nintendo console/handheld at some point i think, though. Im a part of the problem.

[Human Snorenado]

Year 1: 8.5 million
Year 2: 11 million
Year 3: 8 million
Year 4: 7 million
Year 5: 6 million

5 year total: about 40 million

I'd like to redo my projections

Year 1: 7 million
Year 2-5: -5 million

So, about 2 million

[Trent Dole]

I've owned every Nintendo console/handheld at some point i think, though. Im a part of the problem.

I've owned all their home consoles prior to this one and some of the handhelds (I don't even know how you'd divy that up since they iterate on them so goddamn much... I have a ds lite but not a phat or xl or dsi, so have I owned a ds or have I missed on 4 machines ) I'll have one of this thing eventually cause when they feel like it Ninty's first party devs can do some near untouchable shit.

[Stoney Mason]

Other than way less than the Wii I won't venture to toss out any numbers. There definitely seems like a lack of enthusiasm and unique software for this launch though.

[Bocsius]

Other than way less than the Wii I won't venture to toss out any numbers. There definitely seems like a lack of enthusiasm and unique software for this launch though.

I agree with this post.

My intuition based on nothing at all says it will do better than GameCube, but nowhere near as well as Wii. Exactly where it falls between GameCube and Wii, I cannot say.

I'd like to redo my projections

Year 1: 7 million
Year 2-5: -5 million

So, about 2 million

Plausible.

[DCharlieJP]

Year 1: 4.5 million
Year 2: 2.5 million
Year 3: 1 million
Year 4: 0 million
Year 5: 0 million

Vita'ed total.

[Takao]

More than it deserves to based on the merit of its software library.

[Fifstar]

About 30 - 35 million when it's all said and done.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Soooooooooooo

[archnemesis]

I'm sticking by my 53 million predication.

[Nintendosbooger]

Won't do as poorly as the Gamecube, so I'm predicting N64 range.

Desperate Nintendo is good Nintendo, and I'm anticipating a superb and memorable software catalog for the system when all is said and done. The key will be how Nintendo will handle indie development this generation. The Wii U won't be home of the blockbuster AAA titles, outside of the first party games, so I think Nintendo should try their damnest to make the Wii U hospitable to indie developers - cut their licensing fees, publish some of their games, improve the Wii U OS to make it easier for consumers to try/buy digital indie games, etc.

[Flannel Boy]

Desperate Nintendo is good Nintendo

A desperate Nintendo gave us the wii; a secure Nintendo gave us the NES and SNES.

[Nintendosbooger]

Desperate Nintendo is good Nintendo

A desperate Nintendo gave us the wii; a secure Nintendo gave us the NES and SNES.

Desperate Nintendo gave us the DS. Their best system to date, whose success prompted some complacency in Nintendo and influenced the creation of the Wii. Secure Nintendo created the Wii, IMO.

[DCharlieJP]

Nintendo -with a vision- gave us the DS and the Wii - they both made sense and the strategy behind them made perfect sense and were both expertly executed in the early days. The tail of the Wii's life was poor.

I don't see the vision behind either the 3DS or the WiiU - they just feel a bit too forced on the gimmick front and i think the 3DS is going to start dragging its feet outside of Japan and the WiiU is going to struggle

[Cerveza mas fina]

Nintendosbooger is back 

I always thought you were someones joke account.

[Nintendosbooger]

In the end, I'm sure the Wii U software catalog, in the end, will justify the purchase of the system. In fact, I can't call any of the consoles or handhelds released in recent memory an unworthy purchase, because they've all had enough quality exclusives to validate their respected systems.