US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[Phoenix Dark]

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Afghan officials say there was an explosion outside the Afghan defense ministry causing multiple casualties, as U.S. defense secretary Chuck Hagel visits the country.

Afghan police spokesman Hashmat Stanekzai says an apparent suicide attacker on a bicycle hit the main entrance to the defense ministry around 9 a.m. local time. Officials are still trying to determine the number of casualties.

Hagel was in a meeting at a coalition facility in Kabul and defense officials say he is in a safe location and unharmed. Reporters traveling with Hagel were in a briefing when they heard the explosion, and were moved to a lower floor of the same building. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/suicide-bomb-attack-as-hagel-visits-kabul.php?ref=fpa

[brawndolicious]

It's still pretty early. Back in 2006/2007, Hillary led Obama significantly amongst African Americans.

Obviously Hillary shouldn't have much of a problem against anyone in 2016, barring some economic disaster or major scandal during Obama's final term. Rubio has time to improve his numbers, perhaps by passing immigration reform. Still Hispanics are surprisingly liberal on most issues and I'd expect their votes to mirror that in the future.

Obama wasn't even sworn in as senator until 2007, most Americans hadn't even heard of him. Rubio is as much of a stop superstar right now as he'll ever be before winning the nomination. Plus his actual policies will only push hispanics away.

He won't get white republicans to vote for him in the primaries unless they feel he's a guarantee to get the hispanic vote, which will highlight the fact that he's a Cuban token offering a worse deal on immigration than the other side.

[Phoenix Dark]

Wut. Obama was elected to the US senate in November 2004, and sworn in with the rest of the class in January 2005 

[Joe Molotov]

Plus he'd already won a Grammy by 2006.

[benjipwns]

That keynote he gave at the 2004 DNC was pretty famous.

Anyway, because it's fun to look back at this stuff, here's a mid-Feb 2005 Marist poll:

Hillary Clinton 39%, John Kerry 21%, John Edwards 15%, Joe Biden 5%, Wesley Clark 4%, Russ Feingold 2%, Bill Richardson 2%, Evan Bayh 1%, Mark Warner 1%

Rudy Giuliani 25%, John McCain 21%, Condoleezza Rice 14%, Jeb Bush 7%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Bill Frist 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Mitt Romney 1%, Bill Owens 2%

Hillary Clinton   42%   John McCain   54%
John Kerry   37%   John McCain   55%
Hillary Clinton   47%   Rudy Giuliani   49%
John Kerry   44%   Rudy Giuliani   50%
John Edwards   39%   John McCain   51%
John Edwards   43%   Rudy Giuliani   49%
Hillary Clinton   51%   Condoleezza Rice   43%

Since he's no longer employed at Fox, Dick should use his free time to get his wife to update and re-release this:

[Barry Egan]

that book blows my mind because it means Dick Morris once wrote something prescient.    Rice is doing really well in polling for 2016. 

[Phoenix Dark]

that book blows my mind because it means Dick Morris once wrote something prescient.    Rice is doing really well in polling for 2016.

IE the republican base doesn't know she's a pro choice lesbian?

[Mandark]

Yeah, Rice right now is like Colin Powell circa 1993.  Lots of people recognize her and have a vaguely positive opinion, but she's never run for elected office and holds views at odds with her party.

She's a lot better suited to polling well three years out than for actually getting the nomination.  Though I'd sort of like to see the trainwreck of Limbaugh, O'Reilly et al attacking a semi-credible Condi Rice candidacy while trying (or not) to avoid being outright sexist or racist as they do it.

[Joe Molotov]

Limbaugh's never seen a sexist remark he didn't like.

[brawndolicious]

Wut. Obama was elected to the US senate in November 2004, and sworn in with the rest of the class in January 2005 

I thought he came in during the 2006 democrat wave. TBF, whether it was 2 years or 4 years, he was still very new to the national spotlight and you couldn't expect most people to know who he was until 2008.

[Phoenix Dark]

Wut. Obama was elected to the US senate in November 2004, and sworn in with the rest of the class in January 2005 

I thought he came in during the 2006 democrat wave. TBF, whether it was 2 years or 4 years, he was still very new to the national spotlight and you couldn't expect most people to know who he was until 2008.

He had already written a best selling novel and given one of the more noteworthy speeches in recent times - I'd say he was a lot more well known nationally than Rubio is right now. However Rubio is already leading most early republican primary polls, whereas Obama was considered a long shot in 2006 and 2007; Obama campaigned for a large group of senators/congressmen in 2006 which raised his profile and built up some owed favors that he'd cash in 2008.


The overall point should be that early polls mean nothing at this stage. Rubio's profile will continue to rise, and if he can get immigration reform passed it might increase his standings amongst Hispanics. Republicans continue to overlook the fact that Rubio is Cuban and therefore not guaranteed to appeal to other Hispanics, most of whom are more liberal on all issues.

If immigration reform passes it could also hurt Rubio, depending on how the law is perceived in 2015/2016. Jeb Bush has already turned on the issue, plus it seems like Rand Paul will be the Bachman/Santorum/etc of the next election, pulling all the candidates further right. If the GOP further moves to the right I think Rubio is doomed amongst white Iowans, NHers, etc. If not, perhaps he can survive long enough to make the Florida primary  the deciding factor - where his support for immigration reform will certainly play better.

[mjemirzian]

I thought with the anti-gaf sentiment there'd be more free market types here. Too bad US republicans are so anti-science and socially repressive.

[Human Snorenado]

I thought with the anti-gaf sentiment there'd be more free market types here. Too bad US republicans are so anti-science and socially repressive.

Also, a bummer about all the empirical evidence that shits all over conservative economic beliefs.

Notice I said "beliefs" and not "thoughts" there, because conservatives don't actually think.

[mjemirzian]

I'd like to think Canada is doing things mostly right the last couple years economically. Maybe we're doing things all wrong, but things seem to be going well. I'm having trouble seeing much difference between US Democrats and Republicans.

[Boogie]

I'd like to think Canada is doing things mostly right the last couple years economically.

wait, what?  How the hell is Canada being dragged into this discussion?

Or, put another way, what "things" are Canada doing "mostly right" in the past couple years, especially vis a vis the USA? 

Especially when your post follows one in which AWESOME-O is tearing a strip off the Right's views on Health Care.

If, (as seems apparent), you are right-leaning economically, it seems very odd for you to laud Canada for its economic success.

[Phoenix Dark]

lol Ryan
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/foxs-chris-wallace-grills-paul-ryan-on-his-desire-to-repeal-obamacare-thats-not-gonna-happen/

I figured he'd have to do something ridiculous to make his new budget balance in a decade.

[Mandark]

I thought with the anti-gaf sentiment there'd be more free market types here.

Thank God this forum doesn't define itself (outside one quarantined thread) by its bitterness towards the motherland.

I actually remember a decade ago when the Afghanistan and Iraq wars started.  GAF was by no means anti-war or recognizably liberal at that point.  The war thread was basically a bunch of young guys following the blow-by-blow of the invasion, with a lot of attention paid to all the cool weaponry they were using and just a couple Chomskyites popping in every now and then.  The board gradually started leaning more and more left as time went on.

GAF posters aren't perfectly representative of the general population of course, but I do think it was indicative of how a lot of people my age were shaped by the Bush years.  For all the cliches about being liberal when you're young, I think the Iraq war, the attacks on gay rights, the housing crash, and the general perception that Bush was incompetent really made a large impression.  This wasn't a group of people who were all really adamant about their politics from the start.

[Human Snorenado]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/jury-reaches-verdict-in-trial-of-ex-detroit-mayor-kilpatrick.php?ref=fpb

 

Poor PD

[Joe Molotov]

Who's your favorite Kwame: Kwame Brown or Kwame Kilpatrick?

[Steve Contra]

The black one

[Eric P]

uh this one

[Phoenix Dark]

I've already heard a couple people complaining about the racist justice system sending poor, innocent Kwame to his doom today. Including a lady at the bank who claimed the jury was all white; when I told her it was actually mixed she was like "not every black person is really black" and gave me a suspicious stare.

[ToxicAdam]

Kwame (the rapper) helped kill the high top fade. Once he came out, brothers started doing crazy shit with thier hair and it was all over.

[Mupepe]

I've already heard a couple people complaining about the racist justice system sending poor, innocent Kwame to his doom today. Including a lady at the bank who claimed the jury was all white; when I told her it was actually mixed she was like "not every black person is really black" and gave me a suspicious stare.

uh oh.  you've been outed. 

[Steve Contra]

She's probably already talking about the "cornball" brother she met at the bank.

[Brehvolution]

He'd have gotten off if he had just laundered money to Iran and the Sudan through Mexico.

[Dickie Dee]

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/breitbarted/

[Human Snorenado]

Cooooooold blooooooooded

[Brehvolution]

How many times can you cry wolf before people stop believing?

[Mandark]

Who's your favorite Kwame: Kwame Brown or Kwame Kilpatrick?

Wait, the Kwame Brown who was a terrible disappointment in Washington, DC or the Kwame Brown who was a terrible disappointment in Washington, DC?

[Joe Molotov]

Who's your favorite Kwame: Kwame Brown or Kwame Kilpatrick?

Wait, the Kwame Brown who was a terrible disappointment in Washington, DC or the Kwame Brown who was a terrible disappointment in Washington, DC?

[Great Rumbler]

[Human Snorenado]

FOR THE LOVE OF FUCK

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/george-p-bush-runs-for-texas-office.php?ref=fpb

[Joe Molotov]

Bush/Bush 2016

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

The future President.  Either 2020 or 2024.

[Phoenix Dark]

Sweeney Blum recalls waiting for one rehearsal to start and walking in to find Franken and Jackson mid-argument: “They’re sitting there steaming a little bit, and all of the sudden Al leans forward and says, ‘Victoria, surely as a Christian you care about people’s health care, surely you would believe in that.’ And Victoria says, ‘Well, if people died sooner, people will go to Heaven sooner.’

“And I start laughing because I thought she was being funny, and she says, ‘No. They will meet Jesus sooner.’”

http://www.salon.com/2013/03/10/can_victoria_jackson_return_from_the_fringe/?source=newsletter

 

this can't be life

[Barry Egan]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/03/13/the-morning-plum-no-the-gop-isnt-winning-the-argument-over-sequester/

* 72 percent of Americans, including 74 percent of independents and 81 percent of moderates, disapprove of the Congressional GOP.

* Americans disapprove of the sequester cuts by 53-39; 64 percent say they’ll hurt the economy; 60 percent say they’ll hurt the government’s ability to provide basic services; and 69 percent say they’ll hurt the military.

* Americans hold Congressional Republicans responsible for the sequester cuts by 47-33.

Hmmm, maybe Democrats can actually get the House for 2014.

[benjipwns]

Was this ever posted? 


EDIT: omg

 

Fox News needs to replace Hannity with this woman, then I'd have two of their shows to watch.

[Mandark]

Dana Milbank's column from yesterday's Washington Post is pretty brutal to Paul Ryan's budget.  "Hocus-Pocus" was in the subhead that you don't see online.

It's pretty typical of what you'd read on a liberal blog, but considering the source it's pretty surprising.  Maybe Ryan's assault on his own reputation is finally making headway.

[Brehvolution]

It's hard not to imagine Paul Ryan on tv anymore without a rainbow colored wig, big red nose, and floppy clown shoes.

[Steve Contra]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/14/cpac-defiant-in-obama-era.html

“We realize that we got our butts kicked,” said Hughes, who is a fan of Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. “It was our own Republicans’ fault that we lost,” she said. “We keep putting up moderates.”

I this shit.

[Joe Molotov]

Them dern RINOs and their unwillingness to triple-down on gay bashing fer shure is what cost them the election.

[Mandark]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/14/cpac-defiant-in-obama-era.html

“We realize that we got our butts kicked,” said Hughes, who is a fan of Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. “It was our own Republicans’ fault that we lost,” she said. “We keep putting up moderates.”

I this shit.

You left out the sentence before that

Out in the crowded hallway, broadcasting on the online Tea Party News Network, founder Scottie Hughes injected a note of realism.

Also, notice how it's always formulated as "we nominated a moderate instead of a conservative" rather than "we nominated Mitt Romney rather than [actual alternative candidate X]."  Which one of the actual clowns that was running do they think would have done better?  Santorum?  Bachmann?  Cain?

If that were my party's starting lineup I'd probably still be talking about Reagan too.

[Phoenix Dark]

Of course they won't name a specific candidate who would/could have won, outside of resurrected Reagan of course. Bachman, Cain, etc would have done horrible. I think Santorum would appeal to non-rich people better  than Romney...but he's so far right that it wouldn't matter.

[Brehvolution]

"Conserve away, Mr. Hughes."

Put up your conservatives then you fucks.

[Phoenix Dark]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2013/03/sen_rob_portman_comes_out_in_f.html

This is going to keep happening. Game over for the religious right in <5 years. Technically they've already lost but the SC hasn't made it official yet.

Justice Kennedy 

[Human Snorenado]

Yup, just read that.  As more and more gay people become comfortable enough to speak out about issues, this WILL keep happening.  It's sad that people can't put themselves in another person's shoes until something like this happens in their own family, but kudos to Portman for being human enough to respond in a healthy way.

[benjipwns]

Was that why Portman's VP hype went from zero to 60 and back to zero over a couple days?

It was always fun to tell religious right types that Bush said he was basically in favor of civil unions (even if he tried to be cagey about it) and that Cheney was maybe beyond that. (And I thought the Edwards debate thing was kinda despicable and that Cheney annihilated it perfectly.) And it was always fun to needle some people I know about how Obama has finally evolved to at least Dick Cheney's position. Hope the Supreme Court goes beyond either of them. (Not expecting it at all.)

One of the things I hate about segments of the libertarian family (and it may just be right now because the GOP are battered and they're hanging around trying to pick us up, like our old Dem friends who disappeared around 2009) currently is the whole "we can't allow gay marriage because that expands government benefits." No, equality before the law. Then we can eliminate the laws.

Same thing on immigration. "Can't allow immigration until the welfare state is gone!" "If we let anyone come, the welfare state will collapse!" "It's an invasion they're violating our collective private property rights by crossing the border, the military should repel it!"

But true liberalism is still distinct from conservatism, and there is danger in the two being confused. Conservatism, though a necessary element in any stable society, is not a social program; in its paternalistic, nationalistic, and power-adoring tendencies it is often closer to socialism than true liberalism; and with its traditionalistic, anti-intellectual, and often mystical propensities it will never, except in short periods of disillusionment, appeal to the young and all those others who believe that some changes are desirable if this world is to become a better place. A conservative movement, by its very nature, is bound to be a defender of established privilege and to lean on the power of government for the protection of privilege, if privilege is understood in its proper and original meaning of the state granting and protecting rights to some which are not available on equal terms to others.

[Great Rumbler]

“Instead of cuts that reduce wasteful and duplicative spending, the administration’s politically calculated cuts are targeting facilities like the campground that actually serve as a revenue source for the park,” Thue added. “It appears NPS is just another agency following the White House’s lead in trying to find the cuts that can trigger a press release before looking to internal cost-saving measures that are less newsworthy.”

[Joe Molotov]

"Git yer guberment hands off my medicare!"

[Great Rumbler]

It's almost like deep spending cuts actually have some sort of real world consequences!

Of course they do not, however, it's just the National Parks Service taking a page from the playbook of MAObama and his LIEbral demonrat Chicago New Black Panther socialist Muslim thugs to try and convince people that cuts to government spending actually has any kind of impact on the running of government operated services!

[Brehvolution]

"Git your gubmint hands off my gubmint funded budget!"

[Great Rumbler]

This week:

A new report by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released Thursday found that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, along with other managers, misled investors, dodged regulators and withheld information in an effort to hide trading losses.

Last year:

“You’re obviously renowned, rightfully so I think, as being one of the most, you know, one of the best CEOs in the country for financial institutions,” crooned Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN). “You missed this, it’s a blip on the radar screen.”

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) — a tea party hero — gave Dimon a full pardon. “I really appreciate you voluntarily coming in to talk with us,” he said. “It is important that we talk about things happening in the industry. It helps us as we look forward and, hopefully, it will contribute to best practice scenarios in industry. I appreciate your emphasis on continuous quality improvement. We can hardly sit in judgment of your losing $2 billion. We lose twice that every day in Washington.”

Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) asked Dimon and his firm to be good corporate citizens, if only to avoid complicating conservative free market messaging. “How you managed JPMorgan is the business of your board of directors, your shareholders, but it does have consequences to those of us who believe in the free-market system, its value, its merit. I have the sense and I hope it’s the case that it is a responsibility you understand. [Your] behavior really matters in our ability to be an advocate for a free-market that creates jobs and economic opportunity and allows Americans to pursue the American dream.”

 

[Joe Molotov]

Jamie Dimon's bonus was slashed down to $11.5 million last year, hasn't he been punished enough?

[Joe Molotov]

I have just come from hearing Michele Bachmann talk. She is loud, and very animated, and so relentless in her off the cuff speech (mostly about her children that there simply is no room for applause lines. One of her big points is that we could cure Alzheimer's, experts say, in ten years. It currently costs $170 billion to fight; in the future, she says, it will cost up to $20 trillion. "Why wouldn't you do this", she says of a cure, citing the vast savings of money and life that came from the polio vaccine not all that long ago. "Enough of this false compassion!" from liberals, who apparently do not think of things like these. She says that we could all fund our cars with 23 cents a gallon natural gas, according to the natural gas group she has just met with, but all other policy mentions in her speech both before and after are of cutting taxes, the obvious outrage involved in "taking away money from you that you need!!"

DailyKos' CPAC coverage has been great.

[benjipwns]

Does that waste actually exist?

Depends on who you ask. (There's some people who argue that Medicare "fraud" doesn't exist. It's just an accounting thing.) I can find plenty of "waste" in your personal budget, but you're going to tell me that stuff are necessities or important. And you're going to fight a lot harder to stop me than I will to "correct" you. Even if you agree with me that buying fifteen thousand banana slicers was a bad idea, you still want the money to spend next year.

Just look at stuff in the military budget, you're paying people to produce things the military doesn't want (so they often ship it to other countries) because it's built or stored in certain districts and you can't cut the spending out of the budget even if the program ends because the military still wants to spend the money just not on that thing. (And then you have the dopes in the program who certainly don't want that sweet gig to end and be put to actual work.)

Or look at the shit fit thrown over PBS which is less than 1/10th of 1% of the budget. There were all sorts of people crying that making any cuts would turn inner city kids brains into mush because they wouldn't be able to watch Sesame Street, NOVA, Austin City Limits or that dopey white guy who travels around Europe like an idiot. (Even though basically no major PBS station relies on federal funding as even a quarter of their funding. And many of the shows are profitable or funded on their own.) To ask why we even need government funded entertainment makes you even more of a monster, worse than Isiah Thomas. It only gets worse as the size of the program/entitlement scales up. At a certain point cutting $12 billion here on buildings or $20 billion on duplicate services isn't even worth the trouble since it barely even makes a dent in in the future upward trajectory.

One of the more surreal aspects of the Romney campaign was him standing in front of a big banner that said "CUT THE SPENDING" while he's whining about how Obama has gutted the military budget (by increasing spending but not as fast as "we should") and how he wanted to lock it in at a minimum of 4% of GDP forever.

[Mandark]

One of the things I hate about segments of the libertarian family (and it may just be right now because the GOP are battered and they're hanging around trying to pick us up, like our old Dem friends who disappeared around 2009) currently is the whole "we can't allow gay marriage because that expands government benefits." No, equality before the law. Then we can eliminate the laws.

Same thing on immigration. "Can't allow immigration until the welfare state is gone!" "If we let anyone come, the welfare state will collapse!" "It's an invasion they're violating our collective private property rights by crossing the border, the military should repel it!

:terroristfistbump

(And I thought the Edwards debate thing was kinda despicable and that Cheney annihilated it perfectly.)

To defend my boy Edwards there, what did Cheney's support of gay rights actually amount to?

The Bush administration publicly declared support for a constitutional amendment against gay marriage* and the GOP, by all accounts with the blessing and encouragement of Rove and the White House, got a bunch of anti-gay initiatives on state ballots in 2004.  Forget about abandoning DADT or DOMA or the HIV entrance ban or all the smaller issues LGBT activists wanted progress on.  The Bush administration, the re-election campaign, the GOP, and all the attendant institutions of American conservatism were looking to entrench a shitty system of hetero privilege and leave gays either worse off or at the status quo, and I don't remember a single report that Cheney ever did anything to seriously challenge this.

So Cheney can get all How Dare You Sir That's My Daughter, but for practical purposes his "support" of civil unions seemed to consist of two parts: 1) saying he was for civil unions, 2) jack shit.  I guess it's better than how Strom Thurmond dealt with the political implications of his daughter, but I'm not gonna throw any parades for Cheney.

[benjipwns]

I agree with all that, Bush admin sucked on basically everything, not just gay rights. I meant how Edwards kept bringing up that Cheney has a gay daughter. I just think that's a sleazy debate tactic. Like bringing up Al Gore's son getting arrested for drugs or whatever.

Cheney didn't even get "how dare you sir" he just said "I thank the Senator for his kind words about my family."

I wasn't trying to credit Bush and Cheney for personally supporting civil unions (since I think one side of the debate should be civil unions for all) but we had one of those marriage initiatives at the time that was trying to even ban civil unions and it was just fun to poke the socons with "even Bush/Cheney don't personally support this."

[Oblivion]

 Holy shit, Jonathan Capehart is gay?

[Mandark]

If Gore had been running against a pro-decriminalization libertarian and drug policy was a hot topic during the campaign, I think it would absolutely have been fair game for his opponent to say "your own son has used illegal drugs.  He's lucky that he hasn't been subjected to the draconian punishments our current system gives some offenders.  Surely poor deserve the same treatment as the powerful?"  It's not like the implication was that Cheney had been a bad father by letting his girl grow up to be a lesbian.

Mary Cheney was an adult and was working directly on her father's campaign.  Feels silly having to treat her like she was Chelsea Clinton circa 1993 or something.