Author Topic: US Politics Thread |OT| SAD TRUMP  (Read 2965220 times)

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Tasty

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14460 on: February 14, 2018, 03:46:01 PM »
how many have flipped the other way since trump?

See below post.

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14461 on: February 14, 2018, 03:46:39 PM »
how many have flipped the other way since trump?

Not many.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=2144047916

In party contested races

- 38 seats have flipped from R to D.

- 5 seats have flipped from D to R.


EDIT: Fixed because I can't write.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 04:01:05 PM by Nola »

Brehvolution

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14462 on: February 14, 2018, 03:50:33 PM »
Nola, I think you have those mixed up.  :thinking

If dems only win 1 more seat, I hope it's lyin' ted cruz's.
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Joe Molotov

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14463 on: February 14, 2018, 03:57:58 PM »
I hope Ted Cruz asks Donald Trump to campaign for him, and Donald's like "nah".
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Broseidon

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bent

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14465 on: February 14, 2018, 04:00:10 PM »
Nola, I think you have those mixed up.  :thinking

If dems only win 1 more seat, I hope it's lyin' ted cruz's.

Haha yep. Did that a bit too quickly.

Skullfuckers Anonymous

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14466 on: February 14, 2018, 04:03:48 PM »
Great article from NPR about why it might be a good idea to deport all illegal immigrants from America.
https://www.npr.org/2018/02/13/585398237/

Quote
"Mass deportation of current immigrants would do nothing less than cripple American Christianity for generations to come," says Samuel Rodriguez, who prayed at President Trump's inauguration. "If you deport the immigrants, you are deporting the future of Christianity."

 :preach :preach :preach

etiolate

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14467 on: February 14, 2018, 04:11:08 PM »
Just for future reference

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mattis-says-us-has-no-evidence-of-syrian-use-of-sarin-gas/2018/02/02/109f1750-0829-11e8-aa61-f3391373867e_story.html

http://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-admits-there-was-no-evidence-assad-using-poison-gas-his-people-801542

He was talking about possible Sarin use post-Khan Sheikhoun, prompted by a new series of chlorine attacks by pro-Assad forces.

You conspiracy theorist dipshit ::)

Quote
Last April, the U.S. launched several dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian air base in response to what it called illegal Syrian use of chemical weapons.

Quote
Mattis offered no temporal qualifications, which means that both the 2017 event in Khan Sheikhoun and the 2013 tragedy in Ghouta are unsolved cases in the eyes of the Defense Department and Defense Intelligence Agency.

Quote
There were casualties from organophosphate poisoning in both cases; that much is certain. But America has accused Assad of direct responsibility for Sarin attacks and even blamed Russia for culpability in the Khan Sheikhoun tragedy.

Now its own military boss has said on the record that we have no evidence to support this conclusion.

https://www.rif.org/

check it out


etiolate

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14469 on: February 14, 2018, 04:18:44 PM »
You left out the rest of that quote

Quote
SEC. MATTIS:  That's -- we think that they did not carry out what they said they would do back when -- in the previous administration, when they were caught using it.  Obviously they didn't, cause they used it again during our administration.

And that gives us a lot of reason to suspect them.  And now we have other reports from the battlefield from people who claim it's been used. 

We do not have evidence of it.  But we're not refuting them; we're looking for evidence of it.  Since clearly we are using -- we are dealing with the Assad regime that has used denial and deceit to hide their outlaw actions, okay?


Broseidon

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14470 on: February 14, 2018, 04:23:24 PM »
You left out the rest of that quote

Quote
SEC. MATTIS:  That's -- we think that they did not carry out what they said they would do back when -- in the previous administration, when they were caught using it.  Obviously they didn't, cause they used it again during our administration.

And that gives us a lot of reason to suspect them.  And now we have other reports from the battlefield from people who claim it's been used. 

We do not have evidence of it.  But we're not refuting them; we're looking for evidence of it.  Since clearly we are using -- we are dealing with the Assad regime that has used denial and deceit to hide their outlaw actions, okay?
As I said in my first post, he's talking about recent pro-Assad chemical attacks (which have been chlorine) post-Khan Sheikhoun and whether Sarin was used in those.

So you concede that you were wrong about previous Sarin attacks having not happened and Mattis "admitting" so?
bent

etiolate

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14471 on: February 14, 2018, 04:28:18 PM »
Except the bits about claiming sarin gas for the 2017 bombing attacks and blamign them on Assad.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/26/middleeast/syria-khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack-sarin/index.html

Which you can find all over the web.




By now, you should know what this means for you.








Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14472 on: February 14, 2018, 04:31:36 PM »
It's continually amusing that the guy who still buys into Seth Rich, Crowdstrike, 4chan conspiracies is lecturing about reading comprehension.

Mattis testified that they have no direct evidence of sarin gas used recently. That is a pretty important piece of context. The context is a discussion about the recent activity of the Syrian government. What they have is people on the ground, NGO's, civilians, militia, troops etc. claiming it has been used. For America to confirm that they need to find direct evidence of its recent use.

Quote
Q:  Can you talk a little bit about the chemical weapons that were -- the State Department was talking about just a little bit yesterday, that mentioned chlorine gas?  Is this something you're seeing that's been weaponized or – just give us a sense.

SEC. MATTIS:  It has.

Q:  It has.  Okay.

SEC. MATTIS:  It has.  We are more -- even more concerned about the possibility of sarin use, the likelihood of sarin use, and we're looking for the evidence.  And so that's about all the more I can say about it right now, but we are on the record, and you all have seen how we reacted to that, so they'd be ill-advised to go back to violating the chemical convention.

Quote
Q:  Can I ask a quick follow up, just a clarification on what you'd said earlier about Syria and sarin gas?

SEC. MATTIS:  Yeah.

Q:  Just make sure I heard you correctly, you're saying you think it's likely they have used it and you're looking for the evidence?  Is that what you said?

SEC. MATTIS:  That's -- we think that they did not carry out what they said they would do back when -- in the previous administration, when they were caught using it.  Obviously they didn't, cause they used it again during our administration.

And that gives us a lot of reason to suspect them.  And now we have other reports from the battlefield from people who claim it's been used. 

We do not have evidence of it.  But we're not refuting them; we're looking for evidence of it.  Since clearly we are using -- we are dealing with the Assad regime that has used denial and deceit to hide their outlaw actions, okay?

Q:  So the likelihood was not what your -- you're not characterizing it as a likelihood?  I thought I used -- you used that word; I guess I misunderstood you.

SEC. MATTIS:  Well, there's certainly groups that say they've used it.  And so they think there's a likelihood, so we're looking for the evidence.

Q:  Is there evidence of chlorine gas weapons used -- evidence of chlorine gas weapons?

SEC. MATTIS:  I think that's, yes --

Q:  No, I know, I heard you.

SEC. MATTIS:  I think it's been used repeatedly.  And that's, as you know, a somewhat separate category, which is why I broke out the sarin as another -- yeah.

Q:  So there's credible evidence out there that both sarin and chlorine --

SEC. MATTIS:  No, I have not got the evidence, not specifically.  I don't have the evidence.

What I'm saying is that other -- that groups on the ground, NGOs, fighters on the ground have said that sarin has been used.  So we are looking for evidence.  I don't have evidence, credible or uncredible.

There is nothing wrong being skeptical of whether they will have the prerequisite evidence to justify any potential escalation, but like usual you inject things into stories that there is no evidence for and select only sources that infer your own biases. Ironically your Washington Post piece makes the context of this discussion clear, but you looked past it.

Nintex

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14473 on: February 14, 2018, 04:33:01 PM »
🤴

Broseidon

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14474 on: February 14, 2018, 04:33:51 PM »
Except the bits about claiming sarin gas for the 2017 bombing attacks and blamign them on Assad.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/26/middleeast/syria-khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack-sarin/index.html

Which you can find all over the web.

 :confused

what are you trying to say here?
bent

etiolate

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14475 on: February 14, 2018, 04:37:21 PM »
If you're too dumb to figure out where you fucked up then I can't help you. 

All I'd do is point out what you said and how it was wrong.

I already did this.

I'm not kidding about that reading is fundamental link.

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14476 on: February 14, 2018, 04:38:17 PM »
It's etiolate, he is going to take misleading Newsweek articles that misrepresent context to advance a conspiracy that Syria never dropped chemical weapons even though we have the fucking receipts. Then go on to lecture people about confirmation bias in twenty other threads.

Its pretty simple, Syria used chemical weapons for years, we have seen the direct evidence of that between two administrations, what we do not have, and Mattis's testimony is speaking about, is recent evidence of its use. We have allegations the government find credible enough to investigate, but nothing to corroborate yet.

For someone that takes faith in the Seth Rich conspiracy, you would think etiolate would understand that?

Tasty

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14477 on: February 14, 2018, 04:45:38 PM »
If you're too dumb to figure out where you fucked up then I can't help you.

When you're so woke you won't even discuss what you're woke about

spoiler (click to show/hide)
[close]

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14478 on: February 14, 2018, 04:51:05 PM »


NSFW
spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

I'm sure those dying Syrians just thought it would be a real hoot to go out faking the symptoms of Sarin gas poisoning.

Congrats on uncovering the grand deep state conspiracy. I'm sure Seth Rich is gonna be coming up next for you to add to the win column.

Fucking moron.

Valhelm

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14479 on: February 14, 2018, 04:52:16 PM »
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/joe-manchin-trump-immigration-plan-408981

Quit it with the purity tests, Bernie Bros. All that matters is electing somebody who has a D next to their name.

Joe Molotov

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14480 on: February 14, 2018, 04:55:31 PM »
Except the bits about claiming sarin gas for the 2017 bombing attacks and blamign them on Assad.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/26/middleeast/syria-khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack-sarin/index.html

Which you can find all over the web.

 :confused

what are you trying to say here?

Hillary emailed sarin gas to Syria.
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etiolate

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14481 on: February 14, 2018, 04:56:03 PM »
The claim is that Assad used Sarin on his country

This claim is made to the 2013 attack and the 2017 attack. No evidence of Assad doing it in either, but Assad being responsible is the argument for getting involved.

Quote
The panel is confident that the Syrian Arab Republic is responsible for the release of sarin at Khan Sheikhun on 4 April 2017," the report says, one diplomat told CNN.

The April attack prompted US President Donald Trump to order the US military to launch 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase.

"‎Time and again, we see independent confirmation of chemical weapons use by the Assad regime. And in spite of these independent reports, we still see some countries trying to protect the regime. That must end now," Nikki Haley, US ambassador to the United Nations, said in a statement.

Mattis on the past and present:

Quote
Q:  Can I ask a quick follow up, just a clarification on what you'd said earlier about Syria and sarin gas?

SEC. MATTIS:  Yeah.

Q:  Just make sure I heard you correctly, you're saying you think it's likely they have used it and you're looking for the evidence?  Is that what you said?

SEC. MATTIS:  That's -- we think that they did not carry out what they said they would do back when -- in the previous administration, when they were caught using it.  Obviously they didn't, cause they used it again during our administration.

And that gives us a lot of reason to suspect them.  And now we have other reports from the battlefield from people who claim it's been used. 

We do not have evidence of it.  But we're not refuting them; we're looking for evidence of it.  Since clearly we are using -- we are dealing with the Assad regime that has used denial and deceit to hide their outlaw actions, okay?

Q:  So the likelihood was not what your -- you're not characterizing it as a likelihood?  I thought I used -- you used that word; I guess I misunderstood you.

SEC. MATTIS:  Well, there's certainly groups that say they've used it.  And so they think there's a likelihood, so we're looking for the evidence.
[/b]


Just because you are fighting information in your head, I'll try to organize this for you. There has been chemical attacks. We do not know who is responsible for the attacks. In very weasely ways, we say its Assad but have no evidence of that. We weasel our way into a military action based on this Assad assumption without having evidence. This is why Mattis is so awkward in that answer.

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14482 on: February 14, 2018, 05:08:29 PM »
Your capacity for cognitive dissonance and ability to dig in and not admit mistakes is truly astounding etiolate.

Mattis, in testimony regarding ongoing events in the middle east, is speaking about past uses of Sarin gas. Which he infers as confirmed. He goes on to speak about ongoing allegations of sarin gas use, that the government has not independently confirmed, but allegations from multiple groups are present. This is really not that hard to grasp.

I wonder how the sarin gas ended up in those kids last April? Whats next etiolate, you gonna quote the trustworthy Russian defense ministry that claimed the bombs dropped just magically hit a rebel warehouse with sarin gas reserves, fingerprinted as being from the government, and that was the cause?
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 05:13:20 PM by Nola »

Broseidon

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14483 on: February 14, 2018, 05:28:05 PM »
Strange how these multiple different rebel groups, in very different parts of the country, several years apart, are somehow able to get their hands on binary Sarin, with chemical signatures peculiar to those of government stockpiles (known due to the CW handover deal) and then only ever use it on themselves via munitions used only by pro-Assad forces, and the top secret jets and helicopters that they use exclusively for false flag Sarin ops on themselves and their own communities, and no other purpose.
bent

kingv

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14484 on: February 14, 2018, 05:39:00 PM »
Strange how these multiple different rebel groups, in very different parts of the country, several years apart, are somehow able to get their hands on binary Sarin, with chemical signatures peculiar to those of government stockpiles (known due to the CW handover deal) and then only ever use it on themselves via munitions used only by pro-Assad forces, and the top secret jets and helicopters that they use exclusively for false flag Sarin ops on themselves and their own communities, and no other purpose.


Fuuuuuuuck.... this goes even deeper than I suspected!

shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14485 on: February 14, 2018, 05:43:46 PM »
I'm about to post something and you're all going to hate me even more than you usually do.
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Trent Dole

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14486 on: February 14, 2018, 06:14:46 PM »
Stop engaging shithead and making the thread unreadable ya mooks. :doge
Hi

shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14487 on: February 14, 2018, 06:14:48 PM »
Iraq population:

Syrian population (I couldn't get the y axis to start at 0 for that time frame, but notice the 14% drop from its peak):


Iraq GDP Growth:

Syria GDP "Growth":


Iraq refugees high in 2007 (7 years before ISIS):
2 million (7044 per 100k), 1.7 million displaced
Syria refugees now:
6 million (one third of Syria's current population) and 5 million internally displaced.

Who had the better foreign policy: Obama, or George W. Bush?

Hillary Clinton couldn't get what she wanted in Syria, so she opted for a weapons program to rebel groups. Did that make things better, or worse?
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Nintex

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14488 on: February 14, 2018, 06:26:28 PM »
When yo squad is ready to bomb Baghdad


In retrospect the Iraq war was really a moment of bonding for Americans.

- Bipartisan support (Both the Bushes and Clintons loved the idea)
- Hating against Saddam (Saddam was universally hated)
- Multi-racial support (Condi and Powell were in as well as Cheney and Rummy)
- Against the communists (only Bernie voted against)
- Rich and poor suffered equally (poor because they got shot, rich because they fucked it all up and it blew up their careers and stocks later)
🤴

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14489 on: February 14, 2018, 06:31:41 PM »
lol, no offense, but that is a pretty odd metric to measure foreign policy success.

I have no problem talking about many of the missteps of the Obama administration on foreign policy, but I'm not sure this makes that case in any real way.

On Iraq, its not really that strange that Iraq's economy turned around(in terms of GDP) after decades of crippling sanctions were lifted and we injected billions into their economy to try and (poorly) rebuild the country after an invasion destroyed large pockets of the economic hubs of the country.

Syria is even more bizarre, what exactly would you of proposed the Obama administration do in Syria that would of stopped the emerging Civil War that has led to an enormous refugee crisis and countless deaths? I think the "compared to what" is where I often fail to get good answers that aren't littered with asterisks. So it's why I have had a more difficult time criticizing Obama's handling of that.

I think as we see now in Syria, there really are not a lot of good answers that don't involve major escalation or support of genocide. The former risks both a repeat of Iraq and the potential for even greater escalation as you are butting up against major geopolitical rivals that have vested interest in the governing regime.

« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 06:37:15 PM by Nola »

Nintex

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14490 on: February 14, 2018, 06:38:57 PM »
People who mention the Iraq economy always forget that with one pen stroke Georgie signed away all their debt.
Because loans issued to Saddam weren't valid or something.

The debt of an entire nation, gone.

Assad on the other hand had to lend money from Russia and Iran as well as give away lucrative natural resources to Rosneft and sell weapons to North Korea (an increasingly risky venture).
Putin isn't helping out for free.

The Trump giveth and the Trump taketh away
https://twitter.com/ReutersUS/status/963920814549725184
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 07:03:25 PM by Nintex »
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shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14491 on: February 14, 2018, 07:07:34 PM »
lol, no offense, but that is a pretty odd metric to measure foreign policy success.
Actually, I'm measuring the depth of catastrophe.

Quote
I have no problem talking about many of the missteps of the Obama administration on foreign policy, but I'm not sure this makes that case in any real way.
Such a discussion is totally inconceivable to me because I don't know of anything else Obama did wrong, and especially so wrong. Libya? Crimea? Iran? Korean Peninsula?

Quote
On Iraq, its not really that strange that Iraq's economy turned around(in terms of GDP) after decades of crippling sanctions were lifted and we injected billions into their economy to try and (poorly) rebuild the country after an invasion destroyed large pockets of the economic hubs of the country.
Syria deserves reconstruction, too.

Quote
Syria is even more bizarre, what exactly would you of proposed the Obama administration do in Syria that would of stopped the emerging Civil War that has led to an enormous refugee crisis and countless deaths? I think the "compared to what" is where I often fail to get good answers that aren't littered with asterisks. So it's why I have had a more difficult time criticizing Obama's handling of that.
Don't give weapons to rebel groups if you're not going to guarantee that the Civil War will end because of it. Enforce a no fly zone so that the Syrian air force doesn't terrorize civilians or gas children. Optional: be willing to negotiate with Assad regime so that, in exchange for democratic elections and release of political prisoners and handing over WMDs, UN coalition forces secure country against fundamentalist death cults. And lastly, when the region becomes a giant proxy war for various interest groups who do not have the restraint becoming of civilized nations, be willing to utilize military hegemony and enforce the Pax America by bringing together the various parties and establishing who-gets-what.

Quote
I think as we see now in Syria, there really are not a lot of good answers that don't involve major escalation or support of genocide. The former risks both a repeat of Iraq and the potential for even greater escalation as you are butting up against major geopolitical rivals that have vested interest in the governing regime.
I agree that supporting a genocidal regime is against American interests. But we did not have to flood the region with weapons. We did not have to sit idly by as a dictator shells suburbs indiscriminately with artillery. And where do sectarian militias come from? Where do they get their weapons from? Guns and rockets don't appear out of thin air. The US, and the UN, and civilized nations have a responsibility to not add fuel to the fire and punish actors that do. There were many options. We instead chose the worst thing possible, which was support the "other side" just enough so that there was no government, so that chaos bled into Iraq two years after we withdrew, so that chemical weapons would continue being used against innocent non combatants, so that the worst human tragedy since Rwanda would grace the world and no one did anything except make it worse despite the rest of the world not doing anything else at the time except sitting on its vast wealth and wondering if they'd suffer political consequences if they did the right thing.
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kingv

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14492 on: February 14, 2018, 07:26:18 PM »
Damn, you really DO like Hitchens!

shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14493 on: February 14, 2018, 07:45:33 PM »
He once said, "Show me a single country Kissinger left off better than he found it." I wondered for a long time how the man who dragged Reagan through the mud for Grenada would become among the longest and most vocal supporters of the Iraq War (not just in 2003 but as early as '98). And eventually I realized, not through mental contortion but through simple moral principles, he had been consistent all along. Although I'm sure he was just jealous of Susan Sontag getting her name on a Sarajevo town square.
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Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14494 on: February 14, 2018, 07:57:52 PM »
Quote
Don't give weapons to rebel groups if you're not going to guarantee that the Civil War will end because of it. Enforce a no fly zone so that the Syrian air force doesn't terrorize civilians or gas children. Optional: be willing to negotiate with Assad regime so that, in exchange for democratic elections and release of political prisoners and handing over WMDs, UN coalition forces secure country against fundamentalist death cults. And lastly, when the region becomes a giant proxy war for various interest groups who do not have the restraint becoming of civilized nations, be willing to utilize military hegemony and enforce the Pax America by bringing together the various parties and establishing who-gets-what.

I'd start my critique of Obama with the tepid escalation strategy in Afghanistan. A strategy that Trump seems to have doubled down on. But that is not really relevant.

On Syria, so then you are stuck in the position of genocide or potential regime change with further escalatory potential, which are both not exactly desirable strategies.

On the no-fly zone, here is Susan Rice's comment on that. I think it is a pretty fair counter-argument to the sort of arguments people like Evelyn Farkas were going around talking about during that same time:

Quote
34:34 Charlie Rose: So you look for alternatives and couldn't find them, even though they are.

34:37 Susan Rice: We didn't find suitable alternatives, satisfactory. Of course, there were people advocating for a "no fly."

34:43Charlie Rose: Exactly.

34:44 Susan Rice: So let's talk about that, for example. What would a "no fly" zone have done? The "no fly" zone, the concept was to create a swath of territory, most of the time it was discussed on the northern border of Syria with Turkey, where people could flee the fighting and have relative security, okay. That was the concept. "No fly" zone, however, and, by the way, just to be clear, and try to prevent Assad from using air power, barrel bombs, whatever, against civilians, we could have done that, but it would have been at great cost to the counter ISIL campaign in terms of diversion of assets and resources. We have --

35:25 Charlie Rose: We don't have enough power to do both?

35:27 Susan Rice: We're doing a lot of things in the world simultaneously. And no, the answer is, had we chosen to enforce the significant "no fly" zone, we would have taken assets away from the counter ISIL fight in Iraq and Syria. That's the choice we could have made. It wasn't one we thought was directly serving our proximate interests. Moreover, you can't just have folks, you know, protecting people on the ground through air power in the sky. You need to have somebody on the ground providing that protection. And there wasn't, NATO country, not Turkey, not anybody at that time, willing to provide that kind of protection. So, it was an idea that sounded good in theory, but when you peeled it back and talked about what would it actually entail, what diminution of our support for the ISIL campaign. Who is going to provide the ground force? How many air caps would that require? It didn't end up making sense.

I think that is what I am talking about when I mention asterisk when it comes alternative strategies. The US did not have the coordinating resources to commit, or the commitment from allies, to effectively enforce a no-fly zone from the ground without a diversion or significant and notable escalation of resources. I don't have a problem with people saying that trade-off was perhaps the superior strategy, acknowledging the trade offs and risks that come with that strategy, but to frame it like it is an obvious blunder is a bit disingenuous IMO.

Which gets to you point about UN forces,  its hard to anchor an alternative strategy around cooperation from people that were not providing any significant military cooperation at the time. And Assad had no interest in stepping aside, which is the major part of why this escalated in the first place. Why this continues to be an elusive and difficult thing to figure out IMO. We didn't start the Civil War, and the country was going to be on a path of destabilization with or without our intervention. You had the splitting of the free Syrian Army, that fracturing into ISIS factions, which we were primarily focusing resources on, the emergence of multiple militias and rebel groups. Without any intervention, there is a strong case to be made that Assad and their Russian allies see that as an opening to further bulldoze and engage with the use of illegal chemical weapons and draconian pacification tactics to bring the country under heel.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 08:03:45 PM by Nola »

shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14495 on: February 14, 2018, 08:08:32 PM »
There are a lot of assumptions in that response I fundamentally disagree with but before I respond I want to take the time to reread Leon Panetta's memoir.

RE: the splitting of the FSA, I also want to listen to what Robert Ford had to say about that again, because I remember him being extremely frustrated over our noncommittal and tepid support of them.

EDIT: I like THIS Obama a lot better.
Quote
Out of the blue I asked, “Have you ever read Reinhold Niebuhr?”

Obama’s tone changed. “I love him. He’s one of my favorite philosophers.”

So I asked, What do you take away from him?

“I take away,” Obama answered in a rush of words, “the compelling idea that there’s serious evil in the world, and hardship and pain. And we should be humble and modest in our belief we can eliminate those things. But we shouldn’t use that as an excuse for cynicism and inaction. I take away ... the sense we have to make these efforts knowing they are hard, and not swinging from naïve idealism to bitter realism.”
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 08:37:15 PM by Shostakovich »
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Mandark

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14496 on: February 14, 2018, 09:05:46 PM »
So we've moved on from "okay Iraq was a mistake but that shouldn't ruin Christopher Hitchens' reputation" to apologetics for the war itself.

Cool. Great.

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14497 on: February 14, 2018, 09:12:39 PM »
There are a lot of assumptions in that response I fundamentally disagree with but before I respond I want to take the time to reread Leon Panetta's memoir.

RE: the splitting of the FSA, I also want to listen to what Robert Ford had to say about that again, because I remember him being extremely frustrated over our noncommittal and tepid support of them.

The FSA unquestionably saw a lot of fracturing and desertion, how much to ISIS and how much to other organizations is certainly up for debate, the FSA was paying a pittance, there was reportedly a lot of morale issues midway in, but I guess how much desertion and to where could be contentious? Saying split implies a 50% drop and that was not what I meant to imply. But I don't really think that has a whole lot to do with the points I was trying to make from my side?

I mean you had a conflict that saw roughly 75,000 deaths by the time America really started to intervene on the side of the rebels with actual military support, not just passive aid. Is the argument the fault that we should of unilaterally gone all in at that point? Committed active ground troops to engage and advance the rebels positions? Just not of done anything? I guess on the later their is a callous political argument that like Darfur, if you just refuse to engage at all, history will tend to look past that indiscretion rather quickly. But I am not sure I agree with your argument that if America had just not committed, they would of prevented civilian suffering. The Syrian government was actively losing territory, they were taking heavy loses, even without the aid of American military support, the conflict was seemingly poised to be extremely bloody even without American intervention on that front.

I think at the end of the day you have to look at it on initial principles and philosophy. If you take the assumption that pacifying the humanitarian crisis and the regime's aggressive behavior would take a large number of troops on the ground and long-term commitment to rebuilding the country, similar to Iraq, but with even greater geopolitical risk due to the regimes alliances and commitments, which I think is a fair assumption, the question becomes, are you willing to engage in that? If the answer is no, which it was for the Obama administration, it becomes a lot harder for me to really shame the Obama administration's decisions following that initial stance.

shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14498 on: February 14, 2018, 09:22:12 PM »
Haven't had the chance to read most of this but I want to clarify that I meant split to be synonymous with fracture.
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Brehvolution

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14499 on: February 14, 2018, 09:34:43 PM »
He once said, "Show me a single country Kissinger left off better than he found it." I wondered for a long time how the man who dragged Reagan through the mud for Grenada would become among the longest and most vocal supporters of the Iraq War (not just in 2003 but as early as '98). And eventually I realized, not through mental contortion but through simple moral principles, he had been consistent all along. Although I'm sure he was just jealous of Susan Sontag getting her name on a Sarajevo town square.

Or maybe he just had stock in Halliburton.  :thinking
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curly

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14500 on: February 14, 2018, 09:41:40 PM »
Wonder how Iraqis feel about Bush's foreign policy and if they're better off because of it

Brehvolution

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14501 on: February 14, 2018, 09:44:44 PM »
Uhh...  aren't we greeted as liberators?

spoiler (click to show/hide)
Liberators of ISIS!   :dice
[close]
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curly

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14502 on: February 14, 2018, 09:50:35 PM »
The whole idea is so stupid. Syria was a civil war, in Iraq we were the ones that started the fucking catastrophe. You can't compare them like for like. There wouldn't even be an ISIS without Iraq. You could argue plausibly that there wouldn't have been a Syrian civil war without Iraq.

shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14503 on: February 14, 2018, 09:51:00 PM »
Well, here's Burham Salih, former Kurdish prime minister and also former deputy prime minister of Iraq:
Quote
... for those of us who lived under the tyranny of Saddam Hussein and understand what tyranny means, ... the difficulties of today, the pains of today, and the disappointments of today—and they are very profound, because Iraqis deserve better—these pale in comparison to what we had to endure. ... Then, people had the certainty of the knock on the door late at night, and could possibly end up in a mass grave. Two weeks ago, in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, a new mass grave in which there were some five-six people who were shot. Their families never heard from them since 1988. They were found and they could only be identified by the pajamas they were wearing as they were taken from home. These are the type of stories that my people, my community, had to endure.

[...] In my view—and I say this without equivocation; I say this in Kurdish; I say this in Arabic when I'm in Baghdad—this has been fundamentally a failure of leadership by the Iraqi elite that assumed power after the demise of Saddam Hussein.
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shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14504 on: February 14, 2018, 09:58:42 PM »
The whole idea is so stupid. Syria was a civil war, in Iraq we were the ones that started the fucking catastrophe. You can't compare them like for like. There wouldn't even be an ISIS without Iraq. You could argue plausibly that there wouldn't have been a Syrian civil war without Iraq.
So much of this is wrong. Iraq and Syria were both dictatorships and both of them became embroiled in sectarian civil war. They are absolutely comparable. There wouldn't have been an ISIS without Syria, not Iraq (did you forget where it reached critical mass?). And I shudder to think what Saddam Hussein would have done if Assad's country was falling apart next door.
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curly

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14505 on: February 14, 2018, 10:01:14 PM »
OK let's hear from the Sunnis and Shiites now

Or the hundreds of thousands dead Iraqis

The whole idea is so stupid. Syria was a civil war, in Iraq we were the ones that started the fucking catastrophe. You can't compare them like for like. There wouldn't even be an ISIS without Iraq. You could argue plausibly that there wouldn't have been a Syrian civil war without Iraq.
So much of this is wrong. Iraq and Syria were both dictatorships and both of them became embroiled in sectarian civil war. They are absolutely comparable. There wouldn't have been an ISIS without Syria, not Iraq (did you forget where it reached critical mass?). And I shudder to think what Saddam Hussein would have done if Assad's country was falling apart next door.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 10:19:43 PM by curly »

Mandark

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14506 on: February 14, 2018, 10:02:01 PM »
I remember someone (Daniel Davies?) pointing out circa 2005-6 that Hitchens had gone from "why isn't the media covering all the good news from Iraq?" to "why isn't the media covering the country outside of the Sunni triangle?" to "why isn't the media covering Kurdistan?"

shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14507 on: February 14, 2018, 10:18:19 PM »
OK let's hear from the Sunnis and Shiites now

Or the hundreds of thousands dead Iraqis
I've got the UN polls right here and by 2007 most Iraqis hated American troops. But of course by 2014 the public was split about whether the US should have withdrawn at all! My position is that I think there was serious mishandling of the reconstruction of Iraq, Paul Bremer should be in jail, etc. But I hold out hope that there was a right way to do it.
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curly

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14508 on: February 14, 2018, 10:20:33 PM »
The whole idea is so stupid. Syria was a civil war, in Iraq we were the ones that started the fucking catastrophe. You can't compare them like for like. There wouldn't even be an ISIS without Iraq. You could argue plausibly that there wouldn't have been a Syrian civil war without Iraq.
So much of this is wrong. Iraq and Syria were both dictatorships and both of them became embroiled in sectarian civil war. They are absolutely comparable. There wouldn't have been an ISIS without Syria, not Iraq (did you forget where it reached critical mass?). And I shudder to think what Saddam Hussein would have done if Assad's country was falling apart next door.

We INVADED one and not the other. We were the instigating actor in one and not the other. We started that sectarian civil war. The organization ISIL was born in the Iraqi insurgency. It's capital was in Mosul. It allied itself with Iraqi Sunni tribesmen who felt it was the better alternative to the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad that we made possible. It armed itself with weapons supplied to Iraqi troops by the US, weapons the Iraqis abandoned because the Iraqi army and all institutions of the Iraqi state were a joke, also because we invaded and overthrew the government. That sectarian civil war which we made possible inflamed sectarian tensions across the Middle East, with the help of our allies in the region.

Also how is a poll from 2014 about when the US troops should have withdrawn post-invasion evidence for Iraqi support for the invasion itself.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 10:31:32 PM by curly »

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14509 on: February 14, 2018, 10:41:48 PM »
OK let's hear from the Sunnis and Shiites now

Or the hundreds of thousands dead Iraqis
I've got the UN polls right here and by 2007 most Iraqis hated American troops. But of course by 2014 the public was split about whether the US should have withdrawn at all! My position is that I think there was serious mishandling of the reconstruction of Iraq, Paul Bremer should be in jail, etc. But I hold out hope that there was a right way to do it.

There obviously was a better way to do it. Or at least avoid taking certain actions that were undeniably destructive. But IMO that gets to part of the heart of the problem with the situation altogether. These were people with surprisingly shallow(with a mix of corrupt) ideas on what needs to happen after you have created the philosophical rationalization to justify preventive war and wholesale regime change. And the State Department and the intelligence agencies tried to warn them of their own ignorance, but there was no avoiding their arrogance in it.

And it was already a long response for a place like this, but Syria and Iraq are materially different. Syria, by every metric we have, would be a much more difficult task if you subscribe to all-in commitment to oust Assad, secure the country, and install a democratic system of government.

One of the arguments for why things could of gone better in Iraq under different leadership was because of the unified and initially cooperative military force outside of the loyalist Republican Guard and the largely cooperative Ba'athist bureaucracy. That had you been more sensitive, aware and proactive in the dynamics of those relationships, you could of fostered a much smoother transition and had a lot more resources and trained security forces to deal with a much smaller insurgency of Al Qaeda fighters/Saddam loyalists that would likely not be able to recruit much, if any, Ba'ahists or military forces.  Though to argue myself, the sectarian divisions were always there(which is part of why strongmen were supported to secure often at-odds factions within borders, because they kinda work in that regard, at least temporarily), so there still is a fairly decent probability that those tensions were bound to bloom regardless, and that civil war would still be hard to avoid.

That is really not the case in Syria from everything we have seen. The country is embroiled in a civil war already, tensions that have continued to grow since the Arab Spring, and the divisions run deep, and there is anything but a unifying social and structural fabric to lean on that would make the potential transition a smooth one. So aside from the points others have made about the obvious differences, I think tactically there is a lot more uncertainly and risk in Syria, and likely that is also why(along with geopolitical issues) two administrations, and the military, have now been hesitant to escalate to that sort of strategy.



shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14510 on: February 14, 2018, 10:48:32 PM »
We INVADED one and not the other. We were the instigating actor in one and not the other. We started that sectarian civil war. The organization ISIL was born in the Iraqi insurgency. It's capital was in Mosul. It allied itself with Iraqi Sunni tribesmen who felt it was the better alternative to the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad that we made possible. It armed itself with weapons supplied to Iraqi troops by the US, weapons the Iraqis abandoned because the Iraqi army and all institutions of the Iraqi state were a joke, also because we invaded and overthrew the government. That sectarian civil war which we made possible inflamed sectarian tensions across the Middle East, with the help of our allies in the region.
Its birth is irrelevant if it's just another homegrown terrorist organization. The conditions for it to grow into a real threat to regional security were in the chaos of Syria, not Iraq. I think Obama should have secured a Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq. I think Obama should have done more to make Iraq respect its Sunni population. I think Biden was probably right that the Sunnis should have been given their own autonomous region with guaranteed 20% profits from oil. I also think there was a critical period right after the invasion that could have prevented an insurgency but was missed because of the failures of the Bush administration.

You want to talk about Mosul? First Maliki refused security assistance from Kurdish forces because he didn't want them to gain more influence (just like how Iraq is currently rerouting its oil shipments to be inefficiently trucked to Iran instead of through Kurdistan, the sectarian politics going on right now are insane). Then, someone in the administration ordered the senior commanders there to desert Mosul. It wasn't that the Iraqi forces were incapable of fighting, or just fell apart on their own, the defensive line there was deliberately sabotaged by Shiite politicians because they didn't care about defending a Sunni city.

I don't personally care about ISIS. They are just another terrorist organization to me and have largely become irrelevant in the news. But if you're going to point at them and say "look what you did in Iraq", well, I blame the sectarian civil war on Bush, and ISIS assaults in Iraq on Obama.
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etiolate

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14511 on: February 14, 2018, 10:55:16 PM »
We've been eyeing regime change in Syria for awhile. I doubt the civil war didn't have some US fingers in it.

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06DAMASCUS5399_a.html

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14512 on: February 14, 2018, 11:06:01 PM »
Something that needs to be keept in mind

 Iraq voted us out of the country, for some reason a sect of Americans tend to forget that it was the Iraqi's that voted for American forces to largely withdraw from the country. The arguments that don't try to gloss over that largely seem to involve disregarding the will of the democracy we invaded the country to install. Or in Panetta's book, claiming that had Obama just asserted more pressure than had been applied, the Iranian aligned Maliki government would of caved to the will of our self-interest above his own self-interest at the time. Which on the first point, seems slightly hypocritical and damaging in its own right for a government that was already having charges of puppet masters - be it America or Iran - blanketing the ruling members of the government. On the second point, it seems to be a sort of counter-factual that is unknowable, but its hard to imagine short of coercion why that should be assumed to be easily possible? Or even possible at all?

Furthermore, as former intelligence members have pointed out, there is no guarantee that a 6 month, 1 year, or whatever delay was going to remove the rise of ISIS in some other capacity. Just on a different time scale or geographical dispersion.


curly

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14513 on: February 14, 2018, 11:06:55 PM »
This argument is a dead end but "Obama should have made Iraq respect it's Sunni population more" is a hilarious line

Mandark

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14514 on: February 14, 2018, 11:07:03 PM »
I think Obama should have secured a Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq. I think Obama should have done more to make Iraq respect its Sunni population.

This is magical thinking.

Mandark

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14515 on: February 14, 2018, 11:09:17 PM »
If you assume that Iraqis would acquiesce to the US setting internal Iraqi policy and that US officials should have been able to figure out what the proper policies were than yeah, we're just a couple inflection points away from everything being peachy.

Nola

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14516 on: February 14, 2018, 11:14:36 PM »
We've been eyeing regime change in Syria for awhile. I doubt the civil war didn't have some US fingers in it.

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06DAMASCUS5399_a.html

Just like you doubt the debunking of the Seth Rich story will hold.

In both instances, you are substituting faith in conspiracies for evidence, and in both instances, you are still a moron.


shosta

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14517 on: February 14, 2018, 11:21:58 PM »
OK let's hear from the Sunnis and Shiites now

Or the hundreds of thousands dead Iraqis
I've got the UN polls right here and by 2007 most Iraqis hated American troops. But of course by 2014 the public was split about whether the US should have withdrawn at all! My position is that I think there was serious mishandling of the reconstruction of Iraq, Paul Bremer should be in jail, etc. But I hold out hope that there was a right way to do it.

There obviously was a better way to do it. Or at least avoid taking certain actions that were undeniably destructive. But IMO that gets to part of the heart of the problem with the situation altogether. These were people with surprisingly shallow(with a mix of corrupt) ideas on what needs to happen after you have created the philosophical rationalization to justify preventive war and wholesale regime change. And the State Department and the intelligence agencies tried to warn them of their own ignorance, but there was no avoiding their arrogance in it.

And it was already a long response for a place like this, but Syria and Iraq are materially different. Syria, by every metric we have, would be a much more difficult task if you subscribe to all-in commitment to oust Assad, secure the country, and install a democratic system of government.

One of the arguments for why things could of gone better in Iraq under different leadership was because of the unified and initially cooperative military force outside of the loyalist Republican Guard and the largely cooperative Ba'athist bureaucracy. That had you been more sensitive, aware and proactive in the dynamics of those relationships, you could of fostered a much smoother transition and had a lot more resources and trained security forces to deal with a much smaller insurgency of Al Qaeda fighters/Saddam loyalists that would likely not be able to recruit much, if any, Ba'ahists or military forces.  Though to argue myself, the sectarian divisions were always there(which is part of why strongmen were supported to secure often at-odds factions within borders, because they kinda work in that regard, at least temporarily), so there still is a fairly decent probability that those tensions were bound to bloom regardless, and that civil war would still be hard to avoid.

That is really not the case in Syria from everything we have seen. The country is embroiled in a civil war already, tensions that have continued to grow since the Arab Spring, and the divisions run deep, and there is anything but a unifying social and structural fabric to lean on that would make the potential transition a smooth one. So aside from the points others have made about the obvious differences, I think tactically there is a lot more uncertainly and risk in Syria, and likely that is also why(along with geopolitical issues) two administrations, and the military, have now been hesitant to escalate to that sort of strategy.
I think if there was an Arab Spring in the alternate timeline without the Iraq War, Iraq would have been much more susceptible to it than Syria was, primarily because it was surrounded on all borders by countries hungry for the pieces. I think you're wrong vis-a-vis divisions in Syria, by the way. During the start of the civil war and for a long time before that I think Syrian politics has been unified Sunni, Christian, and Kurdish resentment against a ruling Alawite elite. There is no doubt in my mind that, before a third of the population fled or died, an overthrow of Assad by the Free Syrian Army would have resulted in a democratic government.

But in any case I don't necessarily subscribe to ousting Assad. What I want is for there to have been no arms going into Syria at all (from Russia or the US or Turkey), I would have wanted there to have been a no-fly zone (and I still haven't responded to your Susan Rice quote yet).

And I'm not advocating for anything in Syria. It's too late to do anything. The country is gone. The debate over it now is like how to stop the house from burning down even though the kids and the dog are dead. Best you can do is give Iraq some bits in the East, let Kurdistan take the parts in the North, hope Saudi Arabia stops sending radical jihadists there, etc.
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Mandark

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14518 on: February 14, 2018, 11:24:06 PM »
There is no doubt in my mind that, before a third of the population fled or died, an overthrow of Assad by the Free Syrian Army would have resulted in a democratic government.

Lordy.

kingv

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Re: U.S. Politics Discussion Thread |OT| The Benji Memo
« Reply #14519 on: February 14, 2018, 11:26:40 PM »
One thing worth mentioning is that the idea that the American people would have supported putting a substantial number of  boots on the ground in Syria in 2011 or 2012 is batshit insane.

Obama would have been crucified as the Muslim traitor he was if he came out in full throated support of starting a third open-ended, long-term military commitment and subsequent rebuilding in 2011, when like 70% of Americans, and everyone that had voted for him hated the Iraq War with the fury of a thousand suns.

Right thing, wrong thing, whatever, he never really had too much choice in the matter. It was very clear at the time that the country had no real desire to drop $1 trillion, again, on rescuing some third world shithole from itself by bombing it into the Stone Age, when the track record for such things was not so hot.