US Politics Thread |OT| SAD TRUMP

[agrajag]

Republican fuckery knows no bounds.

[Nintex]

You're leaving out half the story Mandark
https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/11/04/kemps-aggressive-gambit-to-distract-from-election-security-crisis/

[Nintex]

Interesting to see how the memes actually work
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/04/technology/jobs-not-mobs.html

[Trent Dole]

It rhymes! It's also super infuriating because the job market doing well has little if anything to do with the current admin's policies and is just a holdover from the previous admin, and of course the violent mobs hitting people with torches in cville and assaulting people in NY outnumbering peeps by 10 to 1 were not leftists.

[Nintex]

Final polls

CNN: D+13
Rasmussen: R+1

 

Markets:
https://twitter.com/L0gg0l/status/1059532608093204480

[agrajag]

Nintex the coward didn't make the bet.

[Joe Molotov]

Just browsing some of the Libertarian candidates for state office...



benji, should I vote for this man? y/n

[CatsCatsCats]

Dude will steal your cheese

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[Nintex]

Nintex the coward didn't make the bet.

Mandark made the mistake thinking that I care if any of them wins
http://www.thebore.com/forum/index.php?topic=45505.msg2525189#msg2525189

It'll be maximum fuckery whoever wins.
The choice is not D or R. The choice is getting shot in the dick or testicle.
You either get Trump blowing his own horn and Republicans rubberstamping the highway to #latestagecapitalism or a bitter political fight and gridlock over E V E R Y T H I N G .
It would be 2 years of government shutdowns and presidential veto's. You'd basically be back to square one where "Washington doesn't work and it needs an outsider!"

Now 2020 is important because that has season renewal on the line.

Does a US president ever get to govern?
Year 1: Get cabinet approved, try to unite party, get something/anything big passed no matter the cost (tax cuts/healthcare/war)
Year 2: Midterm election season
Year 3: Gridlock
Year 4: Re-election campaign

[Mandark]

Nobody said you cared.

I said you're dumb, lie constantly, and are unwilling to back up anything you've said.

[shosta]

So far I am the only one to have made any predictions at all. By default, I am winning.

[Occam]

So, how's this going to go? Trumpsters lose the house but win the senate, because on average Americans aren't exactly smart or well educated (which is precisely how the Trumpsters like it)?

[CatsCatsCats]

Results, yes, reasoning, uh

[Nintex]

So, how's this going to go? Trumpsters lose the house but win the senate, because on average Americans aren't exactly smart or well educated (which is precisely how the Trumpsters like it)?

Depends on how well the fear mongering about the Caravan has worked and how 'fired up' voters are.
Turnout seems up at least so that's a good sign for democracy overall.

Trump at this point is single-handedly driving both the Republicans and Democrats to the polls. It's kinda crazy if you think about it.
If Trump had gone golfing for a month this would've been a low key election.

[Mupepe]

Even though I voted for him I just want Beto to hurry up and lose. His supporters are insufferable, especially since so many of them are stupidly stubborn in their insistence he will win. At least Cruz is so uninspiring that even his supporters won’t talk him up anymore.

[Nintex]

Ted Cruz was first to discover the glitch in the Matrix that if no one likes you, you get elected into office.

[Great Rumbler]

oh yeah when will we see results? I want to see how Mandark's bet against no one works out 

We'll probably know by tomorrow night, unless there are a lot of really, really close races.

[Stro]

Your president, maybe 

[Trurl]

Voting is for nerds. 🤓

[Mandark]

Last year in Virginia the total vote for the Dem candidates beat the Republican side by almost 10 percentage points, they picked up 15 additional seats, yet wound up on the wrong side of a 51-49 split after the decisive seat, ruled a tie after a recount, was settled in the Republican's favor by a literal coin toss.

So I'm basically bracing myself for that to happen on a national level tomorrow.

[Joe Molotov]

Last year in Virginia the total vote for the Dem candidates beat the Republican side by almost 10 percentage points, they picked up 15 additional seats, yet wound up on the wrong side of a 51-49 split after the decisive seat, ruled a tie after a recount, was settled in the Republican's favor by a literal coin toss.

So I'm basically bracing myself for that to happen on a national level tomorrow.

Can you write that out in the form of a two page dialogue between Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell? It might convince Nintex to take your bet.

[kingv]

Last year in Virginia the total vote for the Dem candidates beat the Republican side by almost 10 percentage points, they picked up 15 additional seats, yet wound up on the wrong side of a 51-49 split after the decisive seat, ruled a tie after a recount, was settled in the Republican's favor by a literal coin toss.

So I'm basically bracing myself for that to happen on a national level tomorrow.

Honestly, shit  seems to be shaping up strongly for the dems.

I worried a lot more a month ago than I do today. Sky high turnout is almost always a good sign for dems

[Trent Dole]

Ted Cruz was first to discover the glitch in the Matrix that if no one likes you, you get elected into office.

[agrajag]

Ezra Klein with some inspiring election day thoughts

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1059553661586567168

[Cindi Mayweather]

Even though I voted for him I just want Beto to hurry up and lose. His supporters are insufferable, especially since so many of them are stupidly stubborn in their insistence he will win. At least Cruz is so uninspiring that even his supporters won’t talk him up anymore.

Bro I just don’t get it. He had an actual shot of winning but ran as a fucking Bay Area politician in bloody Texas. And his supporters actually think he is going to win. I read this in politico and it sums it up nicely.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/04/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-texas-senate-2018-election-2221

If O’Rourke loses, Texas might remember him for being singularly positioned to break that ceiling—running in an advantageous environment, against a damaged incumbent, bringing historic resources to bear, at a moment of cultural and demographic transition in the state—and failing to capitalize.

It brings up the question if he even wants to win. The far left doesn’t like centrism but centrism wins elections and democrats need to win elections. They know they lack power but want to bet it all on dewy eyed idealism. Have you heard of the theories that Beto is deliberately losing so he can use this campaign to get momentum for a 2020 bid for president?

I voted and even campaigned for him but Beto will lose, Democrats will take these losses and rather than self examine themselves - which they didn’t do after 2016 - they’ll continue to point at Republicans for being unable to get a state seat.

At least it’ll finally over after today. Until 2020 when democrats pour millions into trying to turn Texas blue instead of focusing their efforts on the Midwest. Then they’ll lose the presidency and go,”Republican corruption is killing us!” as we all collectively bang our heads against the wall.

[Mandark]

Have you heard of the theories that Beto is deliberately losing so he can use this campaign to get momentum for a 2020 bid for president?

[Cindi Mayweather]

I don’t take them seriously I’m just shooting the shit with my friend. I’ll text him instead so I don’t have to suffer.

[Cindi Mayweather]

I mean FUCK, lots of people are thinking it. Straight from the politico article I linked:
 

Given his sudden star power and prodigious fundraising abilities, there is already considerable momentum behind the theory that O’Rourke could segue from a losing Senate candidate to a top-tier presidential contender

The idea that democrats sabotage their own elections is a fairly prevalent one among conservatives. While I don’t believe it, I don’t blame them for thinking it. The democrats really are that incompetent. You’ve got a black governor candidate that is a woman in Georgia and she’s like,”yes, you will have to turn in your guns!” And this is Georgia. They are either very smart, or very stupid. No inbetween. Given my experience with idyllic democrats, Beto supporters, the 2016 Hillary campaign I lean on stupid.

[Mandark]

[Mupepe]

yeah I don't think he's sabotaged it.  I think he earnestly thought moving further left was the right answer to energize some hidden liberal base in Texas that doesn't actually exist. 

[Propagandhim]

Meek, liberal participation-trophy culture in a nutshell

[Joe Molotov]

Wouldn't he have more cachet if he won the election? Banking on voters remembering you got beat by Ted Cruz two years ago doesn't seem like a winning strategy.

[shosta]

People said this about Kander, it's dumb

[Mandark]

Lemme throw this out there: the dude is almost certainly going to do better than every other Democratic candidate for senate or governor in Texas has done for close to three decades and has generated enough enthusiasm that people are literally sick of his supporters.

It might be possible he's run an okay campaign.

[Propagandhim]

Yeah, that's what I'd tell myself if I were going to lose to the guy whose dad killed the honorable John F Kennedy. 

[BikeJesus]

I'm going to bet that the Republicans hold both the House and Senate, based solely on 2016 polling versus actual results. Also, those fucking rallies and the insane turnouts that get zero press.

[kingv]

Lemme throw this out there: the dude is almost certainly going to do better than every other Democratic candidate for senate or governor in Texas has done for close to three decades and has generated enough enthusiasm that people are literally sick of his supporters.

It might be possible he's run an okay campaign.

I think people saying “oh he should have run as 1992 Bill Clinton are out of their minds”

The reason he is getting the enthusiasm he is getting is because he’s running the campaign he’s running. IMO he does even worse as “republican-lite”

[Stro]

Has anyone ever considered that early voting might not necessarily mean people are more fired up to vote or that more people are going to turn out, but that people who normally vote  are just trying to get that shit out of the way?

[nachobro]

in new mexico, early voting is much less hassle than voting on election day. you can go to any voting location, there's pretty much no lines, plus the polling hours are longer and it's open on weekends. that's why i voted early.

[Mandark]

Has anyone ever considered that early voting might not necessarily mean people are more fired up to vote or that more people are going to turn out, but that people who normally vote  are just trying to get that shit out of the way?

Yeah, vote nerds call it "cannibalizing" the election day turnout. But there are a bunch of other signs (individual donations, self-reported voting intent, high turnout in special elections and last year in VA) that all point to a very high turnout for a midterm election.

[TakingBackSunday]

I have a feeling Kemp is going to win Georgia based purely on machines "malfunctioning."

[shosta]

Ok, but we have the buses full of migrants and zombies

[Mandark]

https://twitter.com/tomreganWSB/status/1059838200699674624

[Madrun Badrun]

Been preparing myself mentally all week to be disappointed by you Americans again. 

[Mupepe]

Lemme throw this out there: the dude is almost certainly going to do better than every other Democratic candidate for senate or governor in Texas has done for close to three decades and has generated enough enthusiasm that people are literally sick of his supporters.

It might be possible he's run an okay campaign.

He has ran an okay campaign.  I think he could have ran a great one by being a bit more pragmatic and stayed the course after the primaries.   Instead he actually seemed to pivot left. Sadler spent about $400k for his entire campaign and got about 41%.  Beto has raised something like $70 million dollars and will probably end up with a few percentage points more.  That seems like a terrible ROI.  And his supporters are annoying because so many are still delusional.  I try to talk to my friends and they think I'm crazy because I think Beto is going to lose.  They're not annoying because they like him and I do give him props for being charismatic. 

[stufte]

Fuck this having an important election on my birthday bullshit. It's going to make the entire day miserable.

[Stro]

Be like me and make all your days miserable and you won't be able to tell the difference

[Madrun Badrun]

Happy election day dude!

[stufte]

At least Colorado has early voting via mail-in ballots. I had that shit handled weeks ago.

[Nintex]

Last year in Virginia the total vote for the Dem candidates beat the Republican side by almost 10 percentage points, they picked up 15 additional seats, yet wound up on the wrong side of a 51-49 split after the decisive seat, ruled a tie after a recount, was settled in the Republican's favor by a literal coin toss.

So I'm basically bracing myself for that to happen on a national level tomorrow.

Can you write that out in the form of a two page dialogue between Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell? It might convince Nintex to take your bet.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Mitch: "Hello Mr. President"

Donald: "Hi Mitch what's that you're holding?"

Mitch: "That's how we decide elections Donald, with this lucky coin"

Donald: "Coins? I don't do coins. You never know where coins have been. Imagine if like an ugly person like a 3 or a 4 had that coin in her pocket and now you're holding it."

Mitch: "You see Donald, that's the great thing when you are in control of government. Heads we win, tails we lose.... but we can't lose"

Donald: "How can you not lose? You might get a disease from the coin and die. We should ban coins. I talked about it with Mnuchin the other day he liked the idea a lot. He also hates coins, he said we should replace them with Legos like that movie he's made. Have you seen his movies? Those are great fun. He's great. In fact he might even get a nice licensing deal when we replace the coins."

Mitch: "But Donald, Every coin minted under a Republican treasury is balanced in such a way that it always lands on heads"

Mitch: "Under the presidency of George Bush we minted so many coins that we would have a surplus of coins for decades to come. We will never run out of coins that land on heads and we always bet on heads."

Donald: "Why don't the Democrats bet on heads?"

Mitch: "Simple Donald, we've used historical figures with questionable racial histories. Slave owners, explorers, wartime presidents and the like. A Democrat is never going to bet on Honest Abe"

Mitch: "We then introduced a little known bill on the first day of your presidency that replaced all election toss-up coins with coins minted after 2002."

Mitch: "Stalin famously said, 'It doesn't matter who votes it matters who counts the votes'. I say it doesn't matter who bets it matters who mints the coins."

Donald: "I like that Mitch, I signed a lot to be honest and I will sign more if we win. Guess I'll tell Mnuchin we're not going to do LEGOs then. Shame, would be fun if you had like a building set in your wallet"

Mitch: "We know Donald... we know."

[close]

Good luck guys. Enjoy voting and your day of democracy. Whoever loses we win.

[shosta]

Fuck this having an important election on my birthday bullshit. It's going to make the entire day miserable.

I've got you beat. I know someone who scheduled their gay wedding on the 2016 election day because they were that excited for Hillary to win.

[stufte]

Fuck this having an important election on my birthday bullshit. It's going to make the entire day miserable.

I've got you beat. I know someone who scheduled their gay wedding on the 2016 election day because they were that excited for Hillary to win.

oof.

[shosta]

why is there not a national movement to abolish the Senate

[Joe Molotov]

why is there not a national movement to abolish the Senate

Because then Ted Cruz would just be out in the wild, uncontained, free to kill again.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059868722972778498

Some of these are wild. At the end of the day George Bush will be President Again.

Wait

[Cindi Mayweather]

lmao at new york democrats throwing around ideas,"why don't we try to emulate China's score system and screen peoples social media before a gun purchase?"

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ny-gun-buyers-should-have-social-media-screened-pols-say

Trump, Bloomberg, we can go on but New York politicians truly are terrible. First, second, fifth, ninth amendments? What's that? Why almost every NY politician end up being an authoritarian? Is it something in the water over there?

[TakingBackSunday]

Shut the fuck up

[CatsCatsCats]

So much for the tolerant left

[Cindi Mayweather]

Shut the fuck up

No.

[Cindi Mayweather]

oh WOW at my local Beto office I saw this picture on the wall



really makes you vote