US Politics Thread |OT| SAD TRUMP

[TakingBackSunday]

So the democrats where the ones doing the chating? Jesus...

What???

[Great Rumbler]

And confident that a lot of the people who voted for it won't be back in 2019.

Also, it was a reference to GOP's reaction to the Clinton tax bill in 1993.

[TakingBackSunday]

So the democrats where the ones doing the chating? Jesus...

i guess they're confident it's not passing the senate

We were confident it wasn't passing the House too

[benjipwns]

"The Democratic Party would win more elections if they shifted towards my own personal beliefs."

A fresh, insightful take.

Are you saying the Democratic Party wouldn't be electorally invincible if they publicly rejected the legitimacy of the state and politics in general?

 

[Boredfrom]

So the democrats where the ones doing the chating? Jesus...

i guess they're confident it's not passing the senate

We were confident it wasn't passing the House too

There were also pretty confident that Trump will lose.

[Phoenix Dark]

So the democrats where the ones doing the chating? Jesus...

Democrats are singing the same song on the House Floor that GOPs sang to them in 1993 when Clinton tax bill passed. https://t.co/1ZdGcEcsnD

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) May 4, 2017

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/860198399542517760

[TakingBackSunday]

Fucking christ

[Great Rumbler]

Issa's career is probably toast. He was already on thin ice to begin with [winning his most recent election by less than 2,000 votes out of 310,000], but now he's going down as the deciding vote on the ACHA. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, to be honest.

[Nola]

So the democrats where the ones doing the chating? Jesus...

i guess they're confident it's not passing the senate

We were confident it wasn't passing the House too

We're we?

I feel like initially most people thought they would get something out of the House. It would just die a quick death in the Senate.

It turning into the clusterfuck it did to the point they couldn't even bring themselves to vote on it with a solid majority is what made it this
  moment.

[Great Rumbler]

So far, two Senators [Portman and Graham] have spoken publicly against the bill in its current state. It only takes 3 Republican No votes to kill the bill.

[I'm a Puppy!]

 
I called it!!

spoiler (click to show/hide)

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[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/860189985856770048

[benjipwns]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/2016-election-pollsters-react-237975

The American Association for Public Opinion Research’s much-anticipated 2016 election polling review concludes that the national polling was “generally correct and accurate by historical standards,” but some state polls, especially in the Upper Midwest, underestimated Donald Trump’s standing

“While the general public reaction was that ‘the polls failed,’ we found the reality to be more complex — a position held by a number of industry experts,” the report concludes. “Some polls, indeed, had large, problematic errors, but many polls did not.”

And you guys were cracking jokes.

[Syph]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/421398464472162304

"Today I didn't even have to use my AHCA, I gotta say it was a good day"

[Boredfrom]

To everybody saying that this bill passing will help sink republicans and Trump, how can you be so sure? I'm honestly confused on why this seems like a win for Democrats.

It could be if the democratic party was competent enough to  guess that sarcastically chanting about the bill passing is still poor taste to people in general. Alas, Gaf is already shitting on people complaining about the chant is not good omen.

[Great Rumbler]

Most people aren't gonna remember a dumb chant in 2018, but people are definitely going to be feeling the effects of this bill [assuming it passes the Senate].

[Boredfrom]

Most people aren't gonna remember a dumb chant in 2018, but people are definitely going to be feeling the effects of this bill [assuming it passes the Senate].

True, but is still frustrating to see the party doing stuff like this and later complaining about  "why people didnt like us enough to vote". The party will also survive 5 minutes of self reflection.

I wasn't talking about the dumb chant so much as the sentiment. This seems exceptionally bad if it passes the senate. And I for one am not going to overestimate Trump supporters empathy while underestimating their blind loyalty. Don't see how it can be taken as a win.

People are not counting for the Trump supporters but for the regular republican or moderate that is going to get fucked if the bill pass.

[Great Rumbler]

I wasn't talking about the dumb chant so much as the sentiment. This seems exceptionally bad if it passes the senate. And I for one am not going to overestimate Trump supporters empathy while underestimating their blind loyalty. Don't see how it can be taken as a win.

Midterms are almost always bad for the party in charge of the White House to begin with, and if Democrats and independents have something very visible to rally around it could certainly turn into a win by November 2018. But today was definitely not a win for Democrats.

[fistfulofmetal]

The GOP just voted to strip health coverage from millions of Americans and all I can fucking read about is some Dems signing on the floor. Who fucking cares.

[Syph]

I wasn't talking about the dumb chant so much as the sentiment. This seems exceptionally bad if it passes the senate. And I for one am not going to overestimate Trump supporters empathy while underestimating their blind loyalty. Don't see how it can be taken as a win.

Midterms are almost always bad for the party in charge of the White House to begin with, and if Democrats and independents have something very visible to rally around it could certainly turn into a win by November 2018. But today was definitely not a win for Democrats.

Good points.
Also worth noting the wildcard for the midterms being the math of which seats are up may mitigate some potential losses for Repubs. But who knows these days
There may be some reverse hubris on the horizon...if the Dems continue their recent spate of grassroots movement they could surprise the Republicans if they don't take them seriously. But then again, one would think that Trump will be involved in making sure his base turns out for those votes. Interesante either way

[benjipwns]

To everybody saying that this bill passing will help sink republicans and Trump, how can you be so sure? I'm honestly confused on why this seems like a win for Democrats.

The bill and chant is irrelevant, 2018 is a lock for the Democrats and has been for years if not decades, just look at the map, there's no way they can lose this and the GOP nearly running the table on open Senate seats is impossible in an election. Especially after Trump is removed from office a couple weeks from now. President Pelosi is going to have supermajorities at minimum in both Houses when she enters office.

This assumes of course that Russia is stopped before they steal another election by leaking completely faked e-mails.

[Boredfrom]

The GOP just voted to strip health coverage from millions of Americans and I can fucking read about is some Dems signing on the floor. Who fucking cares.

The people that cost you the election by not bothering in voting.

[bluemax]

https://twitter.com/mollyhooper/status/860204116659851264

That's not how football works.

[Joe Molotov]

Punting the bill over to the Senate, where they hope it doesn't pass so they won't be blamed for the fallout, but can still tell their constitutes they voted for it.

 

[Let's Cyber]

To everybody saying that this bill passing will help sink republicans and Trump, how can you be so sure? I'm honestly confused on why this seems like a win for Democrats.

The bill and chant is irrelevant, 2018 is a lock for the Democrats and has been for years if not decades, just look at the map, there's no way they can lose this and the GOP nearly running the table on open Senate seats is impossible in an election. Especially after Trump is removed from office a couple weeks from now. President Pelosi is going to have supermajorities at minimum in both Houses when she enters office.

This assumes of course that Russia is stopped before they steal another election by leaking completely faked e-mails.

*snorts another line of home grown American PoliGAF*

 

[benjipwns]

RED LETTER GAMERGATE

[Boredfrom]

Hillary Clinton is going to save us

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-returns-to-politics-with-a-new-focus-on-the?utm_term=.sn05VjyRpp#.mmLYPapBoo

[Nola]

To everybody saying that this bill passing will help sink republicans and Trump, how can you be so sure? I'm honestly confused on why this seems like a win for Democrats.

100% sure?  Definitely not. Especially if they let this die quick.

But this bill is bad and voters blame the party in power for shit like this. The town halls and the special election have already been brutal in showing the level of activation on the left right now. If it manages to pass I would say 100%.

The CBO pins the loss of coverage at 14 million in 2018. Not 2019 or 2020, but a fucking election year.

The new community rating is going to mean older rural working class people will see their insurance spike for thousands more dollars. In an election year.

And that isn't even talking about the easy campaign ads that X Republican voted to take away treatment for woman brutalized by domestic violence or rape. Voted to take away healthcare for woman on the eve of Mothers Day. Cut 600 billion in subsidies to pay for 600 billion in tax cuts for millionaires. Heck the amendment actually has the potential to really harm the employer market now. Something at least they could of mostly avoided before this amendment.

[benjipwns]

Hillary Clinton is going to save us

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-returns-to-politics-with-a-new-focus-on-the?utm_term=.sn05VjyRpp#.mmLYPapBoo

In recent interviews people familiar with the plans outlined a project that is still very much in the works, with details as major name and launch date still not final.

A Clinton spokesman, Nick Merrill, declined to comment on the plans.

The central mission of the organization, likely to be structured as a PAC, will be selecting a small but diverse number of progressive groups, new, old, large, small, to not only fund and support those groups, but build a cooperative well-organized network.

For two months, Clinton has worked on plans for the project alongside three partners — including Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont and Democratic Party chair, and another failed presidential candidate. The idea behind the group, to seed members of the loose movement on the left incited by President Donald Trump, is a role Dean sees as unique and needed. “We’re not looking to duplicate or replace the DNC or the DCCC or all that stuff,” he said of two central party committees. “We’re looking to give these folks the opportunity to do the building they’re already doing on their terms, but in a more organized way, when the one hand knows what the other hand is doing.”

Center for American Progress Resistance

[benjipwns]

The design of the project is simply figuring out what would best to support new or existing activist groups.

Over the two months, in three or four meetings, they had a rough plan: The groups undergo heavy vetting, submit a budget for funding, and are winnowed to a pool of 10 or 12 organizations, each with distinct functions or tactics.

The project is still very in the works. Dean said, for instance, he did not know if they would be hiring staff. (“We haven’t gotten there yet.”) He is adamant that this kind of project can’t be run from “the top-down” and that he will “absolutely not” be running it with Clinton.

There’s no name for project, either. “Not only is there not a name for it yet, but there probably never will be,” Dean said, describing the effort as a “loose affiliation of groups” that the project will try to facilitate working together.

“We’re not gonna tell them what they have to do,” he said. “This is not a top-down organization. It can’t be with this generation.”

For her part, Clinton is back on the speaking circuit and working on her memoir.

How about this, these 12 groups...maybe more, diverse certainly. Someone representing them does a series of tasks split between two teams. And after each task, the losing team, they're called into a...lets say, boardroom. And then after some back and forth Hillary fires one of the groups until there's one left remaining.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

The Vanguard

[close]

[Boredfrom]

I cannot see how this wouldn't backfire in a political climate where there is the need of a conspiracy and a shadow enemy figure that is controlling everything behind scenes, including slave rings in  pizzerias.

[FStop7]

Hillary Clinton is going to save us

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-returns-to-politics-with-a-new-focus-on-the?utm_term=.sn05VjyRpp#.mmLYPapBoo

Can't wait for the Leon Lett of politics to save us all.

[Nola]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senate-wont-vote-on-house-passed-healthcare-bill/article/2622152

The Senate isn't even going to bother with the House bill.

So much of the bill can't make it past the parliamentarian anyway. It's DOA.

Banking on the good sense of Republicans on healthcare has never failed to make fools of us all.

Rationality says this is DOA, but we just saw a bunch of moderate Republicans kick the box out from under them and let the Senate decide if they have the good sense to cut the rope and not join them. Which will be in the face of the president, rich donors, misplaced campaign promises, and those dangling from the rope demanding they put the noose around them too. Either by putting up for a vote or twisting arms to pass it.

[TakingBackSunday]

I have no faith or hope.  We're just doomed until 2024

[Nola]

Since everyone was speculating about the likelihood of how this could or won't affect the 2018 election:

Democrats who voted for Obamacare lost 6.6 to 7.6 percentage points of the vote, depending on which model they used. Note, however, that these totals refer to the share of the vote the Democrat lost and not to the margin that the Democrat had against the Republican. Since third-party candidates are rarely major factors in House races, almost every vote the Democrat loses is one the Republican gains. Thus, the effect on the Democrat’s margin against the Republican was roughly twice that — 13 to 15 percentage points. That’s a huge effect; it means that a Democrat who was on track to cruise to re-election by 12 points would lose if they’d voted for Obamacare.

If Republican members should suffer a similar penalty for voting for the AHCA — somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 points — it could put dozens of GOP-held seats in play. Some 33 Republicans won their seats by 14 percentage points or less in 20161; of those, 27 voted for the AHCA.

Republicans in the next tier or two down could also be vulnerable, however, because the overall political climate is likely to be a lot worse for Republicans than it was in 2016. In 2016, Republicans won the aggregate popular vote for the U.S. House by about 1 percentage point. Democrats currently have a 5- to 6-point lead in polls of the 2018 House vote, however. Moreover, the numbers for the president’s party usually get worse over the course of the midterm cycle as more voters tune into the political process. There could easily be an overall partisan swing of 5 to 10 percentage points against Republicans, therefore. It’s not quite clear how this partisan swing would interact with the AHCA penalty — whether you’d add them together or whether that’s double-counting — but it should be enough to make a lot of Republican incumbents nervous. There are 58 Republicans who won by less than 20 points in 20162 and who voted for the AHCA.

Unless it passes it is a bit of an apples/oranges comparison. But it does show what the historical precedent has been by looking at what happened to incumbents that voted for the ACA.

[toku]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/860240818803703808

[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/860240818803703808

 

[FStop7]

but death panels

[benjipwns]

(Image removed from quote.)

Nate writes all that and links to all these things but not a single one of them to tell me who the dude who got elected with almost 100% of the vote who voted against it was.

I did find out GovTrack added this to their bills pages:

This bill has a 13% chance of being enacted.
Factors considered:

The overall text of the bill decreases its chances of being enacted. Although this bill has a low chance of enactment, there is 1 provision within this bill that the provision-level textual analysis considers likely to be enacted. There are often multiple bills with the same legal provisions within them. The bill's primary sponsor is from the state/territory: TN. The bill is assigned to the House Budget committee. There is 1 related bill in Congress. The bill's primary subject is Health.

(Factors are based on correlations which may not indicate causation.)

Predictions are by Skopos Labs.

Also you can rate every bill with emjois now.

Anyway, one of the Republicans who voted against the bill won by nine votes, then on the recount won by 27 votes.

Three of the twenty no-vote GOPers are from NJ. Though one guy has served since 1984 or something.

Anyway, the guy I think is Peter Welch who shouldn't count since he's a Democrat, just nobody ran against him so he won the Republican primary too. Everybody else who got 90+% of the vote in 2016 voted with their party.

Oddly, a number of the GOP No votes are people who regularly have won with 60+% of the vote, including people who usually win with 65+%. Though now looking at the graph again I can see that's pretty clear.

[benjipwns]

This probably won't even be an issue in the 2018 elections.

Democrats will be getting annihilated for their votes against protecting our Second Amendment rights when we need all the heavy artillery our precious metals (thanks to the collapsed dollar Ron Paul keeps warning us about on the radio) can buy us to fight off the giant mutant Rat-"people" demanding "free" college and the "right" to cut in the breadlines.

[Nola]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/860240818803703808

Yeah, there are a few nuggets like that that I was surprised didn't get picked up more. I heard it mentioned on a "Weeds" podcast while I drove to Houston and that was about it.

Another I read is that the whole "cheaper coverage for younger people" is not really true. Or atlas highly misleading. But Democrats sort of seemed to let it go in the rhetoric. And I regularly heard it reiterated on NPR as recent as an hour ago driving home.

Lower premiums are just achieved primarily by offering skimpier coverage and higher deductibles. So premiums are often lower, but that is because the CBO in large part assumes people will pick plans with higher deductibles and less coverage because of the estimated repeal of mandated benefits in many states.

[Madrun Badrun]

 

[Mupepe]

Drove to Houston? Bring me food please!

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/860240818803703808

Yeah, there are a few nuggets like that that I was surprised didn't get picked up more. I heard it mentioned on a "Weeds" podcast while I drove to Houston and that was about it.

Another I read is that the whole "cheaper coverage for younger people" is not really true. Or atlas highly misleading. But Democrats sort of seemed to let it go in the rhetoric. And I regularly heard it reiterated on NPR as recent as an hour ago driving home.

Lower premiums are just achieved primarily by offering skimpier coverage and higher deductibles. So premiums are often lower, but that is because the CBO in large part assumes people will pick plans with higher deductibles and less coverage because of the estimated repeal of mandated benefits in many states.

[TakingBackSunday]

Goddamit Benji shut up for once

[benjipwns]

http://thehill.com/regulation/332018-aclu-reverses-on-suing-over-religious-freedom-order

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) reversed course Thursday, saying it won't file a lawsuit challenging President Trump's executive order on religious political exemptions.

“Today’s executive order signing was an elaborate photo-op with no discernible policy outcome," ACLU director Anthony Romero said in a statement.

"After careful review of the order’s text we have determined that the order does not meaningfully alter the ability of religious institutions or individuals to intervene in the political process. The order portends, but does not yet do harm to the provision of reproductive health services," Romero added.
...
“President Trump’s prior assertion that he wished to ‘totally destroy’ the Johnson Amendment with this order has proven to be a textbook case of ‘fake news,’" Romero said.

[benjipwns]

Goddamit Benji shut up for once

Not until 2024 you said.

[TakingBackSunday]

I just don't have it in me to humor your shit anymore

[benjipwns]

On behalf of America I apologize for your inability to handle all this winning we're doing.

[Human Snorenado]

Oh look, the politics thread is still shit.

[Nola]

Drove to Houston? Bring me food please!

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/860240818803703808

Yeah, there are a few nuggets like that that I was surprised didn't get picked up more. I heard it mentioned on a "Weeds" podcast while I drove to Houston and that was about it.

Another I read is that the whole "cheaper coverage for younger people" is not really true. Or atlas highly misleading. But Democrats sort of seemed to let it go in the rhetoric. And I regularly heard it reiterated on NPR as recent as an hour ago driving home.

Lower premiums are just achieved primarily by offering skimpier coverage and higher deductibles. So premiums are often lower, but that is because the CBO in large part assumes people will pick plans with higher deductibles and less coverage because of the estimated repeal of mandated benefits in many states.

lol, sorry, I got back a couple weeks ago.


Tried my first Shake Shack there though. And I have to say, I honestly don't get the hype.

Though it was at the mall, and we were still annoyed(but somewhat curious) at all the Israeli salesmen/woman in every wing coming up to me and my girlfriend and trying to put rubber cement on our arms and then sell it to us for $300.

[thisismyusername]

The GOP just voted to strip health coverage from millions of Americans and all I can fucking read about is some Dems signing on the floor. Who fucking cares.

What's getting me is the GOP voters that in "fuck you, got mine" mode. "AFFORADABLE HEALTHCARE!" For who? You?! Congrats, you just fucked your voting block over, you morons.

And the sad part is, those fucked over voting block workers (read: coal miners) will vote for Trump again stupidly because "muh money."

[Nola]

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/860301918744268800

[Phoenix Dark]

https://twitter.com/TrueFactsStated/status/860367046139367424

Starting to think a lot of Russia talk on left twitter is basically bullshit artists taking advantage of desperate liberals. I believe Trump is guilty of something but these dudes guaranteeing sources telling them Trump is on tape committing xyz crimes and the FBI is about to get him...nah.

[Sausage]

I for one would fully believe anything that someone called TrueFactsStated says.

[Mandark]

The Russia stuff has attracted and provided an audience for some complete goofballs like Louise Mensch and Seth Abramson. I only really see it when other people retweet it sarcastically, but your description seems on target: promises of an imminent definitive scandal which will bring down Trump. It's similar to the explosion of "rogue" government accounts.

I don't mind fan fiction as a hobby, just try not to confuse it with reality.

[Trent Dole]

There's plenty of Russia shit out there, it's pretty well documented, there was plenty that was well documented before the election, nobody gave a fuck then, and most still don't now.

[thisismyusername]

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/860301918744268800

https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/860299912214446082

 

[chronovore]

Edit: RELATEDLY…
http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2017/05/03/Bob-Casey-Trump-Tweetstorm-immigration-Honduran-mother/stories/201705030198

[Rufus]

i think in trump's mind that was somehow meant to be a dig at obama

obamacare is so bad even you have better healthcare than us

something like that

Most certainly. But like always, he betrays his ignorance.

[Phoenix Dark]

Seth Abramson is on record as a proponent of a "journalism" style that boils down to mixing fiction with news in order to create entertaining stories. So you know he's bullshitting.