Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart

[VomKriege]

It's too early to tell if the UK was bitten in the ass for its early policy in this and / or because the NHS has been rationally streamlined too well but it's hard not to think it is playing a part.

[Madrun Badrun]

"Boy, I sure do love living in Canada which is way better than our Southern neighbor at social welfare!"



(Image removed from quote.)

"Boy, I sure do love living in Canada which is way better than our Southern neighbor at social welfare!"



(Image removed from quote.)

The difference is, I'm pretty sure the government underestimated the number of people who would not be covered by CERB, rather than willful neglect and I'd expect this to be rectified and post-dated now that it become a known issue (people were really just figuring out the details last week, and I just heard of the 1/3 not being covered about Friday).  Also, the people making up this group seem to be long-term unemployed and students.  Not saying that they are not in critical need of income but my guess is they are in less need than people who have an unexpected loss of income because of this. 

from today https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/trudeau-says-help-coming-for-students-unable-to-find-summer-jobs-1.4883310

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-covid19-benefits-trudeau-1.5523052

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/pm-trudeau-updates-wage-subsidy-and-aid-for-students-will-attend-cabinet-in-person-1.4887926

The government has also announced temporary changes to the Canada Summer Jobs program. Now, employers who hire summer students can apply for a subsidy of up to 100 per cent to cover the cost, helping create up to 70,000 jobs for Canadians between the ages of 15 and 30.

The time frame for the job placements are also being extended until the winter, given some jobs will “start later than usual,” Trudeau said. The student hires can also be employed part-time, given many businesses have had to scale back their operations.

[Madrun Badrun]

[VomKriege]

Italy and Spain are doing better at least. But this will have a long tail...

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1247901301872013326

[shosta]

yes, there are trials suggesting it has no significant effect, some suggesting it only works on people with serious illness but not mild symptoms, and some suggesting it will only work on those with mild conditions but can't help the seriously ill

[Madrun Badrun]

NY just reported 780 deaths.

[shosta]

Is that over 24 hours? And is that less than the previous day?

[Madrun Badrun]

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/so-easy-i-thought-it-was-fake-cras-cerb-system-gets-stellar-reviews-in-first-days-of-operation

So easy I thought it was fake': CRA’s CERB system gets stellar reviews in first days of operation

[Madrun Badrun]

Is that over 24 hours? And is that less than the previous day?

yes, and 50 more than yesterday. 

[VomKriege]

Is that over 24 hours? And is that less than the previous day?

Yes. Though it may get updated further later today...
More than yesterday and it's the highest daily report yet AFAIK.

New York will probably peak within the week hopefully since stay at home was passed on March 22, but as seen with Italy and Spain, the number of deaths will keep steady though below the peak for at least a week.

[Mandark]

There's absolutely nothing I can do to change anything, and daily totals are misleading because they fluctuate so a smoothed average would be better, and I still find myself checking Worldometers and stressing myself out unnecessarily every couple hours.

[Madrun Badrun]

While smoothed averages will be better, I don't know how valid they are with exponential data. 

[shosta]

I think he means a smooth average over the log, to know if the growth trend is changing

[VomKriege]

The rate of new hospital check ins has been slowing down though so there's that.
The lag and inertia induced by the incubation and long sickness make it excruciating but it should be trending in the right direction at one point.

But yeah expect 2500 deaths more in NYS by Monday.

[shosta]

Am I wrong that you should still expect total deaths to double from the time of peak deaths, at minimum? And the tail is heavier so it should be even more than that. Meaning if at peak deaths we're at 20,000, the final death toll will still be like 40k or more.

[Madrun Badrun]

I think he means a smooth average over the log, to know if the growth trend is changing

Ya, see I find those more reassuring, but at the same when the underlying rate is exponential, I feel like its miss leading to feeling like we are doing better if the rate changes from 3 days to 4 days when the death toll is already really high.  It kind of hides the tragedy if that makes sense. 

[shosta]

We're all mathematically literate here and the rate of growth slowing is doing better

[VomKriege]

Am I wrong that you should still expect total deaths to double from the time of peak deaths, at minimum? And the tail is heavier so it should be even more than that. Meaning if at peak deaths we're at 20,000, the final death toll will still be like 40k or more.

I don't know about the exact proportion but yes probably. Italy, Spain and hopefully France, Belgium will give a clearer idea by April's end.

But as I said : probably a week or so with daily reported deaths steady, and then a slow decrease over one or two weeks. Probably not to 0 either but with hospitals being able to cope. Plus probably some backlog deaths that never reached the healthcare system (at home, elder's care institutions).

Double might be conservative, even.

[VomKriege]

New Jersey is also having a rough time. Last two days reports account for 1/3 of all deaths so far.

[VomKriege]

Looked at Italy and they peaked at 919 deaths reported on March 27th. It's been slowly decreasing since but we're still at 542 reported today 11 or 12 days after... So yeah, 21 to 28 days to reduce casualties by 2/3 seems the right ballpark.

Edit : Spain look a bit different, day with the highest total is maybe not the best cutoff point, but that should be fairly similar. They seem to have peaked 3 to 5 days after Italy. France peaked on the 6th or the 3rd of April, hopefully.

[CatsCatsCats]

Hey, uh, when is that money printer gonna go, anyway?

[VomKriege]

Hey, uh, when is that money printer gonna go, anyway?

Oh it's going alright.
Trickling down to plebeians has the same lag as COVID19 stats however.

[Tripon]

Hey, uh, when is that money printer gonna go, anyway?

Oh it's going alright.
Trickling down to plebeians has the same lag as COVID19 stats however.

I'm lucky enough to keep my job working from home, and I gotta say, this duality of politicians complaining about the millions of people on the unemployment rolls and then refusing to even entertain paying employers on a much larger scale so they can keep employees on the payrolls is maddening.

[VomKriege]

17 more beds in ICU had to be allocated in France today, for a total of 7100k or so occupied, which should hopefully be the peak of the strain on hospitals. Less people total are being entered in ICU too on absolute terms (under 500 today...), and the recoveries are freeing beds.

I don't think the French government did a good job but relative to how far we were on that curve, they did lockdown slightly earlier than Italy (with the benefit of their example) and we may have peaked at 600 deaths a day in hospitals instead of 750-900.
Small mercies.

[VomKriege]

City of Nice also said wearing masks will be mandatory once lockdown start lifting under penalty of fines.

 

[Raist]

Am I wrong that you should still expect total deaths to double from the time of peak deaths, at minimum?

That's what bell-shaped curves normally imply, yes.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1247951106220740610

[VomKriege]

Di Blasio is apparently stating that suspected COVID deaths at home should be added to the total (estimated at 100 or 200 a day or so in NYC).

[shosta]

Been speaking Italian lately?

[VomKriege]

Oh joy, Macron will address us Monday. Lockdown is getting extended for certain. I guess until May 1st.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1247970747554959361

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1247951106220740610

Bojo for sure is going to have an affair with one of the nurses that blows up his newest attempt at settling down 

[Brehvolution]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829850505/millions-didnt-pay-rent-last-week-amid-pandemic-woes

The National Multifamily Housing Council says 31% of renters didn't make their payment in the first week of April. Normally, about 20% of people don't pay their rent on time. The group tracks more than 13 million units through its survey.

 

"If the rent payments drop off significantly, they won't be able to pay their staffs, they won't be able to pay their mortgages, they won't be able to pay their utilities," Bibby says. "They won't be able to pay the managers who manage their properties for them.

"I just see this cascading out throughout the whole system and just exacerbating the unemployment problem and the dislocation problem," he adds.

 

Apartment owners whining about living month to month sounds like a bad business model. They make a killing.

[Flannel Boy]

Over 1.5 million: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1,501,061

[OnlyRegret]

Over 1.5 million: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1,501,061

USAian deathtoll within a hop of Spain's already. It's gonna hit 2k per day today most likely.

[VomKriege]

USA atop Spain for fatalities. Will probably do the same with Italy tomorrow (more likely the day after).

[Flannel Boy]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829850505/millions-didnt-pay-rent-last-week-amid-pandemic-woes

The National Multifamily Housing Council says 31% of renters didn't make their payment in the first week of April. Normally, about 20% of people don't pay their rent on time. The group tracks more than 13 million units through its survey.

 

"If the rent payments drop off significantly, they won't be able to pay their staffs, they won't be able to pay their mortgages, they won't be able to pay their utilities," Bibby says. "They won't be able to pay the managers who manage their properties for them.

"I just see this cascading out throughout the whole system and just exacerbating the unemployment problem and the dislocation problem," he adds.

 

Apartment owners whining about living month to month sounds like a bad business model. They make a killing.

Tenants: We lost most of our income.
Landlord: I don't care if you lost most of your income, but if I lose a single cent of rent-income, I will cry poverty.

On March 31st, my landlord sent all the tenants an offer of partial rent deferral if accepted before April 1st. . . . And the options made no sense. If someone can only pay 50% of their rent on April 1st, how are they going to pay 150% on May 1st?

[OnlyRegret]

Positive rates on testing reaching almost 50% in New Jersey and 20% nationally

If Bojo only needed oxygen, that seems more like it'd fall under serious/hospitalization if you had to categorize. Him doing better is fine, don't need to stack messes on messes.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1247983937026220033

This plan of the Feds giving the national stockpile to private companies instead of the States is working out great.

[Leadbelly]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1247970747554959361

Without consent.

"Excuse me, miss! May I choke you to death?"

[BIONIC]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1247970747554959361

Without consent.

"Excuse me, miss! May I choke you to death?"

Sounds like mmrasu 

[Madrun Badrun]

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/cetier1/status/1248013559000264704

[Tasty]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1247970747554959361

He's doing his part.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

In killing teenagers!

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[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.newsweek.com/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-france-heart-cardiac-1496810

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888

[bluemax]

There's absolutely nothing I can do to change anything, and daily totals are misleading because they fluctuate so a smoothed average would be better, and I still find myself checking Worldometers and stressing myself out unnecessarily every couple hours.

I've actually stopped checking sites and this thread during the workday this week. I've found my mood is improved and I am more productive.

[Madrun Badrun]

CBC already has Ontario 40 dead a head of the offical numbers.  Tomorrow is going to be a bad day for Canada.

[Madrun Badrun]

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1248032802861268992

[benjipwns]

The curse of the wonk.... To know every statistic.. but always be craving more

Alright, fine. I'll put a line in my stats for this season for "coronavirus, covid-19" and assign it all the left over WARP from the cancelled games.

edit: Actually, I'll do a one-time negative of the absolute value since it's going to break probably ten other columns in this.

[OnlyRegret]

Radio Free Asia reporting the Chinese burning people alive.

Breitbart:

RFA noted that it could not independently verify that the Chinese Communist Party was burning coronavirus patients alive, nor has the Communist Party confirmed or denied the rumors.

fucking CIA ops

[benjipwns]

does that kill the virus or just the patient?

[OnlyRegret]

ideally just the patient, chicoms tryna artificial selection their way to a fireproof bioweapon

[team filler]

the chicoms got it right, elections are garbage and a huge waist of money just to end up with someone you don't like anyways 

[VomKriege]

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1248032802861268992

China currently thinks their first identified case was a man that had it November 17th.

Still at odds with that US intelligence memo from late November that reportedly mentions that patterns of behaviour were visibly impacted in Wuhan by an epidemy.

[shosta]

The index case of an epidemic is different from "the first person who got it".

[VomKriege]

The index case of an epidemic is different from "the first person who got it".

It's technically correct, but considering the ABC news report...

As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting. (...) "Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event"

I guess you could say the virus itself was not identified even if public authorities were aware enough of a sickness for it to be picked up by "wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images" but the timelines don't fit each other too well.

And you know... SARS.

[Transhuman]

If this is how America responds to a natural epidemic imagine how badly they would get steamrolled by actual biological warfare.

[Mandark]

If this is how America responds to a natural epidemic imagine how badly they would get steamrolled by actual biological warfare.

Like we wouldn't be the aggressor.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

And yeah, probably send our troops in right after without proper PPE and wind up bringing it all home.

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