Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[Madrun Badrun]

Think it's gone bat -> pagolin -> human -> tiger -> your mom

[shosta]

Regardless of whether or not it was made in a lab, I'm hoping that this convinces enough people to put more pressure on China and start shifting their supply chains to a bit closer to home.

Okay, actually, I'm super confused about the supply chain talk. The origin of this is the beginning of the year when China was shutting down some of its factories and people were worried that a supply shock would throw the economy into a recession. Actually, the realization that everyone was going to be locked inside while people suffocated to death on their own dead lung cells caused a collapse in demand. If anything, we're not buying enough goods from China right now and that's affecting their economy.

The only reason anyone would want to shift their supply chains away from China right now is because it's a liability that prevents us from becoming hostile with them. If we wanted to start sanctioning them or god forbid go to war, we can't do that if all our intermediate goods are also coming from there... but if we start getting most of our shit from India or Malaysia or Brazil, there isn't any issue anymore. All this is about is laying the groundwork for a future conflict.

There are a lot of people saying right now "this is why we shouldn't put all our factories in china", and I'm like, what? There are so many steps missing in that sentence.

[VomKriege]

Or, you know, having some strategic stockpile or nationalized production line of PPE without having to accept literally any supplier or going into bidding wars with every state on the planet ?

(Only talking about PPE here and maintaining / reopening local production lines.)

[Madrun Badrun]

Moving the supply chain away from China is an implicit suggestion that it would be moved back locally, which appeals to a lot of people (until they go to buy something), and won't be what happens in practice.   But you're right we have to be careful in distinguishing moving away from China, and the motives for doing so, and moving back locally. 

[Madrun Badrun]

Or, you know, having some strategic stockpile or nationalized production line of PPE without having to accept literally any supplier or going into bidding wars with every state on the planet ?

(Only talking about PPE here and maintaining / reopening local production lines.)

I think strategic stockpiles have failed - at least Ontario's did (bought after SARS and left to expire).  It's too dependent on government foresight and not being cut.  Also, the next crisis might not being about PPE but some other thing we don't make.   Having national production is a much stronger solution.   

[Nintex]

Moving production back home with government incentives will also cause a temporary increase in employment and investment which will look good in the overall GDP growth numbers.

[shosta]

edit: ok I'm wrong

[VomKriege]

Or, you know, having some strategic stockpile or nationalized production line of PPE without having to accept literally any supplier or going into bidding wars with every state on the planet ?

(Only talking about PPE here and maintaining / reopening local production lines.)

I think strategic stockpiles have failed - at least Ontario's did (bought after SARS and left to expire).  It's too dependent on government foresight and not being cut.  Also, the next crisis might not being about PPE but some other thing we don't make.   Having national production is a much stronger solution.

Same here, they left the H1N1 stockpile expire and didn't renew it for saving 15m euros a year IIRC.
Next crisis might be something else but healthcare is central & essential and in the last... 20 years ? we had SARS, MERS, Avian flu, Swine flu, a couple of Ebola hotspots and some more I forgot.

[Madrun Badrun]

TBH you could have said last year in the last 20 years we had SARS, MERS, Avian flu, Swine flu, a couple of Ebola and it was fine so we can cut supplies to save 15m euros a year.  Those other outbreaks are really only contextualized in light of this one. 

[shosta]

Ok, I'll accept I'm wrong here; obviously having more production locally would be an advantage. I'm just worried about missing the point about globally shared burdens, long term preparation, crises in institutional trust, and anti-China stalking horses.

[Madrun Badrun]

It's a valid concern.  The main benefits of globalization are cheaper goods and more global stability.  So the question is can we move away from it with westerners accepting the first point and while still trying to keep the status quo on the second point.  This really makes the last half-decade's rise in right nationalism even scarier.

[VomKriege]

3) Whether the factories are here or in China, we still would have to buy the supplies. If you suggest export controls... that only shifts the shortages somewhere else in the world. So if you're saying the plan is to subsidize our ability to export the pain of our lack of planning to other countries, I just can't support that. It's too cynical for me to bear. There is another timeline where we are not fighting over who gets to have all the deaths.

The plan is more to have a local, public owned if necessary, production line (for say, masks) which primary function is to supply national, public demand / a baseline public stockpile. Any surplus could be exported and it would reduce tension on the open market.

It's not export control, because yeah I agree countries seizing supplies that were to be shipped to legitimate clients who placed their order before is morally not great.

It's not as simple as that because I imagine you could argue it transfers the tension to raw materials.

Obviously more costly and less efficient in theory but considering the circus show we're in...

[shosta]

https://twitter.com/getfiscal/status/1250867910194663426

[VomKriege]

[Fifstar]

Don’t worry, Armin Laschet has a plan that allowing 150.000 students back to school next week will not do any harm. 

And I even voted for this guy, that’s what I get for betraying my party due to my problems with their education policy being single-issue scum.

Basing your political decisions on one highly controversial, not even finished study is peak galaxy brain.

Schools have three(!) days to prepare a concept to ensure social distancing measures. Yeah, I deserve all the scorn.   

Laschet gambling on that study to rescue his chances to run for Kanzler is pretty disgusting. I guess it's even more tempting now that the CDU chances to win the next election skyrocketed due to the crisis; can't imagine the Greens to rebound with the economic crisis coming and the SPD will stay a walking corpse.

Although I think there are more studies than the Heinsberg study that support the thesis that children and especially small children are a minor factor in the spread of the virus.

Here is a study from iceland where kids below 10 seem to have a significantly lower risk to be tested positive, both in targeted testing and in open testing: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100

Only speculation from me, but it seems likely that infections are mainly transmitted from symptomatic people, especially from people that cough/transmit larger amounts of virus. People that get infected by small doses also seem to develop more mild course of disease. As most infected kids expel only small doses of virus, it becomes even more unlikely that groups of little kids infect each other, even if their behaviour can't be controlled.

Took a look at that study and it seems like they only did PCR tests which is more or less useless for testing general infection of a population. So infection rate might actually be much higher.

PCR tests are only useful to detect the virus in the first time after the outbreak because the virus moves from the mucosa/pharynx of the mouth and nose (were samples are usually taken) down to the lungs. After that it can only be detected via ct or with antidote tests. Antidote tests aren't reliable enough/in testing stages as of yet.

[OnlyRegret]

A core tenet of self-reliance eh, yeah that vibes with me 

[Fifstar]

The situation in Quebec care homes is really dire - 1200 staff are sick and they are asking the military for relief.

It's probably gotta be similar everywhere. France care homes account for 35% of fatalities now and I think the reporting is still not complete. Wouldn't be surprised it's half by the end. It's probably overestimated a bit because France, AFAIK, just assume all deaths with symptoms since the start of the epidemic is COVID if they have two positives in any of those institutions. I believe Canada does something along those lines.

You had that horrific case of an elder's home in Spain where there wasn't staff anymore when the army went to it and the residents and dead bodies were just... There. Police receiving a tip and finding 17 COVID related deaths in a New Jersey institution. Sweden hard hit there too, etc..

A controversy in the UK because PPE suppliers said they couldn't take orders for Scotland and other home nations under orders from English Health to prioritise supply to England as far as care home staff was concerned. It's been denied officially but there's apparently written evidence one such supplier did interpret something from the administration like that.

For all the talk of "multigenerational homes in Italy with la mama cooking di pasta, that's why they got hit so hard, it's a me journalist Mario !" I suspect concentrating elders may probably be the riskier of the two. In retrospect it's obvious canceling visits should have happened earlier (mid Feb. perhaps...) and there wasn't tests for the staff or residents anyway.

I read one official in italy recently said that the death figure in Italy is actually much higher because deaths in care homes weren't recorded for the most part. So it seems like Italy has a similar situation to other countries and not even (or more likely especially not) Italians believe in the stereotype...

[Madrun Badrun]

Watching this video made me realize I support the US opening up again soon.

[VomKriege]

Yeah it was a bit of shallow punditry and speculation that got thrown out to try to rationalize something that was in flux.

[VomKriege]

Otherwise daily situation in France :
Deaths in hospitals in line with what you'd expect.
Still more beds (ICU or otherwise) being freed which has been a constant for a week or so. Good day for recoveries which now tends to be between 1k to 2k daily.

[Leadbelly]

He is right about the economy being dependent on us. However, if the 'end' is waiting until there is a vaccine, then we are screwed either way.

[VomKriege]

He is right about the economy being dependent on us. However, if the 'end' is waiting until there is a vaccine, then we are screwed either way.

Effective medication slashing some of the severity of the disease would help tremendously in managing this. Is as likely, if not more, as a vaccine and could come sooner, as far as I understand.

[Leadbelly]

Yeah. We certainly need something right now.

[OnlyRegret]

Alberta stats, latest available. AHS doing good here regardless of government, 

Trends forming:
-fatality rate under 50s is very low
-fatality rates start climbing swiftly above 50s, reaching very high % fast
-hospitalization rates starts climbing alarmingly fast from as low as the 30s (!!!)

Takeway:
-low overall fatality rate sensitive to high skewing off demographics, hospitalization rate remains concerning
-main concern with curve flattening is to avoid crushing healthcare resources because a hospitalization rate of 6% for a city of say 2 million people means 120,000 people burdening the hospital in addition to normal tax if everyone gets sick

[Flannel Boy]

Over 1/10th of 1% of New York City's population has died from COVID-19.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

[shosta]

He is right about the economy being dependent on us. However, if the 'end' is waiting until there is a vaccine, then we are screwed either way.

this is the umpteenth time you've said something like this. Just give people money to buy stuff and give people more money if they're working. Demand will recover so investment will recover. Investment will lead to hiring. The only thing that would stop a recovery is a lack of willpower.

[toku]

My brother was taking tests all week through zoom or whatever only for schools to go "fuck it, you graduate already, all you other fucks? We'll just give you the exact same grades last semester and if you didn't pass, we'll just round out to you passing. Have a great summer and stay inside" leaving all of us shook.

lmao

[toku]

Tell him to keep plugging his guitar stuff man, legit cool. Bless.

[toku]

https://twitter.com/DeionHD/status/1250595101111390209

[naff]

quarantine is still not as boring as dbzzzzzz

[Leadbelly]

He is right about the economy being dependent on us. However, if the 'end' is waiting until there is a vaccine, then we are screwed either way.

this is the umpteenth time you've said something like this. Just give people money to buy stuff and give people more money if they're working. Demand will recover so investment will recover. Investment will lead to hiring. The only thing that would stop a recovery is a lack of willpower.

You don't think the timescale matters?

- 1 month
- 3 months
- 18 months

Same difference right?

[shosta]

You don't think the timescale matters?

- 1 month
- 3 months
- 18 months

Same difference right?

As long as there is food and energy we can do it indefinitely. The longer the crisis takes the harder hit the economy will be but all of that is irrelevant compared to the quantity of life saved. I really don't understand your thinking; if you made it off the titanic on a life raft, would you complain that your vacation was ruined, or would you be grateful that you survived?

[team filler]

 

[thisismyusername]

if you made it off the titanic on a life raft, would you complain that your vacation was ruined, or would you be grateful that you survived?

Why not both?

But fundamentally: Fuck the economy. Let it tank and show that money is just a social construct.

[Nintex]

A lot of countries made mistakes but Jair Bolsonaro is still unchallenged in running the worst pandemic response in recorded history.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1250893520585535488

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/ambiej/status/1250546047904034816

[Leadbelly]

You don't think the timescale matters?

- 1 month
- 3 months
- 18 months

Same difference right?

As long as there is food and energy we can do it indefinitely. The longer the crisis takes the harder hit the economy will be but all of that is irrelevant compared to the quantity of life saved. I really don't understand your thinking; if you made it off the titanic on a life raft, would you complain that your vacation was ruined, or would you be grateful that you survived?

Again, I wish for the best case scenario of this just like everyone else. And hope the least people die of this as possible. And the analogy I would use to describe my way of thinking is more like making it off the titanic on a life raft, and then dying of pneumonia from the cold. lol

I hope things recover quickly. I only express concern that it doesn't. I'm not wishing this shit to happen. What I will say though is, I genuinely believe there may come a point when will have to make a cost/benefit analysis on this. I don't want people to die, but then I don't want people to have to suffer the potential economic consequences of our actions either. It would indeed be like escaping death from the Titanic only to die of pneumonia.

[Occam]

3,860 Covid-19 deaths in the USA today, and the day isn't over.

[Mandark]

You don't think the timescale matters?

- 1 month
- 3 months
- 18 months

Same difference right?

Matters to what?

The physical infrastructure and the human capital needed to extract value from it will be there when we emerge, whether the timescale is 1, 3, or 18 months.

A hangover depression that occurs after we emerge from this comes down to 1) people's reticence to resume certain types of consumption (live entertainment, travel, etc.) and 2) a cascading effect of bankruptcies.

The first won't be made any better by "reopening" sooner and causing more deaths. The second is purely a product of financial arrangements that we could change as a matter of policy if we wanted to. That's what shost means by willpower.

[shosta]

Again, I wish for the best case scenario of this just like everyone else. And hope the least people die of this as possible. And the analogy I would use to describe my way of thinking is more like making it off the titanic on a life raft, and then dying of pneumonia from the cold. lol

I hope things recover quickly. I only express concern that it doesn't. I'm not wishing this shit to happen. What I will say though, is I genuinely believe there may come a point when will have to make a cost/benefit analysis on this. I don't want people to die, but then I don't want the people to have to suffer the potential economic consequences of our actions either. It would indeed be like escaping death from the Titanic only to die of pneumonia.

The one thing that has become apparent in this crisis is that, there is no winning in this situation. It could turn out that the economic collapse that follows might have far greater impact on the world and lasting damage than the virus did.

Preventing millions of people from dying is the win. There is no realistic amount of economic damage that could happen that would at all be comparable to a Holocaust sized murder. It's objectively different. Even 50% reduction in GDP for five, six years would be better than millions of people dying. Period. And I don't even think it would be that long because, like I said, with enough willpower you can get things going again. Do you know how fast growth was in the postwar period?

[Nintex]

The plan to reopen has been released

https://www.scribd.com/document/456756506/Trump-releases-Opening-Up-America-Again-guidelines

Doesn't seem much different from most other countries.
Gradually open stuff up again but keep social distancing etc. in place.

[VomKriege]

Economy yadda yadda...
I'm more worried for our mental health well being.

[shosta]

Holocaust

Godwin's law has been activated. F

The second is purely a product of financial arrangements that we could change as a matter of policy if we wanted to. That's what shost means by willpower.

The liabilities aspect is half of it. The other half of what I was thinking about was commitment to fiscal stimulus, as opposed to the half-assed stuff we saw in 2009.

[Himu]

I'm not going to get my stimulus check thanks to student loans.

At least I'll likely get unemployment.

Still though, I'm ready to cut a bitch.

[Nintex]

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Leadbelly]

Again, I wish for the best case scenario of this just like everyone else. And hope the least people die of this as possible. And the analogy I would use to describe my way of thinking is more like making it off the titanic on a life raft, and then dying of pneumonia from the cold. lol

I hope things recover quickly. I only express concern that it doesn't. I'm not wishing this shit to happen. What I will say though, is I genuinely believe there may come a point when will have to make a cost/benefit analysis on this. I don't want people to die, but then I don't want the people to have to suffer the potential economic consequences of our actions either. It would indeed be like escaping death from the Titanic only to die of pneumonia.

The one thing that has become apparent in this crisis is that, there is no winning in this situation. It could turn out that the economic collapse that follows might have far greater impact on the world and lasting damage than the virus did.

Preventing millions of people from dying is the win. There is no realistic amount of economic damage that could happen that would at all be comparable to a Holocaust sized murder. It's objectively different. Even 50% reduction in GDP for five, six years would be better than millions of people dying. Period. And I don't even think it would be that long because, like I said, with enough willpower you can get things going again. Do you know how fast growth was in the postwar period?

You know that post you made where you were sarcastically talking about poverty killing more people? It was true nonetheless. lol

9 million people last year died of hunger. Hunger relating to poverty is the number 1 killer in the world. I'm not an economist, but it strikes me that a rapidly slowing global economy will have detrimental effects in developing countries.

In terms of Covid-19 we simply don't know how many it could potentially kill. Which is why it is a good idea to start large scale testing as soon as possible. We need to know what we are dealing with so that we can more accurately decide what is the best course of action.

[Madrun Badrun]

Matters to what?

The physical infrastructure and the human capital needed to extract value from it will be there when we emerge

Except for the 5G towers and the lizard people installing them   

[Madrun Badrun]

3,860 Covid-19 deaths in the USA today, and the day isn't over.

What's your source?  world meters is just over 2000 today. 

[shosta]

You know that post you made where you were sarcastically talking about poverty killing more people? It was true nonetheless. lol

The mortality rate actually went down in the US during the Great Depression.

9 million people last year died of hunger. Hunger relating to poverty is the number 1 killer in the world. I'm not an economist, but it strikes me that a rapidly slowing global economy will have detrimental effects in developing countries.

The people primarily dying of hunger aren't the ones impacted by lockdowns, they're in regions impacted by climate-change or war-torn countries like Syria and Yemen. But anyway, they're not hungry because they're not working, they're hungry because we don't give them food. So give them food. Give everyone food. There's enough food on Earth to feed everyone.

If you're worried that a global depression is going to hurt a lot of people, give them money to buy the stuff that's still being produced. That's what I keep trying to tell you. It's willpower. Whether other people suffer is not their choice, it's ours.

In terms of Covid-19 we simply don't know how many it could potentially kill. Which is why it is a good idea to start large scale testing as soon as possible. We need to know what we are dealing with so that we can more accurately decide what is the best course of action.

Yes we do. We've got the mortality rate down to about an order of magnitude. It's 1% to 3%. That's been consistent for almost half a year now.

[Nintex]

Once you get the number of infected down to a level that is comparable to other diseases that are out there such as the flu is it 'safe' to open again.
The big challenge will be is to keep it under control until there's a vaccine or it dies out.

The economy is probably running at about ~15% - 20% now. If you can get that up to 70% or even 90% you can easier fill in the gaps and aim your stimulus and aid to where it is most needed.
For a lot of jobs working from home will remain the new normal for a long while though and some companies will probably start to spread out their operations and return production back home.

We'll probably see far less open space offices in the future and people have to continue to keep their distance in public places and self quarantine when they have flu like symptoms.

Large events, non-essential travel to other countries? Forget about it until at least next year.

[Mandark]

If you think lower consumption levels in the US would cause death by starvation in poor countries, maybe ask what mechanism is linking the two things, and whether it could be bypassed.

[shosta]

maybe ask what mechanism is linking the two things

length of bootstraps

and whether it could be bypassed.

tug the bootstraps harder

[Madrun Badrun]

A lack of US productivity would cause starvation in poor counties because there will be no foreign aid without American productivity.  This could be bypassed if poor counties just paid their depts and worked hard themselves.   

[Madrun Badrun]

Oh shit he beat me to it.  Asshole.  I think that was an unfair win because I re-typed stuff instead of quoting and you guys know typing is hard for me. 

[Mandark]

You're both getting likes as part of our effort to prop up the Bore's economy.

[Leadbelly]

You know that post you made where you were sarcastically talking about poverty killing more people? It was true nonetheless. lol

The mortality rate actually went down in the US during the Great Depression.

9 million people last year died of hunger. Hunger relating to poverty is the number 1 killer in the world. I'm not an economist, but it strikes me that a rapidly slowing global economy will have detrimental effects in developing countries.

The people primarily dying of hunger aren't the ones impacted by lockdowns, they're in regions impacted by climate-change or war-torn countries like Syria and Yemen. But anyway, they're not hungry because they're not working, they're hungry because we don't give them food. So give them food. Give everyone food. There's enough food on Earth to feed everyone.

If you're worried that a global depression is going to hurt a lot of people, give them money to buy the stuff that's still being produced. That's what I keep trying to tell you. It's willpower. Whether other people suffer is not their choice, it's ours.

In terms of Covid-19 we simply don't know how many it could potentially kill. Which is why it is a good idea to start large scale testing as soon as possible. We need to know what we are dealing with so that we can more accurately decide what is the best course of action.

Yes we do. We've got the mortality rate down to about an order of magnitude. It's 1% to 3%. That's been consistent for almost half a year now.

Millions of people in India were ordered back to their homes because of lockdown. Many of India's poor had to walk back to their villages miles away on foot.

India's poor worst hit

But at the same time, the lockdown, with strict limits on activity, has been devastating for the economy - and for India's poor.

Millions of daily wage labourers suddenly lost their jobs, forcing hundreds of thousands to make the long trek back to their home villages, hundreds of kilometres away, often on foot.

Some died on the way, while others were shunned by locals when they made it back to their villages. One viral clip showed a group of migrants being hosed down with chemicals.

Others have been stranded in cities in cramped, unsanitary conditions where the virus could spread quickly.

New Delhi alone is providing hundreds of thousands of free meals to help those for whom the lockdown means immediate hunger.

Farmers have complained of a lack of workers to harvest crops while the grounding of thousands of trucks by the lockdown have hampered food transport.

Farms, still the bedrock of the Indian economy, are heading into their most important harvest time of the year, when many villages earn enough money to finance themselves for months to come.
india lockdown
The lockdown, with strict limits on activity, has been devastating for the economy [Harish Tyagi/EPA]
'Invisible assassin'

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das called the coronavirus an "invisible assassin" that could wreak havoc on Asia's third-biggest economy.

The national restaurants association, which said its members employed seven million people, warned on Monday there could be "social unrest" if it did not receive financial relief.

The commerce ministry has also reportedly urged the government to consider restarting more activities "with reasonable safeguards" even if the lockdown is extended.

Even before the pandemic, the Indian economy was stuttering with unemployment at its highest in decades.

Some analysts have predicted growth could slump to 1.5-2 percent this year - well below the level needed to provide jobs for the millions coming into the labour market each month.

Modi's announcement came amid debates in countries around the world on how to lift restrictions while avoiding a spike in new infections.

French President Emmanuel Macron extended a tight lockdown in France by another month, but Italy and Austria are reopening some shops, and Spain is restarting construction and factory work.

World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned against rushing headlong into lifting restrictions, stressing that only a vaccine can fully halt the spread.
india lockdown
People in a queue for free food distributed by volunteers during a lockdown in Dwarka, New Delhi

The ramifications of a prolonged lockdown, potentially lasting over 18 months, could be disastrous. It really is a complex issue.

[Nintex]

Well Trump just wants every seat in every restaurant occupied and doesn't like this new normal. 

[Mandark]

did you just google "india poor coronavirus"

[Tripon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jc_bradbury/status/1250922058852245507

[shosta]

The ramifications of a prolonged lockdown, potentially lasting over 18 months, could be disastrous. It really is a complex issue.

I feel like you're not listening. If India has trouble feeding itself, we should feed India. Which we are able to do. China is India's northern neighbor, has eliminated its coronavirus problem, and is a major food exporter. They can provide relief if they choose to.

And this isn't going to last 18 months. Show me one person anywhere who says that a TOTAL LOCKDOWN is going to last 18 months everywhere. More likely we have a year of localized lockdowns and travel restrictions.