To be fair, the 2022 midterms were a surprising success overall for the party in power despite the slim loss of the house. Largely driven by abortion, concerns about democracy, and anti-Trump sentiment. Biden may have been in risk of a primary challenge if a red wave had happened, but I think he's safe now (barring a health issue of course).
I'm not concerned about general election polls in fall 2023. As I've said before, show me a path of Trump winning MI/PA/WI. I don't see one. It'll be a high turnout election and an onslaught of early voting/mail ballots will kill republicans again. Am I thrilled about Biden? No. At the same time he has been a surprisingly good and effective president.
I also think it's clear some pro-Trump groups are flooding junk polls, similarly to what happened last fall. No, Trump isn't winning 12% of the black vote. No, Trump isn't winning suburban women. Trump isn't really running a campaign for president right now, he's running an influence operation. Is he beating DeSantis? Yes. But given the recent scramble from his people to put boots on the ground in Iowa it seems like they feel something is off. The Biden/general election polls are basically him projecting an aura of strength but that shit falls apart if he loses Iowa. And I do expect that he will lose Iowa; Evangelicals seem to have moved on from him. Do I think Trump wins the nom? I think he starts winning immediately after Iowa, sweeps the south on Super Tuesday, and wins most Midwest primaries. Basically I think we're gonna see a slightly weaker version of what he did in 2016, and DeSantis will end up retreating to Florida for a last stand on March 19th.
