I realized last night a little too late that Iran's best strategy right now is to provoke and march to war. If they continue to limp under the crippling sanctions regime, they'd be critically vulnerable, they risk social unrest, and they wouldn't be able to defend themselves or their interests in the region. They have to play hardball now and either make Trump or Europe blink in the face of the unacceptable costs of a major war in the middle east or do serious harm against their enemies in a bid to survive.
If they do nothing at all, that's a 100% chance of getting fucked into oblivion. If they escalate, there's a small (20%? 33%?) chance they can get some kind of deal back. Something that also contributes to this calculus is Trump revealing in Venezuela that he has no stomach for enforcing a red line or a concrete goal if it means real conflict. That weakens his hand significantly - maybe the Iranians wouldn't have been so emboldened otherwise.
Anyway, if those are your options, you might as well YOLO it. This is what happens when your leadership doesn't understand the incentives they're setting up. Then again, I also read some analysis that Pompeo and Bolton do expect a war to happen and are misleading Trump into thinking his brinkmanship will work. It's just fucked all around.
