Wait, Trump's winning? Nintex can you please break this down for us?
The general consensus was that Democratic/Biden voters would vote early or by mail and Trump/Republican voters would vote in person and wait for Election day.
Now take a state like Wisconsin where the youth vote is fairly low. Of which according to the polls 61% of young voters would vote early and 39% would vote on Election Day.
Why would they decide to wait until election day to cast their vote or aren't they going to show up after all?
Trump carried the state by 30k votes last time. What if Biden has 152k youth votes less than Clinton? Of which most likely tilt Democratic?
What if you extrapolate that throughout the rustbelt? What does a 29% drop in turn-out among the youth look like or even a 10% or 5% drop?
You'll end up with what Trafalgar and Trump's own pollster are polling, not only a Trump electoral college victory but a 1% or 2% popular vote victory.
Unless millions of Republicans have decided to vote for Biden.
This is what the wall streets dudes have been trying to tell Nate and the others using their own data. The early voting data does not match the polls, at all.
They point to the lockdown of college campuses and universities as a probable cause for a collapse in the youth vote because that's where the Democrats are usually doing the voter registration drives.
Usually you would find out about this looking at the attendance of rallies and political events.
