Corona Thread |OT| Please scream inside your heart

[Akala]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1593543253

Hill said there was a way for the UK to secure supplies of this and other drugs during the pandemic, through what is known as a compulsory licence, which overrides the intellectual property rights of the company. That would allow the UK government to buy from generic companies in Bangladesh or India, where Gilead’s patent is not recognised.

 

[Phoenix Dark]

https://twitter.com/NicoleSGrigg/status/1276705287060086785

Looot of old people about to be left to die simply because folks couldn't chill the fuck out and wear masks. Nothing asked or required was outrageous. No one was being asked to die on a beach in Normandy. No one was asked to stop buying meat to support the war effort. You were asked to wear a mask, and couldn't do it.
 

[Stro]

Death panels are back bayBEEEE

[Cindi Mayweather]

Nate Silver's going to get downgraded to Nate Iron at this rate. (There is already a Nate Bronze which is Nate Cohn at the NY Times).

Where  is Nate Gold when we need him?

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1278088609715888128

[Steve Contra]

My ex wife’s sister in law lives in Arizona and she’s in a huge fight with her family who are insisting that her and her kids come to a huge family reunion in Idaho in two weeks. These are the dumbest fucking people alive.

[Stro]

A family reunion to wipe out the entire family line


palpatineironic.gif

[Akala]

MIL works in a library that was just shut down as an employee tested positive. 

also she was mandated to get tested but they charged her $100 wtf. 

[Cindi Mayweather]

My ex wife’s sister in law lives in Arizona and she’s in a huge fight with her family who are insisting that her and her kids come to a huge family reunion in Idaho in two weeks. These are the dumbest fucking people alive.

Ex wife

[Madrun Badrun]

At +45,250 today.  US hasn't been under 40K in the last 6 days including today. 

[Phoenix Dark]

My ex wife’s sister in law lives in Arizona and she’s in a huge fight with her family who are insisting that her and her kids come to a huge family reunion in Idaho in two weeks. These are the dumbest fucking people alive.

Ex wife

I didn't know this

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases

[Steve Contra]

My ex wife’s sister in law lives in Arizona and she’s in a huge fight with her family who are insisting that her and her kids come to a huge family reunion in Idaho in two weeks. These are the dumbest fucking people alive.

Ex wife

I didn't know this

it’s been like two and a half years. We still own a house together and are roommates 🤷‍♀️

[naff]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases

makes sense for various reasons when you're looking at stats for the entire populace of an area; one salient point they touch on being the protests resulted in further business closures and more reason for those not on the streets (the majority of people tbh) to isolate further.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

DEMONSTRATING CAN be a dangerous activity, even in the best of circumstances. During a pandemic, it can be lethal. When mass protests against police brutality broke out in America earlier this month, following the death of George Floyd at the hands of policemen in Minneapolis, public-health experts worried they would lead to a surge in infections. Anthony Fauci, a leading member of the White House’s coronavirus task-force, called the protests “the perfect set-up” for the spread of the virus. Eric Garcetti, the mayor of Los Angeles, warned that the gatherings could become “super-spreader events”.

This was more than scaremongering. SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes covid-19, is spread through droplets of moisture produced when an infected person speaks, coughs or sneezes. Large, crowded gatherings can contribute to the spread of the virus, especially when those involved are shouting and chanting slogans—projecting droplets farther into the air. Police tactics such as spraying tear-gas, herding protesters into contained areas and rounding up troublemakers into police vans and jail cells also increase the risk of infection.

But the available evidence suggests that this month’s Black Lives Matter protests have not contributed to a surge in covid-19 cases. In a new working paper, researchers from Bentley University, the University of Colorado and San Diego State University used mobile-phone data from SafeGraph, a geolocation data firm, and covid-19 case data from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention to determine whether the protests were associated with less social-distancing behaviour and more covid-19 cases. In fact, the opposite was true.

Using data from 315 American cities with at least 100,000 people, covering the period mid-May to mid-June, the researchers compared the experience of the 281 cities where protests erupted with the 34 where they did not. One third of protesting cities saw large-scale gatherings with 1,000 or more attendees, making those particular regions more susceptible to another outbreak. Nonetheless, they found that the protests had no significant effect one way or the other on the incidence of covid-19.

They also found one possible—and surprising-—reason for this. Protests were actually associated with an increase in social-distancing behaviour; for example, residents overall spent an additional 0.18 hours, or 11 minutes, per day at home (see chart). In other words, any time that residents spent protesting in the streets was more than offset by time other people spent baking bread and watching Netflix.
These results could be driven by a number of factors. Those choosing not to protest might have avoided going outside because of concern for their personal safety amid increased crime and violence. That some businesses were temporarily closed because of looting made going out even less appealing. Some residents may have stayed home because of a higher perceived risk of catching the coronavirus. Finally, increased road closures and blockages may have also discouraged citizens from leaving their homes.

As cases soar across the country, particularly in states such as Texas and Arizona, many Americans will be eager to point fingers. So far, the evidence suggests that protesters are not to blame.

[close]

[Great Rumbler]

Texas just had its worst day so far: 7,959 compared to a previous high of 6,177 on June 24.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/ccaarrllooss/status/1278015274227122177

[CatsCatsCats]

I really fucking miss staying safe in the woods away from the crazies. I absolutely do not trust the dumbshits I work with to report if they’re sick.

[OnlyRegret]

https://twitter.com/10TampaBay/status/1276527556825620480

I was going to take that bet from either James or shosta (50,000 US cases per day by Tuesday). Dodged a bullet.

Note to self: Do not take bets and build a wall around Canada.

So... about that

[Madrun Badrun]

Will hit 50k this week.

[CatsCatsCats]

The mayor of the city I drive into for groceries:

A personal statement by me as the Mayor of Sandy and not a representation of feelings by our collective Sandy City Council:

The City of Sandy received notice today threatening legal action from the Oregon Health Authority if we don’t comply with the Governors Executive Order and cancel our annual Independence Day Fireworks display. My gut instinct is to fight this, but as your mayor I can’t allow your tax dollars to go to a costly legal battle with so many other demands on our city. Our Governor and her power-hungry bureaucracy have bullied our citizens out of being able to celebrate Independence Day. I am devastated to announce the celebration is cancelled.

Independence Day is more than fireworks and ice cream. It is the spark that ignited the most revered democracy in the history of the world. We celebrate because without it, we would have remained under the thumb of our oppressors and would have never inspired democracy and freedom in so many places around the globe. Without it, there would be no Constitution or Bill of Rights. Without it, we would not enjoy the liberty and freedom we have today. Or at least the liberty and freedom we are supposed to have.

I am more than disappointed that our Governor looks the other way as Portland’s “peaceful” rioters have turned that city into a warzone of boarded-up buildings, terrified commuters and lawless streets. While self-described anarchists set fires and deface private and public property, Governor Brown has turned her attention to stop families in Sandy from safely enjoying a sense of community we haven’t been able to share in many months. Apparently, a seven year-old with a sparkler is a greater threat to her political ambitions than an angry rioter pelting police with rocks and balloons full of urine.

We are Sandy, Oregon. Not Portland. Not Salem. The governor’s bully tactics to force you back into the shadow of fear and oppression are exactly what our founding fathers fought against when we won our Independence. I encourage all residents of Sandy to safely celebrate Independence Day neighborhood by neighborhood. Come together as communities in the way our founding fathers did and have the discussions about whether we will allow this tyrannical Governor to stop our personal freedoms, or whether we will insist on the liberty of freedom we are guaranteed. God bless you and your families this Independence Day.

https://www.facebook.com/247565365737834/posts/874634279697603/

[EchoRin]

Appreciate the response @Hyoushi

[Oblivion]

Nate Silver's going to get downgraded to Nate Iron at this rate. (There is already a Nate Bronze which is Nate Cohn at the NY Times).

Where  is Nate Gold when we need him?

i thought nate cohn WAS nate gold? 

[Oblivion]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases

makes sense for various reasons when you're looking at stats for the entire populace of an area; one salient point they touch on being the protests resulted in further business closures and more reason for those not on the streets (the majority of people tbh) to isolate further.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

DEMONSTRATING CAN be a dangerous activity, even in the best of circumstances. During a pandemic, it can be lethal. When mass protests against police brutality broke out in America earlier this month, following the death of George Floyd at the hands of policemen in Minneapolis, public-health experts worried they would lead to a surge in infections. Anthony Fauci, a leading member of the White House’s coronavirus task-force, called the protests “the perfect set-up” for the spread of the virus. Eric Garcetti, the mayor of Los Angeles, warned that the gatherings could become “super-spreader events”.

This was more than scaremongering. SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes covid-19, is spread through droplets of moisture produced when an infected person speaks, coughs or sneezes. Large, crowded gatherings can contribute to the spread of the virus, especially when those involved are shouting and chanting slogans—projecting droplets farther into the air. Police tactics such as spraying tear-gas, herding protesters into contained areas and rounding up troublemakers into police vans and jail cells also increase the risk of infection.

But the available evidence suggests that this month’s Black Lives Matter protests have not contributed to a surge in covid-19 cases. In a new working paper, researchers from Bentley University, the University of Colorado and San Diego State University used mobile-phone data from SafeGraph, a geolocation data firm, and covid-19 case data from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention to determine whether the protests were associated with less social-distancing behaviour and more covid-19 cases. In fact, the opposite was true.

Using data from 315 American cities with at least 100,000 people, covering the period mid-May to mid-June, the researchers compared the experience of the 281 cities where protests erupted with the 34 where they did not. One third of protesting cities saw large-scale gatherings with 1,000 or more attendees, making those particular regions more susceptible to another outbreak. Nonetheless, they found that the protests had no significant effect one way or the other on the incidence of covid-19.

They also found one possible—and surprising-—reason for this. Protests were actually associated with an increase in social-distancing behaviour; for example, residents overall spent an additional 0.18 hours, or 11 minutes, per day at home (see chart). In other words, any time that residents spent protesting in the streets was more than offset by time other people spent baking bread and watching Netflix.
These results could be driven by a number of factors. Those choosing not to protest might have avoided going outside because of concern for their personal safety amid increased crime and violence. That some businesses were temporarily closed because of looting made going out even less appealing. Some residents may have stayed home because of a higher perceived risk of catching the coronavirus. Finally, increased road closures and blockages may have also discouraged citizens from leaving their homes.

As cases soar across the country, particularly in states such as Texas and Arizona, many Americans will be eager to point fingers. So far, the evidence suggests that protesters are not to blame.

[close]

not surprising. the protesters have demonstrated more basic responsibility when it comes to shit like wearing masks than any MAGA chud in the country

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-june-idUSKBN2412PN?utm_source=reddit.com

Coronavirus cases more than doubled in 14 U.S. states in the month of June, including California, Florida and Texas, a Reuters analysis on Tuesday showed.

Arizona recorded the biggest jump in cases for the month at 294%, followed by South Carolina at 200% and Arkansas at 179%. Cases also more than doubled in Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon and Utah.

Nationally cases rose by at least 46% and deaths increased by 21%.


Cases increased by less than 10% in June in just four states - New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey.

New York, once the epicenter of the U.S. epidemic, saw cases rise by about 6% in June - the lowest rate in the country - after strict lockdown and social distancing measures were put in place to help bring the disease under control.

[T-Short]

Appreciate the response @Hyoushi

Give me a shout if you are curious about any specifics!

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/Outlookindia/status/1278178836421718018

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/conspiracy-mentality-linked-to-non-compliance-with-official-but-not-unofficial-coronavirus-prevention-measures-57186

[Madrun Badrun]

I would like this trend.  Sports to re-open, just broadcasted from Canada

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1278297602128216067

Send the NFL to Saskatchewan, I say: make them play on big fields. 

[ToxicAdam]

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1276628146092232712

So, do we need to start looking at pneumonia deaths/excessive death rates for all of 2019 also?  But only one sample? Seems like there should be more if they look.

[Flannel Boy]

"There was the potential for a false positive due to the virus’ similarities with other respiratory infections."

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/10TampaBay/status/1276527556825620480

I was going to take that bet from either James or shosta (50,000 US cases per day by Tuesday). Dodged a bullet.

Note to self: Do not take bets and build a wall around Canada.

So... about that

+46,042

I was going to take that bet from either James or shosta (50,000 US cases per day by Tuesday). Dodged a bullet.

are you dumb

shosta cannot lose.

[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1276628146092232712

Yeah, I just don't see this being possible. We saw what a covid outbreak does to hospitals in major cities, they get completely overwhelmed in short order. None of that was happening last year.

[Pissy F Benny]

Thats what the globalists want you to believe

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html

[Joe Molotov]

Worried about my dad, he's been running a fever since Saturday. The doctor gave him antibiotics, but they haven't done anything. He's trying to get a COVID test scheduled today, but it might be next week before he knows anything and meanwhile one of their neighbors tested positive.

[Madrun Badrun]

Hope he gets better soon dude. 

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1278126553428262914

[Madrun Badrun]

Arizona +4,877 big yikes and 88 deaths, which is very very bad.  They are also at 89% ICU capacity. 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/07/01/arizona-coronavirus-update-july-1-new-cases-and-deaths-break-records/5355800002/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&cid=twitter_azcentral

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53228134

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1277785912806526976

The gang endorses masks

[Madrun Badrun]

California is +9,740 and 110 deaths.  https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fauci-gives-grim-warning-texas-224935502.html

Seems like that 50K bet will be a day off. 

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.newsweek.com/houston-icus-reach-102-capacity-hospitals-face-crisis-amid-coronavirus-surge-1514800

Houston ICUs Reach 102% Capacity

"We are actively trying to transfer out ICU [intensive care unit] and surge patients that are COVID positive and under investigation, just because we don't have the capacity to treat those patients," McMurray-Horton said.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/01/coronavirus-texas-houston-hospitals-cases-surge/

HOUSTON — At Lyndon B. Johnson Hospital on Sunday, the medical staff ran out of both space for new coronavirus patients and a key drug needed to treat them. With no open beds at the public hospital, a dozen COVID-19 patients who were in need of intensive care were stuck in the emergency room, awaiting transfers to other Houston area hospitals, according to a note sent to the staff and shared with reporters.

 Houston region, where the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 has nearly quadrupled since Memorial Day. As of Tuesday, more than 3,000 people were hospitalized for the coronavirus in the region, including nearly 800 in intensive care.

What’s happening in Houston draws eerie parallels to New York City in late March, when every day brought steep increases in the number of patients seeking care at overburdened hospitals — though, so far, with far fewer deaths. But as coronavirus cases surge in Texas, state officials here have not reimplemented the same lockdown measures that experts say helped bring New York’s outbreak under control, raising concern among public health officials that Houston won’t be able to flatten the curve.

[Stro]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1278126553428262914

I think you have to start charging people with a crime for this

[Cauliflower Of Love]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1278126553428262914

I think you have to start charging people with a crime for this

Public intoxication.




Cause it's Corona, and they have it.

Get it? Corona is a beer, and it's also the virus.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.iheartradio.ca/am800/news/health-unit-closes-local-farm-after-testing-reveals-191-covid-19-cases-1.12862608

[Raist]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases

I find that extremely unlikely. Especially with the context of new cases exploding in the US in the past few weeks.

[Raist]

Can't read the whole thing, it's behind a paywall / login so fuck that.

I'm obviously not saying that the massive uptick was caused by the protests, but when you have such an increase in several states that had loads of protests going on I don't think you can reasonably claim there was no effect at all. How do you even begin to disentangle that.

Having hundreds of people packed like sardines in the streets for hours isn't exactly ideal circumstances. Outdoors or not.

[Madrun Badrun]

Ya, the issue is not whether is spread the virus, it certainly did, it's a matter of net spread, and spread in comparison to reopening. 

I doubt it had a net negative too, but I also don't think it is the main culprit to the current situation - which was a minimal lockdown and reopening too soon and too fast. 

The other issue is can you find the protests as a statistically significant source of an uptick - that I also doubt.  Logically we can say sure, but I don't think there is a way to prove that.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://la.eater.com/2020/7/1/21310136/los-angeles-restaurant-dining-room-closures-three-weeks-covid-19-pandemic-july-2020

[Mandark]

One thing that's clear just by glancing at the county-level data is that whatever effect the protests had it's dwarfed by other factors.

[Raist]

I think the problem with this kind of social """sciences""" studies is that it's always based on a fuckload of assumptions and making up formulas on the fly. Let alone having a proper control of all relevant parameters. I'm gonna guess they didn't ask anyone joining the protests if they also actually lived there, and so on. And stuff like the increase in "stay at home" time is just laughable

In any case, in circumstances like these I don't think the point is "oh but that's not nearly as bad as this or that other thing", because that's just a "rules for thee not for me" argument. Anything that will contribute to community spreading is just real fucking bad.

[Tripon]

The L.A. County health officer stated that the recent protests (Some of which are on going) did contribute to the spread of Coronavirus, but she or the county couldn't give a good estimate because they have stated they don't have the ability to count outdoor events or something to that effect.


Back on June 23rd.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-23/lapd-coronavirus-cases-spike-adding-to-debate-over-role-of-protests-in-spread

Coronavirus infections among Los Angeles police officers spiked in recent weeks, reflecting a broader increase in cases regionally and raising fresh questions about the role of protests in the spread.

Police officials have said that officers were exposed on skirmish lines as they worked to disperse screaming crowds. Protesters say officers recklessly arrested people en masse without wearing masks, exposing not just themselves but others.

In the last week, positive cases within the LAPD workforce jumped from 170 to 206, Chief Michel Moore told the civilian Police Commission on Tuesday.

“This was a 21% increase and is about twice the rate of our historic rate of change over the history of the pandemic,” he said.

L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer recently said it is “highly likely” that the recent overall increase in positive cases is related in part to the mass protests.

Ferrer also suggested that an increase in social gatherings and the opening of more businesses after weeks of stay-at-home and closure orders has likely played a role. Moore also cited such factors.

Los Angeles County officials reported more than 2,000 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, bringing the total number to more than 88,200. Nearly 3,200 have died.

----

The increase in transmission likely occurred sometime around the week of Memorial Day week or shortly thereafter. At the time, L.A. County officials decided to gradually reopen the economy because the data were stable, with no increases in hospitalizations and a decline in new deaths, Ferrer said.

But unfortunately, people and businesses haven’t been adhering to health orders to wear masks in public and stay away from crowded situations. Just this past weekend, masks or face shields were not being worn by workers at about half of inspected restaurants and bars. Officials have also seen examples of overcrowding at public spaces.

“I’ve had an explosion of new outbreaks in workplaces. One that got shut down this past weekend, it had over 115 infections. Again, very little compliance with the directives on how to operate a factory with as much safety as possible,” Ferrer said.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-29/l-a-county-issues-dire-warning-amid-alarming-increases-in-coronavirus

[Tripon]

SACRAMENTO —  Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday ordered tougher restrictions for much of the state, requiring 19 counties experiencing increased spread of coronavirus to halt visits to indoor restaurants, wineries and tasting rooms, entertainment centers, movie theaters, zoos, museums and card rooms.
The governor is imposing the restrictions on indoor activities in advance of the July 4 holiday weekend, when officials fear disaster if Californians continue to ignore safety guidelines and businesses remain open in areas already experiencing significant spikes in COVID-19 infections. Newsom is also recommending the cancellation of all fireworks shows on the Fourth of July in the affected counties, and is urging all Californians to rethink having large get-togethers with friends and neighbors to celebrate the holiday.

“This doesn’t mean restaurants are shut down,” Newsom said. “It means that we’re trying to take the activities, as many activities as we can -- these mixed activities, these concentrated activities — and move them outdoors, which is a way of mitigating the spread of this virus.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-01/newsom-imposes-new-rollbacks-of-californias-coronavirus-reopening

[Mandark]

In any case, in circumstances like these I don't think the point is "oh but that's not nearly as bad as this or that other thing", because that's just a "rules for thee not for me" argument. Anything that will contribute to community spreading is just real fucking bad.

I don't agree. Degree matters, especially differences in degree that look like this, and especially when people and policymakers are trying to sort out which restrictions should be maintained and which we can ease up on.

We accidentally had a natural experiment in outdoor spreading with near universal mask wearing and for once the news wasn't awful.

[Madrun Badrun]

Degrees matter not just for policy but more broadly, political narrative.  Saying both are bad is not correct when your pandemic response is mostly political theater.   In the current state of the US who gets the blame is more important than actual response policy.     

[Cindi Mayweather]

Worried about my dad, he's been running a fever since Saturday. The doctor gave him antibiotics, but they haven't done anything. He's trying to get a COVID test scheduled today, but it might be next week before he knows anything and meanwhile one of their neighbors tested positive.

feeling for you and rumbler and fam

[Stro]

https://twitter.com/BeccaLodahl/status/1277862893212495873

[Mandark]

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/oklahoma

It looks like in OK, they usually don't report any negative tests on Sunday and Monday (one week it's Saturday and Monday).

[Cindi Mayweather]

https://twitter.com/BeccaLodahl/status/1277862893212495873

Jesus Christ, trump. Fuck you.

[Raist]

In any case, in circumstances like these I don't think the point is "oh but that's not nearly as bad as this or that other thing", because that's just a "rules for thee not for me" argument. Anything that will contribute to community spreading is just real fucking bad.

I don't agree. Degree matters, especially differences in degree that look like this, and especially when people and policymakers are trying to sort out which restrictions should be maintained and which we can ease up on.

We accidentally had a natural experiment in outdoor spreading with near universal mask wearing and for once the news wasn't awful.

And my point is that this is a piss-poor study done by social "scientists" who were more interested in a political statement rather than actually doing this shit properly - if that can even be done in the first place. So taking this to make such a strong claim is just dumb.

Maybe they can start with the very basic proper thing to do, which is to check positivity rate in people who joined protests vs. those who didn't, in the exact same areas, over the same period of time. Which of course isn't something one can do by just crunching publicly released whole population numbers from "counties with big protests" vs "counties with not much protests"; that would require some proper understanding of the scientific method.