The sun beat down, the temperature rose and bodies pressed together. A succession of speakers kept the faithful in a state of ferment. “Ahmadinejad for family values,” they chanted. “Ahmadinejad, you are the nation’s choice.”
...
“Ahmadinejad is brave. Every night he catches a thief,” the crowd roared back in unison.
...
It was 90 minutes before Mr Ahmadinejad ended. “Oh Great and Compassionate God, sit the Iranian nation on the roof of the world.” As one, the crowd responded: “Thank you, thank you, our President.”
Why does Iran still matter? Aside from Bush elevating them to the status of national bogeyman, they're essentially irrelevant on the national scene.
Stoney, did you get banned again?
6.35pm:
As night fell on Tehran the heavens opened with a deliciously cooling
downpour after a very long hot day, writes Ian Black in his final blog posting of the day.
Amazingly, polling stations are still open and heaving, with voting extended for a fourth extra hour to accommodate what by all accounts is a massive voter turnout that could even break the 1997 record.
Friends in the Mousavi camp can hardly contain their excitement at what they think is the likelihood of imminent victory. But they say they are worried about a last-minute hitch: the meaning of a reported shortage of ballot papers in some places, for example, and ominous predictions that the regime may lash out if Ahmadinejad does lose.
A Revolutionary Guard warning about not tolerating a "velvet revolution" by the Iranian "greens" has been noted with some alarm. The blocking of SMS messages throughout the day was almost certainly designed to disrupt contact between Mousavi supporters.
"We are all very excited," said a North Tehran photographer, "but we fear that we may have to pay for our empowerment."
The American media is going to give the credit to Obama's speech if Amiajdjjdajdjajdjadid goes down but he was way behind in the polls long before Obama's speech.
some very nice pics here
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_presidential_election.html (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_presidential_election.html)
Iran rivals both declare victory
The two main candidates in Iran's presidential election have claimed victory, after extended voting as huge numbers of people turned out to vote.
Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi told a news conference that he had won by a substantial margin.
However, state media said incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won, and electoral officials said partial results put him ahead on 69%.
But Mr Mousavi has complained of some voting irregularities.
He said there had been a shortage of ballot papers and millions of people had been denied the right to vote.
His election monitors were not allowed enough access to polling stations, he added, saying he would deal seriously with any fraud.
The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says that, with the count barely having begun, this could be a case of the two candidates just sending a warning.
This is gonna be nasty.QuoteIran rivals both declare victory
The two main candidates in Iran's presidential election have claimed victory, after extended voting as huge numbers of people turned out to vote.
Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi told a news conference that he had won by a substantial margin.
However, state media said incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won, and electoral officials said partial results put him ahead on 69%.
But Mr Mousavi has complained of some voting irregularities.
He said there had been a shortage of ballot papers and millions of people had been denied the right to vote.
His election monitors were not allowed enough access to polling stations, he added, saying he would deal seriously with any fraud.
The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says that, with the count barely having begun, this could be a case of the two candidates just sending a warning.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8098305.stm
some very nice pics here
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_presidential_election.html (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_presidential_election.html)
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks live on television after casting his ballot in the Iranian presidential election in Tehran June 12, 2009. The post of Supreme Leader is Iran's highest ranking political and religious authority - higher than the office of the president - and is elected by Iran's 86-member Islamic "Assembly of Experts", not by popular vote.
QuoteIran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks live on television after casting his ballot in the Iranian presidential election in Tehran June 12, 2009. The post of Supreme Leader is Iran's highest ranking political and religious authority - higher than the office of the president - and is elected by Iran's 86-member Islamic "Assembly of Experts", not by popular vote.
What does the president do that's different from the supreme leader?
QuoteIran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks live on television after casting his ballot in the Iranian presidential election in Tehran June 12, 2009. The post of Supreme Leader is Iran's highest ranking political and religious authority - higher than the office of the president - and is elected by Iran's 86-member Islamic "Assembly of Experts", not by popular vote.
What does the president do that's different from the supreme leader?
FoC: uh you didn't answer my question
n Iran, first results give Ahmadinejad commanding lead
His challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is claiming irregularities. Police moved quickly to quell small protests.
By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
TEHRAN, IRAN - Electoral officials announced a strong lead for Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, even as his main challenger claimed irregularities and stated that he had won Friday's contest.
Results of 47.3 percent of the vote, announced at 2 a.m., gave Mr. Ahmadinejad 67 percent of the vote, compared with 30.34 percent for Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose "green wave" of supporters had sparked popular street demonstrations during the campaign.
Mr. Mousavi argued that he had won an outright victory. "In line with the information we have received, I am the winner of this election by a substantial margin," he stated late on Friday.
Mousavi asked Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, to intervene.
At least three pro-Mousavi websites were shut down on Friday – along with that of the candidate himself. The results came through uncommonly quickly overnight, far faster than all elections of previous years.
In a statement Friday night on Fars news agency, Ahmadinejad's campaign said that "a golden page in the glorious history of the Islamic revolution has been witnessed." It praised the Iranian people for showing that while "reaching toward justice and fighting oppression, they will not stand down, and they will go against any darkness and filth."
TEARS AND ANGER ON THE STREET
Mousavi's loyalists – who had expected a victory over the divisive incumbent – were not buying the results. Police placed concrete barriers and several rows of police cars to block access to the Ministry of Interior, where votes were being tabulated and announced.
Hundreds of Mousavi supporters, frustrated, angry, and some with tears in their eyes, gathered in the front of the campaign headquarters in a state of shock.
"If there is rigging, Iran will be like judgment day!" they chanted. "Mousavi: Congratulations on your presidency!"
On Friday night, the mostly young Iranians who had flooded the streets with such abandon and political brashness during Iran's electrifying three-week campaign, were being chased outside the campaign headquarters by small groups of police and other security elements wielding batons and kicking, pepper-spraying, and punching people.
One diminutive young woman walked away from the after-midnight melee clutching her belly, where she had been hit, and sobbing. One man had boot marks on his arm where he had been kicked; another showed graze marks from a baton.
"I think this is psychological warfare," said one Mousavi supporter. "They want to scare us and give us the idea that we are losing."
It may have been working, as more results began to come out that showed Ahmadinejad with a commanding lead. The tumultuous, mud-slinging campaign and ever-growing street protests had prompted many analysts to predict a first-round victory for Mousavi.
First-ever debates focused on accusations and countercharges of lying over even basic statistics like inflation and employment figures. Playing on the theme, one Mousavi supporter early Saturday morning was despondent.
He said: "If they can play around with statistics, they can play around with votes."
So the real question is was there real tampering or not? If so, how far will the reactions go?
So the real question is was there real tampering or not? If so, how far will the reactions go?
In a society with that sort of leadership structure I doubt they will be very forthcoming on opening up the results of the election to outside scrutiny. Seems very surprising/unlikely that Ahmadinejad would be able to garner such a large win with such a large voting turnout without something fishy going on.
I agree. I didnt specify enough with my comment though. I was thinking of the reactions of those inside Iran.
the bore will comfort the despondent young Iranian women
I can't find Iranian women attractive because they all remind me of my family :'(
People like to overestimate how many Iranians want reform. I remember the same thing happening last election.
Wow, massive blow to the Obama administration
People like to overestimate how many Iranians want reform. I remember the same thing happening last election.
There is always a horserace model the media follows for these stories no matter what the country also which doesn't help. Couple that with poor or non-existent independent polling. And not exactly the most open and free society and you have a recipe for this sort of thing.
The only bright side is that like in nearly all countries the first results are from rural smaller areas which tend to favor the "conservative" or "traditional" candidates. It takes longer to count the larger urban areas and cities which tend to be more "liberal" so those get reported last. So you often have a pattern where a conservative leads a liberal early and then the race closes. Still if those early vote totals are correct which is like half the vote so far it seems impossible for Mousavi to catch up unless he wins the last half in a commanding manner.
By early Saturday, Ahmadinejad had 65.2 percent and Mousavi had 31.8 percent with 77 percent of all votes counted, said Kamran Daneshjoo, a senior official with the Interior Ministry, which oversees the voting.
Based on figures released by the ministry, around 75 percent of the 46.2 million eligible voters went to the polls.
There was no sign of increased security, but the warnings had already been issued.
The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary Guard cautioned Wednesday it would crush any "revolution" against the Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement." The interior ministry said all rallies or political gatherings would be banned until after the formal announcement of results later Saturday.
Mousavi, however, was equally harsh — accusing the Islamic establishment was "manipulating the people's vote" to keep Ahmadinejad in power.
"I'll pursue this. I won't give up. There is no way back," he said.
Who did you vote for?
I do not see how these election results mean Obama's speech failed. ???
Update V: At about 7:30am Tehran time, the U.S.-based Iranian academic writes, "I have been exchanging emails, phone calls, and been in touch with
young, old, men, women, ...and been in touch with people from inside
each campaign (AN and Mousavi). These numbers have surprised even the
supporters of AN. What is more, the journalists are saying in the
Interior Ministry there has been no explanations, no interviews, just
reading the numbers to journalists. It is mind-boggling at this point.
It is not over by any means; unless reformers want to lay down and
play dead."
He later adds, "The loser either way is Khamenie (if there is a widespread belief that this was rigged). However, I cannot believe given the scope of participation that it would be such a blow out (even as the percentage of booths has nothing to do with the percentage of the vote give because the size of these booths are not the same). However, no one I know can believe these numbers. Something does not add up."
Another Washington-based Iran watcher said at about 11pm EST that Iranian-state-officials are claiming vote counts in the Iranian city of Isfahan show Ahmadinejad winning 3-1. Which would seem a bit absurd - or else a total contrary result from what pre-election reporting indicated. He said there seems to be a waiting for two things: what Mousavi says, and what Rafsanjani says.
Ahmadinejad apparently won the 2005 election 62-36, so this result doesn't seem all that far-fetched unless 2005 was also fixed (which seems prima facie unlikely to me since his opponent was Rafsanjani who is a powerful insider, but it's not like I know anything).
Ahmadinejad apparently won the 2005 election 62-36, so this result doesn't seem all that far-fetched unless 2005 was also fixed (which seems prima facie unlikely to me since his opponent was Rafsanjani who is a powerful insider, but it's not like I know anything).The economy is a mess in Iran, Ahmadinejad has lost a lot of popularity. There is NO way he would have a bigger margin after that. It is obviously fixed. But like I said earlier, that doesn't surprise me in the least. It's Iran still.
In a way, I think it's better for the US that Ahmadinejad wins. He's a known quantity and (if you believe people from the left) a lightening rod with little political power in actuality. Mousavi seems like a real unknown and unlikely to make any real drastic changes (for the positive) if he were elected.
Officials: Ahmadinejad on way to landslide win
Violence flares after Iran authorities are accused of 'manipulating' results
NBC News and news services
updated 4 minutes ago
TEHRAN, Iran - Anti-riot police guarded the offices overseeing Iran's disputed elections Saturday with the count pointing to a landslide victory by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his opponent denouncing the results as "treason" and threatening a challenge.
Many people opened shops and carried out errands, but the backdrop was far from normal: black-clad police gathering around key government buildings and mobile phone text messaging blocked in an apparent attempt to stifle one of the main communication tools by the pro-reform movement of Mir Hossein Mousavi.
NBC News reported "violent clashes" between rock-throwing protesters and riot police in the center of Tehran.
Earlier, a statement from Mousavi posted on his Web site urged his supporters to resist a "governance of lie and dictatorship."
Outside the Interior Ministry, which directed Friday's voting, security forces set up a cordon. The results had flowed quickly after polls closed showing the hard-line president with a comfortable lead — defying expectations of a nail-biter showdown following a month of fierce campaigning and bringing immediate charges of vote rigging by Mousavi.
But an expected announcement on the full outcome was temporarily put on hold. A reason for the delay was not made public, but it suggested intervention by Iran's Islamic authorities seeking to put the brakes on a potentially volatile showdown.
'I won't surrender'
Ahmadinejad had the apparent backing of the ruling theocracy, which holds near-total power and would have the ability to put the election results into a temporary limbo.
Mousavi, who became the hero of a powerful youth-driven movement, had not made a public address or issued messages since declaring himself the true victor moments after polls closed and accusing authorities of "manipulating" the vote.
"I'm warning that I won't surrender to this manipulation," said the Mousavi statement on the Web on Saturday. "The outcome of what we've seen from the performance of officials ... is nothing but shaking the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran sacred system and governance of lie and dictatorship."
He warned "people won't respect those who take power through fraud" and called the decision to announce Ahmadinejad winner of the election was a "treason to the votes of the people."
The headline on one of Mousavi's Web sites: "I wont give in to this dangerous manipulation." Mousavi and key aides could not be reached by phone.
Information clampdown?
It was even unclear how many Iranians were even aware of Mousavi's claims of fraud. Communications disruptions began in the later hours of voting Friday — suggesting an information clampdown. State television and radio only broadcast the Interior Ministry's vote count and not Mousavi's midnight press conference.
Nationwide, the text messaging system remained down Saturday and several pro-Mousavi Web sites were blocked or difficult to access. Text messaging is frequently used by many Iranians — especially young Mousavi supporters — to spread election news.
By Saturday morning, Iran's Interior Ministry said Ahmadinejad had 63.3 percent of the vote and Mousavi had 34.7 percent with about 85 percent of all votes counted. Based on ministry figures, around 75 percent of the country's 46.2 million eligible voters went to the polls, many of which were jammed packed Friday with people waiting several hours to cast their ballots.
At a press conference, Mousavi declared himself "definitely the winner" based on "all indications from all over Iran." He accused the government of "manipulating the people's vote" to keep Ahmadinejad in power and suggested the reformist camp would stand up to challenge the results.
"It is our duty to defend people's votes. There is no turning back," Mousavi said, alleging widespread irregularities.
Mousavi's backers were stunned at Interior Ministry's results after widespread predictions of a close race — or even a slight edge to Mousavi.
"Many Iranians went to the people because they wanted to bring change. Almost everybody I know voted for Mousavi but Ahmadinejad is being declared the winner. The government announcement is nothing but widespread fraud. It is very, very disappointing. I'll never ever again vote in Iran," said Mousavi supporter Nasser Amiri, a hospital clerk in Tehran.
Bringing any showdown into the streets would certainly face a swift backlash from security forces. The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary Guard cautioned Wednesday it would crush any "revolution" against the Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement" — the signature color of his campaign and the new banner for reformists seeking wider liberties at home and a gentler face for Iran abroad.
The Revolutionary Guard is the military wing directly under control of the ruling clerics and has vast influence in every corner of the country through a network of volunteer militias.
In Tehran, several Ahmadinejad supporters cruised the streets waving Iranian flags out of their car windows and shouting "Mousavi is dead!"
Mousavi appealed directly to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to intervene and stop what he said were violations of the law. Khamenei holds ultimate political authority in Iran. "I hope the leader's foresight will bring this to a good end," Mousavi said.
Mousavi said some polling stations were closed early with people still waiting to vote, that voters were prevented from casting ballots and that his observers were expelled from some counting sites.
Iran does not allow international election monitors. During the 2005 election, when Ahmadinejad won the presidency, there were some allegations of vote rigging from losers, but the claims were never investigated.
'Robust debate'
The outcome will not sharply alter Iran's main policies or sway major decisions, such as possible talks with Washington or nuclear policies. Those crucial issues rest with the ruling clerics headed by the unelected Khamenei.
But the election focused on what the office can influence: boosting Iran's sinking economy, pressing for greater media and political freedoms, and being Iran's main envoy to the world.
Before the vote count, President Barack Obama said the "robust debate" during the campaign suggests a possibility of change in Iran, which is under intense international pressure over its nuclear program. There has been no comment from Washington since the results indicated re-election for Ahmadinejad.
The race will go to a runoff on June 19 if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote. Two other candidates — conservative former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei and moderate former parliament speaker Mahdi Karroubi — only got small fractions of the votes, according to the ministry.
Iran govt declared Ahmadinejad winner with 62 pct
20 minutes ago
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran's government says incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the winner of the election with a landslide 62.63 percent of the vote. Top opposition contender Mir Hossein Mousavi takes only 33.75 percent of vote in a result disputed by his supporters.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Anti-riot police guarded the offices overseeing Iran's disputed elections Saturday with the count pointing to a landslide victory by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad while his opponent denounced the results as "treason" and threatened a challenge.
The standoff left Tehran in tense anticipation. Many people opened shops and carried out errands, but the backdrop was far from normal: black-clad police gathering around key government buildings and mobile phone text messaging blocked in an apparent attempt to stifle one of the main communication tools of the pro-reform movement of Mir Hossein Mousavi.
A statement from Mousavi posted on his Web site urged his supporters to resist a "governance of lie and dictatorship."
Outside the Interior Ministry, which directed Friday's voting, security forces set up a cordon. The results had flowed quickly after polls closed showing the hard-line president with a comfortable lead — defying expectations of a nail-biter showdown following a month of fierce campaigning and bringing immediate charges of vote rigging by Mousavi.
But an expected announcement on the full outcome was temporarily put on hold. A reason for the delay was not made public, but it suggested intervention by Iran's Islamic authorities seeking to put the brakes on a potentially volatile showdown.
Ahmadinejad had the apparent backing of the ruling theocracy, which holds near-total power and would have the ability to put the election results on the slow track.
There were no immediate reports of serious clashes or mass protests, and the next step by Mousavi's backers were unclear. Mousavi, who became the hero of a powerful youth-driven movement, had not made a public address or issued messages since declaring himself the true victor moments after polls closed and accusing authorities of "manipulating" the vote.
Along Tehran's Vali Asr St. — where Mousavi supporters joined in a massive campaign rally earlier this week — an Associated Press photographer saw police clubbing and chasing people. The reasons for the action was unclear. There were no signs of a demonstration or green-colored banners and clothing — the color of Mousavi's "green" campaign following.
"I'm warning that I won't surrender to this manipulation," said the Mousavi statement Saturday. "The outcome of what we've seen from the performance of officials ... is nothing but shaking the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran sacred system and governance of lie and dictatorship."
He warned "people won't respect those who take power through fraud" and called the decision to announce Ahmadinejad winner of the election was a "treason to the votes of the people."
The headline on one of Mousavi's Web sites: "I wont give in to this dangerous manipulation." Mousavi and key aides could not be reached by phone.
It was even unclear how many Iranians were even aware of Mousavi's claims of fraud. Communications disruptions began in the later hours of voting Friday — suggesting an information clampdown. State television and radio only broadcast the Interior Ministry's vote count and not Mousavi's midnight press conference.
Nationwide, the text messaging system remained down Saturday and several pro-Mousavi Web sites were blocked or difficult to access. Text messaging is frequently used by many Iranians — especially young Mousavi supporters — to spread election news.
At Tehran University — the site of the last major anti-regime unrest in Tehran in 1999 — the academic year was winding down and there was no sign of pro-Mousavi crowds. But university exams, scheduled to begin Saturday, were postponed until next month around the country.
By Saturday afternoon, Iran's Interior Ministry said Ahmadinejad had about 63 percent of the vote and Mousavi had just under 35 percent with about 91 percent of all votes counted. The ministry also updated its voter turnout figures. Minister Sadeq Mahsouli said 85 percent of Iran's 46.2 million eligible voters went to the polls — setting a new record. On Friday, many polling stations were jammed packed with people waiting several hours to cast their ballots.
The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported that Ahmadinejad plans a public address on Sunday in Tehran.
At a press conference, Mousavi declared himself "definitely the winner" based on "all indications from all over Iran." He accused the government of "manipulating the people's vote" to keep Ahmadinejad in power and suggested the reformist camp would stand up to challenge the results.
"It is our duty to defend people's votes. There is no turning back," Mousavi said, alleging widespread irregularities.
Mousavi's backers were stunned at Interior Ministry's results after widespread predictions of a close race — or even a slight edge to Mousavi.
"Many Iranians went to the people because they wanted to bring change. Almost everybody I know voted for Mousavi but Ahmadinejad is being declared the winner. The government announcement is nothing but widespread fraud. It is very, very disappointing. I'll never ever again vote in Iran," said Mousavi supporter Nasser Amiri, a hospital clerk in Tehran.
Bringing any showdown into the streets would certainly face a swift backlash from security forces. The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary Guard cautioned Wednesday it would crush any "revolution" against the Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement," which seeks wider liberties at home and a gentler face for Iran abroad.
The Revolutionary Guard is the military wing directly under control of the ruling clerics and has vast influence in every corner of the country through a network of volunteer militias.
In Tehran, several Ahmadinejad supporters cruised the streets waving Iranian flags out of car windows and shouting "Mousavi is dead!"
Mousavi appealed directly to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to intervene and stop what he said were violations of the law. Khamenei holds ultimate political authority in Iran. "I hope the leader's foresight will bring this to a good end," Mousavi said.
Iran does not allow international election monitors. During the 2005 election, when Ahmadinejad won the presidency, there were some allegations of vote rigging from losers, but the claims were never investigated.
The outcome will not sharply alter Iran's main policies or sway major decisions, such as possible talks with Washington or nuclear policies. Those crucial issues rest with the ruling clerics headed by the unelected Khamenei.
But the election focused on what the office can influence: boosting Iran's sinking economy, pressing for greater media and political freedoms, and being Iran's main envoy to the world.
Before the vote count, President Barack Obama said the "robust debate" during the campaign suggests a possibility of change in Iran, which is under intense international pressure over its nuclear program. There has been no comment from Washington since the results indicated re-election for Ahmadinejad.
The race will go to a runoff on June 19 if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote. Two other candidates — conservative former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei and moderate former parliament speaker Mahdi Karroubi — only got small fractions of the votes, according to the ministry.
The more I think about it, the more it doesn't really make sense to me that they'd fix the elections. We all know that in a sense the whole Iranian political system is itself fixed, but that's implemented as a wrapper around the elections, the pre-/post- hooks being the vetting of candidates by the Guardian Council and the presidents' lack of ultimate power. With those in place, I don't see why they'd need to fix the election itself, especially since Mousavi doesn't seem to be outside the range of presidents they've let in in the past, and rigging things seems to run more risk of instability than giving people a moderate establishment outlet for their discontent would. What am I missing?Well the Supreme Leader made it clear he wanted Ameejddidiidijdjajdad to be re-elected there could be that motivation.
I'm not going to just automatically believe the votes were tampered with because some large groups of opposition appeared for rallies.That's not the on;y thng that happened. Riot police started destroying their cars, the govt. shut off all their websites and closed down their cellphone accounts of the campaign so they can't contact anyone. That is fishy stuff.
Wishful thinking from Tehran
Since the revolution, academics and pundits have predicted the collapse of the Iranian regime. This week, they did no better
I have been in Iran for exactly one week covering the 2009 Iranian election carnival. Since I arrived, few here doubted that the incumbent firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad would win. My airport cab driver reminded me that the president had visited every province twice in the last four years – "Iran isn't Tehran," he said. Even when I asked Mousavi supporters if their man could really carry more than capital, their responses were filled with an Obamasque provisional optimism – "Yes we can", "I hope so", "If you vote." So the question occupying the international media, "How did Mousavi lose?" seems to be less a problem of the Iranian election commission and more a matter of bad perception rooted in the stubborn refusal to understand the role of religion in Iran.
Of course, the rather real possibility of voter fraud exists and one must wait in the coming weeks to see how these allegations unfold. But one should recall that in three decades of presidential elections, the accusations of rigging have rarely been levied against the vote count. Elections here are typically controlled by banning candidates from the start or closing opposition newspapers in advance.
In this election moreover, there were two separate governmental election monitors in addition to observers from each camp to prevent mass voter fraud. The sentimental implausibility of Ahmedinejad's victory that Mousavi's supporters set forth as the evidence of state corruption must be met by the equal implausibility that such widespread corruption could take place under clear daylight. So, until hard evidence emerges that can substantiate the claims of the opposition camp we need to look to other reasons to explain why so many are stunned by the day's events.
As far as international media coverage is concerned, it seems that wishful thinking got the better of credible reporting. It is true that Mousavi supporters jammed Tehran traffic for hours every night over the last week, though it was rarely mentioned that they did so only in the northern well-to-do neighborhoods of the capital. Women did relax their head covers and young men did dance in the street.
On Monday night at least 100,000 of the former prime minister's supporters set up a human chain across Tehran. But, hours before I had attended a mass rally for the incumbent president that got little to no coverage in the western press because, on account of the crowds, he never made it inside the hall to give his speech. Minimal estimates from that gathering have been placed at 600,000 (enthusiasts say a million). From the roof I watched as the veiled women and bearded men of all ages poured like lava.
But the failure to properly gauge Iran's affairs is hardly a new phenomenon. When the 1979 revolution shattered the military dictatorship of America's strongest ally in the region few experts outside of the country suspected that the Islamic current would emerge as the leading party.
But in Iran, even the secular intellectual Jalal Al-e Ahmad, author of the infamous Occidentosis predicted the collapse of the regime at the hands of Islamic movement well over a decade before the fateful events of 1979. The maverick French philosopher, Michel Foucault, also made the right bet as he reported the events from the street – an insight that his many admirers still shy from. Since the revolution, academics, intellectuals and pundits have predicted the imminent collapse of the regime. As of today, they have done no better.
Such anomalies can only be explained by a longue duree. Iran is a deeply religious society. Of the Shah's mistakes nepotism, autocracy, and repression were fought by communists and liberals for decades with no success, but it was his attack on the religious establishment that led to his almost overnight demise.
Since then common Iranians have applied their ideals through the ballot box. In 1997 as the ashes of the Iran-Iraq war settled and the country saw a decade relative stability, voters came out in mass to support the former president-cleric Khatami against his rival, Natiq Nouri, a senior member of the establishment. Western reporters saw this in terms of a grand generational divide: young freedom loving liberals against elder conservative clerics. But it was really a vote for the ideal of honesty and piety against allegations of entrenched corruption. Many of those same Khatami supporters voted for Ahmedinejad yesterday, despite the fact that Khatami's face was on every one of Mousavi's campaign posters.
For over a week the same social impulses of anti-corruption, populism, and religious piety that led to the revolution have been on the streets available to anyone who wanted to report on them. Ahmedinejad, for most in the country, embodies those ideals. Since he came into office he has refused to wear a suit, refused to move out of the home he inherited from his father, and has refused to tone down the rhetoric he uses against those he accuses of betraying the nation. When he openly accused his towering rival, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanji, a lion of the revolution himself, of parasitical corruption and compared his betrayal to the alleged deception against the Prophet Muhammad that led to the Sunni-Shia split 1,400 years ago, he unleashed a popular impulse that has held the imagination of the masses here for generations. That Rafsanji defended himself through Mousavi's newspaper meant the end for the reformists.
In the last week Ahmedinejad turned the election into a referendum on the very project of Iran's Islamic revolution. Their street chants yelled "Death to all those against the Supreme Leader" followed by traditional Shia rituals and elegies. It was no match for the high-spirited fun-loving youth of northern Tehran who sang "Ahmedi-bye-bye, Ahmedi-bye-bye" or "ye hafte-do hafte, Mahmud hamum na-rafte" (One week, two weeks, Mahmoud hasn't taken a shower).
Perhaps from the start Mousavi was destined to fail as he hoped to combine the articulate energies of the liberal upper class with the business interests of the bazaar merchants. The Facebook campaigns and text-messaging were perfectly irrelevant for the rural and working classes who struggle to make a day's ends meet, much less have the time to review the week's blogs in an internet cafe. Although Mousavi tried to appeal to such classes by addressing the problems of inflation and poverty, they voted otherwise.
In the future, observers would do us a favour by taking a deeper look into Iranian society, giving us a more accurate picture of the very organic religious structures of the country, and dispensing with the narrative of liberal inevitability. It is the religious aspects of enigmatic Persia that helped put an 80-year-old exiled ascetic at the head of state 30 years ago, then the charismatic cleric Khatami in office 12 years ago, the honest son of a blacksmith – Ahmedinejad – four years ago, and the same yesterday.
• Abbas Barzegar is a PhD candidate in religious studies at Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
American officials are on the media describing this as coup like and not a real democratic election. Things are getting a bit crazy. Sounds like America's official stance won't be to recognize the election results as legitimate.
My airport cab driver reminded me that the president had visited every province twice in the last four years – "Iran isn't Tehran," he said.
I'm not going to just automatically believe the votes were tampered with because some large groups of opposition appeared for rallies.
To give the other side.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/13/iranian-election
Well the Iranian Electoral Commission is saying the entire election was a fraud and a set-up and says a re-vote needs to be taken place.
This is gonna be nasty.
Juan Cole (http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html) argues that the election was probably stolen.That's ultimately the problem. That in a "vote" like this in society like that, its very hard to trust results because the governing powers cloak so much in mystery.
Cole carries a lot of weight with me but I'm not totally convinced. I'd like to see the results broken down in detail along with the last couple elections to see if there are any wild disparities.
Of course Iran probably doesn't release anything like that (results by city are being reported but it seems really piecemeal) and I've just been spoiled by Nate Silver's spreadsheet porn.
yeah, is this even directly from the Electoral Commission or what?Quote from: CheebsWell the Iranian Electoral Commission is saying the entire election was a fraud and a set-up and says a re-vote needs to be taken place.Where you reading that?
There can be no question that the June 12, 2009 Iranian presidential election was stolen. Dissident employees of the Interior Ministry, which is under the control of President Ahmadinejad and is responsible for the mechanics of the polling and counting of votes, have reportedly issued an open letter saying as much. Government polls (one conducted by the Revolutionary Guards, the other by the state broadcasting company) that were leaked to the campaigns allegedly showed ten- to twenty-point leads for Mousavi a week before the election; earlier polls had them neck and neck, with Mousavi leading by one per cent, and Karroubi just behind.http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/06/laura-secor-irans-stolen-election.html
Moreover, in a protest against election results Iran's Hashemi Rafsanjani resigned from his posts as the chairman of the Assembly of Experts and as head of the Expediency Discernment Council, the two most influential institutions in the country.
Iran expert Gary Sick has a new post up taking stock of what's happened over the last 48 hours and what decisions confront the key players in the drama. I won't try to summarize it. But in his reconstruction of events he does say (what I'd heard earlier but not in a way that seemed reliable) that the Mousavi campaign was apparently notified by election officials that they had won only to see Interior Ministry officials announce an Ahmadinejad victory just a short time later.
If the current figures are to be believed, urban Iranians who voted for the reformist ex-president Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and 2001 have defected to Ahmadinejad in droves.
The more I think about it, the more it doesn't really make sense to me that they'd fix the elections. We all know that in a sense the whole Iranian political system is itself fixed, but that's implemented as a wrapper around the elections, the pre-/post- hooks being the vetting of candidates by the Guardian Council and the presidents' lack of ultimate power. With those in place, I don't see why they'd need to fix the election itself, especially since Mousavi doesn't seem to be outside the range of presidents they've let in in the past, and rigging things seems to run more risk of instability than giving people a moderate establishment outlet for their discontent would. What am I missing?
Did someone say Ron Paul? :hyper
In about-face, Khamenei backs vote fraud probe
After initially welcoming results, Iran’s supreme leader orders investigation
TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's state television said Monday that the supreme leader ordered an investigation into claims of fraud in last week's presidential election.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the powerful Guardian Council to examine the allegations by pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has claimed widespread vote rigging in Friday's election. The government declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner in a landslide victory.
It was a stunning turnaround for Iran's most powerful figure, who previously welcomed the results.
The outcome of the election has disconcerted Western powers trying to induce the world's fifth-biggest oil exporter to curb its nuclear program. President Barack Obama had urged Iran's leadership "to unclench its fist" for a new start in ties.
Mousavi wrote an appeal Sunday to the Guardian Council, a powerful 12-member body that is a pillar of Iran's theocracy. Mousavi also met Sunday with Khamenei.
Vice President Joe Biden said Sunday that Obama's effort to engage Tehran after a nearly three-decade estrangement would continue, regardless of the election's result. Obama, shifting course from his predecessor, has said he wants to talk to the theocratic regime in Tehran, with the central goal of stopping it from producing a nuclear weapon. He has set a year-end deadline for a positive response to his overture.
Biden told NBC's "Meet the Press" that the administration was still examining whether Friday's vote in Iran accurately reflected a response to Obama's desire for engagement.
"That's the question," Biden said. "Is this the result of the Iranian people's wishes? The hope is that the Iranian people, all their votes have been counted, they've been counted fairly. But look, we just don't know enough."
He said the United States had no choice right now but to accept the outcome as announced, but, Biden said, "I have doubts" about its fairness.
Mousavi's backers have waged three days of street protests in Tehran.
Protest rally postponed in Tehran
The defeated candidate's supporters called off a planned protest rally in Tehran on Monday after the Interior Ministry declared it would be illegal and treated as sedition.
A Mousavi Web site said the gathering had been delayed after the Interior Ministry refused to authorize it.
The European Union urged Iran not to use violence against those protesting against the disputed election and urged the authorities to look into complaints of irregularities.
"I have thorough respect for all the Iranian citizens who have shown their discontent and have demonstrated peacefully," EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner told reporters in Luxembourg. "I do hope that the security forces will refrain from showing violence."
The Guardian Council, whose chairman, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, endorsed Ahmadinejad before the vote, said it would rule within 10 days on two official complaints it had received from Mousavi and another losing candidate, Mohsen Rezaie.
"Mousavi and Rezaie appealed yesterday. After the official announcement (of the appeal) the Guardian Council has seven to 10 days to see if it was a healthy election or not," ISNA news agency quoted council spokesman Abbasali Kadkhodai as saying.
Guardian council's role
The council vets election candidates and must formally approve results for the outcome to stand. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier told Iranians to support Ahmadinejad.
On Sunday, Mousavi's supporters handed out leaflets calling for a rally in downtown Tehran on Monday afternoon. The protests over the last two days are the sharpest show of discontent against the Islamic Republic's leadership for years.
"The Interior Ministry issued a statement and said no permission had been issued for a rally ... The holding of such a gathering would be illegal," state radio said.
"Some seditious elements had planned to hold a rally and by fabrication said they had permission from the Interior Ministry. Any disrupter of public security would be dealt with according to the law," it said.
Mousavi urged Iranians on Sunday to keep up nationwide protests "in a peaceful and legal way."
Last week a senior Revolutionary Guard official vowed to foil what he called an attempt by Mousavi and his supporters in the streets to stage a "velvet revolution" — the name given to Czechoslovakia's non-violent 1989 revolution against communism.
Protests, clashes
Pro-Mousavi demonstrators threw stones at police at Tehran University on Sunday and clashed with Ahmadinejad supporters on a main avenue that was littered with broken glass and fires.
In the north of the capital, a stronghold of Mousavi backers, riot police patrolled after midnight. Garbage burned in the street, some cars had their windows broken, and police blocked access to roads.
After dusk, some Mousavi supporters took to rooftops across Tehran calling out "Allahu Akbar" (God is greatest), an echo of tactics by protesters in the 1979 Islamic revolution.
U.S. leaders have shown caution in their comments on the election so far, in the hope of keeping alive Obama's strategy of engagement with Iran, with tougher talk coming from Europe.
Germany, one of Iran's biggest trading partners and a negotiator in the West's nuclear talks with Tehran, said it had summoned the Iranian ambassador on Sunday.
"We are looking toward Tehran with great concern at the moment. There are a lot of reports about electoral fraud," Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told German ZDF TV.
A lot of people have been claiming that the American media hasn't been covering the elections. I just want to point out that Drudge.com has been showcasing the election extensively.
awesome pic
http://6.media.tumblr.com/WS7ReC9ySorh66exlus4RBEPo1_500.jpg
Hmm Persian women do seem on average quite good looking.
I dunno
My persian-american female friends are normally hawt.
Malek is correct. His name is arabic so he has some actual credibility on this.
Fraud or not, it's nice to see the protesters showing a bit of spine. I hope the elites feel enough pressure that they decide to accommodate the reform movement rather than crack down on it.what do you mean by accommodate?
Well they don't know that.Malek is correct. His name is arabic so he has some actual credibility on this.
But I'm not Arabic and neither are Iranians!
awesome pic
http://6.media.tumblr.com/WS7ReC9ySorh66exlus4RBEPo1_500.jpg
:(
awesome pic
(http://6.media.tumblr.com/WS7ReC9ySorh66exlus4RBEPo1_500.jpg)
am nintenho: To treat the reformist movement as a group that needs to be co-opted or appeased, rather than something that can be stamped out.The problem is that nobody can actually prove that there was ANY election fraud. Who knows how accurate the "official" leaked numbers of Mousavi are? In the future, people will question if the election was valid but Ahmadinejad will still be the president for another term.
How much attention do elections in Japan, India, Argentina, or any other country, get from the U.S. media? How many Americans and American journalists even know who is in political office in other countries besides England, France, and Germany? Who can name the political leaders of Switzerland, Holland, Brazil, Japan, or even China?
Yet, many know of Iran’s President Ahmadinejad. The reason is obvious. He is daily demonized in the U.S. media.
The U.S. media’s demonization of Ahmadinejad itself demonstrates American ignorance. The President of Iran is not the ruler. He is not the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. He cannot set policies outside the boundaries set by Iran’s rulers, the ayatollahs who are not willing for the Iranian Revolution to be overturned by American money in some color-coded “revolution.”
Iranians have a bitter experience with the United States government. Their first democratic election, after emerging from occupied and colonized status in the 1950s, was overturned by the U.S. government. The U.S. government installed in place of the elected candidate a dictator who tortured and murdered dissidents who thought Iran should be an independent country and not ruled by an American puppet.
The U.S. “superpower” has never forgiven the Iranian Islamic ayatollahs for the Iranian Revolution in the late 1970s, which overthrew the U.S. puppet government and held hostage U.S. embassy personnel, regarded as “a den of spies,” while Iranian students pieced together shredded embassy documents that proved America’s complicity in the destruction of Iranian democracy.
The government-controlled U.S. corporate media, a Ministry of Propaganda, has responded to the re-election of Ahmadinejad with non-stop reports of violent Iranians protests to a stolen election. A stolen election is presented as a fact, even thought there is no evidence for it whatsoever. The U.S. media’s response to the documented stolen elections during the George W. Bush/Karl Rove era was to ignore the evidence of real stolen elections.
Leaders of the puppet states of Great Britain and Germany have fallen in line with the American psychological warfare operation. The discredited British Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, expressed his “serioU.S. doubt” about Ahmadinejad’s victory to a meeting of European Union ministers in Luxembourg. Miliband, of course, has no source of independent information. He is simply following Washington’s instructions and relying on unsupported claims by the defeated candidate preferred by the U.S. Government.
Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, had her arm twisted, too. She called in the Iranian ambassador to demand “more transparency” on the elections.
Even the American left-wing has endorsed the U.S. government’s propaganda. Writing in The Nation, Robert Dreyfus’s presents the hysterical views of one Iranian dissident as if they are the definitive truth about “the illegitimate election,” terming it “a coup d’etat.”
What is the source of the information for the U.S. media and the American puppet states?
Nothing but the assertions of the defeated candidate, the one America prefers.
However, there is hard evidence to the contrary. An independent, objective poll was conducted in Iran by American pollsters prior to the election. The pollsters, Ken Ballen of the nonprofit Center for Public Opinion and Patrick Doherty of the nonprofit New America Foundation, describe their poll results in the June 15 Washington Post. The polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and was conducted in Farsi “by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award.”*
The poll results, the only real information we have at this time, indicate that the election results reflect the will of the Iranian voters. Among the extremely interesting information revealed by the poll is the following:
“Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.
“While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Moussavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
“The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our pre-election survey. During the campaign, for instance, Moussavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over MoU.S.avi.
“Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.
“The only demographic groups in which our survey found Moussavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.”
There have been numerous news reports that the U.S. government has implemented a program to destabilize Iran. There have been reports that the U.S. government has financed bombings and assassinations within Iran. The U.S. media treats these reports in a braggadocio manner as illustrations of the American Superpower’s ability to bring dissenting countries to heel, while some foreign media see these reports as evidence of the U.S. government’s inherent immorality.
Pakistan’s former military chief, General Mirza Aslam Beig, said on Pashto Radio on Monday, June 15, that undisputed intelligence proves the U.S. interfered in the Iranian election. “The documents prove that the CIA spent 400 million dollars inside Iran to prop up a colorful but hollow revolution following the election.”
The success of the U.S. government in financing color revolutions in former Soviet Georgia and Ukraine and in other parts of the former Soviet empire have been widely reported and discussed, with the U.S. media treating it as an indication of U.S. omnipotence and natural right and some foreign media as a sign of U.S. interference in the internal affairs of other countries. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that Mir Hossein Moussavi is a bought and paid for operative of the U.S. government.
We know for a fact that the U.S. government has psychological warfare operations that target both Americans and foreigners through the U.S. and foreign media. Many articles have been published on this subject.
Think about the Iranian election from a common sense standpoint. Neither myself nor the vast majority of readers are Iranian experts. But from a common sense standpoint, if your country was under constant threat of attack, even nuclear attack, from two countries with much more powerful military establishments, as is Iran from the U.S. and Israel, would you desert your country’s best defender and elect the preferred candidate of the U.S. and Israel?
Do you believe that the Iranian people would have voted to become an American puppet state?
Iran is an ancient and sophisticated society. Much of the intellectual class is secularized. A significant, but small, percentage of the youth has fallen in thrall to Western devotion to personal pleasure, and to self-absorption. These people are easily organized with American money to give their government and Islamic constraints on personal behavior the bird.
The U.S. government is taking advantage of these westernized Iranians to create a basis for discrediting the Iranian election and the Iranian government.
On June 14, the McClatchy Washington Bureau, which sometimes attempts to report the real news, acquiesced to Washington’s psychological warfare and declared: “Iran election result makes Obama’s outreach efforts harder.” What we see here is the raising of the ugly head of the excuse for “diplomatic failure,” leaving only a military solution.
As a person who has seen it all from inside the U.S. government, I believe that the purpose of the U.S. government’s manipulation of the American and puppet government media is to discredit the Iranian government by portraying the Iranian government as an oppressor of the Iranian people and a frustrater of the Iranian people’s will. This is how the U.S. government is setting up Iran for military attack.
With the help of Moussavi, the U.S. government is creating another “oppressed people,” like Iraqis under Saddam Hussein, who require American lives and money to liberate. Has Moussavi, the American candidate in the Iranian election who was roundly trounced, been chosen by Washington to become the American puppet ruler of Iran?
The great macho superpower is eager to restore its hegemony over the Iranian people, thus settling the score with the ayatollahs who overthrew American rule of Iran in 1978.
That is the script. You are watching it every minute on U.S. television.
There is no end of “experts” to support the script. For one example among hundreds, we have Gary Sick, who formerly served on the National Security Council and currently teaches at Columbia University:
"If they'd been a little more modest and said Ahmadinejad had won by 51 percent," Sick said, Iranians might have been dubious but more accepting. But the government's assertion that Ahmadinejad won with 62.6 percent of the vote, "is not credible."
"I think,” continued Sick, “it does mark a real transition point in the Iranian Revolution, from a position of claiming to have its legitimacy based on the support of the population, to a position that has increasingly relied on repression. The voice of the people is ignored."
The only hard information available is the poll referenced above. The poll found that Ahmadinejad was the favored candidate by a margin of two to one.
But as in everything else having to do with American hegemony over other peoples, facts and truth play no part. Lies and propaganda rule.
Consumed by its passion for hegemony, America is driven prevail over others, morality and justice be damned. This world-threatening script will play until America bankrupts itself and has so alienated the rest of the world that it is isolated and universally despised.
A significant, but small, percentage of the youth has fallen in thrall to Western devotion to personal pleasure, and to self-absorption. These people are easily organized with American money to give their government and Islamic constraints on personal behavior the bird.
Why is the world so interested in Iran all of a sudden? ???
I take it your not a fan of the anti-imperialist left?spoiler (click to show/hide):smug[close]
4) They also control the "puppet state" of Germany (so leaving them out of the Coalition of the Willing was a real clever double-reverse or something).
WASHINGTON (AP) -- In the strongest message yet from the U.S. government, the House voted 405-1 Friday to condemn Tehran's crackdown on demonstrators and the government's interference with Internet and cell phone communications.
Rep. Ron Paul, a Texas libertarian, cast the sole opposing vote.http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_US_IRAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2009-06-19-11-23-59
What's Paul's justification for that?!Many libertarians have a need to maintain ideological purity. Since he's clearly against foreign interventionism, he can't support a simple condemnation, believing it's a form of intervention.
:'(
That's awful. Do you know where she was shot?