Author Topic: It's the official Iranian election thread!  (Read 9155 times)

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Mandark

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It's the official Iranian election thread!
« on: June 11, 2009, 04:57:58 AM »
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6476290.ece

Quote
The sun beat down, the temperature rose and bodies pressed together. A succession of speakers kept the faithful in a state of ferment. “Ahmadinejad for family values,” they chanted. “Ahmadinejad, you are the nation’s choice.”

...

“Ahmadinejad is brave. Every night he catches a thief,” the crowd roared back in unison.

...

It was 90 minutes before Mr Ahmadinejad ended. “Oh Great and Compassionate God, sit the Iranian nation on the roof of the world.” As one, the crowd responded: “Thank you, thank you, our President.”

Highlighted for the insane coordinated cheering.


I was gonna write something about the parallels between Ahmadinejad and Bush, but Laura Secor beat me to it.  Maziar Bahari did too.  The first article especially is a good read.

Phoenix Dark

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2009, 05:11:01 AM »
So if Ahmadinejad wins...Obama's speech was a massive failure of appeasing proportions correct
010

Flannel Boy

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2009, 05:13:26 AM »
The TNR article is very informative and very well written.

It's hilarious that the most liberal candidate in the election is a cleric.

T-Short

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brawndolicious

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2009, 06:35:55 AM »
I fucking FINALLY found out where the Bay Area's election location is, was planning to start this thread then.  Anyways, I guess Mousavi isn't all THAT bad.  His platform is basically that he can't screw anything up worse than Ahmadinejad.  I was planning on doing a write-in vote for Ron Paul but the election's too close for that.

Also, these opinion polls don't make any sense.  They just bounce back and forth.  If they were rigged, you'd think that there would at least be some consistency.

ToxicAdam

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2009, 07:33:25 AM »
Why does Iran still matter? Aside from Bush elevating them to the status of national bogeyman, they're essentially irrelevant on the national scene.

« Last Edit: June 11, 2009, 08:07:19 AM by ToxicAdam »

Veidt

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2009, 07:50:47 AM »
@ToxicAdam

Bush might be gone, but Israel is still faced with a potential threat to their regional domination. Now, Obama is trying his best to handle it differently and put the needs of the US citizens above the wants of a few Israeli hardliners. Which is why you get reactions like these:

 http://www.philipweiss.org/mondoweiss/2009/06/max-blumenthal-feeling-the-hate-in-jerusalem-on-eve-of-obamas-cairo-address.html
On his manner of engagement.

Anyway, I hope Ahmadinijad loses.

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2009, 08:55:25 AM »
Why does Iran still matter? Aside from Bush elevating them to the status of national bogeyman, they're essentially irrelevant on the national scene.



As long as we are involved in the middle east either in the microscopic level of being in Iraq and Afghanistan, or even at a higher level of the Israel/Palestinian conflict or our Israel policy in general, Iran will matter to some degree.

Now someone could argue the case that we shouldn't be so highly involved in either but that is a much larger debate on America's role as a superpower or as a sort of policemen of the world which neither party takes the anti position on outside of Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich types. Republicans nor Democrats in the mainstream are isolationists to use that potentially pejorative term.

As far as the actual election I hope Ahmadinejad loses simply because of a lot of his statements on the national stage, not that I suddenly think Mousavi will be some 180 degree flip on most international issues (especially since he won't dictate actual policy on most of these issues because of the structure of their government) but he couldn't be any worse I would think. I'm skeptical Ahmadinejad will lose though.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2009, 09:05:37 AM by Stoney Mason »

ToxicAdam

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2009, 09:19:46 AM »
Stoney, did you get banned again?

Nice to see you here.


Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2009, 09:21:53 AM »
Stoney, did you get banned again?

Yep. For two weeks.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2009, 09:38:29 AM by Stoney Mason »

Fragamemnon

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2009, 12:00:37 PM »
I heard you went off on JayDubya's FoC-esque randroid douchebaggery. Good show.
hex

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2009, 02:43:30 PM »
Good blogging update site to get a sense of the action. Turnout was immense.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2009/jun/12/iran-middleeast

Quote
6.35pm:
As night fell on Tehran the heavens opened with a deliciously cooling
downpour after a very long hot day, writes Ian Black in his final blog posting of the day.

Amazingly, polling stations are still open and heaving, with voting extended for a fourth extra hour to accommodate what by all accounts is a massive voter turnout that could even break the 1997 record.

Friends in the Mousavi camp can hardly contain their excitement at what they think is the likelihood of imminent victory. But they say they are worried about a last-minute hitch: the meaning of a reported shortage of ballot papers in some places, for example, and ominous predictions that the regime may lash out if Ahmadinejad does lose.

A Revolutionary Guard warning about not tolerating a "velvet revolution" by the Iranian "greens" has been noted with some alarm. The blocking of SMS messages throughout the day was almost certainly designed to disrupt contact between Mousavi supporters.

"We are all very excited," said a North Tehran photographer, "but we fear that we may have to pay for our empowerment."

Cheebs

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2009, 03:17:04 PM »
The American media is going to give the credit to Obama's speech if Amiajdjjdajdjajdjadid goes down but he was way behind in the polls long before Obama's speech.

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2009, 03:31:05 PM »
The American media is going to give the credit to Obama's speech if Amiajdjjdajdjajdjadid goes down but he was way behind in the polls long before Obama's speech.

Polling is notoriously difficult to do in societies like Iran and even less accurate because of the demographics of voting in that particular society.

Our media is dumb and awful as a general rule on anything that is beyond the simplest issues.

The reasons why these things happen are for a myriad of reasons, mostly specific to that society. Of course not having an openly antagonistic American president gives less chance for Ahmadinejad to demagogue and whip up the the pure Anti-American vote.

Cheebs

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2009, 03:33:49 PM »
I am not saying Obama himself and Obama's actions aren't a factor, they clearly are. It just it will be blown out of proportion here assuming the guy gets defeated. Not cause of any bias, more because it makes a good story.

T-Short

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Brehvolution

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2009, 04:43:20 PM »
Seattle-bore should recognize this guy immediately.  Rick Steves did a pretty good travel documentary of Iran recently.  I'm not sure if it's on PBS's website, but it's on youtube.  Definitely worth a watch (if you can spare an hour):

[youtube=560,345][/youtube]
Great interview of a young female student in the second video at 4:34.  Rick Steves  :pimp

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2009, 05:09:10 PM »
This is gonna be nasty.

Quote
Iran rivals both declare victory 
 
The two main candidates in Iran's presidential election have claimed victory, after extended voting as huge numbers of people turned out to vote.

Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi told a news conference that he had won by a substantial margin.

However, state media said incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won, and electoral officials said partial results put him ahead on 69%.

But Mr Mousavi has complained of some voting irregularities.

He said there had been a shortage of ballot papers and millions of people had been denied the right to vote.

His election monitors were not allowed enough access to polling stations, he added, saying he would deal seriously with any fraud.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says that, with the count barely having begun, this could be a case of the two candidates just sending a warning.


 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8098305.stm

Ganhyun

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2009, 05:13:25 PM »
This is gonna be nasty.

Quote
Iran rivals both declare victory 
 
The two main candidates in Iran's presidential election have claimed victory, after extended voting as huge numbers of people turned out to vote.

Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi told a news conference that he had won by a substantial margin.

However, state media said incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won, and electoral officials said partial results put him ahead on 69%.

But Mr Mousavi has complained of some voting irregularities.

He said there had been a shortage of ballot papers and millions of people had been denied the right to vote.

His election monitors were not allowed enough access to polling stations, he added, saying he would deal seriously with any fraud.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says that, with the count barely having begun, this could be a case of the two candidates just sending a warning.


 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8098305.stm


oh boy. you are right about it likely getting nasty Stoney.
XDF

Cheebs

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2009, 05:42:58 PM »
It's Iran, a confusing unreliable election result is not that surprising to me.

etiolate

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FlameOfCallandor

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2009, 06:07:00 PM »
Quote
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks live on television after casting his ballot in the Iranian presidential election in Tehran June 12, 2009. The post of Supreme Leader is Iran's highest ranking political and religious authority - higher than the office of the president - and is elected by Iran's 86-member Islamic "Assembly of Experts", not by popular vote.

What does the president do that's different from the supreme leader?

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2009, 06:20:50 PM »
Quote
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks live on television after casting his ballot in the Iranian presidential election in Tehran June 12, 2009. The post of Supreme Leader is Iran's highest ranking political and religious authority - higher than the office of the president - and is elected by Iran's 86-member Islamic "Assembly of Experts", not by popular vote.

What does the president do that's different from the supreme leader?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Iran
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assembly_of_Experts

Phoenix Dark

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2009, 06:41:49 PM »
FoC: uh you didn't answer my question
010

Joe Molotov

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2009, 06:51:19 PM »
Quote
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks live on television after casting his ballot in the Iranian presidential election in Tehran June 12, 2009. The post of Supreme Leader is Iran's highest ranking political and religious authority - higher than the office of the president - and is elected by Iran's 86-member Islamic "Assembly of Experts", not by popular vote.

What does the president do that's different from the supreme leader?




Only the Supreme Leader gets to have an enormous beard.
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FlameOfCallandor

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2009, 07:07:37 PM »
FoC: uh you didn't answer my question

Watchu talkin about? What question?

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2009, 09:12:44 PM »
Seems like the fix is in.

Quote
n Iran, first results give Ahmadinejad commanding lead
His challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is claiming irregularities. Police moved quickly to quell small protests.

By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

TEHRAN, IRAN - Electoral officials announced a strong lead for Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, even as his main challenger claimed irregularities and stated that he had won Friday's contest.

Results of 47.3 percent of the vote, announced at 2 a.m., gave Mr. Ahmadinejad 67 percent of the vote, compared with 30.34 percent for Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose "green wave" of supporters had sparked popular street demonstrations during the campaign.

Mr. Mousavi argued that he had won an outright victory. "In line with the information we have received, I am the winner of this election by a substantial margin," he stated late on Friday.

Mousavi asked Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, to intervene.

At least three pro-Mousavi websites were shut down on Friday – along with that of the candidate himself. The results came through uncommonly quickly overnight, far faster than all elections of previous years.

In a statement Friday night on Fars news agency, Ahmadinejad's campaign said that "a golden page in the glorious history of the Islamic revolution has been witnessed." It praised the Iranian people for showing that while "reaching toward justice and fighting oppression, they will not stand down, and they will go against any darkness and filth."

TEARS AND ANGER ON THE STREET

Mousavi's loyalists – who had expected a victory over the divisive incumbent – were not buying the results. Police placed concrete barriers and several rows of police cars to block access to the Ministry of Interior, where votes were being tabulated and announced.

Hundreds of Mousavi supporters, frustrated, angry, and some with tears in their eyes, gathered in the front of the campaign headquarters in a state of shock.

"If there is rigging, Iran will be like judgment day!" they chanted. "Mousavi: Congratulations on your presidency!"


On Friday night, the mostly young Iranians who had flooded the streets with such abandon and political brashness during Iran's electrifying three-week campaign, were being chased outside the campaign headquarters by small groups of police and other security elements wielding batons and kicking, pepper-spraying, and punching people.

One diminutive young woman walked away from the after-midnight melee clutching her belly, where she had been hit, and sobbing. One man had boot marks on his arm where he had been kicked; another showed graze marks from a baton.

"I think this is psychological warfare," said one Mousavi supporter. "They want to scare us and give us the idea that we are losing."

It may have been working, as more results began to come out that showed Ahmadinejad with a commanding lead. The tumultuous, mud-slinging campaign and ever-growing street protests had prompted many analysts to predict a first-round victory for Mousavi.

First-ever debates focused on accusations and countercharges of lying over even basic statistics like inflation and employment figures. Playing on the theme, one Mousavi supporter early Saturday morning was despondent.

He said: "If they can play around with statistics, they can play around with votes."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0613/p06s10-wome.html

Ganhyun

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2009, 09:19:29 PM »
So the real question is was there real tampering or not? If so, how far will the reactions go?
XDF

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #29 on: June 12, 2009, 09:23:06 PM »
So the real question is was there real tampering or not? If so, how far will the reactions go?

In a society with that sort of leadership structure I doubt they will be very forthcoming on opening up the results of the election to outside scrutiny. Seems very surprising/unlikely that Ahmadinejad would be able to garner such a large win with such a large voting turnout without something fishy going on.

Ganhyun

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #30 on: June 12, 2009, 09:32:22 PM »
So the real question is was there real tampering or not? If so, how far will the reactions go?

In a society with that sort of leadership structure I doubt they will be very forthcoming on opening up the results of the election to outside scrutiny. Seems very surprising/unlikely that Ahmadinejad would be able to garner such a large win with such a large voting turnout without something fishy going on.


I agree. I didnt specify enough with my comment though. I was thinking of the reactions of those inside Iran.
XDF

Crushed

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #31 on: June 12, 2009, 09:36:45 PM »
Conservatism wins again in the Middle East.
wtc

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #32 on: June 12, 2009, 09:42:53 PM »
I agree. I didnt specify enough with my comment though. I was thinking of the reactions of those inside Iran.

We'll see I guess. Although in societies without strong historical committments to Democracy and the different facets of freedom of speech it's hard to really imagine an effective or tangible reaction although occasionally it does happen in these sorts of societies of course.

Not conclusively saying Ahmadinejad didn't really win at this stage even without more info. I was always a bit skeptical of the some of the so called polling data that had Mousavi destroying him but like I said with this high level of turnout it strikes me as a bit dubious as an outsider looking in. If your vote counting process isn't open then there will always be doubts and questions.



Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything. - Josef Stalin
« Last Edit: June 12, 2009, 09:45:40 PM by Stoney Mason »

etiolate

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #33 on: June 12, 2009, 09:45:48 PM »
the bore will comfort the despondent young Iranian women

Brehvolution

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #34 on: June 12, 2009, 09:52:07 PM »
the bore will comfort the despondent young Iranian women

:drool

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Ganhyun

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #35 on: June 12, 2009, 09:59:07 PM »
:drool indeed
XDF

cool breeze

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #36 on: June 12, 2009, 09:59:22 PM »
I can't find Iranian women attractive because they all remind me of my family  :'(

Olivia Wilde Homo

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #37 on: June 12, 2009, 10:22:54 PM »
People like to overestimate how many Iranians want reform.  I remember the same thing happening last election.
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etiolate

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #38 on: June 12, 2009, 10:25:23 PM »
I can't find Iranian women attractive because they all remind me of my family  :'(


we will be the vienna in this persopolis

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #39 on: June 12, 2009, 10:29:33 PM »
People like to overestimate how many Iranians want reform.  I remember the same thing happening last election.

There is always a horserace model the media follows for these stories no matter what the country also which doesn't help. Couple that with poor or non-existent independent polling. And not exactly the most open and free society and you have a recipe for this sort of thing.

The only bright side is that like in nearly all countries the first results are from rural smaller areas which tend to favor the "conservative" or "traditional" candidates. It takes longer to count the larger urban areas and cities which tend to be more "liberal" so those get reported last. So you often have a pattern where a conservative leads a liberal early and then the race closes.  Still if those early vote totals are correct which is like half the vote so far it seems impossible for Mousavi to catch up unless he wins the last half in a commanding manner.


Phoenix Dark

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #40 on: June 12, 2009, 10:35:31 PM »
Wow, massive blow to the Obama administration
010

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #41 on: June 12, 2009, 10:37:12 PM »
Wow, massive blow to the Obama administration

This will be the next Hannity, Limbaugh, Gingrich, Drudge meme...
« Last Edit: June 12, 2009, 10:39:19 PM by Stoney Mason »

Olivia Wilde Homo

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #42 on: June 12, 2009, 10:45:30 PM »
People like to overestimate how many Iranians want reform.  I remember the same thing happening last election.

There is always a horserace model the media follows for these stories no matter what the country also which doesn't help. Couple that with poor or non-existent independent polling. And not exactly the most open and free society and you have a recipe for this sort of thing.

The only bright side is that like in nearly all countries the first results are from rural smaller areas which tend to favor the "conservative" or "traditional" candidates. It takes longer to count the larger urban areas and cities which tend to be more "liberal" so those get reported last. So you often have a pattern where a conservative leads a liberal early and then the race closes.  Still if those early vote totals are correct which is like half the vote so far it seems impossible for Mousavi to catch up unless he wins the last half in a commanding manner.



I'm not saying the votes aren't manipulated or that Ahmadinejad has this in the bag yet but this time and the previous election, there were always stories of "Iran is headed towards reform and here's why..." and then the results turn out to be the opposite.
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Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #43 on: June 12, 2009, 10:53:27 PM »
Just like America or any country there is a tendency to occasionally mistake the intensity of the opposition to tell a story related to the numbers of the opposition. See our country in 2004.

It's also probably a little unfair to sometimes gauge the citizens of a country when the deck is stacked so far to one side. It's probably much harder to be identified as in league with those who want reform in a society so stacked against reform or indeed any change from a leadership perspective.

The most puzzling part like I said is the very large turnout. It's hard to imagine that such a large turnout is simply a sign of how awesome Ahmadinejad is which leads to understandably casting a dubious eye on the voting results.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2009, 10:54:59 PM by Stoney Mason »

recursivelyenumerable

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #44 on: June 12, 2009, 11:10:50 PM »
Ahmadinejad apparently won the 2005 election 62-36, so this result doesn't seem all that far-fetched unless 2005 was also fixed (which seems prima facie unlikely to me since his opponent was Rafsanjani who is a powerful insider, but it's not like I know anything).
QED

etiolate

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #45 on: June 12, 2009, 11:13:56 PM »
the percentage won't be as interesting as the totals will be

There is supposedly a larger turnout than previously. If the totals don't reflect that then it is suspect. Reportedly, the rural base for Ahmadinejad is 10-12 mill and if his totals are much higher than that then it is suspect.

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #46 on: June 12, 2009, 11:58:16 PM »
Quote
By early Saturday, Ahmadinejad had 65.2 percent and Mousavi had 31.8 percent with 77 percent of all votes counted, said Kamran Daneshjoo, a senior official with the Interior Ministry, which oversees the voting. 

Based on figures released by the ministry, around 75 percent of the 46.2 million eligible voters went to the polls.

There was no sign of increased security, but the warnings had already been issued.

The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary Guard cautioned Wednesday it would crush any "revolution" against the Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement." The interior ministry said all rallies or political gatherings would be banned until after the formal announcement of results later Saturday.

Mousavi, however, was equally harsh — accusing the Islamic establishment was "manipulating the people's vote" to keep Ahmadinejad in power.

"I'll pursue this. I won't give up. There is no way back," he said.



brawndolicious

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #47 on: June 13, 2009, 12:28:57 AM »
My voting timeline..

2:30-Leave home.

3:20-Arrive at the one Bay Area voting location.  They ran out of votes about an hour before and somebody was driving up from LA with 600 more ballots.

4:50-Ballots arrive.  By now, there is probably around 500 voters in the Hilton's lobby.

5:40-They finally get everybody organized and give them a number between 1-600.  I'm number 357.

7:15-It's my turn to vote.

8:20-I finally arrive back home.

tl:dr I spent 6 hours to vote in a possibly rigged election.  It wouldn't surprise me that Ahmadinejad won since a lot of people I know said that they liked his platform (Iranians don't really like Israel).  I think the early polls were probably really inaccurate or something.

Barry Egan

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #48 on: June 13, 2009, 12:37:21 AM »
Who did you vote for?

Brehvolution

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #49 on: June 13, 2009, 12:40:05 AM »
I do not see how these election results mean Obama's speech failed.  ???
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Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #50 on: June 13, 2009, 12:49:27 AM »
Who did you vote for?

I hate when people ask people this. Just saying...

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #51 on: June 13, 2009, 12:50:54 AM »
I do not see how these election results mean Obama's speech failed.  ???


It doesn't. They aren't even connected. But you know some dumb talking head Republican on the radio, or in office will say it.

Barry Egan

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #52 on: June 13, 2009, 12:52:13 AM »
yeah it's totally a rude question, but its the internet so y'know, whatever!  It's not like we're at a cocktail party and he's going to have to awkwardly segue his way out of answering
« Last Edit: June 13, 2009, 12:53:57 AM by Chipopo »

Stoney Mason

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #53 on: June 13, 2009, 01:15:58 AM »
Quote
Update V: At about 7:30am Tehran time, the U.S.-based Iranian academic writes, "I have been exchanging emails, phone calls, and been in touch with
young, old, men, women, ...and been in touch with people from inside
each campaign (AN and Mousavi). These numbers have surprised even the
supporters  of AN. What is more, the journalists are saying in the
Interior Ministry there has been no explanations, no interviews, just
reading the numbers to journalists. It is mind-boggling at this point.
It is not over by any means; unless reformers want to lay down and
play dead."

He later adds, "The loser either way is Khamenie (if there is a widespread belief that this was rigged). However, I cannot believe given the scope of participation that it would be such a blow out (even as the percentage of booths has nothing to do with the percentage of the vote give because the size of these booths are not the same). However, no one I know can believe these numbers. Something does not add up."

Another Washington-based Iran watcher said at about 11pm EST that Iranian-state-officials are claiming vote counts in the Iranian city of Isfahan show Ahmadinejad winning 3-1. Which would seem a bit absurd - or else a total contrary result from what pre-election reporting indicated. He said there seems to be a waiting for two things: what Mousavi says, and what Rafsanjani says.

Another nice live blogging update site.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/12/obama_on_the_iranian_elections

brawndolicious

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #54 on: June 13, 2009, 01:17:50 AM »
I voted for mousavi.  There's nothing competent about the now re-elected president but he does piss off Israel and Iranians don't want to send a mixed message on how they feel about that particular country.  I guess this election basically shows that if you question the holocaust, you don't need any other qualifications to become the president of Iran.  Especially considering the difference in maturity showed during the Mousavi-Ahmadinejad debate.

This election sort of reminds me of how Bush fucked up by starting the Iraq war and yet he got re-elected because some people didn't want to switch presidents in the middle of a war.

Mandark

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #55 on: June 13, 2009, 01:20:39 AM »
Ahmadinejad apparently won the 2005 election 62-36, so this result doesn't seem all that far-fetched unless 2005 was also fixed (which seems prima facie unlikely to me since his opponent was Rafsanjani who is a powerful insider, but it's not like I know anything).

I've read allegations that the first round results in 2005 were manipulated and Karroubi should have finished second rather than Ahmadinejad.  No idea if they're credible.

brawndolicious

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #56 on: June 13, 2009, 02:00:26 AM »
The problem for Obama is that he's expected to give a response about the election but he's not allowed to question the honesty of it or else he'll piss off Ahmadinejad and possibly even Iranians.  Ahmadinejad I think could have won but the margin that he won by makes no sense.  Obama has to know how suspicious the results are and so it'll be interesting to see if he says what he's thinking or if he'll try to play nice with the "mad Mullah".

ToxicAdam

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #57 on: June 13, 2009, 02:36:01 AM »
In a way, I think it's better for the US that Ahmadinejad wins. He's a known quantity and (if you believe people from the left) a lightening rod with little political power in actuality. Mousavi seems like a real unknown and unlikely to make any real drastic changes (for the positive) if he were elected.


Cheebs

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Re: It's the official Iranian election thread!
« Reply #58 on: June 13, 2009, 02:39:21 AM »
Ahmadinejad apparently won the 2005 election 62-36, so this result doesn't seem all that far-fetched unless 2005 was also fixed (which seems prima facie unlikely to me since his opponent was Rafsanjani who is a powerful insider, but it's not like I know anything).
The economy is a mess in Iran, Ahmadinejad has lost a lot of popularity. There is NO way he would have a bigger margin after that. It is obviously fixed. But like I said earlier, that doesn't surprise me in the least. It's Iran still.

Mandark

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OH GOD SHUT UP CHEEBS
« Reply #59 on: June 13, 2009, 02:42:22 AM »
In a way, I think it's better for the US that Ahmadinejad wins. He's a known quantity and (if you believe people from the left) a lightening rod with little political power in actuality. Mousavi seems like a real unknown and unlikely to make any real drastic changes (for the positive) if he were elected.

I wouldn't call Mousavi unknown.  He was prime minister of Iran almost all throughout the 80's and was a primary adviser/mentor to Khatami.