THE BORE

General => The Superdeep Borehole => Topic started by: I'm a Puppy! on July 31, 2020, 12:45:12 AM

Title: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: I'm a Puppy! on July 31, 2020, 12:45:12 AM
I think he's up against the ropes and feeling the crunch and my money is that when he's faced with an obvious defeat he'd rather declare victory and make himself a martyr and be like "It's unfair. So I'm not going to run." Like the bully kid when he finds he can't win the game takes his ball and goes home.

I admit it's an outside chance. But I still think it could happen.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 12:48:43 AM
My money is on the normie outcome: he stays in, loses, grouses about "fraud" but doesn't resist the transition.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on July 31, 2020, 12:51:03 AM
The reason he wants to pull the election is because he knows he'll go to prison when he's no longer president. Being president is the only thing saving him. Why would he resign? lol He's stayed in this far.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: EchoRin on July 31, 2020, 12:52:15 AM
I agree with the coward.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: team filler on July 31, 2020, 12:57:33 AM
trumps have about as much chance of seeing prison as the bides
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: OnlyRegret on July 31, 2020, 01:33:26 AM
paging shosty to come take ur monies and rewrite the timeline if needed
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 01:35:21 AM
paging shosty to come take ur monies and rewrite the timeline if needed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-0uGEl42kc
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: james on July 31, 2020, 01:43:26 AM
If the 1200 gets approved im ready to jump into as many bets as possible
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: VomKriege on July 31, 2020, 01:55:31 AM
If the 1200 gets approved im ready to jump into as many bets as possible

https://youtu.be/oRValgHDvxE
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: james on July 31, 2020, 02:07:36 AM
But Germany did win

 :doge
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: EightBitNate on July 31, 2020, 02:43:30 AM
This thread will not age well.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Skullfuckers Anonymous on July 31, 2020, 02:50:07 AM
I think it’s more likely corona gets him.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: nudemacusers on July 31, 2020, 03:10:07 AM
he's going to start his own 'rebel media' type corporation
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Kara on July 31, 2020, 03:21:58 AM
It would be a huge coup if NBC could resign [sic] him to The Apprentice.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Ghoul on July 31, 2020, 07:00:28 AM
please don't say bet, it summons shonda who will drive you off the forum for months.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: VomKriege on July 31, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
But Germany did win

 :doge

Exactly ! Follow your dreams ! Even from the gutter !
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: BisMarckie on July 31, 2020, 07:20:02 AM
Gambling isn’t a problem as long as you’re winning :money
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: CatsCatsCats on July 31, 2020, 08:25:15 AM
Oh okay, we’re making our wishes bets now?
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: ToxicAdam on July 31, 2020, 08:47:40 AM
He’s a classic narcissist. He still believes he can win and when he doesn’t he’ll pivot into full blown victim to garner as much sympathy as he can.

I could see a scenario where he bows out during the lame duck months though. December is usually a quiet time in DC.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on July 31, 2020, 09:28:27 AM
the last time i bet someone on this forum they refused to honor it when they decisively lost.  :doge
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tasty on July 31, 2020, 09:34:50 AM
Not sure I'd rather have Trump or Pence.

Same situation with Bush/Cheney back in the day.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Trurl on July 31, 2020, 10:00:39 AM
I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Human Snorenado on July 31, 2020, 10:35:41 AM
I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.

Absent some cataclysmic shift or momentous event, I doubt that can happen.

The trick will be having results reported in a timely and decisive manner to remove "doubt" in the process.

I'm heavily skeptical that Biden can win in places like Texas and Georgia but all the places that Trump barely won or lost by like 3-4 points or less are in play, and some others like Iowa and Ohio too. Doing the math on those makes Trump's chances basically nonexistent, unless he deploys his SS DHS troops all over the country to beat the shit out of every black person on election day (which, let's be honest, is a distinct possibility)

If he DOES lose man he's gonna pardon everyone in the last couple weeks. I could also see him resign after having pre-emptively pardoning Pence for Pence to pardon him.

But he'll never serve any time, there's no justice in this world. He'll be around on Twitter and his own show on Sinclair or start his own network.

The only way to ever really be free of Trumpism would be to kill him, his family, and all of his fucking idiot followers, which is like at least 27% of the country. Barring that we could give them all Texas to ruin and build a wall around it.  Sorry, Austin. Sacrifices have to be made!
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: thisismyusername on July 31, 2020, 10:52:43 AM
The only way to ever really be free of Trumpism would be to kill him, his family, and all of his fucking idiot followers, which is like at least 27% of the country. Barring that we could give them all Texas to ruin and build a wall around it.  Sorry, Austin. Sacrifices have to be made!

Austin has EviLore, so nothing of value would be lost. :doge
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: bork on July 31, 2020, 11:05:12 AM
I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.

Yeah.  Everyone was so sure he wouldn't get elected the first time around.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tasty on July 31, 2020, 11:10:45 AM
I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.

Yeah.  Everyone was so sure he wouldn't get elected the first time around.

Even Mandark?!
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 12:22:39 PM
I didn't think he'd win the primaries!

I thought his campaign would follow roughly the same arc as Herman Cain's (pizza be upon him).
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Nintex on July 31, 2020, 02:15:10 PM
I'm not sure if he will resign but I'm not ruling it out either.
Trump did really want to beat Clinton though, for some reason she really got on his bad side. It is just not the same with Biden.
Now he's still in the same fight with the media and politicians he was in when he strolled down the escalator to announce he was running.
I always assumed that either the media or Trump would grow tired and give up and sort of 'tolerate' the other side but that never happened.

Before he couldn't resign because of the Russia investigation, now he can't get out because of the Pandemic.
I honestly think he doesn't know what he wants. Clearly the man is only happy when he's golfing with a friend or at his clubs during the weekend.
It doesn't look like he would be very happy if he won in November, in fact he might prefer it if Biden takes over and he doesn't have to deal with this shit anymore.

But then again, this is what most thought in 2016. When Clinton would win with 99% certainty and people thought I was stupid for thinking Trump would win.
I still think it will be much closer than the polls say looking at just how viewership of Fox News increases, local races are close and more followers of Q appear.
A freak coalition of Karen's, Q's, Wank Dad followers, weird Elon Musk fans, and Barstool Sports listeners could carry him into office.
This is what the GOP must be contemplating as well, Biden isn't in the best shape either and Trump only has to carry this thing by the smallest of margins.
With Pence you would never get the voters that Trump brought to the GOP. But is getting those voters worth risking everything?
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 02:16:00 PM
shut the fuck up
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: BIONIC on July 31, 2020, 02:22:01 PM
I’m not reading a word of that, but I’m sure Nintex made great and well-researched points as always.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Nintex on July 31, 2020, 02:25:31 PM
shut the fuck up
The influence of the media dominated by Zuckerberg, Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan is not to be underestimated.
CNN lost viewers since 2016, Fox News only gained them.

The UK assumed the same with Johnson and Brexit.
The Tories had botched up Brexit so bad (and Johnson was partly to blame for the entire mess to begin with) that he couldn't possibly win the election with a majority.
But he beat Corbyn and Labour in a landslide, flipping seats that hadn't been flipped in decades.

Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 02:28:06 PM
spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Nintex on July 31, 2020, 02:53:48 PM
Let's look at YouTube for example.

Joe Biden: A Socially Distanced Conversation: President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden
860k views

Joe Rogan Experience #1516 - Post Malone
5.7 million views
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: james on July 31, 2020, 02:56:04 PM
the last time i bet someone on this forum they refused to honor it when they decisively lost.  :doge

We need a dedicated betting forum to keep tabs
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Great Rumbler on July 31, 2020, 02:59:33 PM
I'm not sure if he will resign but I'm not ruling it out either.
Trump did really want to beat Clinton though, for some reason she really got on his bad side. It is just not the same with Biden.
Now he's still in the same fight with the media and politicians he was in when he strolled down the escalator to announce he was running.
I always assumed that either the media or Trump would grow tired and give up and sort of 'tolerate' the other side but that never happened.

Before he couldn't resign because of the Russia investigation, now he can't get out because of the Pandemic.
I honestly think he doesn't know what he wants. Clearly the man is only happy when he's golfing with a friend or at his clubs during the weekend.
It doesn't look like he would be very happy if he won in November, in fact he might prefer it if Biden takes over and he doesn't have to deal with this shit anymore.

But then again, this is what most thought in 2016. When Clinton would win with 99% certainty and people thought I was stupid for thinking Trump would win.
I still think it will be much closer than the polls say looking at just how viewership of Fox News increases, local races are close and more followers of Q appear.
A freak coalition of Karen's, Q's, Wank Dad followers, weird Elon Musk fans, and Barstool Sports listeners could carry him into office.
This is what the GOP must be contemplating as well, Biden isn't in the best shape either and Trump only has to carry this thing by the smallest of margins.
With Pence you would never get the voters that Trump brought to the GOP. But is getting those voters worth risking everything?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9O94UTDAJQ
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tripon on July 31, 2020, 06:49:16 PM
Only way Trump resigns if he can get an assurance from Pence to give him a full immunity pardon. But Pence has his own political future to look at, so that's a bit up in the air.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: EchoRin on July 31, 2020, 06:53:29 PM
Ugh. The idea of Pence assuming the role of POTUS for even one day makes me want to hurl.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: bdoughty on July 31, 2020, 06:55:11 PM
I will bet my existence here that we get four more years of Trump.

Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 06:58:23 PM
what sort of odds would you put on that?
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Stoney Mason on July 31, 2020, 06:58:25 PM
I will bet my existence here that we get four more years of Trump.

With a country full of you, its not out of the question I suppose.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 06:59:52 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: bdoughty on July 31, 2020, 07:00:30 PM
With a country full of you, its not out of the question I suppose.

Not voting for Trump or Biden, sorry.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Human Snorenado on July 31, 2020, 07:01:01 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Deploying enough DHS goons to beat minority voters to death for voting once voting starts
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Stoney Mason on July 31, 2020, 07:01:28 PM
With a country full of you, its not out of the question I suppose.

Not voting for Trump or Biden, sorry.

sure
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Human Snorenado on July 31, 2020, 07:01:53 PM
The real bet should be someone wagering nintex's continued existence here on a Trump win
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: bdoughty on July 31, 2020, 07:03:42 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

A debate would be a disaster for Biden.

Also that sumg fart sniffing arrogance from Liberals. Of all places fivethirtyeight.  :doge

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Stoney Mason on July 31, 2020, 07:04:24 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Despite whatever the polls say, and despite whatever the current environment appears the last election taught me never to underestimate the dumbness and bigotry of the American people. If Trump loses, then good. We decided not to re-elect the racist in chief we decided to elect 4 years ago. I don't think reason and logic are what people use to vote anyway.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 07:05:14 PM
but polling...was right...
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Stoney Mason on July 31, 2020, 07:10:13 PM
but polling...was right...

Honestly for me personally, I'm just here to talk shit so you can mostly ignore me on a serious level. I don't care in a real way. At this point I've reached the Carlin level of disdain where I fully don't care if/when the whole system collapses. I'll always vote, but I no longer carry any expectations. Dumb asses gonna dumb ass. I can't be surprised anymore.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 07:12:14 PM
no I agree with you, that was pointed towards bdoughty for trying to slander the polling weights and analysis of 538
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 07:12:56 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

1) Let's say Biden's ~8% ahead right now.

2) The race "naturally" tightens: all the coronavirus effects are already baked in, it's a very polarized electorate, etc. Brings us down to say ~5% lead.

3) Trump has an electoral college advantage. This might have grown since 2016, since the demographic trends (rural/exurban non-college white voters trending Republican) are especially favorable for the GOP in the midwest. Cuts it down to 1-2% for Biden in the tipping point states.

4) The pandemic makes Democrats much more likely to use mail-in voting than Republicans. Mail-in votes have a higher tendency to get rejected than in-person votes and the GOP is going to be very, very aggressive in challenging them. Also many states aren't set up for mass mail voting, and require votes to be delivered by Election Day, rather than mailed by Election Day, and Trump's been undermining the USPS.

5) Voila.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: bdoughty on July 31, 2020, 07:22:38 PM
no I agree with you, that was pointed towards bdoughty for trying to slander the polling weights and analysis of 538

Slander?   :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D ::)

From Nate's own mouth. He admits a normal polling error was all it would take for a Trump win. Sure he gave Trump a small chance in hell to win. He just never expected it to actually happen and spent weeks defending his polling to people mocking him and other polling sources.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 07:27:35 PM
he gave trump like a 30% chance to win

he was being criticized from the left because they thought he was exaggerating trump's chances: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 07:42:00 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

1) Let's say Biden's ~8% ahead right now.

2) The race "naturally" tightens: all the coronavirus effects are already baked in, it's a very polarized electorate, etc. Brings us down to say ~5% lead.

3) Trump has an electoral college advantage. This might have grown since 2016, since the demographic trends (rural/exurban non-college white voters trending Republican) are especially favorable for the GOP in the midwest. Cuts it down to 1-2% for Biden in the tipping point states.

4) The pandemic makes Democrats much more likely to use mail-in voting than Republicans. Mail-in votes have a higher tendency to get rejected than in-person votes and the GOP is going to be very, very aggressive in challenging them. Also many states aren't set up for mass mail voting, and require votes to be delivered by Election Day, rather than mailed by Election Day, and Trump's been undermining the USPS.

5) Voila.

Sure this all makes sense to me.  But do you actually think all of this is likely to happen, considering Biden's strong advantage is states like Michigan, PA, and Florida?
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 07:51:24 PM
538's average polling margins for Biden vs. Trump:

National: +8.2%

Michigan: +8.1%
Wisconsin: +7.0%
Pennsylvania: +6.6%
Florida: +5.9%

Right now PA's the tipping point state and is polling worse for Biden than the national average by a point and a half. Several things have to break Trump's way for him to win and I don't think it's likely but it's also not impossible.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: brawndolicious on July 31, 2020, 07:56:59 PM
If he didn't quit in October 2016 then he's probably not going to quit now. Unless he's actually worried about getting prosecuted which wasn't an issue for him 4 years ago.

Not sure I'd rather have Trump or Pence.

Same situation with Bush/Cheney back in the day.

A depressed, lame-duck Pence versus a fully delusional Trump?? Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy. But that takes time and the term is almost over, while Trump does plenty of damage just using Twitter and executive orders. Like if he loses in November, I would actually be afraid of him doing something insane like a military strike or something.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tasty on July 31, 2020, 08:05:11 PM
Quote
Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy.

Hence my argument.

A lot of Trump's worst stuff has been rolled back. His most dangerous aspect is his base, who are galvanized the further he stays in office. SCOTUS works. Congress failing to get anything passed is... more or less how it should work considering the big picture. Trump had the worst war hawk in living memory yelling in his ear to bomb more of the middle east, and he still basically refused.

Pence is Cheney.

Ugh. The idea of Pence assuming the role of POTUS for even one day makes me want to hurl.

(https://i.imgur.com/PiOMlsD.png)
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Human Snorenado on July 31, 2020, 08:19:30 PM
Personally fwiw I think that there will be some natural tightening to happen but it's like, 1-2 points worth and is mostly people that aren't really "undecided" finally deciding.

I think the following things will be true:

1. Trump's numbers have a chance of improving to close to 2016 levels if the pandemic were brought under control.

2. The pandemic will not be brought under control.

3. A debate is not really going to help Trump unless Biden physically dies or has a seizure during it. Biden has seemed "senior-y" in some appearances lately but of the two Trump has been acting far more senile. A side by side comparison will not be good for Trump.

4. Trump could marginally improve his numbers by shutting the fuck up and being a semi-normal human being.

5. Trump is incapable of that. I mean fuck, he's incapable of NOT doubling down on supporting the demon sperm doctor.

Trump will lose by a slightly worse margin than McCain lost to Obama in 2008, and the GOP will lose a net of 6 Senate seats. That's my official prediction 95 days out. YOU'RE WELCOME.

(I'm sure bdoughty has a different take but let's be honest- he believes in GOP economic policies, so)
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: bdoughty on July 31, 2020, 08:35:59 PM
(I'm sure bdoughty has a different take but let's be honest- he believes in GOP economic policies, so)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM6EHcPFKCQ
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tripon on July 31, 2020, 08:37:46 PM
I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tasty on July 31, 2020, 08:38:44 PM
I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.

Pence would have had the same number of deaths but due to being skilled in policy no one would have gotten a stimulus check, either.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tasty on July 31, 2020, 08:39:09 PM
:idont
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Kara on July 31, 2020, 08:43:11 PM
I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/us/politics/mike-pence-needle-exchanges-indiana.amp.html

 :piss Mike Piss :piss2
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: brawndolicious on July 31, 2020, 09:02:31 PM
Quote
Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy.

Hence my argument.

A lot of Trump's worst stuff has been rolled back. His most dangerous aspect is his base, who are galvanized the further he stays in office. SCOTUS works. Congress failing to get anything passed is... more or less how it should work considering the big picture. Trump had the worst war hawk in living memory yelling in his ear to bomb more of the middle east, and he still basically refused.

Pence is Cheney.


Dude if it's your last day of work, would you be more concerned about your boss that was incompetent, exploitative, and always did micro-aggressions against your demographic or would you be more worried about a crackhead that walked in waving a gun?

There's only six months left of this term and there's pandemic and on top of that no Republican legislation could get through a Democratically controlled House. Cheney was good at influencing powerful people to gain power for himself. Pence is just a rubber stamp.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on August 01, 2020, 11:22:56 AM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Ruining the post office amid a pandemic. Luckily (or unluckily) black people like myself do not trust the post office to deliver our mail in ballots on time (I requested one for July runoff and got a letter saying my application was wrong a few days before the election day on July 14, the letter was sent on June 20 something and it was now way past the deadline to resend for corrections). Because of that experience I will now be voting irl at the booth. Via early voting of course. I went early in July and the place was empty and full of masks and sanitizer. Felt more clean than the grocery store.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on August 01, 2020, 11:29:58 AM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

A debate would be a disaster for Biden.

Also that sumg fart sniffing arrogance from Liberals. Of all places fivethirtyeight.  :doge

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

Would it? Bernie people like myself thought Bernie would destroy Biden in the debates once it was just the two of them. The opposite happened. Biden is surprisingly good at deflecting Trump argumentation as well and would constantly call trump out on his shit. Trump is a bad debater. All he does is call people names and make extraordinary claims. He has to rely on aides to bring back pandemic recovery details in an interview on Fox news.

Trump, after his bad pandemic and protest responses, combined with endless scandal over his presidency, would be on the defensive. The idea that Biden would lose is cute. Trump has a lot to answer for and a debate would absolutely put more sweat on his brow as an incumbent rather than in 2016 as a fake populist upstart.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on August 01, 2020, 11:42:13 AM
Quote
Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy.

Hence my argument.

A lot of Trump's worst stuff has been rolled back.

Um. Source please. Environmental law, white collar crime, less regulation for health/safety standards (trump wants asbestos legal), political corruption with impunity...these things are flourishing and even if Trumpism dies it will take decades to reverse some of the damage done.

You really, really need to provide a source for this claim. It is wishful thinking at best, willful ignorance at worst.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/most-trump-environmental-rollbacks-will-take-years-to-be-reversed/

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/03/how-trump-is-changing-science-environment/

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/tracking-deregulation-in-the-trump-era/

Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on August 01, 2020, 11:51:51 AM
I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.

Pence would have had the same number of deaths but due to being skilled in policy no one would have gotten a stimulus check, either.

Republican governor's have been spiraling because of a lack of cohesive national plan for Covid.

They have weekly meetings on what to do with Pence, not Trump. But all of this is what if at this point.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Nintex on August 01, 2020, 01:33:35 PM
If they have an exit strategy, I think that they do actually, this is what it probably looks like and the card will be played at the RNC in Florida, or at least that was the plan.

1. Trump can't resign in the middle of the pandemic but he also can't lose to Biden as that would destroy the 'myth' of Teflon don. So he announces he's not running for re-election due to undisclosed 'health reasons' he is willing to share but the family wants to keep private. Now it is clarified, this is not a mental issue or something that will kill him in office but something severe enough that it won't allow him from serving another full term. Through Axios a story leaks that is an early stage cancer.

2. With so little time left the Republicans default to Mike Pence but part of this deal was that Pence would pick a 'Trumpist' as VP, this can be Don Jr., Ivanka, Carlson, ... my money would be on Ivanka.
She has been with Trump on most foreign trips and while Jr. is an 'attack dog' he's also stupid and Trump knows this. Plus Jr. and Eric are both in charge of the company and the trust fund so they can't really do anything presidential in politics until dad is out of office.

3. They engineer a couple of 'health scares' so Trump is rushed to hospital from time to time to score sympathy points. Despite some hating his guts the media and Democrats find it difficult to attack a 70+ year old man dying of cancer and his grieving family.
Ivanka will give an emotional interview a month before the election and pleads that the nation allows her father to die in peace when the time comes.

A) Pence/Ivanka win the election
The plan works, the Democrats find it difficult to run Biden against Pence, who's simply more coherent. It's also hard to attack the GOP on women's issues with Ivanka as VP campaigning hard for the women's vote.
Which she also did for daddy in 2016. About 6 months into the administration Trump is magically 'cured' and plays an active part in the administration. Pence will be a one term President, Ivanka will be at the top of the ticket in 2024.

B) Biden/??? win the election
Trump will say he didn't lose because he didn't run and that Pence is a total loser and his daughter should've been at the top of the ticket. Like he did with the Obama/Romney race he will just keep blaming Pence for the loss, saying that he would've won bigly.
Within 6 months he is declared 100% healthy again and his next grift begins. Ivanka and Carlson are the front runners in the Republican primary of 2024.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on August 01, 2020, 01:37:10 PM
shut the fuck up
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: BIONIC on August 01, 2020, 02:16:59 PM
I didn’t read, but great and direct points as always, Nintex.

Please keep up the good work, friend :salute
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: thisismyusername on August 01, 2020, 02:26:45 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Ruining the post office amid a pandemic. Luckily (or unluckily) black people like myself do not trust the post office to deliver our mail in ballots on time (I requested one for July runoff and got a letter saying my application was wrong a few days before the election day on July 14, the letter was sent on June 20 something and it was now way past the deadline to resend for corrections). Because of that experience I will now be voting irl at the booth. Via early voting of course. I went early in July and the place was empty and full of masks and sanitizer. Felt more clean than the grocery store.

AFAIK, if you do mail-in, you can drive it to the office of elections and drop it off there without sending it by mail.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Tripon on August 01, 2020, 02:44:42 PM
Just.... why write fanfiction.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Mandark on August 01, 2020, 02:50:54 PM
Just.... why write fanfiction.

he's deeply invested in a parasocial relationship with donald trump

it's emotionally painful to admit his boy is a loser so he invents convoluted scenarios as a way to feel better. see also qanon
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on August 01, 2020, 02:56:34 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Ruining the post office amid a pandemic. Luckily (or unluckily) black people like myself do not trust the post office to deliver our mail in ballots on time (I requested one for July runoff and got a letter saying my application was wrong a few days before the election day on July 14, the letter was sent on June 20 something and it was now way past the deadline to resend for corrections). Because of that experience I will now be voting irl at the booth. Via early voting of course. I went early in July and the place was empty and full of masks and sanitizer. Felt more clean than the grocery store.

AFAIK, if you do mail-in, you can drive it to the office of elections and drop it off there without sending it by mail.

I don't think you understand.

I applied for a mail in ballot. Something came out wrong, and I got my application sent back to me. Deadline for mail in ballots was July 2. I got my letter back after that date. The letter was sent back to me on June 20 something. I didn't receive it for almost 2 weeks after the fact, by which point mail in deadline already passed.

I refuse to even consider the possibility of mail in now because even applying can go wrong.

I'll vote irl instead.

I will and have relayed that you can take it to the office of elections to others that want to mail in but I will not be making that choice.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Human Snorenado on August 01, 2020, 05:16:49 PM
I know multiple people in GA that applied for mail in ballots for the primary and received them after the primary date (keep in mind the primary was delayed TWICE so not a very good track record, in addition to all of the past and recent history GA has with voting rights issues... yeah, I wouldn't trust it here in GA either)

Another factor is that in GA (different in every state) the only real way to know your vote has been counted on the state Sec of state's website is to do in person early voting, which is what I plan on doing.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: VomKriege on August 01, 2020, 05:26:13 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

After last time, I think there's no harm in trying to avoid complacency and by campaigning as if you were the challenger (which Biden is). There's no harm to it. Well apart from letting everyone down once in office after repeating IT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION IN YOUR LIVES.
:goty

There's a pandemic going on already disrupting the organisation of the election, the incumbent is unpredictable and you can't really rule out that one of the many October Surprises™ the Trump campaign will undoubtedly conjure could stick.

I guess the TLDR is : I don't see Trump stepping down before the vote.
Title: Re: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come
Post by: Himu on August 01, 2020, 05:27:27 PM
I know multiple people in GA that applied for mail in ballots for the primary and received them after the primary date (keep in mind the primary was delayed TWICE so not a very good track record, in addition to all of the past and recent history GA has with voting rights issues... yeah, I wouldn't trust it here in GA either)

Another factor is that in GA (different in every state) the only real way to know your vote has been counted on the state Sec of state's website is to do in person early voting, which is what I plan on doing.

This exactly.