Author Topic: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come (Read 7810 times)

I'm a Puppy! · « **on:** July 31, 2020, 12:45:12 AM »

I think he's up against the ropes and feeling the crunch and my money is that when he's faced with an obvious defeat he'd rather declare victory and make himself a martyr and be like "It's unfair. So I'm not going to run." Like the bully kid when he finds he can't win the game takes his ball and goes home.

I admit it's an outside chance. But I still think it could happen.

Mandark · « **Reply #1 on:** July 31, 2020, 12:48:43 AM »

My money is on the normie outcome: he stays in, loses, grouses about "fraud" but doesn't resist the transition.

Himu · « **Reply #2 on:** July 31, 2020, 12:51:03 AM »

The reason he wants to pull the election is because he knows he'll go to prison when he's no longer president. Being president is the only thing saving him. Why would he resign? lol He's stayed in this far.

EchoRin · « **Reply #3 on:** July 31, 2020, 12:52:15 AM »

I agree with the coward.

team filler · « **Reply #4 on:** July 31, 2020, 12:57:33 AM »

trumps have about as much chance of seeing prison as the bides

OnlyRegret · « **Reply #5 on:** July 31, 2020, 01:33:26 AM »

paging shosty to come take ur monies and rewrite the timeline if needed

Mandark · « **Reply #6 on:** July 31, 2020, 01:35:21 AM »

Quote from: OnlyRegret on July 31, 2020, 01:33:26 AM

paging shosty to come take ur monies and rewrite the timeline if needed

james · « **Reply #7 on:** July 31, 2020, 01:43:26 AM »

If the 1200 gets approved im ready to jump into as many bets as possible

VomKriege · « **Reply #8 on:** July 31, 2020, 01:55:31 AM »

Quote from: james on July 31, 2020, 01:43:26 AM

If the 1200 gets approved im ready to jump into as many bets as possible

james · « **Reply #9 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:07:36 AM »

But Germany did win

EightBitNate · « **Reply #10 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:43:30 AM »

This thread will not age well.

Skullfuckers Anonymous · « **Reply #11 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:50:07 AM »

I think it’s more likely corona gets him.

nudemacusers · « **Reply #12 on:** July 31, 2020, 03:10:07 AM »

he's going to start his own 'rebel media' type corporation

Kara · « **Reply #13 on:** July 31, 2020, 03:21:58 AM »

It would be a huge coup if NBC could resign [sic] him to The Apprentice.

Ghoul · « **Reply #14 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:00:28 AM »

please don't say bet, it summons shonda who will drive you off the forum for months.

VomKriege · « **Reply #15 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:04:27 AM »

Quote from: james on July 31, 2020, 02:07:36 AM

But Germany did win

Exactly ! Follow your dreams ! Even from the gutter !

BisMarckie · « **Reply #16 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:20:02 AM »

Gambling isn’t a problem as long as you’re winning

CatsCatsCats · « **Reply #17 on:** July 31, 2020, 08:25:15 AM »

Oh okay, we’re making our wishes bets now?

ToxicAdam · « **Reply #18 on:** July 31, 2020, 08:47:40 AM »

He’s a classic narcissist. He still believes he can win and when he doesn’t he’ll pivot into full blown victim to garner as much sympathy as he can.

I could see a scenario where he bows out during the lame duck months though. December is usually a quiet time in DC.

Himu · « **Reply #19 on:** July 31, 2020, 09:28:27 AM »

the last time i bet someone on this forum they refused to honor it when they decisively lost.

Tasty · « **Reply #20 on:** July 31, 2020, 09:34:50 AM »

Not sure I'd rather have Trump or Pence.

Same situation with Bush/Cheney back in the day.

Trurl · « **Reply #21 on:** July 31, 2020, 10:00:39 AM »

I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.

Human Snorenado · « **Reply #22 on:** July 31, 2020, 10:35:41 AM »

Quote from: Trurl on July 31, 2020, 10:00:39 AM

I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.

Absent some cataclysmic shift or momentous event, I doubt that can happen.

The trick will be having results reported in a timely and decisive manner to remove "doubt" in the process.

I'm heavily skeptical that Biden can win in places like Texas and Georgia but all the places that Trump barely won or lost by like 3-4 points or less are in play, and some others like Iowa and Ohio too. Doing the math on those makes Trump's chances basically nonexistent, unless he deploys his SS DHS troops all over the country to beat the shit out of every black person on election day (which, let's be honest, is a distinct possibility)

If he DOES lose man he's gonna pardon everyone in the last couple weeks. I could also see him resign after having pre-emptively pardoning Pence for Pence to pardon him.

But he'll never serve any time, there's no justice in this world. He'll be around on Twitter and his own show on Sinclair or start his own network.

The only way to ever really be free of Trumpism would be to kill him, his family, and all of his fucking idiot followers, which is like at least 27% of the country. Barring that we could give them all Texas to ruin and build a wall around it. Sorry, Austin. Sacrifices have to be made!

thisismyusername · « **Reply #23 on:** July 31, 2020, 10:52:43 AM »

Quote from: Human Snorenado on July 31, 2020, 10:35:41 AM

The only way to ever really be free of Trumpism would be to kill him, his family, and all of his fucking idiot followers, which is like at least 27% of the country. Barring that we could give them all Texas to ruin and build a wall around it. Sorry, Austin. Sacrifices have to be made!

Austin has EviLore, so nothing of value would be lost.

bork · « **Reply #24 on:** July 31, 2020, 11:05:12 AM »

Quote from: Trurl on July 31, 2020, 10:00:39 AM

I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.

Yeah. Everyone was so sure he wouldn't get elected the first time around.

Tasty · « **Reply #25 on:** July 31, 2020, 11:10:45 AM »

Quote from: bork on July 31, 2020, 11:05:12 AM

Quote from: Trurl on July 31, 2020, 10:00:39 AM
I'm still afraid that he will get reelected one way or another.

Yeah. Everyone was so sure he wouldn't get elected the first time around.

Even Mandark?!

Mandark · « **Reply #26 on:** July 31, 2020, 12:22:39 PM »

I didn't think he'd win the primaries!

I thought his campaign would follow roughly the same arc as Herman Cain's (pizza be upon him).

Nintex · « **Reply #27 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:15:10 PM »

I'm not sure if he will resign but I'm not ruling it out either.
Trump did really want to beat Clinton though, for some reason she really got on his bad side. It is just not the same with Biden.
Now he's still in the same fight with the media and politicians he was in when he strolled down the escalator to announce he was running.
I always assumed that either the media or Trump would grow tired and give up and sort of 'tolerate' the other side but that never happened.

Before he couldn't resign because of the Russia investigation, now he can't get out because of the Pandemic.
I honestly think he doesn't know what he wants. Clearly the man is only happy when he's golfing with a friend or at his clubs during the weekend.
It doesn't look like he would be very happy if he won in November, in fact he might prefer it if Biden takes over and he doesn't have to deal with this shit anymore.

But then again, this is what most thought in 2016. When Clinton would win with 99% certainty and people thought I was stupid for thinking Trump would win.
I still think it will be much closer than the polls say looking at just how viewership of Fox News increases, local races are close and more followers of Q appear.
A freak coalition of Karen's, Q's, Wank Dad followers, weird Elon Musk fans, and Barstool Sports listeners could carry him into office.
This is what the GOP must be contemplating as well, Biden isn't in the best shape either and Trump only has to carry this thing by the smallest of margins.
With Pence you would never get the voters that Trump brought to the GOP. But is getting those voters worth risking everything?

Mandark · « **Reply #28 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:16:00 PM »

shut the fuck up

BIONIC · « **Reply #29 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:22:01 PM »

I’m not reading a word of that, but I’m sure Nintex made great and well-researched points as always.

Nintex · « **Reply #30 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:25:31 PM »

Quote from: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 02:16:00 PM

shut the fuck up

The influence of the media dominated by Zuckerberg, Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan is not to be underestimated.
CNN lost viewers since 2016, Fox News only gained them.

The UK assumed the same with Johnson and Brexit.
The Tories had botched up Brexit so bad (and Johnson was partly to blame for the entire mess to begin with) that he couldn't possibly win the election with a majority.
But he beat Corbyn and Labour in a landslide, flipping seats that hadn't been flipped in decades.

Mandark · « **Reply #31 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:28:06 PM »

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Quote from: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 02:16:00 PM

shut the fuck up

[close]

Nintex · « **Reply #32 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:53:48 PM »

Let's look at YouTube for example.

Joe Biden: A Socially Distanced Conversation: President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden
860k views

Joe Rogan Experience #1516 - Post Malone
5.7 million views

james · « **Reply #33 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:56:04 PM »

Quote from: Cindi Mayweather on July 31, 2020, 09:28:27 AM

the last time i bet someone on this forum they refused to honor it when they decisively lost.

We need a dedicated betting forum to keep tabs

Great Rumbler · « **Reply #34 on:** July 31, 2020, 02:59:33 PM »

Quote from: Nintex on July 31, 2020, 02:15:10 PM

I'm not sure if he will resign but I'm not ruling it out either.
Trump did really want to beat Clinton though, for some reason she really got on his bad side. It is just not the same with Biden.
Now he's still in the same fight with the media and politicians he was in when he strolled down the escalator to announce he was running.
I always assumed that either the media or Trump would grow tired and give up and sort of 'tolerate' the other side but that never happened.

Before he couldn't resign because of the Russia investigation, now he can't get out because of the Pandemic.
I honestly think he doesn't know what he wants. Clearly the man is only happy when he's golfing with a friend or at his clubs during the weekend.
It doesn't look like he would be very happy if he won in November, in fact he might prefer it if Biden takes over and he doesn't have to deal with this shit anymore.

But then again, this is what most thought in 2016. When Clinton would win with 99% certainty and people thought I was stupid for thinking Trump would win.
I still think it will be much closer than the polls say looking at just how viewership of Fox News increases, local races are close and more followers of Q appear.
A freak coalition of Karen's, Q's, Wank Dad followers, weird Elon Musk fans, and Barstool Sports listeners could carry him into office.
This is what the GOP must be contemplating as well, Biden isn't in the best shape either and Trump only has to carry this thing by the smallest of margins.
With Pence you would never get the voters that Trump brought to the GOP. But is getting those voters worth risking everything?

Tripon · « **Reply #35 on:** July 31, 2020, 06:49:16 PM »

Only way Trump resigns if he can get an assurance from Pence to give him a full immunity pardon. But Pence has his own political future to look at, so that's a bit up in the air.

EchoRin · « **Reply #36 on:** July 31, 2020, 06:53:29 PM »

Ugh. The idea of Pence assuming the role of POTUS for even one day makes me want to hurl.

bdoughty · « **Reply #37 on:** July 31, 2020, 06:55:11 PM »

I will bet my existence here that we get four more years of Trump.

Mandark · « **Reply #38 on:** July 31, 2020, 06:58:23 PM »

what sort of odds would you put on that?

Stoney Mason · « **Reply #39 on:** July 31, 2020, 06:58:25 PM »

Quote from: bdoughty on July 31, 2020, 06:55:11 PM

I will bet my existence here that we get four more years of Trump.

With a country full of you, its not out of the question I suppose.

TakingBackSunday · « **Reply #40 on:** July 31, 2020, 06:59:52 PM »

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

bdoughty · « **Reply #41 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:00:30 PM »

Quote from: Stoney Mason on July 31, 2020, 06:58:25 PM

With a country full of you, its not out of the question I suppose.

Not voting for Trump or Biden, sorry.

Human Snorenado · « **Reply #42 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:01:01 PM »

Quote from: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 06:59:52 PM

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Deploying enough DHS goons to beat minority voters to death for voting once voting starts

Stoney Mason · « **Reply #43 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:01:28 PM »

Quote from: bdoughty on July 31, 2020, 07:00:30 PM

Quote from: Stoney Mason on July 31, 2020, 06:58:25 PM
With a country full of you, its not out of the question I suppose.

Not voting for Trump or Biden, sorry.

sure

Human Snorenado · « **Reply #44 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:01:53 PM »

The real bet should be someone wagering nintex's continued existence here on a Trump win

bdoughty · « **Reply #45 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:03:42 PM »

Quote from: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 06:59:52 PM

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

A debate would be a disaster for Biden.

Also that sumg fart sniffing arrogance from Liberals. Of all places fivethirtyeight.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

Stoney Mason · « **Reply #46 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:04:24 PM »

Quote from: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 06:59:52 PM

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Despite whatever the polls say, and despite whatever the current environment appears the last election taught me never to underestimate the dumbness and bigotry of the American people. If Trump loses, then good. We decided not to re-elect the racist in chief we decided to elect 4 years ago. I don't think reason and logic are what people use to vote anyway.

TakingBackSunday · « **Reply #47 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:05:14 PM »

but polling...was right...

Stoney Mason · « **Reply #48 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:10:13 PM »

Quote from: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 07:05:14 PM

but polling...was right...

Honestly for me personally, I'm just here to talk shit so you can mostly ignore me on a serious level. I don't care in a real way. At this point I've reached the Carlin level of disdain where I fully don't care if/when the whole system collapses. I'll always vote, but I no longer carry any expectations. Dumb asses gonna dumb ass. I can't be surprised anymore.

TakingBackSunday · « **Reply #49 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:12:14 PM »

no I agree with you, that was pointed towards bdoughty for trying to slander the polling weights and analysis of 538

Mandark · « **Reply #50 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:12:56 PM »

Quote from: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 06:59:52 PM

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

1) Let's say Biden's ~8% ahead right now.

2) The race "naturally" tightens: all the coronavirus effects are already baked in, it's a very polarized electorate, etc. Brings us down to say ~5% lead.

3) Trump has an electoral college advantage. This might have grown since 2016, since the demographic trends (rural/exurban non-college white voters trending Republican) are especially favorable for the GOP in the midwest. Cuts it down to 1-2% for Biden in the tipping point states.

4) The pandemic makes Democrats much more likely to use mail-in voting than Republicans. Mail-in votes have a higher tendency to get rejected than in-person votes and the GOP is going to be very, very aggressive in challenging them. Also many states aren't set up for mass mail voting, and require votes to be delivered by Election Day, rather than mailed by Election Day, and Trump's been undermining the USPS.

5) Voila.

bdoughty · « **Reply #51 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:22:38 PM »

Quote from: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 07:12:14 PM

no I agree with you, that was pointed towards bdoughty for trying to slander the polling weights and analysis of 538

Slander?

From Nate's own mouth. He admits a normal polling error was all it would take for a Trump win. Sure he gave Trump a small chance in hell to win. He just never expected it to actually happen and spent weeks defending his polling to people mocking him and other polling sources.

Mandark · « **Reply #52 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:27:35 PM »

he gave trump like a 30% chance to win

he was being criticized from the left because they thought he was exaggerating trump's chances: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

TakingBackSunday · « **Reply #53 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:42:00 PM »

Quote from: Mandark on July 31, 2020, 07:12:56 PM

Quote from: TakingBackSunday on July 31, 2020, 06:59:52 PM
can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

1) Let's say Biden's ~8% ahead right now.

2) The race "naturally" tightens: all the coronavirus effects are already baked in, it's a very polarized electorate, etc. Brings us down to say ~5% lead.

3) Trump has an electoral college advantage. This might have grown since 2016, since the demographic trends (rural/exurban non-college white voters trending Republican) are especially favorable for the GOP in the midwest. Cuts it down to 1-2% for Biden in the tipping point states.

4) The pandemic makes Democrats much more likely to use mail-in voting than Republicans. Mail-in votes have a higher tendency to get rejected than in-person votes and the GOP is going to be very, very aggressive in challenging them. Also many states aren't set up for mass mail voting, and require votes to be delivered by Election Day, rather than mailed by Election Day, and Trump's been undermining the USPS.

5) Voila.

Sure this all makes sense to me. But do you actually think all of this is likely to happen, considering Biden's strong advantage is states like Michigan, PA, and Florida?

Mandark · « **Reply #54 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:51:24 PM »

538's average polling margins for Biden vs. Trump:

National: +8.2%

Michigan: +8.1%
Wisconsin: +7.0%
Pennsylvania: +6.6%
Florida: +5.9%

Right now PA's the tipping point state and is polling worse for Biden than the national average by a point and a half. Several things have to break Trump's way for him to win and I don't think it's likely but it's also not impossible.

brawndolicious · « **Reply #55 on:** July 31, 2020, 07:56:59 PM »

If he didn't quit in October 2016 then he's probably not going to quit now. Unless he's actually worried about getting prosecuted which wasn't an issue for him 4 years ago.

Quote from: Tasty Meat on July 31, 2020, 09:34:50 AM

Not sure I'd rather have Trump or Pence.

Same situation with Bush/Cheney back in the day.

A depressed, lame-duck Pence versus a fully delusional Trump?? Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy. But that takes time and the term is almost over, while Trump does plenty of damage just using Twitter and executive orders. Like if he loses in November, I would actually be afraid of him doing something insane like a military strike or something.

Tasty · « **Reply #56 on:** July 31, 2020, 08:05:11 PM »

Quote

Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy.

Hence my argument.

A lot of Trump's worst stuff has been rolled back. His most dangerous aspect is his base, who are galvanized the further he stays in office. SCOTUS works. Congress failing to get anything passed is... more or less how it should work considering the big picture. Trump had the worst war hawk in living memory yelling in his ear to bomb more of the middle east, and he still basically refused.

Pence is Cheney.

Quote from: EchoRin on July 31, 2020, 06:53:29 PM

Ugh. The idea of Pence assuming the role of POTUS for even one day makes me want to hurl.

Human Snorenado · « **Reply #57 on:** July 31, 2020, 08:19:30 PM »

Personally fwiw I think that there will be some natural tightening to happen but it's like, 1-2 points worth and is mostly people that aren't really "undecided" finally deciding.

I think the following things will be true:

1. Trump's numbers have a chance of improving to close to 2016 levels if the pandemic were brought under control.

2. The pandemic will not be brought under control.

3. A debate is not really going to help Trump unless Biden physically dies or has a seizure during it. Biden has seemed "senior-y" in some appearances lately but of the two Trump has been acting far more senile. A side by side comparison will not be good for Trump.

4. Trump could marginally improve his numbers by shutting the fuck up and being a semi-normal human being.

5. Trump is incapable of that. I mean fuck, he's incapable of NOT doubling down on supporting the demon sperm doctor.

Trump will lose by a slightly worse margin than McCain lost to Obama in 2008, and the GOP will lose a net of 6 Senate seats. That's my official prediction 95 days out. YOU'RE WELCOME.

(I'm sure bdoughty has a different take but let's be honest- he believes in GOP economic policies, so)

bdoughty · « **Reply #58 on:** July 31, 2020, 08:35:59 PM »

Quote from: Human Snorenado on July 31, 2020, 08:19:30 PM

(I'm sure bdoughty has a different take but let's be honest- he believes in GOP economic policies, so)

Tripon · « **Reply #59 on:** July 31, 2020, 08:37:46 PM »

I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.

News:

Author Topic: My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come (Read 7810 times)