Don't call it a comeback, they've been here for years: Al Qaida as big as ever

[TVC15]

Oops, War on Terror?  More like War on SUCCESS!

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8QALM9G2&show_article=1

WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded al-Qaida has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned.
The conclusion suggests that the group that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to rebuild despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.

Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack.

A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal that will be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.

The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.

Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West." The document pays special heed to the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.

Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

The group also has created "the most robust training program since with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.

At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.

"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."

The threat assessment comes as the National Intelligence Council is preparing a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.

Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would be ready for distribution this summer.

Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al- Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.

Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer timeframe to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.

The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.

"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."

Several European countries—among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands—are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.

This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.

The Bush administration has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.

"The number one enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida. Al-Qaida continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday.

The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.

The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.

The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.

It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.

"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.

The counterterror official said the report does not focus on Osama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in al-Qaida. Officials say the network has become more like a "family-oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.

Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.

Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area, despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.

"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to al-Qaida," Fingar said.

So basically, support for the war in Iraq is falling apart, so the cabinet had a report cooked up that basically says we have to kill even harder in the middle east.  In addition, the gubment now has an excuse to sodomize all europeans that try to enter the country.

[Tauntaun]

remember, we're fighting over there, so they won't attack over her....oh, nevermind

spoiler (click to show/hide)

impeach bush/cheney 

[close]

[Mandark]

Then there's the whole issue of the AQ name getting used by groups that don't have very strong ties to AQ proper.

It's kind of faddish for groups that never had anyone trained in Pakistan/Afghanistan to take the AQ name, because it's got built in notoriety.  AQ likes it because they get to take credit for more stuff, and the US government likes it because it makes it easier to sell all these groups as part of The Enemy.

The NY Times ombudsman had a piece on the paper's (and the administration's) focus on AQ, to the exclusion of other militant groups.  Worth a read.



Honestly, though?  Even if there's a rebuilt training base in the tribal regions, the odds are waaaay against a terrorist attack with nearly as many civilian casualties as 9/11.  Since that happened, they're just not going to be able to hijack a jet and run it into a building.

They got one over on us, but it's the sort of trick you can only do once.

[TVC15]

As I said, I think this report is totally cooked to get the cabinet the support they want:

1) Tighter border control.  The sections on Europe being the DANGER ZONE.  I am sure any new border restrictions will be vaguely written so they can be applied to mupepbacks, too.
2) Let's get it on with the killin' in Iraq.  We have to stay in Iraq because AL QAIDA is there.  Even though they weren't there when we first got there.

[Mupepe]

Let's turn the whole middle east into glass

/foc

[Trent Dole]

Let's turn the whole middle east into glass

/foc

This really doesn't seem like such a bad idea right about now.

[FlameOfCallandor]

I wouldnt be agains that idea.

[MrAngryFace]

I dunno, this i has been going on forever. I dunno why we thought we could stop it.

Or why FoC gets to talk to people.

[Mandark]

I don't think it's been going on that long, but yeah, it's not the sort of thing you can bomb away.