When Fanboys Become Analysts

[MrAngryFace]

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/820/820687p1.html

September 18, 2007 - According to a series of recent reports by the research group DFC Intelligence, the game industry is poised to see enormous overall growth in 2009, just in time for the Xbox 360 to slip to a distant third place in the console race.

DFC estimates that the videogame market will swell to $47 billion by 2009, a 42 percent increase over the $33 billion generated by the industry in 2006. That forecast includes revenue from videogame hardware and software, dedicated portable system hardware and software (i.e. the DS and PSP - not mobile phones), PC games, and online PC and console games.

But the Xbox 360's selling power could be on the wane, according to DFC's research. The company has raised its forecast for the Nintendo Wii and PlayStation 3 and lowered its forecast for Microsoft's console, predicting that the Wii will stay on top at least through 2008 and that the PS3 will move into overdrive in 2009.

"The Xbox 360 will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," said DFC analyst David Cole. "We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue."

Using three separate market forecasting models, DFC estimates that combined cumulative worldwide sales for the three console systems will reach between 180 million to 210 million units by 2012.

But home consoles won't be the only winners, according to DFC. The PC market, spurred by the success of online games and digital distribution, stands to grow to $13 billion by 2012, the research indicates. Previous DFC estimates put the online PC game market at about $4.5 billion in 2006.

Handheld systems and software are also strong performers and Cole predicts that "the Nintendo DS could eventually become the best-selling game system ever in five years."

I can imagine the meeting:

"So yeah, I think Sony will have a lot of games by 2012."

"why do you say that"

"Well theyve had a lot of games in the past"

"That makes sense, can you guess a figure?"

"Not really, but the word 'Overdrive' comes to mind"

*raises eyebrow*

[Ichirou]

What is this...DFC  Intelligence of which they speak?

[Kyle]

wtf lol

[Yeti]

[The Sceneman]

"The Xbox 360 will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third"

lol wtf

[Ichirou]

Well, in all fairness, the Wii's lineup looks pretty bleak outside of Nintendo's first party offerings and a few rarities (NiGHTS, Soul Calibur Legends).  I wouldn't at all be surprised if it ends up selling the most hardware, yet not really selling that much software aside from one or two big titles a year...thus technically slipping to second place.

[Kyle]

the Gaf branch is awesome :

Wii - great sales start
X360 - great sales start
PS3 - unmitigated disaster

Obvious future conclusion :
Wii - second, loss of steam, no other games
X360 - distant third, no games, loss of steam
PS3 - first, massive number of AAA games, lead platform for all developers, all games moved to PS3, water into wine, blowjob dispenser. $299 instawin.

approved 

[MCD]

dcharlie 

[bork]

the Gaf branch is awesome :

Wii - great sales start
X360 - great sales start
PS3 - unmitigated disaster

Obvious future conclusion :
Wii - second, loss of steam, no other games
X360 - distant third, no games, loss of steam
PS3 - first, massive number of AAA games, lead platform for all developers, all games moved to PS3, water into wine, blowjob dispenser. $299 instawin.

This has been so obvious from the beginning.  All the signs are there...

BTW DC, I believe you were referred to as a "crazy ex-pat who thought Space Invaders DS was game of show" by Shane in the last 1up podcast. 

[etiolate]

haha I thought Shane might be talking about sp0rks

[bork]

Yeah DC, that's the reason I don't ever go to game shows anymore.  That and the massive crowd and lines.  I already know I'm going to like MGS4 without having played it-- the game play, at least.  And you can't tell if you're going to love or hate the story based on a demo.

I'd go to look for new or obscure stuff too.  That's far more interesting...I wouldn't even know about Space Invaders if not for you (and Groo too, right?)

haha I thought Shane might be talking about sp0rks

Maybe...I didn't know sp0rsk gave him that "Mangod" tag.  I don't know sp0rsk, so I don't know who he rolls with and all that.  DCharlie was the one who came to mind when I heard that podcast.

[Gay Boy]

I honestly don't get why the "WARS" are so hotly contested this time on boards. It's fairly obvious to anyone it will end up being:

1. Wii
2. 360
3. PS3

306 is not going to fall to third.    360 is doing a very solid second place with GREAT software sales. There is nothing in the future that can save PS3 at this point. MGS4 and FFXIII are way to hardcore to "save" a system. As for Wii, it's first place selling over 400k in the DEAD months of summer in USA. It's silly to even discuss it falling at this point.

[demi]

Robby said Space Invaders was really great too, got me interested (he has the voice of a seraph though, he is above all :wub)

[Phoenix Dark]

The 360 is poised to become the defacto choice of hardcore gamers this generation, starting tomorrow. While the Wii will definitely dominate hardware sales due to the hype and grandparent demographic, the 360 will remain the preferred console for developers due to the amazing software sales. Wii fans continue to set the bar low on the console's software sales in order to avoid the embarrassment.

Then there's the PS3. I love how Sony fans continue moving the bar for failure further down the road - eventually the car is gonna pass it, and it'll be undeniable. The first road mark was VF5, and now MGS4 is on the way. I expect the console to stay in last place here in the US; while Sony fans will say "bubububu price cut" they fail to realize the 360's price will drop faster.

360 is the future of gaming

[AdmiralViscen]

Hasn't PS3 sold more in its first X months than 360 did in the same amount of time, worldwide? I think it has a shot at edging out 360, but that's going to depend on how the next 6-12 months go for both consoles.

[Oblivion]

Hasn't PS3 sold more in its first X months than 360 did in the same amount of time, worldwide?

EGM mentioned that a little while back, but Sony also happened to do a worldwide launch. (actually, did MS do a WW launch too? I forget)

[Van Cruncheon]

sony's sales are very, very, VERY frontloaded. also, the first 6 months of the 360 launch were horribly supply constrained.

[brawndolicious]

EGM mentioned that a little while back, but Sony also happened to do a worldwide launch. (actually, did MS do a WW launch too? I forget)

yeah but they didn't originally plan to so like half the people in the U.S. that pre-ordered got their pre-orders given to gamers in other countries plus there was a huge supply issue for months after launch.

[Phoenix Dark]

sony's sales are very, very, VERY frontloaded. also, the first 6 months of the 360 launch were horribly supply constrained.

qft

It's criminally underperforming in the US

[Eduardo24]

Saying that MGS4 or FF13 will save the PS3 is as stupid as when Nintendo fanboys were saying that Oot was going bring victory to the N64.

[Trent Dole]