This was written this morning, before the voting lolz
DES MOINES, Iowa — Are there really three tickets out of Iowa?
Will the media really have the time, space or inclination to pay attention to anyone who doesn’t win or come in second here Thursday night?
Candidates like to talk about how winning “gold, silver or bronze” or “first class, business or coach” is enough. But in Iowa, a third-place finish has almost always been a one-way ticket to Palookaville.
You can hate the idea of one small state being able to dash presidential dreams, but that is usually the case here. (In 1988 there was an exception: Both Democrat Mike Dukakis and Republican George H.W. Bush came in third in Iowa but went on to win their party’s nomination.)
Even second place sometimes is not good enough in Iowa. Ask John Edwards. He came in second here in 2004 and expected that “bounce” to help him win in New Hampshire. But it didn’t.
Why? The media had a better story. They had Howard Dean’s scream.
As Edwards’ then-campaign manager Nick Baldick put it: “Instead of headlines that said, ‘Kerry Wins, Edwards a Surprising Second’ it was all about [John] Kerry winning and the Dean speech. We were the seventh paragraph. That did not give us a New Hampshire bounce.”
And Edwards might face the same problem this time. If he comes in second and Barack Obama comes in first, the headline could be: “Obama Wins, Hillary Third.”
Top-tier candidates probably will not drop out if they don’t do well in Iowa. The New Hampshire primary is just five days later, and most of the money for that is already spent. Also there are back-to-back Republican and Democratic debates on Saturday night, which provides free TV time.
But certain candidates might find themselves otherwise starved for oxygen in New Hampshire. Media resources are being stretched thin right now and many news outlets are looking forward to a smaller field to cover.
The trick for candidates is to exceed media expectations. If you can do better than expected, you might be able to earn a continuing look — even if it is just a glance — from the press.
Each party has a different set of expectations this time.
Republican John McCain has been trying to thread the needle in Iowa, spending enough time to snatch third place without spending enough time to make it look as if he were really trying to win.
And McCain actually could convert a bronze in Iowa into gold in New Hampshire.
Greg Mueller, who has worked in a number of Republican presidential campaigns, but is unaligned now, says there are others who may beat expectations.
“If Fred Thompson comes in third in Iowa, he gets a ticket to New Hampshire,” Mueller said. “And Ron Paul, with that energy and passion, is a wild card.”
On the Democratic side, the field may be cut down immediately.
“There aren’t three tickets out of Iowa for Democrats,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster and strategist who worked for Kerry in 2004 and is unaligned now. “If Hillary Clinton wins, I think the race is over.”
But what if she doesn’t win?
“If Barack Obama wins and Hillary Clinton is second or third, she could still win the nomination, but it would be a tough fight for her,” he said. “And Edwards has to win Iowa. If he comes in third in Iowa — or even second — he is dead.”
Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman, who isn’t backing any candidate, put it this way: “What is unique about this cycle is that each candidate has a different strategy to obtain the nomination. But exceeding media expectations is part of every strategy."
http://www.politico.com/rogersimon/Pretty spot on. The media attention is going to be key given the small amount of time left until the NH primary. Obama is going to get much of that attention, and you can expect a lot of stories straight out of his autobiography to be all over the news, plus more coverage of his policies. The second (or first?) story is going to be
what happened to Hillary. For months she was the undisputed front runner, an aura of inevitability over her head. Now all that is gone; and if she attacks Obama, or better yet if Bill attacks Obama, I'd expect the media to rush to his aid with "as Hillary Clinton's campaign begins to unravel..." story headings.
So where does Edwards fit in? His supporters seem far more inclined to be in Obama's camp than Hillary's, and I could see him losing many points to Obama in NH. Most likely he's going to come in third there, giving the media the green light to frame the rest of the primary season as a two person race.
