Current console lifespan predictions

[abrader]

So - now that we are well into the gen - when will these decks start to die off and be replaced by NEXT GEN?

Also what will NEXT GEN bring in terms of hardware and performance/output/interfaces?

I say the Wii has a LONG LONG life ahead of it as a family appliance. I think because its in its own niche that it could last all of this gen and and next gen possibly still selling like the PS2 does now. The rest of regular gaming can still go on and progress. At this point I cant even imagine what Nintendo would do with a performance machine. They seem to not be the best at forward thinking (a handheld that only supports WEP and cant take a firmware upgrade....) on the hardware designs.

I think MSFT will be the first to slip into a new deck. I think they differentiate themselves by launching new hardware sooner. In this process however their support for things like BC fall to the bottom of the priority list. Their machine feels less like a collectors console and more like a "set-top cable box" - you have to have one to be in on the Live! stuff for when friends want to play and people fell that it is the best console to play the majority of 3rd party games on. I expect their new system sooner, with the same kind of X360 delivery - new proprietary devices, not good focus on BC and a 0.5 generation graphic leap over the PS3 which will appeal to all of the visual whores and AV junkies. XBOX 360's have rental disks in their drives often.

I think the PS3 will try to follow in the path of the PS2. We wont see PS4 for a long long long long long time.

Whats yer take?

[tiesto]

Nintendo will ride the Wii out for as long as possible, will keep stuff ongoing with different hardware colors, and more hardware SKU's, like one that provides 720p/1080p/HDMI output, another one with more internal storage space, etc.  I wouldn't expect a new Nintendo system for a while, and even then, I can't begin to imagine what it would be like... if it's gonna be an incremental advancement to the Wii's control tech, or something entirely different.

Sony is gonna try and recoup their PS3 losses as much as possible, and hold out their system till as long as possible. And even then, I expect its followup will use Blu-Ray and Cell as well, being backwards compatible with the PS3. The R&D cost will be much lower (by this time, Cell manufacturing will have hit its stride and Blu-Ray's costs will have come way down) but the system will still be pretty graphically capable, and waggle will be a lock for the new system.

I'd say MS is gonna be the first to the market, once again, with a next-next-gen system. Especially if the PS3 secures a worldwide lead over the 360. The system will probably feature Blu-Ray and an obvious generational leap over its predecessor, and even more focus on Live/downloadable gaming. Hopefully, this time they won't repeat their past mistakes and kill off support for their previous system completely.

I'm more so interested in what Nintendo is planning to do with the followup to the most successful game platform of all time, the DS.

[WrikaWrek]

I hope we get a new gen in 2011. 3 Years more of this gen is quite enough for me.

[Himu]

This gen better last 4-5 more years.

[siamesedreamer]

It'll be a while.

MS is finally making money. Sony has the Blu-Ray push. And Nintendo is flat-out owning.

Prolly fall 2011 at the earliest...2012 most likely though.

[CurseoftheGods]

My predictions:

Xbox 720: 2010
Wii: 2010
Playstation 4: 2011

[Third]

Current gen started in 2005.
Next-gen should start in 2011/2012.

Six year cycle is perfect imo. Longer is welcome. But not shorter.

[AdmiralViscen]

I too wish that MS had Sony's commitment to BC.

[Grecco]

2011 at the earlyest.

Oh and this 10 year PS3 life cycle is a load of hog was. They will be the first on the market this time ala Ps2.

[AdmiralViscen]

I don't think anybody is letting anybody be first this time, but if anyone's first it's MS. 2010/2011

[Bildi]

Since their strategies aren't exactly "outside the box", I think it's a pretty fair bet that MS will be first again.

[brawndolicious]

I don't think that nintendo will try to match the competition's processing power or multimedia capabilities, but they'll probably need an HD console by 2010.  They're probably designing it right now.  The new xbox and PS will come probably a couple years later and from then on, nintendo will release new consoles on different years than the other two and at a significantly lower price in order to keep all the casual gamers only focused on nintendo.  I really hope they reveal something new that's not shit at E3 though.  just something to stop the wagglocalypse of casual games.

[Oblivion]

I'm sure Nintendo will start earlier than people may think. Dunno about MS, could go either way I suppose.

PS4 should show up late 2016. PS3 IS on a 10 year plan afterall.

[Beezy]

I predict that we won't get any new consoles before 2011.

[Hollywood]

Hell, the PS2 is still going and selling. It's going to last until 2010, proving Sony's claims of a 10 year lifespam. They still can drop the fucker to $100 and release it in new colors if they wanna keep milking that dog for all its worth.

[abrader]

Hell, the PS2 is still going and selling. It's going to last until 2010, proving Sony's claims of a 10 year lifespam. They still can drop the fucker to $100 and release it in new colors if they wanna keep milking that dog for all its worth.

Exactly why I think the Wii can live thru the next 2 XBOXES

[drew]

new xbox winter 2010.  mark it.

[Beezy]

new xbox winter 2010.  mark it.

no

[abrader]

I think it could be announced/shown by then.

[Beezy]

Yeah, but there's no reason to release it that early. It's doing much better than the Xbox.

[Bildi]

I agree it's quite possible we'll at least see news on the next Xbox by then.

[Van Cruncheon]

well, the ps3's lifespan is already over

[Van Cruncheon]

it already has budget hardware and budget ports; why not go for the budget market i ask

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

In order of release:

PlayStation 4 - After the failed Year of the PS3, Sony decides to design the PS4 that is mostly inspired with the Wii but has multimedia functions.  It will have stuff like 1080p and Bluray but gone are the days of braggadocio where Saddam could use a PS2 to unleash biological weapons and 100 teraflops or whatever the fuck bullshit stat they threw out.  The system will mostly be a casual affair and Sony will try to hype it as such.  Sony will no longer try to get the cool image but the family friendly image, hoping to steal the next gen market out from under Nintendo.  Expected Release Date (JPN): Spring 2011

Xbox 1080 - Microsoft, after getting a decent performance from the 360, continues the same strategy with the 1080.  Trying to be a multimedia set top box like the 360, Microsoft will change very little.  The 1080 will be like the 360 but with more space, more Live features, more power.  Which isn't necessarily a bad thing.  Expected Release Date (US): October 2011

Wii 2/Game Cube 3 - Nintendo, succeeding in this generation, phones in a lazy effort.  Hampering games further in favor of non games, the controller is to be even further simplified, maybe having one or two buttons per controller maximum.  Yet there will be a touch pad like thing and more waggle features.  Expected Release Date (US/JPN): Fall 2012

[Human Snorenado]

Everything is going to depend on what Sony decides to do and how public they are about doing it.  Obviously they realized they fucked up a pretty good thing I'm guessing, and realize that they need to be first out to the market with a reasonable price point this time.  Likewise, MS ALSO realizes that's what Sony needs to do, so I bet they cockblock them.  This could unfortunately see a new gen console released in 2010 when I think 2011 would be better for all involved.  Whenever they launch, MS and Sony will launch within months of each other.

Nintendo will just keep making money off of the Wii, they're out of the actual videogame industry barring handhelds.

[Smooth Groove]

There are huge differences beween the PS2 and PS3.  The PS2 lasted a long while because it had great games.

OTOH, the PS3 is a movie player with a shit library because Sony has already invested too much in it. 

[pilonv1]

well, the ps3's lifespan is already over

hence why i think they'll be eager to move the PS3 into the "casual/Wiimote/cheap BR player" and get the drop on the X720.

Heres a thought about PSP 2 - Making it the platform to combat Wii. Basically a portable PS2+ that you can use as a handheld. They're already doing video out on PSP. There must be a way to make a base station like thing which has your HDMI/Optical out/Network port/BluRay drive/waggle sensor, then have your portable machine that "docks" in it that you can take elsewhere.

Wii has shown you don't need technical power, so an enchaned PS2 is all you need. There's probably some sort of issue that prevents it that I'm not thinking of.

[Van Cruncheon]

that's actually a cool idea -- put a 640x480 screen on it, give it decent graphics capabilities, and then have a docking station that lets you use real controllers and a TV. i'd buy it!

[MCD]

that's actually a cool idea -- put a 640x480 screen on it, give it decent graphics capabilities, and then have a docking station that lets you use real controllers and a TV. i'd buy it!

what if it's waggle only?

[Van Cruncheon]

controls would hafta be the same on the handheld and the docked version -- meaning the console controllers would need to be functionally identical to the undocked handheld, which would rule out fucking waggle

[MCD]

true.

and about this "docking station", it should be the PS4 or PS3.

[pilonv1]

it's really perfect. you get the best of PS2/PSP (awesome library), the best of Wii (...) and you don't have the worst of PS3 (shitty software and stupid price). Throw in some new Sony first party titles and it's a winner. It's really just a useful version of remote play.

controls would hafta be the same on the handheld and the docked version -- meaning the console controllers would need to be functionally identical to the undocked handheld, which would rule out fucking waggle

Exactly, waggle is optional. Makes sense to me.

[Crushed]

that's actually a cool idea -- put a 640x480 screen on it, give it decent graphics capabilities, and then have a docking station that lets you use real controllers and a TV. i'd buy it!

Wow a 640x480 PS2 quality console I can play on a TV with DualShock controls, wowowow I can't wait to buy it it sounds nothing like an actual PS2.

[Crushed]

controls would hafta be the same on the handheld and the docked version -- meaning the console controllers would need to be functionally identical to the undocked handheld, which would rule out fucking waggle

It could be tilt-sensitive, like the iPod Touch/iPhone. Then what, smart guy?

[Hollywood]

that's actually a cool idea -- put a 640x480 screen on it, give it decent graphics capabilities, and then have a docking station that lets you use real controllers and a TV. i'd buy it!

Let me introduce you to ...

Playstation 2.

[pilonv1]

needs better than 640x480 screen though. must be widescreen

[MCD]

needs better than 640x480 screen though. must be widescreen

960x544

double the resolution of the psp.

[Smooth Groove]

"0.5 generation graphic leap over the PS3"?  Must be a typo.  360 already is that much ahead. 

[abrader]

"0.5 generation graphic leap over the PS3"?  Must be a typo.  360 already is that much ahead. 

HO HO HO HO HO

[Human Snorenado]

that's actually a cool idea -- put a 640x480 screen on it, give it decent graphics capabilities, and then have a docking station that lets you use real controllers and a TV. i'd buy it!

Let me introduce you to ...

Playstation 2.

He means a portable version.

But yeah ps2 was fucking awesome.   It's like the Wii if the Wii wasn't a piece of shit with no games.

In the Wii's defense, it has tons of non-gaming shovelware in place of games.  Also Wii Fit.

Srsly tho, is there anything on that console worth playing other than Fire Emblem?  Answer:  no.

[MCD]

mari-

yup, only fire emblem, disgusting console.