Depressingly Predictable Awfulness in Iraq: Part 17,483 in an ongoing series.
Well things have gotten better since the surge and honestly, I can't figure out why people keep arguing and bickering about that.
THIS is why I'm arguing and why it's important.
The rationale behind the surge was that the security from the increased troop levels would provide "breathing room" or "political space" for a peaceful reconciliation between the Iraqi factions. The US hoped that Iraqi leaders just needed a more stable environment to get things done.
That hasn't happened. Maliki and the UIA have decided to consolidate their power through non-democratic and often violent means. They're now refusing any accommodation for the Sunni Awakening councils and militias, whose creations were organized and funded by the US.
It's frustrating because it was easy to see coming. You can't create an independently armed fiefdom for an ethnic minority and expect the central government not to be threatened and you can't expect the central government to do what you want when you'll give it the same financial and military support no matter what.
What was the point of the US staying the last year and a half? The strongest faction with the deepest ties to Iran is breaking the rules to seize power. That couldn't happen without the miracle of American oversight?
If we're gonna bring up Obama then let's admit how prescient he was. A year ago he was saying that the administration wasn't applying enough pressure to Iraqi leaders to accomplish the goals of the surge but that a withdrawal deadline could do that. I'm not sure if a deadline would have forced Maliki to behave differently but we already have tons of evidence that the current strategy just allowed him to stick with a hardline position.
