Stock Market under 10,000

[Tauntaun]

8,589.70   Down 668.40 (7.22%)

The Experiment, I have no idea where the bottom is, but the Dow is down 5500 from its high of a year ago. At this point, who cares about 300 points.

The bottom can't be too far down.  The biggest gains from the past decade have been from the credit default swaps, which started to be used in 1997, around the same time the Dow began exploding.  My guess from reading is that the Dow will return to pre-CDS levels, which is 7000-8000.

I remember hearing years ago that this would eventually happen, that the market couldn't sustain that high of a number. 

[Madrun Badrun]

The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that Canada will lead the G7 in economic growth next year and avoid a recession. Shortly after that, the World Economic Forum, a Geneva-based independent think-tank, released a report saying Canada has the world's soundest banking system. Canada's biggest trading partner, the United States, ranked 40th in the world for the soundest of its financial system, behind countries like the Barbados and Namibia.

Malek, Boogie, Muck and I

[Van Cruncheon]

i'm pretty pessimistic, but the experiment is largely right -- it should restablilize around 7000. the only big issue is a potential selling tsunami, where idiots with large, heavily diversified portfolios start panicking and demanding sales and cashouts, which will cause currently stable companies with typically strong holdings to plummet, and then we're ALL fuck'd (and not in a loving, anus-massaging tauntaun-kinda way).

[Human Snorenado]

Arvie, I wouldn't get too excited if I were you.  Remember that we Americans have way, way more guns than you pussy ass Canadians.  If necessary we'll just kill your country and wear it's skin.

[Van Cruncheon]

this REALLY is a good buy opportunity, btw. i am thinking about taking $10K and dumping it in bank of america and a few of the floatier nasdaq offerings. i'm guaranteed double or fail, and there's good chance of much, much bigger gains.

[Flannel Boy]

If only I had money to invest.

[CajoleJuice]

If only I had money to invent.

lol

[Flannel Boy]

Son of a bitch.

[Madrun Badrun]

Arvie, I wouldn't get too excited if I were you.  Remember that we Americans have way, way more guns than you pussy ass Canadians.  If necessary we'll just kill your country and wear it's skin.

You filthy Americans probably couldn't even find the border.  I mean even a smart guy like drinky couldn't even catch the ferry on time.   

[Van Cruncheon]

hey, even $500 could turn into a couple thousand in a year or two. some of these big institutions with strong capital are at fucking firesale prices.

[Madrun Badrun]

Son of a bitch.

FEEL MY PAIN BITCH!  FEEL IT!

[Tauntaun]

Son of a bitch.

It's alright boo, I feel ya. 

[Madrun Badrun]

Tauntaun feels my pain by association! 

[Tauntaun]

Either that or

[Flannel Boy]

Like America, Drinky, I am in debt at the moment, and have no money to invest.

By the way, the US federal debt is now over $10 trillion.


Someone needs to buy Iceland. Celtic-Viking women. 

[Madrun Badrun]

Like America, Drinky, I am in debt at the moment, and have no money to invest.

By the way, the US federal debt is now over $10 trillion.

How much of this goes to communists again? 

[Human Snorenado]

hey, even $500 could turn into a couple thousand in a year or two. some of these big institutions with strong capital are at fucking firesale prices.

My dad called me and told me that he had just put about $25k into BoA and Goldman Sachs.  He figured that if it was good enough for Warren Buffett, it was good enough for him.  I'm pondering taking about 5k out of savings and sinking it into BoA myself.  I mean I've got around 28k just sitting in the bank doing nothing in a savings account.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

any suggestions on what to invest in?

also I missed the Colbert Report hopping on the Campbell's soup train:

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/186527/october-01-2008/campbell-s-soup-stock

[MrAngryFace]

bwahahahhahaha

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/its-a-great-time-to-be-afraid.aspx

I thought I was reading an onion article after reading the headline and seeing the guys headshot.

[Van Cruncheon]

so basically the bailout could stymie a bear market rally, especially in bank investments, due to its shitty implementation. wow, what a gamble.

[patrickula]

Investing in some of these bargain basement stocks is looking pretty appealing... 
Too bad the bailout is so garbage.

[drozmight]

NO! Sell everything!

[Rman]

It's under 9000 now.   :'( :'( :'(

[Fresh Prince]

Investing in some of these bargain basement stocks is looking pretty appealing... 
Too bad the bailout is so garbage.

Like some one said before this isn't the bottom. Though I'm just waiting with money in my hand.

[Flannel Boy]

No matter what the topic, Evilbore can't help talking about bottoms.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

No matter what the topic, Evilbore can't help talking about bottoms.

yes, and like other independently wealthy Evilboreans, I'm waiting until we hit that bottom, then going in with everything I've got

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I'm going to put in a few hundred next Monday with a couple thousand until the drops are no longer as dramatic as they are now.

Like Prole says, it should stabilize around 7000.  If not, we're all fucked anyway.

[Fresh Prince]

This is like a once in a life time event. Must do the good capitalist thing and pillage the market 

[Howard Alan Treesong]

but what are the appropriate stocks to pillage??

[Fresh Prince]

Apparently strong banks, retail stores, other 'blue chips' but basically anything with long term growth. It's  a pretty loose definition though.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

I had a pretty decent 1-year time locked CD open up 2 days ago

I want to put that shit in the stock-ass market

[Cormacaroni]

but what are the appropriate stocks to pillage??

It may be easier emotionally and intellectually for you to simply short tanking stocks of companies you despise than look for future risers. If you really don't think we've hit bottom yet, that is.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

but what are the appropriate stocks to pillage??

It may be easier emotionally and intellectually for you to simply short tanking stocks of companies you despise than look for future risers. If you really don't think we've hit bottom yet, that is.

"short"? you mean, I can "invest" in stocks doing poorly? wow, Wall Street really is like a casino!

if a stock is doing really well can I split it into two hands??

[Rman]

If only Alan Greenspan hadn't read so much Ayn Rand as a wee lad.

[Bocsius]

Asia is tanking right now. Nikkei (Japan) is down almost 11%, Hang Seng (Hong Kong) is down almost 8.

[Fresh Prince]

shit, my 401k has lost about $6,500 in the last 2 weeks.  About 40% altogether in the last year. 
If I weren't paying off so much on my student loans, I'd be doubling my 10% contribution. 

I'm just gonna be a filthy poor forever.

The truth is you're not retiring now or within 5 years so in fact on average you should have a net positive effect by the time you retire. Of course it may be bad luck things being cyclical by the time you retire there might be another downturn. I'm not familiar with 401k but there must be options to further diversify your fund in some non share funds. 

From a noob's perspective I think we'll have to wait till next year for the real bottom to hit.

[Cormacaroni]

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/10/hitchens200810?currentPage=1

Hitchens swings for the fences as usual!

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

My Dad has lost $80,000 so far, almost all of it in the past month.

He's now pushed back retirement by three years.

[Flannel Boy]

My Dad has lost $80,000 so far, almost all of it in the past month.

He's now pushed back retirement by three years.

George W. Bush: keeping Americans productive.

[Madrun Badrun]

My Dad has lost $80,000 so far, almost all of it in the past month.

He's now pushed back retirement by three years.

That's horrible.   

[siamesedreamer]

Y'all might want to brace yourselves for tomorrow.

There's significant worry that a $400B Lehman Brothers CDS settlement could completely fubar the market.

Oh and Nikkei is down ~11% right now...

[Howard Alan Treesong]

WHY WON'T THE INVISIBLE HAND OF THE FREE MARKET STOP HITTING ME

[CajoleJuice]

My Dad has lost $80,000 so far, almost all of it in the past month.

He's now pushed back retirement by three years.

Pretty sure my dad has lost a similar amount by now.

[siamesedreamer]

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/lehman-cds-unwi.html#more

[Flannel Boy]

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/10/hitchens200810?currentPage=1

Hitchens swings for the fences as usual!

That was a good article except for the last paragraph, which Hitchens, not very subtlety, uses to champion his narrow pro-war neo-conservatism.  

[Cormacaroni]

Hitchens is not famed for his subtlety, no.

[Van Cruncheon]

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/603-What-The-Media-Didnt-Cover.html

good article, and maybe it's NOT such a good idea to buy

edit: and then denninger goes on to get all eschatological. sigh

[huckleberry]

That was actually a good article the Hitchens wrote. 
He has had very few of those in the past 8 years.

[Fresh Prince]

I saw something on the news basically a graph detailing how much stock market was paying compared to it's 'book value' over the past century. On average it seemed that the stock market was paying 20% to even 50% more than the book worth but over this decade that number jumped to something shocking like 500% over so even though shares are on a discount historically they are still overvalued.

Though I wish I could find it since I'm not entirely sure of the details, numbers etc.

[The Fake Shemp]

Yeah, we've got a bit to go before we hit the bottom, so I wouldn't put any money into the stock market until then.  It could be a really, really ugly fourth quarter that could see supposedly stable financial institutions and companies go belly up, as well.  I will probably invest in the market, but not until some next year, when the market stabilizes and we get a clear picture of what companies will survive past the holidays.

[Fresh Prince]

According to some site it's more like stocks will have to fall by 60% though who knows if this is right as well.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I suppose it is best that I hold off and focus on getting all my debts paid as quickly as possible.

I wonder how the holidays are going to be this year.  Might be the first "family oriented" Christmas in decades.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

[Van Cruncheon]

oh my, credit default swaps worth $60T -- http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2008/10/the-rationality.html

it's all over for libertopia, randroid tears leveraged as new commodities market

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

CDS are truly evil.

Funny to know that it all started from one 25 year old MIT graduate.

[drozmight]

I'm gonna try and ride this out in university...

what are we looking at here, three years?

[Van Cruncheon]

I'm gonna try and ride this out in university...

what are we looking at here, three years?

six months to ten years, depending on how these cds "unwinding" auctions pan out over tomorrow and the next week -- specifically the lehman bros and wamu auctions.

[drozmight]

man I might have to go all the way up to Doctorate level after all...




well I'll just get loans and not pay them when I'm finished with uni



Amerrrriiiicaaaaaaa! FUCK YEAH!

[Fragamemnon]

For someone who is a total financial dumbfuck: isn't it a good time to buy shares now that they hit rock-bottom? I mean they have to bounce back to the last year's level at least, right?

I really wouldn't count on that for at least, say, four or five years.

[TVC15]

I don't think we're near rock bottom yet, Borys.  There are no signs that things have stabilized or even hints that things are beginning to stabilize.  As a matter of fact, indicators from the European banking sector show that the badness could still very well be escalating.  So do indicators from the Nikkei, but the Nikkei is so random and Japan has been in a recession forever, so it is difficult to be able to claim that you can predict the financial wind based on it.