2008 US Elections prediction thread

[Human Snorenado]

Yes, it is time for us to play political Nostradamus.  This way we can see who, 3 1/2 weeks out, was able to survey the political landscape correctly, and who is an idiot teenager from Michigan. 

General predictions first.

-Obama will win the popular vote, getting at least 52%.
-Obama will win at least 350 electoral college votes.
-The Dems will win at least 8 Senate seats and lose none.
-The Dems will net at least 24 House seats.
-Obama will win a state that no one expects him to win right now- like Montana, one of the Dakotas or Georgia.
-The election will get called shortly after 10 pm.  No later than 10:30.

Specific predictions now.

-There will be a wave of violence and vandalism directed towards Obama campaign offices, staffers and volunteers in the closing weeks of the campaign in some contested swing states.
-Someone will yell "n*****" at a McCain-Palin rally before the election, and it will get captured on tape.
-McCain won't raise Obama's "associations" himself at the last debate.  He won't have to.  Old man Schieffer will.
-The troopergate report won't be released to the public.  It might get leaked, tho. Damn, down one already.

[MrAngryFace]

Im actually a bit worried about violence at this point. McCain isn't handling his crowds responsibly

[TakingBackSunday]

I really do fear for Obama's life.  That's awful.

But on one hand, if that's the case, that just means he's THAT important.

[duckman2000]

I can't even begin to imagine what a violent attack on Obama would trigger in this nation of old, suppressed racism.

[Human Snorenado]

I'm not too afraid for Obama's life at this point.  He's got a pretty good security detail.  Angry, dumb idiots aren't very likely to get close to him with a weapon.

His field offices, tho, are another matter entirely.  And we saw some vandalism of those just in the PRIMARIES for fuck's sakes.  Now that McPalin are actively stoking hatred, I wouldn't be surprised to see something start happening within the next week or so.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

- Obama will get somewhere between 360 and 420 Electoral Votes.
- Popular vote will be 51-53 percent
- Democrats will have 59 seats (Coleman will lose to Franken)
- Obama will win in Iowa by 12% of the Popular Vote
- Indiana will go to McCain but Obama will get West Virginia and Florida
- Democrats will get 230-250 seats in the HR
- Sean Hannity will make a sad or angry rant on Fox News, making him a joke to all political affiliations

Predictions in the next week

- McCain will drop the character attacks when he realizes Obama continues to do well in the polls.  His new focus will be one of where he admits his policy errors and has a new plan.  It will stave off the hemorrhaging of his support.
- Obama will win the debate next week.  McCain will try to drop the arrogant attitude but will make a few slips here and there.  Not as bad as the first two.
- Palin gives another fantastically stupid interview that gets laughed at on the internets and SNL.
- Some far right winger will call Obama a distinguished black fellow, with McCain's new plan being sidetracked trying to cover up the racist right.
- McCain rallies get too crazy and violent, which will result in him trying to have damage control, making it seem like McCain hates his own supporters.  This will lose him Montana and maybe North Dakota.

[TakingBackSunday]

- Indiana will go to McCain but Obama will get West Virginia and Florida

That would be fucking incredible.

[CajoleJuice]

- CajoleJuice will continue to not give a shit.

[tiesto]

-Obama will get 53-55% of the popular vote
-Obama will get all Kerry states + Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio
-318 to 220 will be the final score
-Indiana and North Carolina will barely go to McCain (NC being under 10,000 or so people)
-Lots of signs of voters being turned down at the polls, with questionable legality to it
-Youth vote will come up a bit shorter than expected, once again
-Democrats will be 2-3 seats shorts of a majority in the senate
-McCain looks extremely pissed off in his concession speech

[Tauntaun]

- CajoleJuice will continue to not give a shit.

I am so hot for you right now.

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Ron Paul 08  :'( 

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[ShogunOfFear]

Obama will win, McCain will retire, Palin will go to school to be prepped for the next election.

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Ron Paul 08  :'( 

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:'(

[Fragamemnon]

- Obama gets 53% of the popular vote versus McCain's 46.5%, for a margin of 6.5%
- Final electoral count is 383-155. AA and youth turnout is through the roof, just like in the primaries, and the traditional GOP base doesn't turn out.
- Democrats get 60 in the Senate including Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders caucusing with them. Martin in Georgia puts them over the top thanks to Obama AA coattails, and Mitch McConnell just barely keeps his seat.
- House GOP is routed again, Dems gain another 25-27 seats. Notable losses include John Shadegg in Arizona, Culberson in Texas, and both of the Diaz-Balart crooks in Florida. The Nevada GOP delegation also loses both of their seats in contention.

[Ganhyun]

Obama will likely win, but America will still be in shitty shape during his 4 years of presidency.  
Things will get worse during his presidency and people will blame him for it.
Some idiot will try and kill him while he is in office.
With Biden now the VP, the RIAA pushes harder and gets more power to sue 12 yr olds and grandmas.


 

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Ron Paul 08  :'( 

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Tauntaun 08 bitches.  

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Edit: By worse I mean the Economy, etc.

[TVC15]

Obama will likely win, but America will still be in shitty shape during his 4 years of presidency.  
Things will get worse during his presidency and people will blame him for it.

I'm not so sure Obama will take the blame--it's rather evident at the moment that the economic problems are worldwide, so pinning them on one world leader would be kind of naive.  Still, I'm fairly certain he's a one termer.

[Ganhyun]

Obama will likely win, but America will still be in shitty shape during his 4 years of presidency.  
Things will get worse during his presidency and people will blame him for it.

I'm not so sure Obama will take the blame--it's rather evident at the moment that the economic problems are worldwide, so pinning them on one world leader would be kind of naive.  Still, I'm fairly certain he's a one termer.

Yes, while the economic issue is worldwide and grows bigger, most dumbass people will blame Obama and say, "this didnt happen until he became president".



Although in reality there are many to blame for this. Republicans, Democrats, whatever.

But I tell you what, have Morgan Freeman run for president. Everyone loves him.

[brawndolicious]

wasn't the troopergate report supposed to be released today?

[Tristam]

I can't even begin to imagine what a violent attack on Obama would trigger in this nation of old, suppressed racism.

It would set white/black race relations back decades. Not that progress has been particularly impressive anyway.

[Tauntaun]

wasn't the troopergate report supposed to be released today?

They're meeting behind closed doors to review it and decide if it will be released to the public or not.   

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Troopergate will get silenced.  Republicans are viciously fighting to keep it under wraps and with a GOP majority there, the Democrats just don't have the political muscle to work around them.  The best we'd get is possible leaking or interviews with people who worked on the investigation or who saw it.  I'm sure it is pretty damning but with it not coming out, the media will forget all about it, which is the standard fare for the media handling of Sarah Palin.

I also think Obama will be a two termer.  The GOP has taken a big hit and things are not ripe for another 1994.  The GOP today doesn't have the likes of Santorum, Frist, DeLay, Helms, etc.  They're pining their hopes on Bobby Jindal, a fucking joke.  Maybe they will try to push Palin again.  If that is their ace in their sleeves, then they will probably get a worse result in 2012 like they will in 2008.

[brawndolicious]

They're meeting behind closed doors to review it and decide if it will be released to the public or not.   

I'm betting that it'll get leaked and that a few people people from Obama's camp will hype it up.  Hard to say at this point whether it'll gain media traction.  If McCain keeps up the attack ads, possibly.

[Mr. Gundam]

I'll make one prediction right now: Omaha will go to Obama, while the rest of Nebraska will go to McCain.

-McCain looks extremely pissed off in his concession speech

The way things are going, he won't even give a concession speech.

[Phoenix Dark]

-The troopergate report won't be released to the public.  It might get leaked, tho.

Strike one!

[laesperanzapaz]

-The troopergate report won't be released to the public.  It might get leaked, tho.

Strike one!

[Human Snorenado]

-The troopergate report won't be released to the public.  It might get leaked, tho.

Strike one!

Yeah, I'm pretty pleasantly surprised on that count.

[Bocsius]

North Carolina will go +5 for McCain
Hagan will narrowly beat out Dole. 50.3 to 49.7.

[Phoenix Dark]

I'm not predicting anything. An Obama loss would be too depressing, I'm not getting any high expectations. It's been interesting though: I haven't been worried about Obama's chances since the DNC. He has all the momentum, and if the election were held tomorrow he'd win.

If anything I'm truly concerned about Obama's safety. These nuts who use McCain rallies to express their anger don't scare me - I can't help but be concerned about the possibility of a bigger, broader danger. I'm not a conspiracy nut but I certainly don't think JFK was killed by a lone gunman, not even a couple gunman who just wanted to off a president. I've done a good job of not thinking about this stuff though

Lately I've been wondering about Obama's plans for buying tv time on the 29th. I wonder what we'll be talking about at that time. A couple weeks is an eternity in October. Most likely Obama is going to trounce McCain in the economy debate. I think Triumph is right when he says the moderator will probably bring up Ayers. I want McCain to bring it up, just so Obama can forcefully put it to bed, in a presidential manner.

[Fresh Prince]

Obama should win and there will be at least one conspiracy found to assassinate him.

[Beardo]

Obama will win. You guys are dumb asses if you believe there is gonna be some kind of violent uprising of racists. Seriously get your heads out of your asses.

[Human Snorenado]

Obama will win. You guys are dumb asses if you believe there is gonna be some kind of violent uprising of racists. Seriously get your heads out of your asses.

I doubt that there's gonna be a "violent uprising of racists" but since his campaign offices DID get vandalized when he was running against another DEMOCRAT in the primaries, it's no stretch of the imagination to say that similar things will happen.  Hell, bricks were thrown threw the window of the Denver Democratic Party HQ just a couple days ago.  All it's going to take is one dumb motherfucker to spraypaint "distinguished black fellow" onto a campaign office and then the media will freak out and run stories on it, tying it to McCain and Palin egging on crowds.  And they'll be RIGHT to do that.  I could see some people canvassing getting the shit beaten out of them if they're not careful.

[Beardo]

Obama will win. You guys are dumb asses if you believe there is gonna be some kind of violent uprising of racists. Seriously get your heads out of your asses.

I doubt that there's gonna be a "violent uprising of racists" but since his campaign offices DID get vandalized when he was running against another DEMOCRAT in the primaries, it's no stretch of the imagination to say that similar things will happen.  Hell, bricks were thrown threw the window of the Denver Democratic Party HQ just a couple days ago.  All it's going to take is one dumb motherfucker to spraypaint "distinguished black fellow" onto a campaign office and then the media will freak out and run stories on it, tying it to McCain and Palin egging on crowds.  And they'll be RIGHT to do that.  I could see some people canvassing getting the shit beaten out of them if they're not careful.

 

If this election has taught us anything it's that the democrats have just as many racist nuts as republicans. Especially when it comes to former presidents from Arkansas.

[Human Snorenado]

You're making the assumption that it was Democrats or people who would vote for a Democrat that vandalized his offices during the primaries.  And you know what they say about assuming, although in this case I'm pretty sure it's just gonna reflect poorly on you.

[TakingBackSunday]

Obama will win. You guys are dumb asses if you believe there is gonna be some kind of violent uprising of racists. Seriously get your heads out of your asses.

I doubt that there's gonna be a "violent uprising of racists" but since his campaign offices DID get vandalized when he was running against another DEMOCRAT in the primaries, it's no stretch of the imagination to say that similar things will happen.  Hell, bricks were thrown threw the window of the Denver Democratic Party HQ just a couple days ago.  All it's going to take is one dumb motherfucker to spraypaint "distinguished black fellow" onto a campaign office and then the media will freak out and run stories on it, tying it to McCain and Palin egging on crowds.  And they'll be RIGHT to do that.  I could see some people canvassing getting the shit beaten out of them if they're not careful.

 

If this election has taught us anything it's that the democrats have just as many racist nuts as republicans. Especially when it comes to former presidents from Arkansas.

Oh bullshit.

[Van Cruncheon]

Obama will win. You guys are dumb asses if you believe there is gonna be some kind of violent uprising of racists. Seriously get your heads out of your asses.

I doubt that there's gonna be a "violent uprising of racists" but since his campaign offices DID get vandalized when he was running against another DEMOCRAT in the primaries, it's no stretch of the imagination to say that similar things will happen.  Hell, bricks were thrown threw the window of the Denver Democratic Party HQ just a couple days ago.  All it's going to take is one dumb motherfucker to spraypaint "distinguished black fellow" onto a campaign office and then the media will freak out and run stories on it, tying it to McCain and Palin egging on crowds.  And they'll be RIGHT to do that.  I could see some people canvassing getting the shit beaten out of them if they're not careful.

 

If this election has taught us anything it's that the democrats have just as many racist nuts as republicans. Especially when it comes to former presidents from Arkansas.

beardo, are you hurting inside

[Mandark]

The American Spectator breaks stories about Joe Biden receiving lavish gifts from the banking industry and Obama having strong ties to black radicals during his time in the Illinois state legislature.  Both stories are picked up by major media outlets.  The Obama story is debunked after the election; the Biden story is not.

Key Tower in Cleveland is bombed, with more casualties than 9/11 due to the instant collapse.  At a joint McCain-Obama appearance to show unity in the face of terror, a deranged person leaps out of the crowd with a gun, only to be wrestled to the ground by McCain.  In December, the man's identity is found to be that of Phil Parlock.

Russ Feingold dies in a plane crash while visiting troops in Afghanistan.  His funeral, ten days before the election, features partisan eulogies by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.  The GOP acts completely outraged and demands apologies which aren't given.  Sarah Palin says "These people are different from us.  They see life as so pointless, they don't care if their 'friend' died.  They just want more power."  A handheld video of a pissed-off Biden saying "That stupid cunt isn't fit to carry Russ Feingold's jock strap" quickly goes viral.

Obama takes the Kerry states plus New Mexico and Iowa, but minus New Hampshire.  McCain wins the electoral college 278-260.

Democrats pick up three Senate seats and five House seats.  They will lose this many and more in the 2010 midterms for their obstruction of president McCain's foreign policy and judicial nominations.

President: John McCain
Vice President: Sarah Palin
Secretary of Defense: Jack Keane
Secretary of State: Randy Scheunemann
National Security Advisor: Fred Kagan
Secretary of Treasury: Phil Gramm
Secretary of Labor: Carly Fiorina
Attorney General: Rudy Giuliani
Secretary of the Interior: James Inhofe
Secretary of HUD: Eliminated
Secretary of Education: Eliminated

Supreme Court appointees, first term:  Alberto Gonzales, John Yoo, Roy Moore.  Antiabortion laws are restored in 22 states, sodomy laws in 13, and miscegenation laws in five.

Over/under for Iran bombing: October 2010

[huckleberry]

I'll take the under on the Iran bombing.

[TakingBackSunday]

Wtf Mandark lol

[Mandark]

Wtf Mandark lol

In my head I'm already scripting this out through the 2010 midterms and the 2012 presidential election.

[TakingBackSunday]

It's like, Titor-esque predictions.

Tell me, how does time travel work

[Human Snorenado]

Mandark is an optimist, he totally left out the Supreme Court ruling outlawing the Democratic Party in 2011.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Predictions in the next week

- McCain will drop the character attacks when he realizes Obama continues to do well in the polls.  His new focus will be one of where he admits his policy errors and has a new plan.  It will stave off the hemorrhaging of his support.
- Some far right winger will call Obama a distinguished black fellow, with McCain's new plan being sidetracked trying to cover up the racist right.
- McCain rallies get too crazy and violent, which will result in him trying to have damage control, making it seem like McCain hates his own supporters.  This will lose him Montana and maybe North Dakota.

I nailed all these.  Except the Montana and North Dakota part and instead of a distinguished black fellow, he was called an Arab.