On an issue like this, youre either for it or you arent. Commercials can't objectively lay out a pro-con on either side of the fence. It comes down to defending a belief, which most people are decided on already. So Utah spams ads, it isn't going to change minds, if anything it will let people who disagree know that they need to get out and vote.
Its not like a tax plan.
I don't think that's true.
Yeah, it's not a technocratic issue. But people's moral/ethical opinions can be swayed.
What I think is going on is that the Prop 8 people are flooding the discussion with arguments that prey on people's previous biases or give some kind of rhetorical cover for doing what they want to do anyway.
The anti-gay movement is completely weird these days. Unfiltered, explicit homophobia is off the table so they have to make a lot of roundabout arguments in support of policies that have no other purpose other than oppressing and stigmatizing the feygeles.
So they act like gay marriage threatens churches, kids, and free speech because
1) dunces who don't trust homosexuals are apt to believe it
and
2) it gives homophobes an out. They can say "I'm voting for 8. I don't hate gay people or anything like that, but I'm really worried about..."
Sort of the same process where people adopted pretzel logic to oppose the Fair Housing Act and the Equal Rights Amendment (it will mean a ban on single-sex public restrooms!). Most bigots are aware of how ugly their distilled arguments would actually sound to the rest of society.
