#1 Liberal Blogger Says: Obama Will Win Nomination

[Cheebs]

Kos, the biggest liberal blogger out there(and one of the key factors in the uprising of Dean) says Obama will get the nomination. We know Obama is pretty much running and is visiting key primary states and getting staffers. I disagree 100% though that he will win it and I LOOOVE Obama. The internet liberal base gets obsessed with "rockstar" candidates ala Dean/Obama. However, the Democratic primary voters are insanely obsessed with "electability". Meaning Obama(nor Hillary) will get the nom'. This is John Edwards race to lose right now. The primary calender is set up JUST for him. He is leading right now in Iowa, the first primary state. The second is Nevada where has the unions officially backing him and in Nevada Primaries the unions more or less control who wins. Next is New Hampshire, he may lose that but then next is South Carolina. His home and he won that in 2004 and he is far better positioned for '08 than he was in '04. By then he'll have 3/4 states and it will be all over.

Here is what Kos said about Obama:

Standard caveats aside (it's early, we don't have a set field, blah blah blah), it's hard to see how Barack Obama loses the nomination barring scandal or the mother-of-all gaffes.

I've been working up a few scenarios given the primary calendar (which isn't set in stone, with states like California looking to move up), and really, it would be Obama's race to lose.

Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will win it (getting no boost out of it), the race for second-place will determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama. A 2-3 finish for these guys, in any order, leaves them in good shape moving forward.

Nevada will be a battle between Edwards and his union allies, and Richardson and his southwestern and Latino base. New Hampshire will be fertile territory for Hillary and maybe Kerry (they hate Richardson because he pushed to insert Nevada into the calendar ahead of New Hampshire). And then South Carolina. With Iowa out of the big picture thanks to Vilsack, and New Hampshire diluted by Nevada, South Carolina may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the state (I'm not sure how), and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the dwindling white male vote, can overcome those hurdles.

There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise -- an Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don't see a way anyone stops him.

Again, we don't know what the final field will look like, so things can dramatically change. But an entrance into the race would make Obama the prohibitive favorite. If politics is about seizing opportunities, it would seem a no-brainer for him to enter the race now.

What's more, Obama would then be tough to beat in the general. He would very well be the favorite in that race, even against a McCain, and would probably be a net positive for Democrats running down the ballot. So it wouldn't be a terrible thing by any means.

[Diablos]

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[Phoenix Dark]

Just like he did with Dean and Lamont? Way to spin the issue Cheebs
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=132498

 

[Cheebs]

I see no reason to get excited about this right now. Anything could happen between now and November of 2008. This analysis could be dead wrong.

You  mean Jan. 2008. Little more than a year away. That is when primaries happen. Due to the openness of this primary the election should be full force out there advertising around this spring.

Just like he did with Dean and Lamont? Way to spin the issue Cheebs
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=132498

 

Huh? I dont think Kos is correct on his view of Obama. Kos is foolish and his site's obsession with Lamont was eerie. I feel Obama won't make it. I agree with Evil Pope. Did you read what I said? I said this is Edward's race to lose, not Obama's.

[ToxicAdam]

I love my new avatar. Very creepy, evil republican feel.


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I was really disappointed when I saw Kos say Obama is going to win. He really is the kiss of death. If I was a Democrat, I would pay him to support other people.

[Diablos]

I see no reason to get excited about this right now. Anything could happen between now and November of 2008. This analysis could be dead wrong.

You  mean Jan. 2008. Little more than a year away. That is when primaries happen. Due to the openness of this primary the election should be full force out there advertising around this spring.

Yeah but I'm referring to the general mood. In mid/late 2008 when everything's been decided and people just have to vote for one person or the other, I think we're going to laugh at a lot of the speculation made.

[Phoenix Dark]

You're wrong about Edwards too. Nothing is his to lose.

[Cheebs]

I was really disappointed when I saw Kos say Obama is going to win. He really is the kiss of death. If I was a Democrat, I would pay him to support other people.

Agreed. I always feel alone as a democrat on the internet. I was strongly against trying to kick out Lieberman in the primaries in '06 and I was never a Dean backer in '03. 

[Phoenix Dark]

I was really disappointed when I saw Kos say Obama is going to win. He really is the kiss of death. If I was a Democrat, I would pay him to support other people.

Agreed. I always feel alone as a democrat on the internet. I was strongly against trying to kick out Lieberman in the primaries in '06 and I was never a Dean backer in '03. 

You sound like me. Except I still believe McCain would be a good president

I'll take him over Hillary anyday

[Cheebs]

I was really disappointed when I saw Kos say Obama is going to win. He really is the kiss of death. If I was a Democrat, I would pay him to support other people.

Agreed. I always feel alone as a democrat on the internet. I was strongly against trying to kick out Lieberman in the primaries in '06 and I was never a Dean backer in '03. 

You sound like me. Except I still believe McCain would be a good president

I'll take him over Hillary anyday

McCain was good in 2000. He wen't from being pro-choice and against prayer in school to being pro-life, pro-prayer in school. And he now calls for MORE troops in Iraq. He is Bush 2.0 now.
I can't trust someone who will change their mind on ANY issue just to win something. He has no stance he holds to.

[Diablos]

I have no trust in John McCain anymore. Shame. I liked him in 2000.

[Human Snorenado]

Yeah, I dunno about Obama.  My personal feeling is that people who really, really WANT to be POTUS probably shouldn't, and Obama fits in that category.  Sure he's likable and gives great speeches, but he really doesn't have much of a record to run on and if he's serious about running, won't be amassing one in the next year or so.  Plus, he's wishy washy about really getting behind progressive causes.  Dude's basically done nothing but amass all this personal political capital, and doesn't ever spend it on anything. 

Honestly, though, I don't like ANY of the prospective 2008 candidates right now.  After Feingold said he wasn't gonna run I pretty much resigned myself to voting for Nader again.

[Cheebs]

I have no trust in John McCain anymore. Shame. I liked him in 2000.

Yep, yep. Great man but  to give the office of PRESIDENT to someone who will change his mind on ANY issue to get that job is just too much for me.

I expect him to revert right back to the "straight talk express" if he gets the nomination knowing he has the GOP locked up.

[Phoenix Dark]

Yeah, I dunno about Obama.  My personal feeling is that people who really, really WANT to be POTUS probably shouldn't, and Obama fits in that category.  Sure he's likable and gives great speeches, but he really doesn't have much of a record to run on and if he's serious about running, won't be amassing one in the next year or so.  Plus, he's wishy washy about really getting behind progressive causes.  Dude's basically done nothing but amass all this personal political capital, and doesn't ever spend it on anything. 

Honestly, though, I don't like ANY of the prospective 2008 candidates right now.  After Feingold said he wasn't gonna run I pretty much resigned myself to voting for Nader again.

I agree. He's done nothing in the Senate and people already want him to run for president. A candidate with no foreign policy experience isn't going to fly in the post 911 America, unless of course they have a good VP. This is going to be Obama and Edward's biggest problem outside of Hillary (who's already using resourses to dig up dirt on Obama).

[Cheebs]

Obama would do best to be the VP. He can't win ever if he stays in the senate. The senate KILLS candidates due to the massive voting they do. Being VP would give him the years + the experience to eventually get the nomination without the baggage of the senate.

[Diablos]

Anyway, Evan Bayh is awesome. He's basically another John Edwards. Which is good. I think Edwards himself might run into some problems... Republicans will just bring up that he was going to be Vice President. Then all they have to do is bring up how inconsistent they told everyone Kerry was, and tie it to Edwards. If Edwards says his ideas differ from John Kerry's, then it'll make people say he took the VP nomination as a career move above anything else, I would think.

[Cheebs]

Anyway, Evan Bayh is awesome. He's basically another John Edwards. Which is good. I think Edwards himself might run into some problems... Republicans will just bring up that he was going to be Vice President. Then all they have to do is bring up how inconsistent they told everyone Kerry was, and tie it to Edwards. If Edwards says his ideas differ from John Kerry's, then it'll make people say he took the VP nomination as a career move above anything else, I would think.

Evan Bayh is great on paper but he has no charisma, he is John Kerry in how he talks.

Keep an eye on Bill Richardson. A Governor who is very helped by the primary schedule and he can raise a lot of money quickly. And he has the minority factor like Obama but it is much less "controversial" seeing how he is Hispanic rather than black.

[Diablos]

Evan Bayh has far more charisma than John Kerry.



I can't see Richardson as President.

[Phoenix Dark]

Obama would do best to be the VP. He can't win ever if he stays in the senate. The senate KILLS candidates due to the massive voting they do. Being VP would give him the years + the experience to eventually get the nomination without the baggage of the senate.

Being in the Senate for two terms isn't going to kill him. I want to see Obama win a competitive race now that he's on the national scene. Beating Alan Keyes certainly isn't an impressive feat. Lets see how he deals with adversity on a large scale before appointing him to the largest scale of all

[Diablos]

Would you vote for Obama, PD?

[Cheebs]

Obama would do best to be the VP. He can't win ever if he stays in the senate. The senate KILLS candidates due to the massive voting they do. Being VP would give him the years + the experience to eventually get the nomination without the baggage of the senate.

Being in the Senate for two terms isn't going to kill him. I want to see Obama win a competitive race now that he's on the national scene. Beating Alan Keyes certainly isn't an impressive feat. Lets see how he deals with adversity on a large scale before appointing him to the largest scale of all

2004 primaries. He was a distant third and pulled a upset.

[Phoenix Dark]

Obama would do best to be the VP. He can't win ever if he stays in the senate. The senate KILLS candidates due to the massive voting they do. Being VP would give him the years + the experience to eventually get the nomination without the baggage of the senate.

Being in the Senate for two terms isn't going to kill him. I want to see Obama win a competitive race now that he's on the national scene. Beating Alan Keyes certainly isn't an impressive feat. Lets see how he deals with adversity on a large scale before appointing him to the largest scale of all

2004 primaries. He was a distant third and pulled a upset.

That was a primary, and at the time he was not on any sort of national spotlight. Lets see him win a tough race with everyone watching for him to fuck up, say something crazy, have a cocaine relapse, whatever

[Cheebs]

Obama would do best to be the VP. He can't win ever if he stays in the senate. The senate KILLS candidates due to the massive voting they do. Being VP would give him the years + the experience to eventually get the nomination without the baggage of the senate.

Being in the Senate for two terms isn't going to kill him. I want to see Obama win a competitive race now that he's on the national scene. Beating Alan Keyes certainly isn't an impressive feat. Lets see how he deals with adversity on a large scale before appointing him to the largest scale of all

2004 primaries. He was a distant third and pulled a upset.

That was a primary, and at the time he was not on any sort of national spotlight. Lets see him win a tough race with everyone watching for him to fuck up, say something crazy, have a cocaine relapse, whatever

I doubt he'll pull a macaca. If there is anything he is perfect at, it is speaking.

I do wonder if his stance with various african americans in the Democratic party will hurt him. He is far from aligned or friends with the Jackson/Sharpton types.

[Phoenix Dark]

There's more dangerous ways to fuck up while speaking without saying a racial slur. IE John Kerry, who meant well but...just...fucked...up

I find it hilarious that liberals pride themselves in pointing out the problems the (discrimination/civil/etc) US has but then turns around   and declares a black man will be the next president of the United States. What the hell Kos

[Cheebs]

The thing about Obama is if any black guy could win it is him(not in 08 mind you). He isn't a "african american" He is Kenyan. He isn't from that post-slavery african american world. Nor is he of the Jackson/Sharpton mindset. He is a "non-threatening" black if you will.

[Loki]

Yeah, I dunno about Obama.  My personal feeling is that people who really, really WANT to be POTUS probably shouldn't

Reminds me of a quote I heard one time which I tend to agree with.  Something along the lines of, "the sort of people who should be leading us are not the type to seek power."

[Cheebs]

Yeah, I dunno about Obama.  My personal feeling is that people who really, really WANT to be POTUS probably shouldn't

Reminds me of a quote I heard one time which I tend to agree with.  Something along the lines of, "the sort of people who should be leading us are not the type to seek power."

Well W. Bush more or less fell into the white house. Jeb was the chosen one to further the family name and to this day H.W. Bush far favors Jeb. When Jeb lost the governership in '94 it fell onto W. to take the mantle. He got in by pure luck of family politicking.

[Phoenix Dark]

The thing about Obama is if any black guy could win it is him(not in 08 mind you). He isn't a "african american" He is Kenyan. He isn't from that post-slavery african american world. Nor is he of the Jackson/Sharpton mindset. He is a "non-threatening" black if you will.

There is no such thing, and I don't think you understand that at all. When he walks into a room, people don't see a "Kenyan" or a "non-Jackson" - they see a black man. Being mixed doesn't even matter.

That automatically will lose him millions of votes, whether people like him or not. He's a great speaker and I'm sure many find him entertaining, but they won't feel the same way when he starts sniffing for the highest office in the land.

[Bacon]

Obama or Clinton = automatic Dem loss

[Phoenix Dark]

Obama or Clinton = automatic Dem loss

Thank you

[Cheebs]

If Hillary is the nominee I will hold my nose and vote McCain. Then I will cry for a few days.

[Human Snorenado]

If Hillary is the nominee I will hold my nose and vote McCain. Then I will cry for a few days.

It's better over here, Cheebs.  No crying needed!

[Bloodwake]

If Hillary is the nominee I will hold my nose and vote McCain. Then I will cry for a few days.

Ditto.

It will hurt, but it has to be done.

[Cheebs]

If Hillary is the nominee I will hold my nose and vote McCain. Then I will cry for a few days.

(Image removed from quote.)

It's better over here, Cheebs.  No crying needed!

I love nader but I don't want to throw away a vote.

[Human Snorenado]

If Hillary is the nominee I will hold my nose and vote McCain. Then I will cry for a few days.

(Image removed from quote.)

It's better over here, Cheebs.  No crying needed!

I love nader but I don't want to throw away a vote.

So you'd rather throw your vote away on a guy whose ideology you don't really agree with?  I'll never understand this mindset.  Le sigh.

[Cheebs]

If Hillary is the nominee I will hold my nose and vote McCain. Then I will cry for a few days.

(Image removed from quote.)

It's better over here, Cheebs.  No crying needed!

I love nader but I don't want to throw away a vote.

So you'd rather throw your vote away on a guy whose ideology you don't really agree with?  I'll never understand this mindset.  Le sigh.

My reason is simple. If just a FRACTION a fraction!! of nader voters in FL voted Gore in  2000(and they would have if Nader was not on the ballot, easily the small required amount) we'd have a different president.


Also I'd vote McCain over hillary because I LIKE hillary but her as president would be just as polarizing if not more than Bush, it would set back the Democratic party decades.

[Cheebs]

Well, DailyKos(as stated the biggest democrat site on the web) put up the first real post electon 2006 straw poll up. Edwards is winning with 2,252 votes closely followed by Obama with 2,050. Poll has only been up for an hour or so too...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/12/6/114644/671

[Phoenix Dark]

Stop pimping internet polls Cheebs. Makes you look stupid

[Cheebs]

Stop pimping internet polls Cheebs. Makes you look stupid

I hate kos yet I read it daily. I am a confused man

[Diablos]

If Hillary is the nominee I will hold my nose and vote McCain. Then I will cry for a few days.

Why? Why on earth would you do this? You'd rather give your vote to the GOP, and McCain, who has been extremely inconsistent from everything to tax breaks (which will affect you), religion, and abortion? You'd rather give your vote to a guy who wants to send more troops into Iraq to get killed? Anyone who seriously thinks we can do anything better than putting band-aids over the clusterfuck of a mess that is Iraq is at the very least slightly distinguished mentally-challenged.

Also, we don't even know if McCain and/or Hillary will make it. Don't make up your mind just yet.

[Cheebs]

You know, I say that now but if she gets it by the time the national convention hits I'll probably have an avatar of her and constantly pimping her out.

[Diablos]

EXACTLY. Stop letting the other side scare you into thinking "omg she will never win". Or ANY candidate. Don't let people get in your head. Pundits don't know shit.

That's the problem with some Democratic voters. It often seems they're too unwilling to just take a stand and support someone, and therefore a considerable amount stay home. Whereas the Republican voters seem to see the bigger picture on their side of things and vote with the party when it counts the most. People said damn near every negative thing you could possibly think of about W. in 2004 that was within the limits of the law, but Republicans still held onto their passion and took it all the way to the polls. Democrats need to start doing that if they want to see one actually make it back into the White House.

[Cheebs]

I did not like kerry winning at all in the primaries and was bitter about it. By october 2004 I bought a documentary about him that was pure propaganda and I bought his book and read it.

Don't worry, I am easily brought back into the fold. Almost too easily.

[Diablos]

Indeed, when I saw the breaking news that Kerry was chosen, I was extremely disappointed and didn't know if he would make it. But I realized he would still be better than George W. Bush. People have to see it beyond that figurehead, but also who he'll be working with and most importantly, what he and those other people would have done. Sure, Kerry blabs on like a douche, but I just want some kind of sound foreign policy and a lot of social issues resolved here. Kerry was my best shot at seeing some of that happening. It's dumb to not vote and let the other guy (who doesn't even come remotely close to matching your views and ideals) laugh all the way back to the White House for another term. Or, even worse, VOTE for that other guy just because more people seem to like him. Start thinking about how politics affects you, this isn't Political Idol. Not directing this at you, just making a general statement here.

[Lonestar]

  "Holding your nose to vote" for McCain over Hillary if she were the nominee. 


 

[Lonestar]

And all this speculation bullshit is really beginning to piss me off.  It permeates every newscast and MSNBC has seemingly entered Obama Vs Clinton phase for god knows how long.  FWIW, John Kerry was in the low single digits, even behind Joe Lieberman, in Dec 03 poll of Iowa caucus voters.  Then he managed to win by about 15%.  So all this nonsense of a certain candidate having things wrapped up is plain and simple horseshit; don't let the media pick for you.  They want their horses for ratings, is all. 

[Diablos]

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[Cheebs]

Like I said when time comes I'll vote Clinton. What I say now is mostly nonsense. I am party loyal.

I am apparently a DC insider type of party person. I'd vote Lieberman if I was in CT in '06(in the primary, general I'd go with the nominee Lamont).

[Lonestar]

Why would you have voted for Lieberman in the primary? 

[Cheebs]

Because Lieberman was liberal on all other issues other than Iraq and I KNEW he would win the general as a a independent. It is foolish to attack members of your own party while trying to reclaim majority especially when all it would do it lead to a independent winning.