Hakan just has so much shit working against him. Bad, low priority pokes (although standing FP and standing MP are decent even without oil), no applicable footsies at all, difficult ground strings that are a DP masher's dream come true, bad air-to-air, low damage relative to the other grapplers, no anti-air without an Ultra stock (but ultra2 is untouchable anti-air once you get it), no good reversal for wake-up. All of his command normals other than forward + LP/LK are punishable on block without oil. Terrible range on his command grab without oil.
Getting lubed up and staying lubed up is a challenge on its own. Only the light kick variation is at all practical, and then it only lasts a few seconds so you're continuously in need of finding moments to stack them. The HK version is absolutely useless --even after a FP command grab, practically every single character has something they can wake-up and hit him with before the animation completes. MK version seems to be the one to use after a command grab, but even that's a close call. The EX version SEEMS practical, but the animation is so long that you can only do it through fireballs at full screen; unlikely unless your opponent doesn't understand the match-up.
It's probably still too early to call for him just because he's so different, but to me he seems destined for the new bottom "Hakan shit tier". Even Dan's got less of a struggle.
