The NBA thread

[Nola]

On a personal note, and it doesn't really change much of the historical parallels you are making, Lebron has had some serious GOAT tier performances, but I have always hated the use of TS% when analyzing performances outside of the modern era. Since the enormous value emphasis shift on the three point shot, which is reflected in the weight of the statistic, makes it a bit of an unfair marker to judge past performances with.

The fact Jordan had a 60% TS% in 1991 taking 2 3 point shots a game is actually insanely impressive considering the context of the era. While Lebron was basically averaging as many 3PA's as the entire Bulls team was averaging over it's season: 5.8 vs 6.

[benjipwns]

You might be thinking more about eFG% than TS%. TS generally more evens out the efficiencies from shooting only at the hoop (all-time leader DeAndre Jordan), racking up FT's you're automatic at (Adrian Dantley), bombing in threes (Reggie Miller), doing purely the latter two (Chauncey Billups), for example. Stephen Curry is the only guy in the top seven NBA leaders in TS to take more than 40 three point attempts in their whole career. Reggie Miller is next, then it's Chuck and then Durant.

LeBron's career 58.6% TS vs. Jordan's career 56.9% isn't purely from threes, LeBron has surpassed Jordan in general FG% too now. Where LeBron most benefits off threes is that his superior three point making (Jordan never was a good three point shooter when the line was longer except for short periods) makes up for his inferior FT%.

Since LeBron went to Miami and came back, his FG% is 53.4%. Taking Jordan's seven best seasons, his FG% is 51.8%. LeBron's taken and made twice as many threes at 36% vs. Jordan over those years hitting 35% (most of which come from two seasons, one of which, plus his 17 game comeback, being at the shorter line) but that generally evens out the fact that LeBron has taken one less FT a game while making two fewer since he shot 74% vs. Jordan's 84%. It's the FG% that separates them more now.

Where TS% probably most underrates is players who didn't even have the three point line. It also really hurts their points. I saw a blog post where someone gave Jerry West, Pete Maravich and Rick Barry hypothetical 3PT shots that weren't even like Miller/Allen/etc. levels and it could add up to five points a game to their averages. Not to mention anecdotal evidence about how often they shot from out there but only got two points for it.

Even without it, the relative performance of some of those guys was pretty impressive even if they never could hit the 60% range without, Big O:

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1960-61 NBA .555 (1st)
1961-62 NBA .554 (2nd)
1962-63 NBA .588 (2nd)
1963-64 NBA .576 (2nd)
1964-65 NBA .561 (3rd)
1965-66 NBA .563 (2nd)
1966-67 NBA .583 (2nd)
1967-68 NBA .588 (2nd)
1968-69 NBA .579 (2nd)
1969-70 NBA .577 (3rd)
1970-71 NBA .563 (7th)West:

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1961-62 NBA .524 (8th)
1963-64 NBA .561 (4th)
1964-65 NBA .572 (2nd)
1965-66 NBA .573 (1st)
1966-67 NBA .559 (4th)
1967-68 NBA .590 (1st)
1968-69 NBA .557 (6th)
1969-70 NBA .572 (6th)
1970-71 NBA .571 (5th)
Rick Barry has the advantage of the seasons he played in the ABA giving us a peak at the possibilities even though he took 1.5 a game at 28%:

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1968-69 ABA .616 (1st)
1969-70 ABA .582 (1st)At 35, his final season, he took 3 a game and hit 33% in the NBA's first season with the line.

for comparison, LeBron and Jordan and Curry:

spoiler (click to show/hide)

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2011-12 NBA .605 (9th)
2012-13 NBA .640 (3rd)
2013-14 NBA .649 (2nd)
Active .586 (10th)
Career NBA .586 (37th)

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1988-89 NBA .614 (6th)
Career NBA .569 (88th)

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2013-14 NBA .610 (6th)
2014-15 NBA .638 (4th)
2015-16 NBA .669 (1st)
2016-17 NBA .624 (10th)
2017-18 NBA .675 (1st)
Active .621 (3rd)
Career NBA .621 (5th)
Tyson Chandler:

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2006-07 NBA .620 (4th)
2007-08 NBA .632 (5th)
2010-11 NBA .697 (1st)
2011-12 NBA .708 (1st)
2012-13 NBA .671 (1st)
2014-15 NBA .697 (2nd)
Active .625 (2nd)
Career NBA .625 (4th)

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[benjipwns]

Speaking of playoff runs and TS%, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention James Donaldson in 1986.

He had a TS of 83% over ten games. 410 minutes! 9.6 ppg!

The Birdman in 2013 out did him by shooting 81% from the floor vs. Donaldson's disgustingly poor 75% FG%. But Donaldson was the better FT man, so Andersen only finished with a 82% TS over the 20 games the Heat took to win the title.

[Nola]

IMO both of them have their shortcomings in general and when measuring across eras, EFG% definitely more so. I honestly don't really look at EFG% much.

But where you are going into the weeds gets closer to why I have personally shied away from really having GOAT discussions anymore.

On the pro-Jordan GOAT side I could say if you "modernized Jordan's game" to give him a more fair shake in these metrics, and take Jordan's ~22FGA and shot selection per game and instead of coaching him to shoot 22 of them inside the arc, shift 3-4 more of those on his 38% playoff 3P percentages across the 90-93 seasons and a few less of his long mid range jumpers into attacking the basket - where he was more efficient -  his TS% likely looks even better. Straight insane. But the anti-Jordan side could point to the way the rules are different now, how defenses are more complex, look at the teams in which Jordan had and what a player like Lebron has done with less, and the overall efficiency of Lebron over Jordan especially when you include the assists. And the pro-Jordan side can come back and argue how the neutering of the big man and the lack of hand-checking has made it even easier for games like Lebron's to thrive. On and on and on.



When you drill down into it, at least when I have, you get lost and end up arguing any number of side issues into oblivion and never settling on anything.

[benjipwns]

i long ago transitioned to only really considering players against their era, and for cross-era it being like something resembling "he dominated his era more in x, y and z"

i mean even something as simple as Wilt and Russell having to fly commercial, playing back-to-back-to-backs regularly, "put ice on it" solutions, high level racism, etc. versus having chartered jets designed for tall men, modern medicine, modern 24/7 coaching/development resources, the whole infrastructure for players lives, etc.

[benjipwns]

i think it might have been Elgin Baylor, who had he had his first, less serious, knee injury five years later, doctors would have done something completely different and it would have cut in half the chances of his second knee injury that started his decline and caused his third fatal-to-his-career knee injury (which left him with like no cartilage in either knee) that led to him retiring just before the Lakers won 33 straight and the title finally

not to mention just a couple years earlier in his career when he had to miss half the season to hang out around army barracks doing who knows what that probably wasn't very "pro-career"

[Stoney Mason]

Zache Lowe article on the OKC situation with Westbrook

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23364202/zach-lowe-russell-westbrook-oklahoma-city-thunder-nba


Vegas odds for teams making the finals.

Eastern Conference

Code: [Select]

Team                      Odds
Philadelphia 76ers        6/5
Toronto Raptors                8/5
Cleveland Cavaliers       17/4
Boston Celtics                18/1

Western Conference

Code: [Select]

Team                     Odds
Golden State Warriors       5/8
Houston Rockets             5/4
New Orleans Pelicans    51/1
Utah Jazz            51/1


[Stoney Mason]

Should be a brutal slugfest of a series. Boston is completely outmanned talent wise but they play hellacious annoying defense and Stevens is great. I'll say 76ers in 6 or 7.

I was 6-2 in that first round. Missed on Portland and Utah. 

[Stoney Mason]

Now Marcus Smart looks like he re-injured that thumb after a great Celtics first half  :'(

[Stoney Mason]

Not a rookie chant at Ben Simmons

 

[Stoney Mason]

I can't emphasize enough how nuts what the Celtics do is. They are truly the new Spurs.

[Stoney Mason]

He's a rookie chant for Tatum. Crowd is at maximum troll levels.

[Nola]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MicahAdams13/status/991155371514499072

 

[etiolate]

https://twitter.com/swish41/status/991349838221598721

Dirk

[Stoney Mason]

I'm actually gonna pick the Raptors in 6 or 7 in this one. Not that the Cavs can't win. I just don't think Lebron can keep up this pace with this workload, and the raptors have so many looks and bodies they can throw at the Cavs.

[El Babua]

This is the worst clock management/timeout usage I've seen down the stretch in a playoff game.

Playoff Raps have arrived

[Akala]

Has been an entertaining stretch.

Hopefully pels hang a bit better tonight.

[benjipwns]

you just can't rely on drake to come through in the playoffs, they need to think about acquiring a different sideline rapper

[benjipwns]

Detroit Pistons owner Tom Gores wants Stan Van Gundy to return as coach for the final year of his contract, but would prefer for that scenario to include structural changes to the franchise's front office, league sources told ESPN.
...
Bower -- whom Van Gundy hired and trusts to run the day-to-day operations of his front office -- is set to meet separately with Gores this week, league sources said.

Bower is in the final year of his contract.

Van Gundy has one year and $7 million left on his original five-year deal, but most of his front office and coaching staff are in the final year of their contracts.

Atlanta, this is how you fire the guy you stupidly made your GM/Coach with $$$ left on his deal, you figured out the "first take away one job, then isolate him" part well enough but blew your wad too soon even though the team will still be garbage anyway

[agrajag]

Herculean effort by Lebron and co. to pull this one out.

[etiolate]

y u do this toronto

[Stoney Mason]

Raptors are such a weird team. They have too much talent to just absolutely suck balls on offense for such long stretches. That loss is on them. Cleveland gave them plenty of opportunities to win it.

[agrajag]

Lowry just isn't that good imo. Cleveland don't have a decent point guard either, but you don't need one with Lebron

[Nola]

Man, Solomon Hill shouldn't even be getting minutes on a non tanking team.....We are paying him 12.5 million a year to brick wide open shots and play average defense.

[benjipwns]

Cavs had only five turnovers, three of which were LeBron and Love's, who combined to Westbrick at 15/43 including 2/12 from three, and LeBron went 1/6 at the line...but the rest of the team shot 12/21 from three and 14/15 at the line

[Nola]

Need to clean up the rotations on defense and not let ourselves try and match their threes with our threes.

But other than that, we are playing in a way that we still have a punchers chance, which is about the ceiling I had for any game in Golden State.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Helps the officiating has been even-handed tonight 

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[etiolate]

So hilarious seeing Warrior fans act astonished that someone would want to punch Dray.

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/anthonyVslater/status/991556757745881088

[benjipwns]

Chuck's obviously got to throw him through a plate glass window now.

[benjipwns]

Also that had looked like a Rondo Warning™ to me. A punch in the face is the least of your worries Draymond, family members need to be moved to secure locations.

[Stoney Mason]

Jazz

 

[Stoney Mason]

Rockets play in such a bitchy manner. So hard to enjoy them.

[Stoney Mason]

That being said when they turn it on, they turn it on.

[Stoney Mason]

Nice Jazz win. I'm glad the rocket's flopping bullshit wasn't rewarded this game.

[etiolate]

FT attempts pretty even. Jazz bench way outscored the Rockets bench.

[Brehvolution]

That Donovan Mitchell put back dunk. 

[Stoney Mason]

Damn it. Knicks hired real coach instead of some of the joke candidates that would have been trainwreck funny.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23396895/david-fizdale-agrees-deal-become-new-york-knicks-head-coach

[agrajag]

Lebron is an animal

[Stoney Mason]

Raptors

[Stoney Mason]

Jesus Christ those two Lebron fadeaways

[Stoney Mason]

That was a snatch your soul game from Toronto.

[Stoney Mason]

Furious rally by the Celtics there

[agrajag]

man Boston is good. And without their two starters

[Stoney Mason]

Simmons has been bad tonight

[Stoney Mason]

Another impressive Celtics win

[Stoney Mason]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nbacirclejerk/comments/8gwcdk/historic_night_for_simmons/?st=jgrlm1ec&sh=899ccd52

savage

[seagrams hotsauce]

let's talk about how bron might wind up on the sixers pls

[Brehvolution]

Those Lebron fadeaways are just filthy. 

[Stoney Mason]

Random thoughs


Terry Rozier Playoff averages

19 pts. 7 ast  1.4 turnovers 44% from 3.  Per 22.50

Ridiculous and nuts that the Celtics can just manufacture this kind of performance and player. And when you use the eye test he looks god damn good too.



There was another swooping layup he did past Embiid that was gorgeous last night.


Just a few days ago.

Vegas odds for teams making the finals.

Eastern Conference

Code: [Select]

Team                      Odds
Philadelphia 76ers        6/5
Toronto Raptors                8/5
Cleveland Cavaliers       17/4
Boston Celtics                18/1

Now

Code: [Select]

Team                         Odds
Cleveland Cavaliers          5/4
Boston Celtics                  5/2
Philadelphia 76ers          5/2
Toronto Raptors                 10/1

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/5/4/17317118/houston-rockets-james-harden-chris-paul-style-playoffs

You know I decided pretty early on in the season that I would root for the Rockets when they inevitably matched up against the Warriors in what are the real nba finals. But I just don't think I can do it. I mean the Warriors are a dynasty so dominant they have stomped out the competitive fires of the nba but they play basketball in an aesthetically pleasing manner I enjoy to watch. The Rockets are just not fun for me in that way. And that last game against the Jazz solidified it. They play basketball in a way that amps up everything statistically smart to do. And I totally get that and respect that. I just can't stand all the flopping and faking and the way its consistently rewarded by the refs.

It reminds me of the rip thru move. The rip thru move back in the day was this smart thing that smart offensive players occasionally did to school a less aware defensive player. You saw it occasionally and you felt good because it was like a smart player being rewarded for gaming the system in a way. But then everybody started doing it and the good players got so good at it, that it became super annoying to watch because it doesn't feel like how basketball should be played all the time. The Rockets are like that. They are the scientifically engineered version of the rip through move used dozens and dozens of times in a game. It's smart. They are good. They have pioneered a new way to play basketball that is super viable. It just doesn't motivate me to root for them. I'd rather watch everybody else left in the playoffs than them and it makes me hate watch them and root for the Jazz even though the Jazz have no realistic shot at the Warriors compared to the rockets imo.

[Stoney Mason]

Pelicans putting it on. I think most people kind of thought the Warriors would come in and just finish up the sweep.

[etiolate]

JRue the third best guard in these playoffs? 2nd if you demote Curry for missing the first series? Or is Mitchell third?

[Akala]

Fuuuuuuck yaaaaaaaa

[bluemax]

The Raptors are looking like the Clippers. They should probably just blow the team up now instead of going through the motions for 2 more seasons like the Clippers did.

[Let's Cyber]

Rajon

I wish they could just trade Rondo to whatever team is playing Golden State the rest of the playoffs so he can haunt them like some kind of vengeful specter. Pulling for you, NOLA.

[Stoney Mason]

Good shot to send it to OT

[Stoney Mason]

lol premature confetti

[Stoney Mason]

nice steal for Horford. Boston 3-0. Surprising.

[etiolate]

Despite of all the injuries and trades, it's still going to be Boston v Cleveland in the ECF.

West playoffs remain far more interesting. And I offer this debate: Would you take any of the four current Western teams over Cavs or Boston?

[Nola]

Just saw an alert that Kerr is/was apparently whining about Rondo being a dirty player. lol... I guess a 85 to 32 FT discrepancy in your favor isn’t a comfortable enough spotting by the refs.


Also  at a team trying to whine about on the court behavior with Draymond “The Groin Goon” on your roster.

[benjipwns]

he learned from the best
https://twitter.com/philjackson11/status/317031514011496449

spoiler (click to show/hide)

with some notable exceptions
https://twitter.com/philjackson11/status/597453125297917953

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